2013 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings at London: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at London

Both of these teams are 0-3 and both of them deserve to be 0-3 the way they’ve played thus far, but I think one team has a better chance of turning it around going forward. Minnesota I predicted before the season started would go 5-11 and right now even that seems optimistic. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL.

Now they are 0-3. Adrian Peterson came into this week 5th in rushing with 281 yards on 69 carries, not bad at all, but not what he was doing last season. The 1499 rushing yards he’s on pace for would be the 3rd best total of his 7 year NFL career, but a good 600 yards less than he rushed for last season. 2 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less, after they went 5-0 in such games last season.

Injuries, meanwhile, have been more of a problem. Kevin Williams missed the first game of the season, while top cornerback Chris Cook is expected to miss this game. The absence of Antoine Winfield, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL last season, has also been felt as their secondary has been a major weakness. They had trouble with Brian Hoyer last week and now without Cook, they could be in a lot of trouble against Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for over 400 yards last week against a much tougher Chicago secondary in a losing effort. And, of course, Christian Ponder is out for this game with a rib problem, leaving Matt Cassel to start. He’s not a noticeable downgrade talent wise, but he has less familiarity with his teammates and the team could just mail it in at 0-3 without their starting quarterback.

The Steelers, meanwhile, I predicted to go 10-6 and make the playoffs this season. That’s one of the few things I’ve been really wrong about this season, but they won’t be this bad all season. While the Vikings seem bound for a top-5 pick, the Steelers could work their way back up closer to .500 before the season is over. They return Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller this week (Miller played last week, but in limited fashion). They will help shore up their biggest needs on a horrific offense, namely the need for a talented running back and a safety value receiver that Roethlisberger is comfortable throwing to.

The Steelers offense already looked better last week. The Steelers had 21 first downs, 2 punts, and 459 total yards to 15, 6, and 258 for the Bears, but lost by 17 because they committed 5 turnovers, 2 which went for touchdowns, without forcing a single turnover. They are now -9 in turnovers on the season, tied with the also 0-3 Giants for worst in the NFL. Fortunately, that kind of thing tends to be inconsistent in the long run. They won’t recover just 22.2% of fumbles all season. They also can still play defense and it’s only a matter of time before they start forcing takeaways (0 on the season). I also like the veteran Steelers team in London more than the younger Vikings. I expect them to avoid an 0-4 start here and start resembling the Steelers a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1)

The Bears are 3-0, but they were favored in all 3 games. Their “vaunted” defense has forced a league low 9 punts all season. Yes, they have 11 takeaways, but their combined punts forced and takeaways is just 20, which is also one of the worst in the NFL. In terms of preventing their opponents from moving the chains on any given 1st and 10, they are right around 75%, very middle of the pack, which is right around where their improved offense is as well. They can’t continue relying on takeaways and recovering 75% of fumbles they force. It’s very possible they miss Lovie Smith’s defensive leadership. Over 30 veterans Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers, and Lance Briggs are all disappointing. And now they’re without Henry Melton. This is a very shaky 3-0.

Detroit, meanwhile, is 2-1, but I think they’re playing a little bit better. They are converting 1st and 10 for another first down about 76% of the time, while allowing their opponents to do so about 74% of the time and they are ahead of Chicago in terms of differential there. They also played better against Minnesota than Chicago, the one mutual opponent these two teams have faced thus far. The Lions are no longer suffering from the problems that plagued them last season (turnovers, poor special teams, inability to win close games, inability to stop opponents from scoring defensive touchdowns) and that has allowed their talent to shine through like it did in 2011. I don’t think they’re significantly better than the Bears, but I think they’re a little bit better and that these two division rivals will split the season series with the home team winning each time.

At least that’s what I originally thought until I realized Detroit is in one of the most negative trends situations. Divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002. I don’t know why exactly, but it’s very possible the Lions could be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. It’s not enough for me to take Chicago and I think it’s possible the trend won’t apply here because Chicago is 3-0 and not someone to be overlooked, but I can’t have confidence on Detroit with that trend lingering. Maybe Chicago wins in Detroit and they get them back in Chicago later this year and they split the season series that way, I don’t know. But Chicago can beat Detroit in Detroit without being better than Detroit.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

The Buccaneers have made the switch, going from Josh Freeman to Mike Glennon for the 4th game of their season, after going 0-3 in their first 3. In his last 8 games, he had completed 174 of 356 (48.8%) for 2210 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 touchdowns, winning just one of those games. Mike Glennon probably can’t be worse, but I don’t think he’ll be much better. There was a reason he fell to the 3rd round of a poor quarterback draft, even with so many teams needing quarterbacks this year. He has a lot of flaws and while he could someday be a capable NFL quarterback, he’s definitely not ready to be an NFL starter right now.

