2014 NFL Free Agency

Atlanta Falcons re-sign DT Jonathan Babineaux

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I didn’t like the Falcons other two moves, signing Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai, but I actually really like this move. Jonathan Babineaux is going into his age 33 season and has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons, but he’s still graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 6 seasons, showing himself to be a rare model of consistency and maxing out as their #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2009.

The days of him being an elite player are gone and the days of him being even a solid starter could soon follow, but the price of 9 million over 3 years with only 4 million guaranteed and nothing guaranteed after 2014 is a very reasonable price to pay to bet that he can keep it up another year or two. If the Falcons are in fact switching to a base 3-4, Babineaux would fit fine as a 5-technique defensive end and, unlike Jackson and Soliai, he wouldn’t be a liability in sub packages.

Grade: A-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DT Paul Soliai

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

What’s with the Falcons committing all this money to pure run stoppers? I understand they need to improve their run defense, but they also need to add pass rushers. Not only are Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai not pass rushers, but they’re actually liabilities on passing plays. They played a combined 493 pass snaps last season and for good reason. Now the Falcons have given them each 5-year deals that have a combined total value of 58 million dollars with 25 million guaranteed. This one might be even worse than the Tyson Jackson deal. Part of that is because the max value is 8 million dollars more, though they’re both highly unlikely to ever see all that money. Part of it is because Soliai is going into his age 31 season.

Soliai, like Jackson, had a solid season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked defensive tackle, including 16th in run grade, as a part-time player on 526 snaps. However, he graded out as roughly a league average player in a part-time role in both 2011 and 2012 and, even in 2010, when he had another solid year, it was as a part-time player, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle, including their 8th ranked in run grade. Either the Falcons think that both the Chiefs and Dolphins were originally using Jackson and Soliai incorrectly as part-time players and that they can get more out of them, or the Falcons decided $5-6.5 million yearly for part-time/base package players was a solid value. I don’t think either of those things are accurate.

Grade: C-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DE Tyson Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I wrote in my Chiefs’ off-season preview that Tyson Jackson would be lucky if he got the 3 year 12.6 million dollar deal that the Chiefs gave teammate Mike DeVito last off-season. DeVito is a very similar player, a pure base 3-4 defensive end that excels against the run, but doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, but the difference is DeVito has more of a proven track record. DeVito was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end this season as a part-time player, including 4th against the run, while Jackson was 14th and 10th respectively in a similar role. DeVito was also in the top-10 among 3-4 defensive ends in a similar role with the Jets in 2010-2012, including top-5 positional run grade finishes in 2010 and 2011. Jackson, meanwhile, graded out positively just once from 2009-2012, after being drafted 3rd overall in 2009.

Given that, it’s pretty absurd that Jackson not only matched what DeVito got, but greatly exceeded it, signing a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal with almost as much guaranteed money ($11 million) as DeVito received in total money. That’s far too much to pay for a one-dimensional player who can’t get to the quarterback, especially one who doesn’t have a proven track record. The Chiefs seemed to wake Jackson up by slashing his salary for the 2013 season, but who is to say he doesn’t coast now that he has all this guaranteed money in his pocket and revert to the bust of a former 3rd overall pick he was from 2009-2012? Thomas Dimitroff is a great GM, but this move reeks of Scott Pioli, who was recently hired as the Falcons’ assistant general manager and who reached for Jackson with the 3rd overall pick in 2009.

Grade: C-

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2014 NFL Free Agency Predictions

