2014 Week 17 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7)

This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes sense here. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 71.37% for their opponents, a differential of -1.80. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 29th, moving the chains at a 65.35% rate, as opposed to 72.61% for their opponents, a differential of -7.26%.

This line is too high because you even take into account that the Texans are essentially down to 4th string quarterback Case Keenum, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, and Tom Savage all out for the season. Keenum was able to lead this team to victory last week, but that was mostly because they got an uncharacteristically good performance from their defense, which held a previously efficient offense to a 56.67% rate of moving the chains. They can’t count on that again this week.

Keenum completed just 20 of 42 for 185 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception last week and the offense moved the chains at a 55.88% rate. Not only does that suggest that the Texans’ victory last week wasn’t as impressive as the final score suggested, which would make that line movement a huge overreaction, but it suggests that the Texans offense could really struggle to cover this spread this week. Keenum could be better in his 2nd start, as he’ll have more time with the offense in practice this week. Last week’s start was just a week after being called off of St. Louis’ practice squad and he only had a week of practice with the offense since September, after he was a final cut of the Texans after the pre-season. However, he shouldn’t be favored by 10 points over anyone. I have a good amount of confidence in the Jaguars as long as this line is 10 or more.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +10

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game decided by 3 or fewer points and the 5th in the last 6. This week, going into Miami, the Jets could be completely flat after coming so close and falling short in their Super Bowl.

On top of that, this line is way too low. I don’t understand this at all. The Dolphins were 7 point favorites in New York a few weeks ago and now they’re only 5 point favorites at home in Miami. Sure, they didn’t cover last time around, but they still did get a tough road victory. The Dolphins haven’t been great in recent weeks, getting blown out at home by the Ravens and on the road in New England, but they had a strong performance last week at home against the Vikings. The final score says they only won by 2, but they won the first down battle 36-20.

Now on the season, the Dolphins rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 2.40%. The Jets, conversely, rank all the way down at 27, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 72.08% for their opponents, a differential of -4.11%. We’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins, who don’t have any distractions during week 17 with their coach’s future publicly assured and should be able to take care of a drastically inferior opponent who could be flat off of last week’s close loss with Rex Ryan likely to be fired after the game.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Miami -5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9)

The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at a 74.43% rate in Cutler’s 14 starts, which was 11th in the NFL over that period of time (the defense was way worse). Clausen, meanwhile, was horrible in his only NFL action in Carolina in 2010 and did not seem to be a viable long-term solution or any sort of short-term upgrade. It was likely just a last dish effort for head coach Marc Trestman and his coaching staff to save their jobs.

It didn’t work at all. Not only did Clausen struggle in a 20-14 home loss to the Lions, completing 23 of 39 for 181 yards for 2 touchdowns and an interception, leading the Bears’ offense to a 67.86% rate of moving the chains. On top of that, Clausen suffered a serious concussion, spending the night in the hospital and forcing Trestman to go back to Cutler this week. It’s not going to help Trestman save his job because he’s probably gone regardless of the result of this game, but Cutler probably gives them the best chance to win this game.

It’s possible that Cutler would have struggled just as much as Clausen did last week as the Lions have one of the league’s best defenses, but the Bears’ offense was pretty solid through the first 14 games and even if you take last week’s game into account, we’re still getting a significant amount of line value with the Bears here. The Bears rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.04% rate, as opposed to 76.02% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 28th, moving the chains at a 69.68% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -4.52%.

Despite the fact that the Bears rank significantly better in that aspect, the Vikings are 6.5 point favorites here. We’re getting significant line value with the Bears. There aren’t a ton of good situational trends in play in games this week as most of them rely on upcoming distractions on the schedule, which obviously aren’t a factor week 17, but the Vikings are in a bad spot. Teams with losing records are 41-63 ATS as favorites off of 3 straight covers. It’s a weird one, but it does make some sense.

Losing teams obviously aren’t good teams, but they can be overrated by the odds makers off of 3 straight covers, especially if they’re favorites. In the Vikings past 3 weeks, they’ve kept it close with Miami and Detroit and beat the Jets by 6. It’s not unimpressive, but it’s not enough for them to deserve to be 6.5 point favorites here. They were only 5 point favorites against the Jets and they still needed a pick six and an 86 yard touchdown in overtime to even cover by 1 point. I have a decent amount of confidence in the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13)

The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including this year, and the impact that the absence of TY Hilton would have. I was desperate for a Pick of the Week in a tough week for games and I didn’t want to go with a team like Washington, Chicago, or Houston, the types of teams that had burned me in the past few weeks, even though everything I had told me they were the right side and I was still up big on the season (all 3 covered and Washington and Houston won straight up as big home underdogs).

I apologize for straying from what’s gotten me this far and not trusting what I do. Looking back, I should have made another team Pick of the Week and made Indianapolis a lower confidence pick (Dallas was still 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010 going into that one). However, I really like the Colts chances of bouncing back in a big way this week for a number of reasons. There a lot of differences between this week’s game and last week’s game and I feel really good about this one. This is Indianapolis as Pick of the Week take 2.

