2013 Week 16 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Packers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In DVOA, they rank 13th. They are moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 70.64% for their opponents, a differential of 0.95% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

The Packers are moving the chains at a 74.28% rate, as opposed to 74.32% for their opponents, a differential of -0.04% that ranks 15th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be at about 2, which is right around where it is (2.5), but, remember, much of what’s buoying the Packers’ rank in rate of moving the chains differential was done when Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Given that it’ll be Matt Flynn here this week, it’s absurd that they’re favored. The Steelers might have the better defense and offense in this one and they’re getting points.

Matt Flynn’s numbers since joining the Packers are pretty good, as he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. However, you have to consider that in 3 of the 4 games he’s played, he faced 3 of the worst defenses in the NFL (Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas). You can’t ignore his performance against Detroit, when he completed 10 of 20 for 139 yards and a pick in a 40-10 loss on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s at least comparable to Detroit’s. Flynn won’t have nearly the success he’s had against cupcake defenses.

Speaking of cupcake defenses, Matt Flynn shredded a Dallas defense that is worst in the NFL last week, in an upset comeback win by 1 point. They could suffer a hangover effect after such a big win. Home favorites are 24-40 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more. On top of that, Pittsburgh is in a great spot with no distractions left on their schedule, as they only face Cleveland in Pittsburgh next week. Teams are 116-86 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Packers are going to have a hard time beating a superior, focused opponent at home, especially if they’re hung over after last week, and the fact that we’re getting points with Pittsburgh just sweetens the deal. I have a good deal of confidence in the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that ranks 16th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 76.20% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 0.75% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Eagles are a better team with Nick Foles under center, which is why the Eagles are a better team in spite of that. Nick Foles has been incredible on the season, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 9.02 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles are 7-2 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

Of course, that assumes normal circumstances and that this game means the same thing to these teams equally. This game could be meaningless to the Eagles if the Cowboys win earlier in the day, because they can’t clinch the division or be eliminated in this one. They might not rest their starters or anything, but that still could affect their motivation, especially against a Chicago team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Even if Dallas loses, the Eagles still could have their motivation affected because they know they can still clinch next week in Dallas, while Chicago is in a much bigger fight. They also might not be preparing for this game with the same urgency of the Bears, assuming a Dallas win against the hapless Redskins.

There are seeding consequences related to this game as if both teams were to win their respective divisions, the winner of this game would be the 3 seed and the loser would be the 4 seed, but there’s really not a big difference between a home game against San Francisco and a home game against New Orleans/Carolina, so these teams might not care about seeding. This is still a bigger game for the Bears. Of course, this line does seem to take that into account as it’s at 3, which suggests these two teams are equal. We’ve already established that really isn’t true. I’m still taking the Bears, but I’m not confident at all. I might change my mind on that pre-game if the line stays in the same place and the Cowboys win though, so stay tuned.

Update: The Cowboys won earlier today, so this game becomes meaningless for Philadelphia. I’m raising this to a low confidence pick at the new line of 2.5, but I’m not confident enough to put money on it.

Chicago Bears 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Chicago +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

On one hand, the Jets are in a sandwich spot here, coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and before a bigger game against Miami next week. Teams are 81-98 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-102 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. This is a classic rest game situation as the Jets could give less than 100% for an easier game in between two much harder games.

We’re also getting line value with the Browns as the Jets are secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league worst 63.41% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -6.23%. This makes sense as their -121 point differential is the 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only Houston, Washington, and Jacksonville. The Browns aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02%, which is 23rd in the NFL. However, this line suggests these two teams are essentially even, which I don’t think is true. That suggests this line should be at a straight up pick.

On the other hand, the Jets usually bounce back off a loss well. The Jets are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread off of a loss on the season. They’re also a much better home team than road team this season. They are 5-2 straight up and against the spread at home, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 0.86 points per game. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 16.43 points per game. At home off of a loss, they are 4-1 ATS this season.

That’s because Geno Smith has been so much better at home on the road. On the road, he’s been downright abysmal, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He hasn’t been great at home, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, that’s so much better than he’s been on the road (a QB rating of 70.0, as opposed to 55.9 on the road) and he’s been good enough for their strong defense to carry them to at least some success.

