2015 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

The Bills had an impressive surprise week 1 home victory against the Indianapolis Colts last week, knocking off Andrew Luck and company 27-14. Many take that victory to mean that the Bills are a legitimate contender in the AFC, but I think it’s more of an indictment on Indianapolis’ potential as a Super Bowl contender. Many saw the Colts as a top team in the NFL coming into the season, in spite of major issues running the football, stopping the run, and protecting the quarterback, but I think they’ll just continue being an average team outside their terrible division (10-11 in non-divisional games since 2013). The Bills’ victory over the Colts exposed that more than anything positive about the Bills.

The Bills have a strong defense and one that will be even stronger this week with the re-addition of Marcell Dareus, but I still don’t like their offense at all. Tyrod Taylor is a 2011 6th round pick who is only entering his 2nd career start. The offensive line is a mess. LeSean McCoy looks as slowed down as he did last season, even in a victory over Indianapolis. The Colts actually had 8 more first downs than the Bills, 23-15 and the two teams were essentially equal in rate of moving the chains. The Bills won largely because they won the turnover battle by 3, but turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a +3 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

The Bills can’t rely on dominating the turnover battle again this week, especially against a New England team that has always been the exception to the turnover margin rule, regularly dominating the turnover margin throughout Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s tenure together. As a result of their victory last week as a 3 home underdogs, the Bills are now just 1 point home underdogs against a New England team that is better than Indianapolis. That line suggests that the Patriots are just 4 points better than the Bills, further showing how overrated the Bills are right now.

I think we’re getting significant line value with the Patriots, who, while not as good as last season, are still one of the top teams in the NFL and significantly better than the Bills. The Patriots have also been deadly in this spot with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The Patriots are 47-19 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in the Brady/Belichick era. It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots have won 20 of their last 22 games against the Bills. In a game where they essentially just have to win to cover, I like the Patriots a good amount. With a longer week off of Thursday Night Football, I trust the Patriots to have a great defensive game plan for Buffalo’s inexperienced quarterback. The one thing that scares me is that the Bills are 11-6 ATS at home since 2013, including 8-2 ATS as home underdogs, but I’d still put money on New England.

New England Patriots 20 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

I had the Dolphins as one of the best teams in the league going into the season. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Now they’re improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and their defense is better thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh. They still have some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I think they could be a top-5 team. They didn’t look like one in their first game of the season in Washington, in a 17-10 win that was much tougher than it should have been, but it’s possible they weren’t completely focused for the lowly Redskins and got caught in a much tougher road game than they expected as a result.

The Redskins will be big road favorites here again this week, as they go to Jacksonville. Jacksonville, much the opposite of the Dolphins, is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Already one of the least talented teams coming into the season, the Jaguars are banged up right now and expected to be without 4 starters/key contributors in this one, tight end Julius Thomas, safety John Cyprien, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks. They very much deserve to be 6.5 point home underdogs here.

The Jaguars also have a very tough game on deck, as they head to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 50-89 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 points or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. They’ll have to avoid sleepwalking again like they did last week, but I’m taking the Dolphins as long as this line is under a touchdown with good confidence.

Miami Dolphins 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Miami -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Packers/Seahawks is becoming a pretty big rivalry. These two teams met twice last season, in the week 1 opener after the Seahawks got their rings, and in the NFC Championship, when the Seahawks ended the Packers’ season in stunning comeback fashion and went to the Super Bowl for the 2nd straight year. The Seahawks have won the NFC in each of the past 2 seasons, but Green Bay was on their level in 2013 before Aaron Rodgers got hurt and then came so close to knocking them off last season. Now this year, Green Bay and Seattle were seen as the consensus top-2 teams in the NFC coming into the season.

As a result of the fact that both of these teams won their division last season, the Seahawks and the Packers will face off this week on Sunday Night Football in their 3rd matchup in a little bit over a year. These two teams also met in 2012 in Russell Wilson’s rookie year, when Seattle beat the Packers thanks to the infamous simultaneous possession call made by the replacement refs on the winning touchdown. The Packers have lost each of their last 3 matchups against the Seahawks, but the Seahawks also haven’t been to Green Bay since 2009 (a Seattle loss).

Going to Green Bay will be a different test for the Seahawks. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 27-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 35-4 straight up, with an absurd +569 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.59 points per game. Not only will the Seahawks have to deal with the Packers’ homefield advantage, but they will be without their own strong home field advantage. Since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012, they are 26-3 at home (20-9 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 13.34 points per game, as opposed to 16-12 on the road (17-11 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 6.29 points per game. The location change could be a real boost for a Green Bay team in a matchup they haven’t had a lot of success in recently.

