2014 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Jacksonville, St. Louis). They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.20% rate, as opposed to 77.16% for their opponents, a differential of -4.96%.

Last week, they were blown out by the score of 45-21 in Philadelphia. That was in embarrassing fashion on national television on Monday Night and now they have to turn around and play another game 5 days later. They won’t have time to bounce back and teams coming off blowout losses on MNF are horrible at covering the spread the following week, as teams are 18-27 ATS off of a MNF loss of 21+ or more since 2002, including 6-14 ATS as favorites. The line moved from 3 to 2 (and 1.5 in some places) from last week, which is a significant line movement, but that was deservedly so.

The Falcons aren’t great either, moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.64% that ranks 20th in the NFL, but the Panthers have no business being favored here, even at home. The Panthers aren’t favored by a ton (2 points), but that actually puts them in a bad spot. Teams are 36-59 ATS as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 going into a bye since 2002. Between that and last week’s blowout loss on Monday Night, the Panthers are in a horrible spot to cover the spread this week, even before you take into account that we’re getting line value with the Falcons as underdogs here.

The Falcons, conversely, are in a great spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I like the Falcons a good amount here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of -2.76% that ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are also 5-4, but they’re significantly better. They move the chains at a 73.99% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for their opponents, a differential of 4.76% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That suggests that the Dolphins should be favored by more than the 5.5 points they are favored by here.

However, the Dolphins are in a terrible spot, as they head to Denver next week, while the Bills host the lowly Jets. Teams are 59-42 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while divisional home favorites are 98-114 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m going to go with the trends and take the Bills, fading the public in the process, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

The public is all over the Seahawks here and most people assume the defending Super Bowl champs will win straight up here in Kansas City. Then why do the odds makers (who always make money in the long run) have them favored here by 1? Well, it’s because the sharps (who also always make money in the long run) are all over the Chiefs. That’s because the Chiefs are the superior team and at home here. The Chiefs rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential at 76.98%, as opposed to 70.34% for their opponents, a differential of 6.64%.

That might sound absurd considering they’re just 6-3, but they have a +66 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank 7th moving the chains at a 76.17% rate, as opposed to 72.28% for their opponents, a differential of 3.89%.

That’s before you even take into account that the Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.68 points per game. This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-24 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-17 ATS as road underdogs off a home game, and 3-12 ATS as road underdogs off a home game and before another home game.

This is only the 2nd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the only game was last year’s in San Francisco). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Bobby Wagner, Brandon Mebane, and possibly Kam Chancellor this week doesn’t help) and Kansas City is very good. Also, while Seattle has Arizona up next (even though it’s a home game, it’s a bigger game for them), the Chiefs have a much easier game in Oakland up next. Teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, especially when they’re on an underdog, and it definitely makes sense here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Seattle Seahawks 9