It hurts him even more than his top two receivers (and really his only two good receivers) Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson are hurt. Both are expected to play, but they will both be limited and their injuries didn’t give them a chance to establish any sort of chemistry with their new quarterback during the week. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Glennon completed than 50% of his passes in this one. The Buccaneers have a good supporting cast, but they’re going to have a hard time winning games if they can’t move the ball through the air.

This spread suggests these two teams are even and I don’t think that’s true. The Cardinals had a close road loss in St. Louis and a close home win against the Lions in the first 2 weeks of the season and looked like a decent football team. Last week strayed from that narrative as they lost 31-7 in New Orleans, but there are two excuses. One, the Saints are a very good football team. Two, they were probably distracted after teammate Dan Williams’ father was killed in a car accident en route to the game.

Williams won’t play in this one as he attends the funeral, but we’ll probably see a much less distracted and much more inspired performance from the Cardinals this week. Also, as a result as losing last week, the Cardinals are in a good spot here as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 89-54 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. I like the Cardinals’ chances of covering and winning in this one.

Arizona Cardinals 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Arizona +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)

I was shocked that not only did the Colts beat the 49ers, but they beat them handily in San Francisco. Previously in the Andrew Luck era, they were sweating out close wins against bad teams and getting blown out by good teams, especially on the road. Last year, they played 7 games against teams who finished .500 or better. They went 3-4 in those games, which isn’t awful, but those wins came by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses came by 20, 35, 12, and 15. They went as good as their 11-5 record would have suggested last season, because of all of those blowout losses (plus a 35-9 loss to the freaking Jets!) and because they had 7 wins by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 or fewer games.

They were especially bad on the road last season, going 4-5 on the road with a point differential of -76 and an opponent’s overall record of 64-80. They didn’t really looked any better this season before last week, barely beating the Raiders at home and then losing to the Dolphins at home. However, unless the 49ers are significantly worse than we expect them to be, the Colts just blew out a good team on the road.

It’s very possible that was just an aberration. Yes, they did add Trent Richardson, but his impact (13/35/1) was minimal on that specific game. The reason they won last week is because they dominated the 49ers with their offensive line and secondary, which is something they had never really done before. I certainly see them as a better team as I did a week ago, but I’m not totally sold on them. What if they once again struggle to blow out an inferior opponent here in Jacksonville? The Jaguars beat the Colts by 3 and lost by 17 last season, meaning the Colts only outscored the Jaguars, on average, by 7 points per game last season. The Colts also only beat the 2-14 Chiefs by 7 in Kansas City last year. It shouldn’t surprise you if the same thing happens here.

The Colts are also in a bad spot coming off of a huge upset last week. Teams are 45-66 ATS since 1989 coming off of a win as double digit underdogs. I’m not that confident in Jacksonville for three reasons though. The first one is the possibility that the Colts are a legitimately improved team over last season and the first 2 weeks of this season. The second is the possibility that Trent Richardson has a huge game against a poor Jacksonville run defense and this time around becomes the reason why the Colts blow out an opponent. The third is just the possibility that the Jaguars are so terrible that the Colts won’t have to be an improved team to blow them out. I do feel Jacksonville is the right side though, with the Colts’ lack of a consistent history of blowing out inferior opponents, particularly on the road.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +9

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

Teams who have blowout wins on Monday Night Football tend to carry that over into the following week. Teams are 29-13 ATS off of a win by 21 or more points on Monday Night Football since 2002. The Broncos didn’t win by 21+ last week, because of a late fumble that immediately led to an Oakland touchdown and shrunk the margin from 23 to 16. However, they completely dominated the Raiders in a way even worse than the final score would suggest.

The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They might not have won by 21 or more, but they certainly dominated in a way that could be carried over into this game.

I also think this is a very poor matchup for the Eagles. Their defense has no chance of stopping Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos have 78 first downs and 13 punts this season, while the Eagles have allowed 77 first downs and forced 9 punts. There’s a very good chance that the Broncos score on almost every possession and surpass 40 points in this one. The Eagles’ offense, meanwhile, might not be able to execute their game plan as they’d like because of the altitude in Denver. They won’t be used to the thinner air and that could easily hurt their ability to run a no huddle, hurry up offense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because there’s no line value. The Broncos are favored by 11 points here which is a lot considering the Eagles aren’t a terrible team or anything. This line was also a lot lower last week before the Broncos blew out the Raiders and the Eagles lost at home to Kansas City. However, the Broncos should be the right side. They are also my Survivor Pick this week.

Denver Broncos 38 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Denver -11

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)

The Saints have held all 3 of their opponents this season to 17 or fewer points this season, something they did a total of 3 times last season. Young stars have broken out, especially Cameron Jordan, who is playing like an All-Pro back at his collegiate position of 5-technique defensive end. The offense doesn’t look right yet, but I don’t have big concerns about that going forward. The Saints could possibly be as complete as they’ve been in years this season.

