2015 NFL Free Agency

New Orleans Saints trade G Ben Grubbs to the Kansas City Chiefs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Saints, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: The Saints came into the off-season in rough shape cap wise. Getting rid of Grubbs hurts, but it’s an understandable move. Grubbs was a top-16 guard on Pro Football Focus for 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but graded out slightly below average last season and now he’s going into his age 31 season. The Saints save 6.6 million in cash and 3.6 million on the cap by letting him got (they also got him completely off their cap for 2016) and getting at least something back in return for him (a 5th rounder) is nice.

Grade: B-

Trade for Chiefs: The Chiefs had arguably the worst guard play in the NFL last season, as Zach Fulton and Mike McGlynn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th and 78th ranked guard respectively out of 78 eligible last season. They will have Jeff Allen back from injury in 2015, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013 and missing a whole season with injury probably doesn’t help his future. Grubbs wasn’t great last season and he’s aging, but he’ll only be 31 next season and he could easily bounce back, as he was a dominant player from 2009-2013. The Chiefs aren’t paying much for him, a 5th round pick and 6.6 million in 2015, and can cut him without penalty after the season if he continues struggling, so it’s a solid move.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints sign RB CJ Spiller

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

This contract isn’t inappropriate for a player of Spiller’s skill set, as Spiller will make 18 million over 4 years with 9 million guaranteed. That’s the 2nd most a running back has gotten on the open market after DeMarco Murray this off-season, but you can make an argument that Spiller was the 2nd best back available through free agency this year. CJ Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone.

He’s never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and he’s coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. However, he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. While this isn’t a great value for him, it’s not inappropriate. The value isn’t my issue with this deal.

My issue with this deal is the Saints came into the off-season in the least financially flexible situation, but they’ve committed 8.5 million annually to Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller combined, more than DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy both got from the Eagles and Bills respectively (and I wasn’t a fan of either of those deals either). The Saints have already had to trade Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs and now reportedly will have to cut Jahri Evans to make this deal work. Those were three functional or better players for them last season. The Saints would have been better off drafting a rookie in the mid rounds to pair with Khiry Robinson, keeping one of their guards or finding a replacement on the open market, and investing more in their terrible defense, rather than committing this many resources to the running back position.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts sign RB Frank Gore

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

The Colts had a huge hole at running back. Trent Richardson didn’t pan out at all after the Colts traded a 1st round pick for him and was released this week. Ahmad Bradshaw is a free agent who has missed 25 games in the past 4 seasons combined and who was coming off of a broken ankle. Boom Herron flashed in limited action last season, but is unproven and has serious fumbling problems. That being said, the Colts will probably live to regret giving Frank Gore a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and guaranteeing him 6.5 million of the 7.5 million he’s scheduled to make over the next 2 seasons.

Gore’s rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. This deal reminds me of when the Falcons signed an aging Steven Jackson two off-seasons ago. The Colts could easily feel the need to let Gore go next off-season, but they’d only save 1 million by doing that because they’ll still owe him 3 million dollars in guaranteed money either way.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens re-sign RB Justin Forsett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Ravens, Uncategorized

Justin Forsett was one of the best running backs in the NFL in 2014. He took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. However, he’s going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. He was able to have a breakout year in Gary Kubiak’s system, but now Kubiak is gone.

All that being said, the Ravens are only giving him 9 million over 3 years. That’s not a lot of money to bet that Forsett will continue to be starting caliber. It’s a smart move for a cap strapped team that would have had a big problem at running back if Forsett wasn’t re-signed. Lorenzo Taliaferro is an unproven 2014 4th round pick with 68 career carries, while Bernard Pierce has a mere 3.78 YPC average in his career.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles sign RB Ryan Mathews

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

When I first saw these numbers, 11.5 million over 3 years with 5 million guaranteed, I thought it was a great deal for the Eagles. Mathews obviously has an injury history, playing all 16 games just once in 5 seasons, including missing 20 games combined, including 10 last season. However, when he’s healthy, he has feature back potential. In 2011, he rushed for 1091 yards and 6 touchdowns on 222 attempts (4.91 YPC), with 50 catches for 455 yards. In 2013, he rushed for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 attempts (4.40 YPC), with 26 catches for 189 yards and another touchdown.

This deal is less money than Frank Gore (3-year, 12 million with 7.5 million guaranteed), Shane Vereen (3-year, 12 million with 5 million guaranteed), and Mark Ingram (4-year, 16 million, with 7.6 million guaranteed). Mathews is significantly younger than Gore, has the feature back potential that Vereen doesn’t have, and is more proven than Mark Ingram. However, that all changed when the Eagles signed DeMarco Murray as well.

It’s hard to tell what Chip Kelly is doing. I loved the LeSean McCoy trade, but, ever since then, every move he’s made has been head scratching, except the Brandon Graham deal. This still isn’t a bad deal value wise, but it’s a lot of money for a backup running back and it’s just a weird move on both sides. Why wouldn’t the Eagles find a cheaper backup and why wouldn’t Mathews sign somewhere like Arizona or Jacksonville or Oakland or Dallas or back to San Diego where he could get more work?