Also, the Browns are not in a good spot either, as, like the Jets, they have a more important game next week, which could keep them from covering the spread. Next week they go to Pittsburgh and teams are 48-75 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, the Browns are far from full strength as they’ll likely be without Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Desmond Bryant.

Haden is easily their best coverage defensive back. Jordan Cameron is a valuable #2 option in the passing game. Now the Jets just have to game plan for Josh Gordon, which will make it much easier to stop him. Desmond Bryant, meanwhile, was very much missed last week against the Bears as their strong run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 3rd in the NFL) allowed the Bears, led by Matt Forte, to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.8 yards per carry). Again, I have no confidence at all either way, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Jets as long as this line is below a field goal. If we were getting field goal protection, I might take the Browns. That’s how close this is.

New York Jets 13 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12)

This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 3 or more. They’ll actually probably be double digit road favorites in Oakland next week and teams are 77-53 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 1989. On top of that, teams are 94-66 ATS since 2010 as double digit favorites before being double digit favorites.

On the other hand, Houston is in a good spot on a long losing streak. It might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 53-31 ATS since 1989 as underdogs on a losing streak of 8 or more. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs. The Texans possibly being embarrassed and overlooked is pretty self-explanatory and they are also undervalued as no one wants to bet on a team on a long losing streak, so the odds makers can boost the spread on them.

We are getting line value this week with the Texans. The Broncos are obviously a very good team. They have the NFL’s best offense, moving the chains at an absurd 81.20% rate, easily the best in the NFL, but their defense is vulnerable, as they allow opponents to chains the chains at an above average 72.86% rate. That differential of 8.34% is still 2nd in the NFL, but the Texans are actually better than their record, coming in 19th. The Texans’ offense has been horrible, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but their defense is above average, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.27% rate, a differential of -1.70%. That suggests this line should actually be around 7, instead of 10.5.

The Texans are 2-12 because they’ve been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent, and because they are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have just four losses by more than a touchdown all season, including just one at home, which is very relevant because this line is at 10.5. They don’t get blown out often. Likewise, the Broncos have just one road victory by double digits, as well as they’ve played this season.

The Texans showed up big-time at home for the Patriots a few weeks ago, almost winning in a 3 point loss. They could do that this week as well, especially now that they have a real quarterback in Matt Schaub back under center, with Case Keenum hurt. Keenum was doing some nice things for the Texans when he first took over as a starter, but eventually opposing defenses were able to expose why he went undrafted. He bottomed out last week, completing 18 of 34 for 169 yards and 2 interceptions in a 25-3 loss to Indianapolis, one of those 4 losses by more than a touchdown on the season.

Schaub isn’t great or anything and he’s not what he used to be, but he’s still a starting caliber quarterback. I don’t think his season numbers (62.4% completion, 6.64 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions) are indicative of the type of quarterback he is, considering they’re so far off of his career numbers. He probably knows he won’t be back in Houston next year, so he’ll take these two games as an opportunity to display himself to quarterback needy teams that could pursue him as a starter in free agency this off-season. He’ll be plenty motivated. At the end of the day, I’m taking Houston and fading the public as long as this line is 10.5, but there’s enough stuff in Denver’s favor where I’m not confident at all. In fact, if this line was 10, I might take Denver. That’s how close it is.

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Houston +10.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

I’m completely split on this one. Not only do I not have a convincing argument for either side, but both of these two teams are essentially locked in to their current seed. Kansas City would need Denver to lose to either Houston or Oakland for them to move up (not happening) and they can’t move down, while the Colts would need the Bengals to lose at home to either the Vikings or the Ravens (probably not happening) to move up and they can’t move down.

On top of that, not only are they locked into their current seeds, but they will almost definitely be playing each other in the 1st round in the 4/5 matchup. Sure, these two teams might still have hope about moving up, but, at the same time, their coaching staffs could be realistic and believe it makes more sense to concede this game and stay in their current spot than to let their opponent get a firsthand look at their best stuff. They might not do that, but the fact that either could makes this game so uncertain, especially since we don’t know which team would be to the one to do so.