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 11

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 240 30 15 29 18 3 0 80.60%
2 GB 187 32 14 31 8 3 2 79.06%
3 DEN 209 36 11 44 8 4 0 78.53%
4 IND 235 32 20 36 15 4 1 77.84%
5 KC 190 24 14 40 8 2 0 76.98%
6 PIT 230 27 18 43 13 5 0 76.49%
7 SEA 186 25 19 35 9 2 1 76.17%
8 BAL 218 28 22 35 14 6 0 76.16%
9 CHI 200 22 9 34 18 9 0 76.03%
10 DAL 216 28 20 36 18 2 1 76.01%
11 NE 199 26 25 39 6 4 0 75.25%
12 SD 177 23 14 40 9 3 0 75.19%
13 ATL 185 24 14 38 14 6 1 74.11%
14 MIA 198 21 23 32 14 8 0 73.99%
15 WAS 187 22 16 40 17 4 0 73.08%
16 NYG 193 24 9 49 16 6 0 73.06%
17 SF 180 19 20 41 10 4 0 72.63%
18 ARZ 180 21 18 50 7 1 0 72.56%
19 CAR 206 20 19 48 17 3 0 72.20%
20 PHI 201 24 17 46 21 3 0 72.12%
21 DET 172 19 22 40 12 3 0 71.27%
22 STL 169 17 13 44 16 4 0 70.72%
23 CLE 179 22 18 52 8 6 0 70.53%
24 TB 166 18 13 39 19 5 1 70.50%
25 HOU 167 19 18 44 14 3 0 70.19%
26 CIN 169 21 21 44 14 3 0 69.85%
27 NYJ 190 18 19 50 18 6 0 69.10%
28 MIN 171 15 19 50 12 4 0 68.63%
29 TEN 152 16 13 49 13 4 2 67.47%
30 JAX 182 18 15 57 22 6 0 66.67%
31 BUF 156 18 21 53 14 4 1 65.17%
32 OAK 140 16 11 55 19 2 0 64.20%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 180 17 20 51 19 3 0 67.93%
2 DET 168 14 15 49 14 4 1 68.68%
3 PHI 184 23 14 57 16 6 0 69.00%
4 MIA 162 18 16 39 19 6 0 69.23%
5 CLE 187 19 16 51 17 6 1 69.36%
6 KC 171 14 19 44 8 7 0 70.34%
7 ARZ 179 19 13 46 19 4 0 70.71%
8 DEN 185 23 15 53 12 4 1 70.99%
9 BAL 191 20 18 46 15 5 1 71.28%
10 IND 179 24 11 50 13 7 0 71.48%
11 MIN 172 22 14 48 12 3 0 71.59%
12 SEA 174 19 16 42 12 3 1 72.28%
13 WAS 174 24 13 51 8 3 0 72.53%
14 DAL 183 23 11 44 17 6 0 72.54%
15 NYJ 185 29 18 54 7 1 0 72.79%
16 JAX 205 26 21 48 11 5 1 72.87%
17 NE 199 21 18 35 18 9 0 73.33%
18 HOU 197 23 14 42 21 3 0 73.33%
19 PIT 203 24 23 44 13 1 1 73.46%
20 SF 172 22 9 42 16 2 0 73.76%
21 CIN 211 22 22 38 14 5 1 74.44%
22 STL 183 22 17 38 11 2 0 75.09%
23 NYG 191 27 18 36 16 2 0 75.17%
24 TEN 209 24 19 42 11 4 0 75.40%
25 SD 180 23 12 37 9 7 1 75.46%
26 OAK 195 26 21 38 8 4 0 75.68%
27 ATL 200 25 22 33 16 1 0 75.76%
28 NO 188 23 17 38 10 1 1 75.90%
29 TB 209 27 26 34 12 1 0 76.38%
30 GB 209 22 12 30 18 10 0 76.74%
31 CHI 187 28 23 25 13 4 0 76.79%
32 CAR 218 32 17 38 16 3 0 77.16%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.54%
2 KC 6.64%
3 IND 6.36%
4 BAL 4.88%
5 MIA 4.76%
6 NO 4.70%
7 SEA 3.89%
8 DAL 3.48%
9 PHI 3.12%
10 PIT 3.03%
11 DET 2.59%
12 GB 2.32%
13 NE 1.92%
14 ARZ 1.85%
15 CLE 1.17%
16 WAS 0.55%
17 SD -0.28%
18 CHI -0.76%
19 SF -1.14%
20 ATL -1.64%
21 NYG -2.11%
22 BUF -2.76%
23 MIN -2.95%
24 HOU -3.14%
25 NYJ -3.69%
26 STL -4.37%
27 CIN -4.59%
28 CAR -4.96%
29 TB -5.88%
30 JAX -6.20%
31 TEN -7.93%
32 OAK -11.49%

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2014 Week 10 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 9-4

Straight Up: 9-4

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 4-2

Low Confidence: 3-0

No Confidence: 1-1

Upset Picks: 1-1

On the season

Against the Spread: 91-55-1 (.623)

Straight Up: 98-48-1 (.671)

Pick of the Week: 6-4

High Confidence: 7-6

Medium Confidence: 35-13

Low Confidence: 21-16-1

No Confidence: 22-16

Upset Picks: 12-11

Survivor Picks: 8-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, SEA, BAL, KC, CIN, DEN)

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off that, teams are 43-28 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 16-8 ATS off of a loss as road favorites. On top of that, the Broncos also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to St. Louis on deck. Teams are 80-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 49-32 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 20-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Denver -7.5).