For one, TY Hilton is expected back after missing last week with a hamstring problem. Teams generally bounce back off of a blowout loss like the one the Colts suffered last week anyway, going 49-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Colts might not necessarily be overlooked by the 2-13 Titans, but they should be embarrassed after what happened last week (and they’re 13-1 ATS off of a loss since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck arrived in 2012 anyway) and I also think they’re undervalued, as just 6.5 point favorites here.

Despite what happened last week, the Colts still rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.33% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 3.90%. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been horrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.50% rate, as opposed to 75.39% for their opponents, a differential of -8.89% that ranks 31st in the NFL. This line is too low. Speaking of Tennessee being horrible, the Colts have always beaten up on bad teams in the Luck/Pagano era, going 17-4 ATS against teams with .500 or worse records since 2012, as long as it’s week 4 or later (.500 or worse teams in the first few weeks of the season aren’t always necessarily bad). The Colts have had a lot of trouble with good teams like the Cowboys over the past 3 years, but they shouldn’t have much trouble blowing out the Titans.

On top of that, the Colts are in their 2nd straight road game this week, as opposed to last week when they were in their first. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 82-63 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss as underdogs since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

The only thing the Titans really have going for them is their long losing streak, as they’ve lost 9 straight. Teams are 32-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a losing streak of 9 or more games. Again, this is a counterintuitive one, but it makes sense for the same reasons why teams covering off of blowout losses makes sense, teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this spot. However, we’ve already established they aren’t undervalued and, while they may be embarrassed, I don’t see the Colts overlooking the Titans after what happened last week. I’m still confident enough in the Colts to make them by Pick of the Week as long as this line is less than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)

The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an infinite amount of 16 game seasons, they’d make the playoffs more often than not. It didn’t work out that way for them this year, but they’re still better than their record, which gives us value with them here as mere 3.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been absolutely terrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.42% rate, as opposed to 74.75% for their opponents, a differential of -8.33% that ranks 30th in the NFL. The Saints have a horrible defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.99% rate, but their offense has moved the chains at a significantly better rate than their opponents, as they’ve moved them at a 79.17% rate, among the best in the league, led by quarterback Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in completion percentage at 69.6 and has an outside shot of finishing with his 3rd career season of 70%+ completion percentage, as many as every other quarterback in NFL history combined. The Saints differential of 2.19% ranks 11th in the NFL. This line is way too low, especially when you take into account the Buccaneers’ home struggles in recent years. They are 14-32 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. This season, they move the chains at a 67.20% rate at home, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a pathetic differential of -6.99%.

Why are the Saints 6-9 if they move the chains so well? Well, their defense has been horrible, but we’ve already established their offense has done more than enough to make up for it, so why isn’t it showing up in the standings? Well, a -11 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, and a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less have a lot to do with it. Fortunately, those are much easier problems to fix than pure talent level, even from one week to another. Drew Brees is 23-7 ATS off of a loss with Sean Payton on the sideline since 2008 anyway. That talent level should shine through here against a drastically inferior opponent with minimal homefield advantage. I have a lot of confidence in New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at New York Giants (6-9)

This line has flipped from Philadelphia being favored by 3 to New York being favored by 3 over the course of the past week, a huge line movement. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. Would this line have moved 6 points if Cody Parkey, who had missed 2 field goals all year coming in, didn’t miss 2 makeable field goals last week in Washington and the Eagles had won? Probably not.

The Eagles moved the chains at a 82.50% rate last week, as opposed to 77.42% for Washington, and could have won easily if not for those 2 missed field goals and a couple of 50/50 balls to DeSean Jackson going the Eagles way. Teams tend to cover off of huge upset losses anyway, going 88-61 ATS since 1989 off of a los as 6+ point road favorites. That’s largely because those upsets are often fluky, yet still precede huge line movements, as is the case here.

After last week’s 30 first down performance, the Eagles now move the chains at a 72.29% rate on the season, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of 0.83% that ranks 14th in the NFL. They now have a very similar rate of moving the chains in games started by Nick Foles (72.34%), as compared to games started by Mark Sanchez (72.22%), though Sanchez has faced an easier schedule and had a healthier offensive line in front of him.

The Eagles weren’t the type of team that deserved to be 8 point favorites in Washington last week, nor were they the type of team that deserved to be 3 point favorites in New York this week, but this line has shifted too much the other way. The Giants rank 17th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.60% rate, as opposed to 72.65% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05%. This line suggests these two teams are even and that not quite the case, even before you get in to the fact that the Giants have historically not had the same type of homefield advantage that the average team has, at least not in the last decade in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era.