Moving on to not having a convincing argument for either side, there are two conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Chiefs scored a ridiculous 56 points last week. Teams tend to carry that over into the next week, going 45-29 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of a game in which they scored 48 or more points. On the other hand, this is the last tough game on Indianapolis’ schedule, while Kansas City still has a trip to San Diego coming up. The Colts host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 116-86 as non-divisional road underdogs before divisional home favorites since 2002.

Gun to my head, I’m taking Kansas City. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.23% rate, as opposed to 67.12% for their opponents, a differential of 5.11% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Colts, however, are all the way down at 17th, moving the chains at a 71.86% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39%. That suggests this line should be closer to 8.5, instead of 7, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Colts are not playing good football of late. They have a point differential of -37 since the bye, 7 games, despite a 22 point win over the lowly Texans last week. The Chiefs also are probably going to get back Justin Houston from injury. He looked like the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner before he got hurt and they’ve noticeably missed him defensively, so that’ll be a big re-addition. I’m not confident in the Chiefs at all though.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-11) at Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

At first glance, this line doesn’t make any sense. In what universe are the Cowboys 6 points better than the Redskins (3 points for home field advantage)? The Cowboys’ defense not only is the worst defense in the NFL, but it’s approaching historically bad. They only thing they do right is take away the ball, as their 26 takeaways have led to a +11 turnover margin for the Cowboys, but that’s unsustainable, especially since it’s propelled by a ridiculous 70.00% fumble recovery rate.

If the Cowboys can’t take the ball away, they generally can’t stop you. They’ve allowed a league worst 350 first downs, to go with 45 touchdowns allowed (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL), and they’ve only forced 56 punts (tied for worst in the NFL) and 25 field goal attempts (pretty middle of the pack). They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an insane 78.06% rate. For comparison’s sake, if an offense were to be moving the chains at that rate, it would be 2nd in the NFL, behind only Denver. Kirk Cousins will be the 4th straight backup quarterback the Cowboys have faced, but they’ve allowed the last 3 (Matt McGloin, Josh McCown, and Matt Flynn), to complete 71 of 105 (67.6%) for 902 yards (8.59 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Why can’t Kirk Cousins shred them as well?

Washington’s defense isn’t much better. In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL that has surrendered more offensive touchdowns than the Cowboys. Their opponents move the chains at a 75.88% rate, which is better than Dallas, but hardly something to be proud of. The Cowboys have an explosive offense that can shred that defense, as the move the chains at a 74.38% rate, but the Redskins’ offense is solid as well, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate. Kirk Cousins is a downgrade from Robert Griffin, but not a significant one and they can still run the ball well with Alfred Morris.

This game definitely has the looks of a shootout, but we’re getting line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys’ rate of moving the chains differential of -3.69% ranks 24th in the NFL, while the Redskins’ differential of -4.48% comes in 26th. That suggests this line should be closer to Washington being favored by 2, instead of underdogs of 3. You can’t follow that blindly and, contrary to popular believe, Robert Griffin not being out there does hurt them (oh Kirk Cousins shredded Atlanta? congratulations), but I think there’s definitely something to the Cowboys not deserving to be favored by this much. I think the only team in the NFL they deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road against is Jacksonville.

In spite of that, the public is all over Dallas and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here. The Redskins have a trend working in their favor as well. For one, teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 41-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. On top of that, Tony Romo’s 12-25 ATS record in week 13 or later is worth noting. It’s not all on him, but this team does tend to collapse towards the end of the season, for whatever reason.

On the other hand, however, there are plenty of things working for the Cowboys. They’re in the better spot here from a pure trends situation. While they will be favorites again next week, the Redskins will be underdogs again, as they head to New York to face the Giants. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs.

However, both of those trends stem from the fact that teams that will be favorites again don’t usually have a distraction game on the horizon, while teams that will be underdogs again usually do. I don’t think that applies here. The Cowboys will be playing for the division next week against Philadelphia so, while they will be favorites, it doesn’t make that won’t be a distraction. Sure, they need to win here to make sure that game is even meaningful, but it’s the tougher of the Cowboys’ two games, so they could actually be caught looking forward to it. Washington, meanwhile, probably actually cares more about this one that they do about a 5-9 Giants team that isn’t playoff bound.

