Last week: 10 (-1)
Record: 6-4
On bye.
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2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings
Dallas Cowboys: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#12)
Last week: 12 (+0)
Record: 6-4
If the Cowboys win at home this week against the 4-6 Redskins and the Giants lose to the Packers, these two teams will be tied at 6-5 and the Cowboys be the favorite because they have the much easier schedule. The Cowboys host Philadelphia, go to Cincinnati, then host Pittsburgh and New Orleans, and then they go to Washington. The Giants, meanwhile, will go to Washington, host New Orleans (two games the Cowboys have two), but then they go to Baltimore and Atlanta (two games the Cowboys have already played), before heading home for Philadelphia (a same game). Every year there are 5 new playoff teams (17 straight years). If that’s going to happen again this year, Dallas pretty much has to make the playoffs.
Studs
RG Derrick Dockery: Did not allow a pressure on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts
WR Dez Bryant: Caught 12 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 63 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch
RE Jason Hatcher: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops
Duds
RT Doug Free: Allowed 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 69 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts
C Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts
LT Jeremy Parnell: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt
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Green Bay Packers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#13)
Record: 7-3
Last week: 13 (+0)
Of course, the one year I won’t shut up about things that happen every year is the one year they might not happen. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Well, the only team that is a candidate to do that is Chicago, who sits at 7-3, 2 games back of Atlanta, ½ game back of San Francisco, who has the tiebreaker, and tied with the Packers for even the divisional leader.
Every year, one team does the opposite and goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. All 4 teams who had a 1st round bye are 7-3 or better, right now, including these Packers. Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Of last year’s playoff teams, 9 already have 6 wins or fewer, 2 are at 5-5, and Detroit is at 4-6. The only thing that’s likely to happen is the opposite, one team who goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs (Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Minnesota).
Every year, there are 5 new playoff teams. Indianapolis and Chicago look likely to do so. Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Minnesota all both at 6-4 right now, but in order for them to both make the playoffs, they’d need either Green Bay or Chicago to miss the playoffs, but if Chicago misses than that’s counterproductive. For a 5th new playoff team to sneak in, Dallas will have to win the NFC East. Right now, the most improbable of the 5 teams out is Green Bay.
Basically for all of these scenarios to come true, Green Bay has to miss the playoffs. It’s certainly possible. They need to go at least 11-5 to assure themselves of the playoffs. They can go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. They do still have road games in New York (against the Giants), Chicago, and Minnesota, which won’t be easy. They also host Minnesota and Detroit (only home for Tennessee is really an easy game). However, they might be playing too well right now for their schedule to matter. I’m leaving them here for now, but we’ll see in a couple of weeks.
Studs
LT Marshall Newhouse: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts
CB Casey Hayward: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections
CB Davon House: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 sack on 1 blitz
MLB AJ Hawk: 9 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 4 catches for 10 yards on 5 attempts
SS Jerron McMillian: Allowed 1 catch for 24 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 quarterback hurries on 3 blitzes
LE Ryan Pickett: 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop
RE BJ Raji: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 assist
Duds
LG Evan Dietrich-Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts
RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty
RT TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts
CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 88 yards on 5 attempts, 1 assist
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New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#14)
Last week: 14 (+0)
Record: 6-4
On bye.
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New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#15)
Last week: 15 (+3)
Record: 5-5
The Saints are red hot right now, but they’ll need to go at least 5-1 to make the playoffs. The NFC is loaded. If the playoffs started today, there would be two 6-4 teams outside of the playoffs (either Tampa Bay, Seattle, or Minnesota). The Saints are only in 9th place at best in the NFC right now (tied with Dallas). Looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s possible how they’re playing, but I don’t trust their defense enough. They still have to go to Atlanta and New York (to play the Giants) and Dallas and they have two tough games at home (Tampa Bay and San Francisco). Only their week 17 contest at home against Carolina can be considered “easy.”
Studs
QB Drew Brees: 20 of 27 for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 104.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 27 drop backs (0 sacks, 5 of 7, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown)
LT Jermon Bushrod: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts
WR Lance Moore: Caught 2 passes for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch
CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 5 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 penalty, no tackles
CB Elbert Mack: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes,
Duds
MLB Curtis Lofton: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle, did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes
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Minnesota Vikings: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#16)
Last week: 15 (-1)
Record: 6-4
On bye.
