2014 NFL Free Agency

Baltimore Ravens re-sign MLB Daryl Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Daryl Smith was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but missed most of the 2012 season with injury and was undervalued on the open market, coming from Jacksonville and going into his age 31 season. The Ravens wisely snatched him up and plugged him in at Ray Lewis’ old spot at middle linebacker. Smith proved to be a great addition, providing an upgrade over the late career Lewis, grading out as Pro Football Focus 16th ranked middle linebacker.

He’s now going into his age 32 season, but 4.1 million annually (16.4 million over 4 years) is a very reasonable sum to pay for him and there isn’t a lot of guaranteed money. Ozzie Newsome continues to prove he’s one of the best general managers in the NFL. Teams with rotating doors at GM overpay on big splash moves early in free agency that usually don’t work out, while the top GMs, guys like Ted Thompson (Green Bay), Bill Belichick (New England), Trent Baalke (San Francisco), John Schneider (Seattle), Jerry Reese (NY Giants) and Newsome draft well, re-sign their own guys on reasonable deals, and wait for free agency to come to them.

Grade: A-

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign OT Eugene Monroe

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

It’s crazy how much the league seems to undervalue Eugene Monroe. The Ravens were able to steal him from the Jaguars for a mid-round pick this season, probably the equivalent to what they would have gotten in a compensation pick had he just left as a free agent this off-season. Now they lock him up long-term for 37.5 million over 5 years with 19 million guaranteed. Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season.

Even if we use his composite grade for the 2013 season, Monroe is still one of just 4 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-16 on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons (Joe Thomas, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). Despite that kind of consistency, Monroe’s average annual salary of 7.5 million is just 11th in the NFL, behind both Thomas and Whitworth and only slightly ahead of the underpaid Roos, who happens to be going into his age 32 season, while Monroe is going into his age 27 season.

Compare this deal to the one the Dolphins gave Branden Albert, who got 46 million over 5 years. Albert has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus and has declined in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out 18th, 25th, and 28th. Albert also is going into his age 30 season and has a history of injury. It looks like Ozzie Newsome, annually one of the league’s best GMs, has done it again, locking up a player at or below market value.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns sign MLB Karlos Dansby

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This was a fairly strong free agent class overall, but the one position where it was weak was at middle linebacker. Middle linebacker in general was a weak position in the NFL last season, as only 16 of 55 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus graded out positively last season. Karlos Dansby was by far the best of the free agent middle linebackers and Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season.

The Browns were one of the league’s neediest teams in terms of the middle linebacker position with D’Qwell Jackson gone and Craig Robertson not resembling a starting caliber middle linebacker (52nd out of 55 eligible last season). They cut Jackson, saving 5.23 million on the cap in doing so, and get Dansby at 24 million over 4 years (6 million dollar annual value). This deal has 14 million guaranteed, but none after the first two years, so it’s essentially a two-year, 14 million dollar deal, which is good in case he begins to decline.

Dansby might never have another year as good as last season again, as he’s going into his age 33 season, and as he had never been a top-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus before this, but he graded out 12th in 2010, 11th in 2011, and 13th in 2012. He’s two years older than Jackson, but he’s still an upgrade at a comparable cost, as Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season. Considering Jackson got 22 million over 4 with the Colts, with 11 million guaranteed, and the Browns had money to spend, this is a solid deal.

Grade: A-

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Cleveland Browns sign RB Ben Tate

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Ben Tate has certainly flashed the ability to be a feature back in the NFL. Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. The running back position is becoming devalued because of their short career spans and injury proneness.

Given all that, credit the Browns for getting him on a cheap short-term deal that will pay him just 7 million dollars over 2 millions. The Browns should still add a solid backup for Tate in case the injury bug comes back, but Tate could be a dominant runner in their zone blocking scheme under Kyle Shanahan. Comparing this deal to some of the other contracts received by running backs this off-season, Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million), the Browns definitely got a very solid deal.

Grade: A-

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New Orleans Saints re-sign OT Zach Strief

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Saints, Uncategorized

These are some contracts given to right tackles over the past 2 off-seasons: Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million), Austin Howard (5 years, 30 million), and Michael Oher (4 years, 20 million). Given that, it’s a great value that Saints got Zach Strief for 20.5 million over 5 years, less average annual value than all of the aforementioned right tackles, and only 8.5 million guaranteed.