Still, there is one trend that applies to this situation that makes sense. Road favorites are 45-25 ATS off of a close (between 1-3 points) home loss as favorites of more than 3 points. Teams in that situation tend to be embarrassed about such a close home upset loss and, as long as the odds makers still believe in them enough to make them road favorites, they tend to redeem themselves the following week. The Cowboys may or may not deserve to be road favorites, but it’s worth noting. Also worth noting is that the NFC East is 45-26 ATS on the road in divisional games. Those two things and the fact that I don’t totally trust Kirk Cousins scare me off of Washington, but they should still be the right side, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +3

 

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at San Diego Chargers (7-7)

Both of these teams are in bad spots this week and both of those have to do with Denver. Oakland has to deal with Denver next week so they might not be completely focused for the Chargers here, at least not enough to keep it close. Teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Raiders almost certainly will be next week. Going off of that, the Raiders will probably be double digit home underdogs next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs and teams are 16-40 ATS since 2002 before being double digit home underdogs, including 3-14 ATS before being divisional double digit home underdogs. Furthermore, teams are 22-45 ATS in their first of two or more straight games as double digit underdogs since 2002. The Raiders are in no position to be keeping this one close and covering this spread this week.

However, the Chargers are in a bad spot as well after last week’s win in Denver. Teams are 35-56 ATS since 2002 after a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. The Chargers got an emotional upset victory last week and that could cause a hangover effect this week, especially against such a lowly opponent. That win also caused a huge line movement as this line went from 7.5 to 10 in the span of a week.

That being said, the Chargers aren’t in as bad of a spot as the Raiders are and they’ve had extra rest to prepare for this game, as it was on a Thursday Night, so that could counteract some of the hangover effect. On top of that, while the line movement did cost us some line value with the Chargers, we’re still getting value with them and not the Raiders, even at 10. The Chargers are a legitimately very solid team, while the Raiders are one of the worst in the NFL.

The Chargers move the chains at a 78.71% rate, as opposed to 76.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.71% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th, moving the chains at a 67.49% rate, as opposed to 73.56% for their opponents, a differential of -6.08. That suggests this line should actually be around 11.5. I’m not that confident in the Chargers because we could see a letdown game from them, but they should be the right side against a bottom-5 team that has a bigger game next week. The Chargers are also my Survivor Pick of the week.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season alone. Teams are 6-19 ATS off of that type of win as that’s clearly an unsustainable way to win games and it leads to artificially inflated lines and artificially overconfident teams. The Rams didn’t win in that manner last week, but only because of some garbage time touchdowns. The Rams led 27-3 going into the 4th quarter in what was eventually a 27-16 game.

The Rams still won by 11 despite losing the first down battle by 13. Teams that lose the first down battle by 11 or more and still win by 11 or more are 13-24 ATS the following week. I realize those are very artificial boundaries, but so is the original 6-19 ATS trend. The point I’m trying to prove is that winning a game by a large margin despite losing the first down battle by a large margin is an unsustainable way to win and it leads to teams that are overconfident and lines that are overinflated. For example, this line was at 3 a week ago and now it’s at 5.5. That’s a huge line movement, crossing over the key numbers of 3 and 4, and it’s the result of a fluky St. Louis victory.

Because 4 of their 6 wins have come in games in which they won by large margins despite losing the first down battle by large margins, the Rams are not nearly as good as their record. Despite their 6-8 record, they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 74.02% for their opponents, a differential of -4.04%. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape either, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 66.33% rate, as opposed to 72.21% rate for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. They’ve been buoyed by an unsustainable +11 margins. However, this line is still a little too big, as I have it calculated at 5, using rate of moving the chains differential. This line is currently at 5.5. It’s not a lot, but it’s something.

That being said, I can’t be confident in either side at all considering both have much more important games next week. The Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, while the Rams travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which both teams almost certainly will be next week. I’m going to take the points to fade the public and because the way the Rams have been blowing teams out is unsustainable, but I’m not confident at all.