The Dolphins are also 3-0, but I haven’t really changed from my pre-season projection for them because none of their wins have surprised me all that much. Teams win 3 games in a row all the time (22 of 32 teams did last season, including these Dolphins, who finished 7-9) and it’s not usually that impressive, but it’s just so much more noticeable when it happens at the start of the season. I’m not saying the Dolphins are the 2011 Bills or the 2012 Cardinals, but they are the worst of the 3-0 teams right now.

The Dolphins are also banged up right now. Paul Soliai and Cameron Wake are both questionable for this one and might not play. This isn’t a huge, huge deal because the Dolphins have a lot of defensive line depth, but Cameron Wake is one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL. Having him out or limited is going to have a noticeable impact on the Dolphins’ defense. It’s going to make it very tough for the Dolphins to slow Drew Brees and Ryan Tannehill will be forced to keep up. Tannehill is improved, but I don’t think he can win a shootout, especially against an improved defense that can take the ball away.

I’m also not betting against the Saints in the Superdome. They’ve won and covered their last 11 instances at home under Sean Payton, dating back to the start of the 2011 season. Brees is also historically been very good on Monday Night Football as a member of the Saints, going 8-4 ATS in these situations in his career. This line is pretty high, but as long as it’s under a touchdown, the Saints are clearly the right side. I think this could easily be a blowout that establishes the Saints as contenders and knocks the Dolphins down a notch.

New Orleans Saints 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Patriots certainly have injuries, but the Falcons do as well. They are without starting running back Steven Jackson, talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, and have lost starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season. Meanwhile, Roddy White is limited with a high ankle sprain and has not looked anywhere near his normal self this season, catching 7 passes for 56 yards in 3 games. Left tackle Sam Baker also missed last week with injury and is listed questionable for this game. Lamar Holmes struggled mightily in his absence last week. The Falcons lost in Miami last week as 2.5 point underdogs and now they are 2 point favorites at home for the Patriots, which essentially suggests that the Dolphins and Patriots are pretty equal, which I think doesn’t make any sense.

The Patriots have had a very easy schedule thus far this year, but I’ve been impressed with their defense. They have allowed 48 first downs to 21 punts forced this season, which is one of the best in the NFL. They haven’t been challenged yet, but I like their chances of carrying that over against real competition. They were 9th in the NFL allowing 20.7 points per game last season with a very young defense so it’s conceivable they could be a borderline top-5 defense this season.

The offense clearly has not been impressive, but if you ignore that week 2 game against a tough Jets defense on a short week, they have 47 first downs to 9 punts. They have a full week to prepare for the Falcons this week and their young receivers will only continue to get better. On top of that, both Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski could return. Both are questionable and there have been varying reports, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one of them played, though I would be a little surprised if both played. Gronkowski seems more likely to play than not, while Amendola seems less likely to play than not.

Having one of both of them in the lineup, even if they aren’t at 100%, will help open things up on their offense, especially Gronkowski, who is not only more likely to return, but more valuable to the Patriots. Last season, Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. In his other 8 games, he completed just 58.7% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’ll be especially valuable in the red zone, where the Patriots have struggled mightily by not just their standards, but any standards this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year, scoring a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone trips. This year, they are dead last, scoring a touchdown on 30.8% of red zone trips.

They should not be underdogs in Atlanta against the banged up Falcons. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirror. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It was also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. They also faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season last year.

The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgraded from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. Now they are getting killed by injuries. They have no business being favored here. On top of that, Tom Brady is 28-13 ATS as an underdog in his career. They’re being overlooked right now and could easily play by far their best game of the season against their toughest opponent yet.

This would be a bigger play or even a Pick of the Week if I knew the status of Amendola and/or Gronkowski and if the Falcons weren’t coming off of a loss. They are 18-4 ATS off of a loss since 2008. They are also very good at home, as Matt Ryan is 34-7 at home in his career and 25-15 ATS and 22-12 ATS as home favorites. However, I feel like this line is so far off that those trends don’t matter as much. The Patriots should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Atlanta Falcons 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: New England +2

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Seahawks are a significantly better team at home than on the road and have been for years. Since 2007, they are 34-18 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points per games and going 36-15 ATS. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 16-37, getting outscored by an average of 6.4 points per game and going 21-31 ATS. However, the Seahawks are 7-6 ATS as road favorites in that time frame. They’re also are playing so well right now that I’m not picking against them as mere field goal favorites in Houston.

