Baltimore -1 and Green Bay -2 3 units
I like both big favorites a lot this week so it seemed like a no brainer to tease them both down to near even in a big value teaser.
2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Pick
For analysis on Seattle click here
For analysis on Washington click here
Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami, as well as close calls against Carolina and Chicago, all 6 of whom missed the playoffs. The Seahawks are just 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2005 and I like that Washington may feel slighted that no one is really talking about them to win this game. I think Seattle has a better chance to win this game, but I’m going to grab the 3 points for a small play. It would have to be all the way past the key line of 4 for me to play a significant play on the Redskins though.
Seattle Seahawks 20 Washington Redskins 19
Pick against spread: Washington +3 (-110) 2 units
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Pick
For analysis on Indianapolis click here
For analysis on Baltimore click here
The public is all over the dog on this one and it’s not just the public. I can’t tell you how many media people I’ve seen make the Colts their upset pick. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, whenever everyone is predicting the same upset, it rarely upsets and it’s always good to bet on a slighted favorite. The Colts are overrated as they have just 3 wins against .500 or better teams and 2 total wins by more than a touchdown.
They’re even worse on the road where they are 4-4, including 4 double digit losses and 3 by 20 or more. I think they get their 5th double digit loss here in Baltimore against a very good Ravens team at home. They’re just 2 losses removed from a 16 game home winning streak. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play because, of those 16 wins, 9 have come by a touchdown or less. I really like having to only lay 7 with the Ravens rather than the 9 I would have earlier in the week. All the action on Indianapolis has really brought the line down. It’s at 6.5 in some places.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Indianapolis Colts 17
Pick against spread: Baltimore -7 (-110) 3 units
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Wild Card Round Pick
For analysis on Minnesota click here
For analysis on Green Bay click here
The Vikings beat the Packers just last week so they will definitely hang within 8 of the Packers this week right? Well, that seems to be what everything thinks as the public is all over the Vikings. However, as is frequently the case when the public likes a dog, I expect them to be wrong. The Vikings are a completely different team on the road, especially outside. They are 7-1 at home, but 3-5 on the road, including 0-4 outside (making them 10-2 inside and 0-4 outside this season). In those 4 outside losses, Christian Ponder is 80 of 142 for 693 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
The Vikings lost by 9 in Green Bay earlier this season, despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson. He might do that again, but there’s also a very good chance he won’t and I think the Vikings will be in real trouble if he doesn’t. Even if he does, Ponder is definitely capable of wasting a great Peterson game, given that he’s outside, on the road, and playing with a bad elbow. In losses, Peterson has rushed for 762 yards on 104 attempts (7.3 YPC) this season. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is 12-4 ATS off a loss since 2009.
Green Bay Packers 34 Minnesota Vikings 13
Pick against spread: Green Bay -8 (-110) 4 units
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Wild Card Round Pick
For analysis on Cincinnati click here
For analysis on Houston click here
As tempting as it is to go against Matt Schaub, whose team is reeling right now, especially since this is Matt Schaub’s first playoff start (quarterbacks are 5-13 ATS at home in their first playoff start since 2002), I’m going with the Texans. Andy Dalton has only legitimately beaten one playoff team in his career (against a banged up and still inexperienced Washington team that wasn’t as good as they are now). I also feel like this line would have been -7.5 a few weeks ago. I think people are overreacting too much to the Texans’ recent struggles. It’d have to be an even 3 for me to make Houston a significant play, but they should be the right side.
Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 16
Pick against spread: Houston -4.5 (-110) 1 unit
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