St. Louis Rams 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Believe or not, the Bills have actually been very good at home. It doesn’t show in their home record (3-4), but they are 5-2 ATS at home, 5-1 ATS if you ignore what was essentially a neutral site game in Toronto and 5-1 ATS at home dogs. Given that they’ve been underdogs in all 6 of their games in Buffalo, their 3-3 record there seems a lot better. They’ve had a very tough schedule, facing the Patriots, Panthers, Chiefs, Bengals, four likely playoff teams who currently all have 9-5 or better records, the Ravens, another possible playoff team who is currently 8-6, and the Jets. The Jets were the easiest team they’ve faced at home and the Bills won that game by 20.

Of those 3 losses, only one came by more than a field goal and that was the game in which Jeff Tuel started against Kansas City, a 10 point loss in which the Chiefs scored 14 points off of return touchdowns. Why is everyone so sure the Dolphins will beat them by more than a field goal? The public is all over Miami as 3 point favorites and I love fading heavy public leans whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always make money in the long run. It certainly makes sense here.

EJ Manuel is out for this one, but I don’t think Thad Lewis is a serious downgrade or anything. In fact, the game in which the Bills took the Bengals to overtime in Buffalo was started by Thad Lewis. He also beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this season. EJ Manuel has more long-term upside, but for this season, I think Thad Lewis is at least a comparable quarterback, if not a better quarterback. EJ Manuel actually has a lower QB rating on the season than Lewis, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 77.7. Thad Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.33 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, a QB rating of 80.2.

Besides, it’s not like offense is the reason why Buffalo has had any success this season. They move the chains at a 66.21% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their defense, however, has been incredible, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.34% rate. Their defensive line has especially been good (league leading 49 sacks), which is going to be trouble for the Dolphins, whose weakness is their offensive line (league leading 51 sacks allowed). Ryan Tannehill was under pressure on 16 of 39 dropbacks in their last matchup (41.0%) and Tannehill completed passes on just 5 of those dropbacks, a big part of the reason why the Bills were able to prevail.

That rate of moving the chains differential of -2.13% is 21st in the NFL. The Dolphins are actually 22nd, moving the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 70.95% for their opponents, a differential of -2.60%. That actually suggests the Bills should be favored by 3.5 points. Now, you can’t just follow that blindly. I don’t think the Bills and Dolphins are exactly comparable teams nor do I think the Bills are a better team than the Dolphins. The Dolphins are playing better football of late. However, it’s not something you can ignore. The Bills are better than their record and the Dolphins are better than their record. DVOA backs this up as the Dolphins rank 18th, while the Bills rank 23rd. The Dolphins don’t deserve to be 3 point favorites here, even before you take into account the Bills’ home dominance.

There are a couple of reasons why the Bills aren’t a bigger play. For one, the Bills are in a bad spot as they have to face the Patriots next week in New England, which could be a distraction for them. Teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t really have an upcoming distraction as they face the Jets next week in Miami. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Still, there’s enough here for me to be fairly confident in the Bills, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 97 of 156 (62.2%) for 1356 yards (8.69 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 21.57 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 23-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

That’s certainly the case here against a 4-10 Atlanta team, against whom they are favored by 12. Atlanta isn’t in a good spot here as they have to face Carolina next week in Atlanta. They won’t sleepwalk through this nationally televised 2012 NFC Championship rematch, but with such a big game coming up next week as well, they could easily not be as focused as they need to be to keep this one close. Teams are 37-67 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more.

Also working against the Falcons is the fact that this is a night game on the West Coast against a West Coast opponent. While this game will run from 8:30 to about 11:30 or 12:00 on the Falcons’ internal clocks, it’ll run from 5:30 to 8:30 or 9:00 on the 49ers’ internal clock. While the Falcons’ will be internally winding down energy wise in the 2nd half, the 49ers will still be going. Sounds crazy? Well maybe a little, but West Coast teams are 48-20 ATS at night at home against East Coast teams since 1989 so there definitely seems to be something to this.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because this line is a little big. The 49ers are moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 66.25% for their opponents, a differential of 3.65% that is 8th in the NFL. The Falcons, meanwhile, move the chains at a 73.38% rate, as opposed to 75.17% for their opponents, a differential of -1.79% that ranks 20th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8.5, instead of 12, which is a big difference. Still, the 49ers’ average margin of victory against teams with losing records (21.57), the Falcons having to face the Panthers next week, and the time zone aspect are enough for me to be pretty confident in the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -12

Confidence: Medium

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