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

QB Michael Vick 2 years, 10 million with Jets

QB Josh McCown 2 years, 9 million with Bears

QB Josh Freeman 1 year, 2 million with Raiders

RB Ben Tate 4 years, 18 million with Titans

RB Darren McFadden 1 year, 2 million with Bengals

RB Darren Sproles 1 year, 2.5 million with Colts

RB LeGarrette Blount 3 years, 9 million with Texans

RB Andre Brown 3 years, 8 million with Giants

RB Knowshon Moreno 3 years, 12 million with Raiders

RB Maurice Jones-Drew 2 years, 8 million with Dolphins

WR Eric Decker 5 years, 45 million with Jets

WR Hakeem Nicks 2 years, 9 million with Panthers

WR Julian Edelman 4 years, 20 million with Patriots

WR Emmanuel Sanders 3 years, 11 million with Lions

WR Golden Tate 5 years, 26 million with Seahawks

WR James Jones 3 years, 13 million with Chargers

WR Andre Roberts 2 years, 6 million with Jets

WR Sidney Rice 1 year, 2.5 million with Colts

WR Ted Ginn 3 years, 9 million with Redskins

TE Jimmy Graham 5 years, 53 million with Saints

TE Jermichael Finley 1 year, 3 million with Giants

TE Brandon Pettigrew 4 years, 22 million with Jets

TE Scott Chandler 2 years, 6 million with Buccaneers

OT Eugene Monroe 5 years, 48 million with Ravens

OT Jared Veldheer 5 years, 38 million with Cardinals

OT Branden Albert 4 years, 41 million with Dolphins

OT Anthony Collins 4 years, 26 million with Buccaneers

OT Rodger Saffold 5 years, 42 million with Raiders

OT Austin Howard 3 years, 18 million with Jets

OT Zach Strief 2 years, 10 million with Dolphins

OT Michael Oher 1 year, 3 million with Panthers

G Jon Asamoah 3 years, 15 million with Falcons

G Geoff Schwartz 4 years, 16 million with Rams

G Zane Beadles 4 years, 22 million with Colts

G Travelle Wharton 2 years, 7 million with Panthers

G Willie Colon 1 year, 2 million with Vikings

G Uche Nwaneri 1 year, 2 million with Chiefs

C Alex Mack 5 years, 45 million with Browns

C Brian De La Puente 4 years, 24 million with Colts

C Evan Dietrich-Smith 3 years, 18 million with Giants

C Jonathan Goodwin 1 year, 2 million with Saints

DE Greg Hardy 6 years, 79 million with Panthers

DE Michael Johnson 5 years, 54 million with Buccaneers

DE Arthur Jones 5 years, 35 million with Redskins

DE LaMarr Houston 4 years, 24 million with Packers

DE Jared Allen 2 years, 10 million with Broncos

DE Tyson Jackson 3 years, 14 million with Chiefs

DE Willie Young 3 years, 12 million with Lions

DE Justin Tuck 3 years, 15 million with Giants

DE Corey Wootton 3 years, 12 million with Bears

DE Robert Ayers 3 years, 14 million with Jaguars

OLB LaMarr Woodley 1 year, 3 million with Falcons

OLB Shaun Phillips 1 year, 2 million with Raiders

DE Antonio Smith 2 years, 8 million with Chargers

DE Anthony Spencer 1 year, 4.5 million with Texans

DT Henry Melton 4 year, 30 million with Bears

DT Jason Hatcher 4 years, 32 million with Dolphins

DT Randy Starks 4 years, 30 million with Falcons

DT Paul Soliai 3 years, 16 million with Vikings

DT Clinton McDonald 3 years, 13 million with Seahawks

DT Jonathan Babineaux 2 years, 8 million with Falcons

DT Tony McDaniel 3 years, 11 million with Seahawks

DT Linval Joseph 5 years, 32 million with Raiders

DT BJ Raji 4 years, 24 million with Raiders

DT Earl Mitchell 2 years, 6 million with Dolphins

DT Kevin Williams 1 year, 3.5 million with Patriots

DT Vance Walker 3 years, 9 million with Buccaneers

DT Pat Sims 3 years, 9 million with Giants

OLB Brian Orakpo 5 years, 45 million with Redskins

OLB Jason Worilds 5 years, 40 million with Steelers

OLB Calvin Pace 1 year, 2 million with Jets

MLB Karlos Dansby 3 years, 17 million with Titans

MLB Brandon Spikes 2 years, 8 million with Texans

MLB Daryl Smith 3 years, 15 million with Ravens

MLB Jon Beason 3 years, 14 million with Giants

MLB Perry Riley 4 years, 20 million with Redskins

CB Captain Munnerlyn 4 years, 18 million with Panthers

CB Charles Tillman 2 years, 9 million with Buccaneers

CB Walter Thurmond 4 years, 20 million with Chargers

CB Antonio Cromartie 3 years, 14 million with Vikings

CB Tarell Brown 4 years, 18 million with 49ers

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 4 years, 40 million with Broncos

CB Vontae Davis 5 years, 49 million with Colts

CB Aqib Talib 5 years, 47 million with Redskins

CB Alterraun Verner 5 years, 52 million with Jets

CB Nolan Carroll 3 years, 8 million with Steelers

S Michael Mitchell 5 years, 24 million with Redskins

S Stevie Brown 4 years, 16 million with Giants

S Donte Whitner 3 years, 16 million with Browns

S Antoine Bethea 4 years, 24 million with Colts

S Jairus Byrd 5 years, 46 million with Falcons

S TJ Ward 5 years, 42 million with Broncos

S Malcolm Jenkins 4 years, 20 million with Eagles

S Chris Clemons 2 years, 6 million with Jets

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