Despite that, I actually will be going with the Seahawks and taking the 3.5 points. This line has moved from 3 in the early line last week and now it’s even at 4 in some places, the most the Seahawks have been underdogs by since week 7 of Russell Wilson’s rookie year, when they went to San Francisco. That line movement might not seem like a big deal, but 3 is such a key number that it is a big deal. The reason for the line movement is that Seattle lost on the road in St. Louis last week.

Everyone thinks the Seahawks are not as good anymore because they are without Kam Chancellor, who is still holding out for more money. I think that’s an overreaction. Russell Wilson is 10-2 ATS off of a loss in his career, 10-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, and 3-1 ATS as an underdog off of a loss. They’ve certainly proven people wrong before and this could be another case of that. Besides, the Packers aren’t at full strength either. Last season, they had the 3rd fewest adjusted games lost on offense, but, so far this year, they’re already without top wide receiver Jordy Nelson for the year with a torn ACL and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is expected to miss this game as well. They’re still a strong offense, but they’re not as perfect around Rodgers as they were in 2014.

On top of that, the Seahawks are in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-79 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 278-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.10 points per game. The fact that the Seahawks were on the road last week should help them be better prepared to deal with playing in Green Bay. This isn’t a game I’d put money on, but I’m going with the Seahawks.

Green Bay Packers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

As I’ve mentioned many times before, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they are usually the result of overreaction to one game, which creates line value. We have a case of that here as the Browns went from 4 home point favorites in the early line last week to 2 point home underdogs this week. It’s obvious why that happened, as the Browns lost 31-10 in New York to the Jets and the Titans won 42-14 in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. However, I still think it’s an overreaction.

The Browns’ passing game is a serious problem, but they still have a top-5 offensive line and an above average defense. That wasn’t clear last week because the Browns turned it over 5 times, en route to a -4 turnover margin, but turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a -4 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

Common bettors put too much stock into week-to-week turnover margin and, for that reason, they think the Browns are one of the worst few teams in the league, which is what this line suggests. I don’t think that’s true. In fact, I think that they are, in terms of talent level, comparable to the Titans, especially since the Titans will be without top cornerback Jason McCourty for the 2nd straight week. I had them both with a similar amount of wins going into the season, in my season previews.

The Titans are better at the quarterback position and coming off of a huge win, but they still have their fair share of problems and I don’t expect them to play as well as they did against the hapless Buccaneers every week. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Browns as 1.5 point home underdogs. On top of that, home underdogs are 54-36 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as underdogs in which they had a -4 or worse turnover margin, largely as a result of public overreaction to single week turnover margins.

The Browns are also in a way better spot, with arguably their easiest game of the season on deck, with the Oakland Raiders coming to town. Meanwhile, the Titans have a much tougher and much more important matchup on deck as they host the 2-time defending AFC South Champion Indianapolis Colts, in a game where the Titans will almost certainly be home underdogs (the early line is at 3.5). Teams are 65-103 ATS as home underdogs of a field goal or more since 2012. In addition, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 19-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs. With the Browns at home and the Titans in a bad spot, I really like the Browns’ chances of winning this game against a comparable opponent and I’ll take the two points with a good amount of confidence. This would be my Pick of the Week if I had any sort of faith in Johnny Manziel.

Cleveland Browns 17 Tennessee Titans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do in betting is to go against significant week-to-week line movement. The logic behind it is this: significant line movements from one week to another that aren’t the result of serious injury are usually overreactions to one week and thus provide line value. This line shifted from 9.5 last week in the early line and now it’s fallen down to 7, for reasons other than injuries, as injured Colts receiver TY Hilton is more likely than not going to be able to play. The line movement is not a surprise, considering the Colts lost 27-14 in Buffalo last week, while the Jets had one of the biggest victories of the week, beating the Browns 31-10.

The Colts’ loss in Indianapolis did expose them as a team with a great passing offense and good weapons in the passing game, but little else, a weak offensive line and running game and a defense with a bunch of problems. The Bills’ stout defense was able to handle the one-dimensional Colts’ offense, while their weak offense was able to take advantage of frequent good field position provided by the defense and move the ball against the Colts’ porous stop unit.