They started last season poorly on the road, losing in St. Louis, Arizona, Miami, and Detroit. However, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 209 of 318 (65.7%) for 2888 yards (9.1 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 17.5 points per game over last 13 games overall, including 8.2 points per game on the road. They are 4-2 on the road over that stretch, including 5-1 ATS. They’re playing too well right now to bet against them unless the lines start to skyrocket. If anything, they’re underrated right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, are still pretty overrated. This is simply not the same team they were last season when they started out so well. The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now, needing comebacks to beat both the Chargers and Titans, two supposedly inferior opponents. They haven’t really played that well dating back to last season. Over their last 16 games (including playoffs), a full season’s worth, they are 10-6, but also -10 in point differential. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because of how they started last season on the road, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Houston Texans 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)

The Browns won last week in Minnesota, but they will find live a lot tougher this week against the Bengals. For one, they probably won’t be as successful if they try trick play again, like they did last week, when their punter threw an 11-yard touchdown and a special teamer had a 34 yard run. Take away that 34 yard run and a 22 yard run by Josh Gordon, they had just 47 rushing yards on 15 carries in their first week without Trent Richardson and that was against the Vikings. The Bengals run defense is much tougher and will make life very hard for the trio of Willis McGahee, Bobby Rainer, and Chris Ogbonnaya.

That’s going to make live tougher for Brian Hoyer, who was going to find live harder anyway against a Cincinnati pass defense that is much better than Minnesota’s. Hoyer had a solid week last week, but he also completed just 55.6% of his passes, averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and threw 3 interceptions so he’s hardly the Browns’ savior. Throughout his career, he’s completed just 58.0% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He’ll be overmatched against the Bengals, even with Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson expected out for the Bengals. Their front 7, particularly their defensive line, will help mask their absence.

The Bengals generally play well against bad teams in the Andy Dalton era, as they had an 18-4 record in 2011 and 2012 combined against non-playoff teams. They’re even better this year, coming off a statement win over the Packers, a likely playoff team. They were 1-11 against such teams in 2011 and 2012, but they beat the Packers despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams win just 17.9% of the time when losing the turnover battle by 2 historically.

I still think Andy Dalton is a limiting factor on this team, but his previous 1-11 record in 2011 and 2012 against eventual playoff teams doesn’t seem relevant at this point. His supporting cast is definitely good enough to mask his flaws, especially their defense. His supporting cast will make life easy for him this week against a weaker opponent. The Bengals should be able to establish their game plan easily against the Browns, as they usually do against weak opponents. This would be a higher confidence pick if the line were below the key numbers of 3 and 4, but I still feel pretty confident the Bengals get a big win here.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

The Giants are an NFL worst -9 in turnovers, while the Chiefs are an NFL best +9 in turnovers. Therefore, the Chiefs should dominate the turnover battle and win this game right? Well, that’s not necessarily true. Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week to week (and year to year) basis. For example, teams who win the turnover battle by 4 one week, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Teams who lose the turnover battle by 4 one week, same thing, an average of+0.0 the following week.

Alex Smith has yet to throw an interception on 105 attempts this year, but that’s not going to continue. He simply hasn’t really been tested and, as a result, hasn’t had to make a lot of high risk throws. He’s attempted just 18 of 105 passes more than 10 yards through the air and just 4 more than 20 yards through the air. He also hasn’t completed a single pass outside the hash marks longer than 10 yards downfield all season.

Eli Manning, meanwhile, has thrown an interception on 7.0% of his pass attempts, which also won’t continue. This is a guy who has thrown an interception on 3.3% of his 4571 career pass attempts. This stretch is just a fluke and a lot of the interceptions haven’t been his fault. The Giants are also unlikely to continue recovering just 22.2% of fumbles all season, while the Chiefs are also unlikely to recover just 85.7% of fumbles all season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Giants won the turnover battle in this one. As a result, I feel the Giants are undervalued, while the Chiefs are overvalued.

The Giants are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off of a road loss, a situation teams are 89-54 ATS in since 2008. Teams recover in this situation about 65% of the time historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. They’re also coming off of a blowout loss, losing 38-0 in Carolina last week. Teams are 43-22 ATS since 2002 off of a 35+ point loss. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. That’s very likely the case here. The Giants are 0-3 here and their season is pretty much over if they lose, while the Chiefs, who are 3-0, could overlook them.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-31 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-18 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-7 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004.

They’re generally a better team in the first half of the season anyway. Since 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-22 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Clearly that hasn’t been the case here so far this season, but I think it’s still worth noting. The Giants starting a season 0-4 would be pretty ridiculous considering their history. It’s not my primary reason for taking them here, but it works well with everything else I’ve mentioned.

We’re not getting a ton of line value here, with the Chiefs only as 4.5 point favorites, but I think the odds makers are keeping the line intentionally low as a kind of trap line, and the majority of the action is on the Chiefs. That just reinforces my belief that the Giants are the right side and fortunately this line has passed the critical numbers of 3 and 4. That’s important because 29% of NFL games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s a pretty good cushion with the Giants in case they can’t win. As long as this line is 4.5 points or higher, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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