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San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#17)
Last week: 17 (+0)
Record: 4-6
I think it’s time for the Chargers to go on their annual late season run. Unfortunately, just like the last 2 seasons, probably all this late season run is going to end up doing is saving Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s job and not actually help them make the playoffs. This week, they play Baltimore, who is overrated and generally struggles on the road as favorites. If they can win that game, I think they can, they’ll be 5-6 with an easy schedule. They finish at home for Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh (maybe without Roethlisberger), vs. Carolina, @ the Jets, and vs. Oakland.
Studs
WR Danario Alexander: Caught 7 passes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 0.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to
CB Marcus Gilchrist: Allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 2 quarterback hurries on 13 blitzes, 2 batted passes, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops
FS Eric Weddle: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop
LE Kendall Reyes: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops
Duds
LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 2 yards on 4 attempts
RT Jeromey Clary: Allowed 2 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 6 attempts
TE Antonio Gates: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 4 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch
SS Atari Bigby: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
RT Corey Liuget: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop
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Washington Redskins: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#18)
Last week: 22 (+4)
Record: 4-6
Despite, the Redskins’ sub .500 record, they do have a positive points differential, at +3. In fact, their points differential is actually better than that of the Cowboys, their 5-5 opponent this week, who is -13. This is because the Redskins have only lost 1 game by more than a touchdown (27-12 at Pittsburgh), despite their record. Of their 4 wins, 2 have come by more than a touchdown, including a 25 point win against Philadelphia last week. In games decides by a touchdown or less, they are just 2-5.
I think Griffin is definitely the rookie of the year. Both Luck and Griffin are really working with not much of a supporting cast, but despite Luck’s 6-4 record, the Colts are actually -50. Of their 4 losses, 3 have come by 20 or more, while only one of their 6 wins was by more than a touchdown. Luck is 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and he’s been better on 3rd downs, but overall, Griffin is posting much, much better stats. Stats aren’t everything, but the difference is so noticeable. Griffin’s QB rating is 101.0, while Luck’s is just 77.2. Griffin has 613 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Luck has 163 yards and 5 touchdowns. It’s not much of a contest.
Studs
QB Robert Griffin: 14 of 15 for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, 159.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 23 drop backs (5 scrambles, 2 sacks, 5 of 6 for 2 touchdowns), rushed for 85 yards on 12 attempts, 1 fumble
NT Barry Cofield: 2 quarterback hurries and 2 quarterback hits on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops
SS Brandon Meriweather: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops
Duds
RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 76 yards (72 after contact) on 20 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 2 penalties, caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 1 attempt
RT Tyler Polumbus: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 23 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts
LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 23 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -6 yards on 1 attempt
LE Jarvis Jenkins: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles
RE Stephen Bowen: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle
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Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#19)
Last week: 16 (-3)
Record: 4-6
Ryan Tannehill was awful last week at Buffalo, going 14 of 28 for 141 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but he was a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week. Still, it’s safe to say that any early hype about him is dead now that they’ve lost 3 straight. In his last 3 games, he’s gone 59 of 105 for 648 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.
However, it’s not like he was great in his first 7 games, despite his 4-3 record, going 120 of 203 for 1472 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The difference between their first 7 games and their last 3 has been their defense and running back. Underrated starting cornerback Richard Marshall is out for the season and Reggie Bush has fallen off the edge of the earth, rushing for just 82 yards on 24 attempts in his last 3 games.
Studs
LE Cameron Wake: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle
SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 4 catches for 37 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 12 solo tackles, 8 stops, 3 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes
RB Marcus Thigpen: 5 kickoff returns for 181 yards and a touchdown, 2 punt returns for 31 yards
Duds
QB Ryan Tannehill: 14 of 28 for 141 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 59.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 31 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 of 7, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)
RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 20 yards (8 after contact) on 10 attempts, caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop
RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts
TE Anthony Fasano: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps
DT Randy Starks: 1 sack on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle
DT Paul Soliai: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop
CB Nolan Carroll: Was not thrown on, 4 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist
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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 26 (+6)
Record: 5-5
The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule them out to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Lions are the favorite and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year, something that’s only happened once in the last decade. However, looking at the Bengals remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this week at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out. Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more, a situation the Raiders are in, and the Bengals are just 3-9 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites under Marvin Lewis.
Studs
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 101 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 25 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 1 attempt
LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts
C Trevor Robinson: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 15 attempts
RG Kevin Zeitler: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts
DT Geno Atkins: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops
RE Michael Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops
SS Nate Clements: Was not thrown on, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop
P Kevin Huber: 6 punts for 322 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 30 yards, 48.7 net yards per punt
Duds
MLB Rey Maualuga: Allowed 4 catches for 51 yards on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles
LE Carlos Dunlap: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop
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