2015 NFL Free Agency

Washington Redskins sign CB Chris Culliver

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

I thought Culliver was one of the underrated players in free agency and would be a good value signing. He was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been healthy, missing all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro.

Apparently his talent was not a secret around the league and he managed to sign a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal with the Redskins with 16 million guaranteed. It’s a lot more than I expected and it’s not a great value or anything, but I don’t think it’s a bad deal either, especially since the Redskins needed cornerback help more than many any team in the NFL. Culliver has shown well in every season he’s been healthy in the league. He doesn’t have much of an injury history outside that torn ACL, though it’s obviously concerning that he has that on his resume. He’s also gotten better every season he’s been healthy in the league, which suggests that he’s an ascending player, especially only going into his age 27 season. This deal isn’t bad.

Grade: B-

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St. Louis Rams sign OLB Akeem Ayers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

Akeem Ayers, a 2011 2nd round pick, graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league with the Titans, including 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013. He showed versatility as a base package run stopper and someone who could either cover in sub packages or rush the passer from the edge. However, the Titans’ incompetent new regime didn’t seem to be able to figure out how to use him for whatever reason and he played just 10 snaps for them before being traded to the Patriots for a swap of late round picks mid-season. In New England, they had no problem figuring out how to use him and he provided much needed depth as a 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average on 390 snaps. There’s a reason why the Patriots were Super Bowl winners this year and the Titans went 2-14 (well a lot of reasons, but still).

Ayers moves back to a 4-3 in St. Louis and will probably play a largely base package role as an outside linebacker next to James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree. Ayers probably won’t have a lot of edge rush opportunities in sub packages given that the Rams have Robert Quinn, Chris Long, and William Hayes. He also probably won’t be used in coverage much in sub packages because that’s not his strength and the Rams like both Laurinaitis and Ogletree in those sub package roles. However, 2 years, 6 million is still very reasonable for an above average two-down player and the added versatility definitely doesn’t hurt.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams sign DT Nick Fairley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

The Rams had Kendall Langford as a starting caliber player playing in rotation with Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers at defensive tackle last season. They cut him this off-season because he was owed 6 million and that didn’t seem worth it for a player who only played 494 snaps last season. The Rams have found their replacement for Langford here by giving Fairley a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. The Rams get a cheaper, better, younger replacement and I think it’s a great deal.

Nick Fairley has been a frustrating player during his 4 year career. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season.

That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. However, this one-year prove it deal has the best chance to get his elite upside out of him. He’ll work in heavy rotation with Brockers and Donald at defensive tackle and can be a dominant player on 500-600 snaps this season. Between that trio, Robert Quinn, a hopefully healthy Chris Long, William Hayes, and free agent signing Akeem Ayers, who can rush the passer from the edge in sub packages, the Rams have an absolutely loaded defensive line, which will continue to mask their issues in the back 7.

Grade: A

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Washington Redskins sign DT Terrance Knighton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Terrance Knighton was one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their 12th ranked in 2014. I expected him to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million over 5 years, but he didn’t come close to that because of concerns about his weight. The big defensive tackle known as Pot Roast reportedly played around 330 last season, which seems to be a comfortable playing weight for him, given how well he played last season, but when a player is that big, there’s always a chance his weight gets out of control and it’s very possible that he’s gotten out of shape since the season ended.

That’s a very real concern, but this 1-year, 4 million dollar deal is still an absolute steal. Not only is it significantly less money annually that what I was expecting him to get, but there’s no risk beyond this season if he does show up to Training Camp overweight. On top of that, the fact that he could only get this type of deal could serve as a wakeup call for him and I like that he’s betting on himself with this type of deal. He’ll have every reason to remain motivated this season and that should translate to continued strong play. Knighton will play nose tackle in Washington’s 3-4 base and is a good enough pass rusher for his size that he can also stay on the field in sub packages and rush the passer. By adding Knighton, Stephen Paea, and Ricky Jean-Francois on cost effective deals this off-season, to go with Jason Hatcher, the Redskins have quietly built a solid defensive line.

Grade: A

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Houston Texans sign S Rahim Moore

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Given that it was a weak safety market, especially after Devin McCourty re-signed with the Patriots, I thought Rahim Moore had a good chance to be overpaid. There was an argument to be made that he was the best safety that hit the open market this off-season. Given that, the Texans deserve credit for landing him on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with nothing guaranteed past 2015. Compare that with the 4-year, 24 million dollar deal with 10.5 million guaranteed that Houston’s division rival Tennessee gave to Da’Norris Searcy. I thought Moore would get at least that, if not more.

Moore was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2012 in his 2nd year in the league (only his age 22 season) and it looked like the 2012 2nd round pick had a very bright future. Moore hasn’t quite lived up to the upside he showed in 2012 over the past 2 seasons, and his career was briefly stalled by a frightening, rare leg injury that could have cost him his leg or his life. However, he’s still graded out around average in each of the last 2 seasons on Pro Football Focus and made all 16 starts in his return from injury this season. Besides, he’s only going into his age 25 season so his best football could definitely still be ahead of him. He’ll pair well with box-type safety DJ Swearinger in the Texans’ secondary.