Strief is going into his age 31 season, which is part of why they were able to get him so cheap, but there’s no guaranteed money on this deal after the first 2 seasons, so the Saints can cut him fairly pain-free once he begins to decline. With the exception of an injury plagued 2012 season, Strief has been one of the best right tackles in the game over the past 3 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 (6th right tackle), and 7th ranked offensive tackle in 2013 (1st right tackle). His age and injury history are a concern, but this is a relatively risk-free deal that could pay big dividends for a Saints team struggling to keep their offensive line together.

Grade: A-

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Tennessee Titans sign OT Michael Oher

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Titans, Uncategorized

Michael Oher had the worst year of his 5-year career last year, as the 2009 1st round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible on the right side in Baltimore. Oher has actually regressed in almost every season as a pro. He had a strong rookie year, grading out 15th at his position, but then went 40th, 38th, 57th, and then, of course, 68th last season. Given that, I thought he’d have to take a cheap one-year prove it deal somewhere to rehab his value going into next off-season.

Apparently the Titans didn’t think it was necessary to give him last as they are paying him 20 million over 4 years with 9.5 million guaranteed. He’ll be paid like a reliable starter, which is not what he is. This deal is comparable to what right tackles Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), and Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million) got last off-season, as what Austin Howard (5 years, 30 million) got this off-season. Those players are all significantly better and more reliable. The Titans would have been better off promoting promising swing tackle Byron Stingily or drafting someone like Jake Matthews or Taylor Lewan 11th overall than overpaying Oher this off-season.

Grade: C-

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign C Evan Dietrich-Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Evan Dietrich-Smith took over as the starting center from Jeff Saturday late in the 2012 season and played solid in limited action and then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked center in 2013 in his first full season as a starter. He’s still just a one year wonder, but this deal is a steal, getting him for under 4 million dollars per year. I can’t believe the Packers wouldn’t match the Buccaneers or outbid them on this one.

This deal is worth 14.25 million over 4 years, with 7.25 million guaranteed. Dietrich-Smith will likely continue playing center in Tampa Bay, though he has the versatility to move to guard if need be. Jeremy Zuttah, meanwhile, will either move back to guard or be a cap casualty in a move that would save the Buccaneers 4.5 million on the cap, more than Dietrich Smith’s average salary. This was a great get for the Buccaneers.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend S Aaron Williams

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bills, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

So the Bills won’t give Jairus Byrd 9 million per year, but giving Aaron Williams 6.5 million is fine? This makes Aaron Williams the 11th highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average salary. Williams, a 2011 2nd round pick, was a bust at cornerback in 2011 and 2012, grading out 87th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks in 2011 and 91st out of 113 eligible safeties in 2012. He reinvented himself as a solid safety in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety.

That being said, he’s still a one year wonder. Who is to say he doesn’t regress in 2014? Even if he doesn’t, he’s yet to prove he’s a top level safety. I find it hard to imagine anyone would find Williams to be worth 26 million or more over 4 years on the open market next off-season. Williams still had another year left on his rookie deal so I really don’t see the urgency to overpay him like this.

Grade: C-

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Detroit Lions re-sign RB Joique Bell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Lions, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

3.1 million per year over 3 years might seem like too much money for a backup running back considering the way the running back position has been devalued, but Joique Bell, a restricted free agent, might have been the best running back on the open market if he were an unrestricted free agent. If you compare this deal to deals received by Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million), this is a very reasonable deal.

Bell is one of the better and more important backup running backs in the NFL, playing 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked running back in 2013 and 12th ranked in 2012. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches). He’s even more important considering Reggie Bush’s injury history and age (going into his age 29 season). This was a very solid move to bring him back.

Grade: A-

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Denver Broncos sign S TJ Ward

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This is an absolute steal. TJ Ward definitely took less money to join a contender in Denver because there’s no way 23 million over 4 years was the best offer Ward could get. He got 5 million dollars less over 4 years than Donte Whitner did to take Ward’s old spot in Cleveland. Jairus Byrd, meanwhile, got more guaranteed money (28 million) than Ward got total money, not to mention a 9 million dollar annual salary over 6 years. And neither of those deals were that bad.

Ward will slot in at strong safety next to Rahim Moore and be a massive upgrade at a position of need. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He was also 13th in 2011, despite missing 8 games with injury. That was really his only injury plagued season as he missed 2 games in his other 3 seasons combined, playing 54 games in 4 seasons, starting each of them and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. This is a great move.

Grade: A

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