On the other hand, all of the public money is on the Broncos and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, winless teams this late in the season tend to be a solid bet. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 32-15 ATS since 1989. Teams like this tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Raiders could easily be all three. I’m going with the Broncos because I think we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with them as 11 point favorites, but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -11

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, a differential of 0.94%. However, the Rams aren’t very good either, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 75.52% for their opponents, a differential of -3.72% that ranks 26th in the NFL. This line is also at 7 for two reasons. One, the Rams are a little overrated as well. Two, the odds makers know Arizona isn’t as good as their record and doesn’t want to give sharp bettors +10. The public is all over Arizona, because they’re caught up in records, and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense.

The Rams are also in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, the Rams are coming off of an emotional win over the 49ers and might not be at 100% or have nearly the focus they would if they had lost. Teams are 48-45 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road win, as opposed to 93-50 ATS for road underdogs off of a road win. Going off that, teams are 26-44 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a straight up win as double digit underdogs. I’m taking the Rams out of principle, but I’m not confident.

Update: It was brought to my attention that the Rams are in their 3rd straight road game instead of their 2nd. This doesn’t hurt them, as teams in their 3rd or 3 road games are 60-64 ATS, but it doesn’t help them. This doesn’t change my pick because I’m still fading the public and the overrated Cardinals out of principle, but it makes me even less confident about the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing Romo last week in a pathetic showing against the Cardinals, the Cowboys still rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.71% rate, as opposed to 73.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.41%.

On the opposite side, the Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 73.26% for their opponents, a differential of -6.60%. They have covered just 9 of their last 26 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 26 games, they’ve lost 17 of them by double digits. On top of that, Dallas is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-4 ATS in London games, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

There are three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, it’s tough to judge how Romo will be coming off this kind of injury and if his supporting cast will give 100% against a bad team in another country with Romo now back. Two, I don’t really have any strong trends that suggest the Cowboys are the right side. Three, the Jaguars have been playing a lot better of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently.

Over the past 6 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.72% rate, as opposed to 68.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.09%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. The Cowboys should still beat them by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That’s better than the Lions, who move the chains at a 71.13% rate, as opposed to 68.51% for their opponents, a differential of 2.62% that ranks 10th in the NFL. And despite that, this line says these two teams are even at 3 points, which isn’t true.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in a bunch better spot this week. While the Lions have to go to 7-1 Arizona next week, the Dolphins host the Bills. Teams are 122-91 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Conversely, teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The only reason this isn’t a high confidence or pick of the week type pick is because Detroit gets Calvin Johnson back this week.

Miami Dolphins 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Panthers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)

The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Even last season, when he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, he was only Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked quarterback. The Eagles’ offense didn’t miss a beat last week when Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez came in. It’s really starting to look like Foles is primarily just a product of the system and the Eagles’ supporting cast.

This isn’t to say that the Eagles won’t miss Foles and that Mark Sanchez will be exactly as good, but it could easily not be a big loss. At the same time, the Eagles have gotten Jason Kelce back from injury, will be getting Evan Mathis from injury, and have finally gotten LeSean McCoy going on the ground. The Eagles have only moved the chains at a 72.34% rate this season and I don’t expect that to get any worse over the next 6-8 weeks. If their defense can continue playing well, as they currently allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.58% rate, they shouldn’t be a worse team this week than they were a few weeks ago. They’re not as good as their 6-2 record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re a lot better than the Panthers.

The Panthers rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 77.89% for their opponents, a differential of -4.10%. However, they’re in a much better spot here this week than the Eagles. While Philadelphia has to go to Green Bay next week, Carolina just hosts Atlanta. Teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Teams are also 45-78 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs.  As long as this line is a touchdown or more, I like the Panthers a good deal.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Medium

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