This kind of reminds me of when the Chargers signed Donald Brown to a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal last off-season even though they already had Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. It wasn’t a bad value, but it didn’t make any sense. I don’t expect Mathews to rush for 2.62 YPC like Brown did last season. That was just a weird thing that happened, unrelated to the weird decision to sign him to starter’s money to be a backup. However, I don’t expect this move to work out and it’s not a move I like.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles sign RB DeMarco Murray

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

People criticized the Eagles for trading LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso because Alonso isn’t as good of a player as McCoy is. However, two weeks later, the Eagles have found their replacement for McCoy, giving DeMarco Murray a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with 21 million guaranteed, similar to the extension that McCoy signed upon being traded to the Bills. If you assume Murray and McCoy are equal, all the Eagles really did was sign Kiko Alonso to a 2-year, 1.7 million dollar deal, which is an outrageous bargain. It’s not hard to find a replacement for McCoy when you have all that money freed up by trading him away. It is, however, very, very difficult to find talented 25-year-old middle linebackers available for pennies on the open market.

However, that’s just more evidence that the McCoy/Alonso trade was a brilliant move by the Eagles. Everything the Eagles have done since then has been pretty head scratching and that includes this trade for Murray. Murray was the NFL’s rushing leader last season, but this is a massive overpay. I wrote in my Cowboys off-season preview that Murray was one of the top candidates to be overpaid this off-season and that he should come with a buyer beware label on his forehead, for a variety of reasons.

For one, since 1988, only 4 of 26 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. Those 26 backs averaged 365 carries per season, rushed for 1612 yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in the season they led the league in carries. The following season, they averaged 262 carries per season, rushed for 1053 yards, and scored 8 touchdowns. Murray already saw his YPC drop from 5.14 in the first 8 games of the season to 4.23 in the final 8. There’s a reason backs are rarely given more than 350 carries, as teams don’t want to ruin that player for the following season. The Cowboys knew Murray wasn’t coming back in 2015 though so they didn’t care. They offered him a mere 4-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season.

Murray has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days too. He made it through all 16 games in 2014 (not without a broken hand), but he missed 11 games in first 3 seasons and fell to the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft because of injury concerns. Even if Murray stays healthy in 2015, he’s highly unlikely to even come within 50 carries of his 2014 total, a problem as his 4.71 YPC in 2014 was good, but not outstanding or anything. He got to 1800 yards on volume largely. He also was helped out drastically by the Cowboys offensive line, as the Cowboys were Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked team in run blocking grade. Going into the season, I thought DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews were similar players, guys with every down back potential, but significant injury histories. Obviously, they had very different 2014s, as Mathews missed a significant amount of time with injury, while Murray finally stayed healthy and led the NFL in rushing, but there’s no reason Murray should get this kind of money, while Mathews got 11.5 million over 3 years.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns sign WR Brian Hartline

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Hartline was one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in 2014, which led to his release from the Dolphins, a move that saved Miami 5.95 million in cash and 3.15 million on the cap. Hartline played all 16 games, but caught just 39 passes in 2014. He caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns on 62 attempts (62.9%) and 490 routes run, an average of 0.99 yards per route run. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible.

However, he graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, putting up 1000+ yard seasons in both of those years. Only going into his age 29 season, Hartline has a good chance to bounce back in 2015. He’s not that athletic, but he’s big, sure handed, and a good route runner. The Browns are paying just 6 million over 2 years with just 1.5 million guaranteed, which isn’t very much money. He could prove to be a nice buy low signing for a team with a big need at wide receiver.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers sign G Orlando Franklin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Two off-seasons ago, the Broncos stole one of the Chargers’ offensive linemen, signing Louis Vasquez to a 4-year, 23.5 million dollar deal with 13 million guaranteed. That worked out well. This off-season, the Chargers return the favor by signing ex-Bronco Orlando Franklin to a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed. Like the Vasquez deal, it’s a very solid value and will really help this team, especially given how bad their offensive line has been in recent years. Franklin will probably start at left guard in San Diego, where he played in Denver last season, but he also has experience at right tackle and could end up there in the future if DJ Fluker continues to struggle in pass protection. That versatility definitely is part of his value.

Franklin isn’t just versatile. He’s also good. Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. He’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. I think Franklin is a better overall player than Mike Iupati, who got 40 million over 5 years from the Cardinals, so this is definitely a good deal.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins sign DE Stephen Paea

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Paea was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, but he was a one-year wonder as the 2011 2nd round pick graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013. That being said, this deal is an appropriate value for him, as it pays him just 21 million over 4 years, though with 15 million guaranteed. If Paea regresses in 2015 and beyond, it’s not a huge risk and if he keeps up his strong play from 2014, he’d be one of the more underpaid players in the NFL. He also fills an obvious need for the Redskins on their defensive line. My only concern with this deal (aside from the large percentage of this deal that’s guaranteed) is that Washington runs a 3-4 defense and Paea, a 6-1 300 pound one-gap penetrator, wouldn’t seem to be a natural fit for the scheme. Paea’s former team, the Bears, is switching to a 3-4 this off-season and didn’t have much interest in bringing him back.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders sign C Rodney Hudson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders made Rodney Hudson the highest paid center in the NFL with this move, giving him 44.5 million over 5 years. Last off-season, Alex Mack and Maurkice Pouncey got 42 and 44 million respectively over the same time period in then record breaking deals. Hudson is a good center, but he’s not worth this kind of money. He’s not the best center in the NFL. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked center last year, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of showing that level of play.

Hudson flashed on 136 snaps in various positions as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, before moving to center full-time in 2012. However, Hudson played just 3 games that year before going down for the season, though he showed well when healthy. Since then, he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, grading out 17th among centers in 2013 and 3rd in 2014. He’s a solid player and one of the better centers in the game, but this is an overpay, even for a team like the Raiders with tons of money to spend and not a lot of talent.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]