Grade: A

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Indianapolis Colts sign WR Andre Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

What’s with the Colts and signing old skill position players? First Frank Gore and now Andre Johnson? I get that they’re in win now mode and had needs at both running back and wide receiver, but both deals were overpays. Johnson gets 21 million over 3 years with this deal, including 10 million guaranteed. I thought he’d get something closer to what Anquan Boldin got from the 49ers last off-season, a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed.

Johnson is going into his age 34 season coming off the worst statistical season of his career in terms of yards per game since his rookie year. He caught 85 passes for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 targets (60.3%) and 487 routes run (1.92 yards per route run) and only graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 40th ranked wide receiver. He’s currently #12 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list and likely Hall-of-Fame bound someday, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson is a declining player who could soon become a rapidly declining player. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was losing snaps to talented 2nd year receiver Donte Moncrief late in the season.

Grade: C

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Kansas City Chiefs sign WR Jeremy Maclin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Maclin had a great 2014 season, as he had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver. However, he’s a one-year wonder. From 2009-2013, he missed 21 games with injury, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. 2014 was also the first season in his career in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He was terrible in 2012, grading out 101st out of 105 eligible.

He obviously deserved to be a hot commodity on the open market this off-season, but I think the Chiefs overpaid with this 5-year, 55 million dollar deal that guarantees him 22.5 million, even though the Chiefs have huge problems at wide receiver. The fact that the Eagles, who have issues at wide receiver at well, were only willing to offer 9 million annually to Maclin is concerning, as is the fact that Maclin never did well before being in Chip Kelly’s scheme last season and now he returns to Andy Reid’s scheme, which he didn’t do that well in from 2009-2012 to start his career. Couple that with his injury history and his overall past struggles and this isn’t a very good deal. The Chiefs appear to have overpaid out of desperation, which isn’t a good move, especially for a team that doesn’t have a ton of cap flexibility.

Grade: C-

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Pittsburgh Steelers extend QB Ben Roethlisberger

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Steelers, Uncategorized

Roethlisberger’s contract was originally scheduled to expire after 2015. This new deal will keep him in Pittsburgh through 2019 and pay him 99 million over those 5 years, with escalators that can make it worth up to 108 million. It’s a lot of money, obviously, but it’s the going rate for an average or better starting quarterback. If you have a quarterback that you want to keep long-term, you need to give him this kind of deal because you know that someone else will on the open market if you don’t, given how today’s NFL is. You just better hope that the quarterback you’re giving this deal of deal to is closer to Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning than they are to Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick.

I think Roethlisberger is closer to the former. Roethlisberger’s issue used to be injuries, as a result of his playing style. He rarely suffered significant injuries, but he played all 16 games just once in 9 seasons from 2004-2012. However, Todd Haley has implemented an offense that has more quicker, short throws and forces the ball out of Roethlisberger’s hand quicker, which has led to him playing all 32 games over the past 2 seasons combined. It took a little bit for him to be comfortable in the new scheme, with the new playing style, but he’s completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 7.73 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions over the past 2 seasons and is coming off of a season in which he had a 103.3 QB rating, 2nd best in his career.

Last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked quarterback. That’s the highest he’s ever ranked in their 8-year history, but he’s always been very solid, ranking 4th in 2007, 26th in 2008, 6th in 2009, 6th in 2010, 7th in 2011, 7th in 2012, and 11th in 2013. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and this contract pays him appropriately. It might seem slightly concerning that this contract takes him through his age 37 season, but more and more quarterbacks have played well into their mid and late 30s over the past decade or so and the guaranteed money doesn’t run until that season. This is a good deal.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns extend DE John Hughes

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Hughes was a 3rd round pick by the Browns in 2012. Hughes struggled as a rookie in a 4-3, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 69th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible on 530 snaps, but he’s done better over the past two seasons as a 3-4 defensive end. In 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end on just 402 snaps, in a smaller, rotational role. That earned him a starting job going into 2014, but he was limited to just 5 games by injury, though he played well when on the field.

Hughes doesn’t have a huge injury history though and could absolutely bounce back in 2015 as a starter on the 3-man defensive line with Phil Taylor and Desmond Bryant. There’s a chance he could finally have the breakout year that the Browns were expecting from him last season and that would have caused him to command a lot of fair amount of money on the open market. Given that, this 4-year, 14.4 million dollar extension makes a lot of sense. It’s a smart, forward thinking move by the Browns that could absolutely pay off and, worst case scenario, he’s only guaranteed 3.56 million.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs extend G Ben Grubbs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

The Chiefs traded a 5th round pick to the Saints for Ben Grubbs last week. I said it was a decent move for the guard needy Chiefs because, while Grubbs did grade below average last season and while he is going into his age 31 season, he graded out as a top-16 guard from 2009-2013. His salary for 2015 was scheduled to be 6.6 million, but he wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond 2015 so, if he struggled again in 2016, he could be cut without penalty. The Chiefs have ripped up that old deal, however, and have given him this new 4-year, 24 million dollar deal. This new deal cuts his cap number for 2015 and his average annual salary, but in return, it gives him 8 million guaranteed, essentially ensuring that he’ll be on the roster in 2016. It’s a risky move considering he had a down year last year, but there’s a chance that guaranteeing part of his 2016 salary doesn’t end up hurting them.

Grade: B-

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