Since 2004, the Giants are 53-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.09 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. This isn’t unique to the Giants, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 76-86 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.89 points per game and going 62-97 ATS. On the road, they are 79-82, getting outscored by an average of 1.91 points per game and going 85-74 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 26-15 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs. The Eagles should be the right side here.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Medium

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 332 49 32 47 11 5 3 79.54%
2 NO 376 46 22 55 27 7 0 79.17%
3 PIT 361 41 30 58 16 6 0 78.52%
4 NE 347 47 34 62 13 4 0 77.71%
5 DAL 322 49 26 54 24 3 1 77.45%
6 DEN 335 51 25 66 20 6 0 76.74%
7 BAL 323 41 32 54 19 8 0 76.31%
8 SEA 312 39 35 58 12 7 1 75.65%
9 MIA 338 36 35 53 22 11 0 75.56%
10 IND 355 48 28 64 31 8 1 75.33%
11 ATL 314 39 31 62 20 6 1 74.63%
12 SD 306 36 25 70 20 4 0 74.19%
13 KC 294 35 25 66 17 7 0 74.10%
14 CHI 310 38 12 67 29 14 0 74.04%
15 CAR 330 31 33 69 23 3 0 73.82%
16 NYG 314 41 22 74 27 11 0 72.60%
17 PHI 333 40 34 69 36 4 0 72.29%
18 CIN 294 37 31 70 23 5 0 71.96%
19 DET 287 30 38 64 19 8 0 71.08%
20 SF 285 28 29 69 23 8 0 70.81%
21 WAS 298 31 26 73 27 10 0 70.75%
22 MIN 273 28 33 72 19 5 2 69.68%
23 STL 273 31 28 76 24 5 0 69.57%
24 HOU 289 31 35 77 20 7 1 69.57%
25 ARZ 276 25 32 87 12 1 0 69.52%
26 NYJ 271 24 32 77 23 6 1 67.97%
27 CLE 278 28 30 87 21 9 0 67.55%
28 TEN 249 25 21 81 25 9 2 66.50%
29 TB 245 26 22 74 32 8 1 66.42%
30 BUF 257 28 37 81 22 8 2 65.52%
31 JAX 258 23 25 87 26 11 0 65.35%
32 OAK 238 25 22 100 27 5 0 63.07%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 288 26 34 82 30 4 1 67.53%
2 ARZ 283 29 30 74 25 8 0 69.49%
3 SEA 262 25 22 77 21 5 1 69.49%
4 DET 286 28 22 79 23 8 1 70.25%
5 KC 289 25 36 73 11 11 0 70.56%
6 STL 285 29 27 72 24 8 0 70.56%
7 CLE 326 33 33 78 29 7 1 70.81%
8 BAL 295 29 35 68 20 9 1 70.90%
9 DEN 301 36 28 79 23 6 1 71.10%
10 IND 300 40 18 82 23 13 0 71.43%
11 PHI 316 42 23 84 27 9 0 71.46%
12 HOU 316 33 20 76 33 10 0 71.52%
13 NE 313 29 33 61 24 15 0 72.00%
14 OAK 295 42 34 79 13 5 0 72.01%
15 NYJ 277 38 30 76 12 3 1 72.08%
16 SF 282 34 19 70 26 7 0 72.15%
17 CIN 320 32 30 71 23 8 2 72.43%
18 JAX 306 36 34 70 18 6 1 72.61%
19 NYG 303 37 29 67 26 6 0 72.65%
20 WAS 287 42 23 76 18 4 0 73.11%
21 MIA 291 36 30 56 24 8 2 73.15%
22 CAR 293 39 27 67 23 4 0 73.29%
23 SD 292 35 29 63 18 8 1 73.32%
24 PIT 295 37 30 65 18 3 1 73.94%
25 DAL 295 38 17 63 28 8 0 74.16%
26 MIN 309 36 27 70 19 4 0 74.19%
27 GB 316 34 24 58 26 11 0 74.63%
28 TB 333 40 39 61 22 4 0 74.75%
29 TEN 341 42 36 68 16 4 1 75.39%
30 ATL 341 39 36 53 28 3 0 76.00%
31 CHI 310 45 37 46 23 6 0 76.02%
32 NO 327 41 30 59 16 4 1 76.99%

 

Differential

1 SEA 6.16%
2 NE 5.71%
3 DEN 5.64%
4 BAL 5.41%
5 GB 4.91%
6 PIT 4.57%
7 IND 3.90%
8 KC 3.54%
9 DAL 3.29%
10 MIA 2.40%
11 NO 2.19%
12 SD 0.87%
13 DET 0.83%
14 PHI 0.83%
15 CAR 0.53%
16 ARZ 0.03%
17 NYG -0.05%
18 CIN -0.47%
19 STL -1.00%
20 SF -1.33%
21 ATL -1.37%
22 HOU -1.95%
23 CHI -1.97%
24 BUF -2.01%
25 WAS -2.36%
26 CLE -3.26%
27 NYJ -4.11%
28 MIN -4.52%
29 JAX -7.26%
30 TB -8.33%
31 TEN -8.89%
32 OAK -8.94%

2014 Week 16 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 7-8-1

Straight Up: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-0

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 2-3

No Confidence: 1-3-1

Upset Picks: 0-1

On the season

Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559)

Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632)

Pick of the Week: 8-7-1

High Confidence: 8-10

Medium Confidence: 49-28

Low Confidence: 32-28-2

No Confidence: 35-31-1

Upset Picks: 17-24