However, there is still a lot that’s good about the Colts and I like their chances of bouncing back and taking care of business here at home against a Jets team that won’t get to play the Browns every week and that still has serious problems, including the quarterback spot, the pass rush, and the secondary behind Darrelle Revis, especially with Antonio Cromartie now hurt and likely to miss this one. This line suggests that the Colts would be mere 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets, which doesn’t make any sense considering the Colts were 3 point favorites in Buffalo last week and Buffalo is better than the Jets.

In addition to the line value created by overreaction to last week, there are a few other reasons why I like the Colts to bounce back here. One reason is that they typically have bounced back from losses in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, going 14-1 ATS off of a loss since that duo arrived in 2012. The Colts are also in a way better spot, with only a trip to Tennessee on deck, while the Jets will host the Eagles next week. The Colts are expected to be road favorites of more than a field goal in Tennessee, while the Jets are expected to be more than field goal underdogs at home against Philadelphia. Teams are 96-70 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of a field goal or more, while teams are 65-103 ATS over that time period before being home underdogs of a field goal or more. It’ll be easier for the Colts to be focused for this one with no upcoming distractions.

The Colts are also especially good at home, going 18-7 ATS at home since 2012, including 8-1 ATS at home off of a loss over that time period. On top of that, they’ve always been able to handle below average teams pretty easily over the past few years, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. I know the Jets aren’t sub .500 and it’s not past week 4, but the logic follows anyway. I think, more likely than not, as the season goes on, that the Jets will show themselves to be a sub .500 team and that will start with a big loss here in Indianapolis. Indianapolis is my Pick of the Week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 New York Jets 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

This line moved from a pick em last week to now Kansas City being favored by 3, a significant line movement from a toss up to expected to win by a field goal. The Chiefs being favored by a field goal here at home suggests that these two teams are essentially even. That big change was likely as a result of Peyton Manning’s struggles week 1, as Manning completed just 24 of 40 for 175 yards, didn’t lead the team to the end zone, and threw a pick six. He looked just as bad as he did to end last season, as he completed 120 of 201 (59.7%) for 1380 yards (6.87 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 6 games of the season, including an embarrassing 24-13 home loss to the vastly inferior Indianapolis Colts.

It looked like the off-season didn’t do anything for him, that he’s just as old and tired as he was after 14 weeks last season. Going into the season, there was debate about whether or not Manning could still play at a high level, going into his age 39 season, after the way last year ended and the off-season retirement speculation. Would he be 39-year-old Brett Favre, who led league in turnovers with the Jets, 40-year-old Brett Favre, who led the Vikings to the AFC Championship, or 41-year-old Brett Favre, who couldn’t make it through the season? After one game (especially behind the porous Bronco offensive line), he certainly looked more like 39-year-old or 41-year-old Favre than 40-year-old Favre.

But, then again, the Broncos won. They had arguably the best defensive performance in the league last week (except maybe Buffalo, who shut down that overrated Indianapolis offense) and they have good playmakers on offense around Manning in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and CJ Anderson. Their defense was good last year and now seems to have been made great by a healthy Danny Trevathan and the addition of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. They had their strong week 1 performance even without suspended safety TJ Ward, a key stopper.

Now, the Broncos did play a Baltimore team that has a weak receiving corps, but the Ravens still have a strong offensive line and running game and the Broncos’ front 7 handled them easily. Plus, the Broncos’ secondary seemingly didn’t allow an open receiver all day, a dominant performance overall. And shouldn’t strength of opponent be taken into account in evaluating Manning’s performance as well as the defense’s? Manning was facing a Baltimore defense that was one of the best in the league coming into the season, before Terrell Suggs tore his Achilles late against Denver.

There’s still a chance he could put up another overall solid season even with his arm strength diminished. Remember, he completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions through 11 games last season. And even if he isn’t great, the Broncos have the supporting cast to still be one of the top teams in the AFC, something the Chiefs aren’t. The Broncos just knocked off another top AFC team and are simply on a different tier than the Chiefs. It’s hard to be too confident in a 39-year-old quarterback on the road on a short week, but he’s still a brilliant veteran and going against a Bob Sutton defense that he knows well and that he’s had good success against in the past. He should be able to move the ball with Thomas and Sanders against a weak Kansas City secondary that is without top cornerback Sean Smith. It’s really hard to pass on the field goal here now that it’s available.

Denver Broncos 19 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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2015 Week 1 NFL Pick Results

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Week 1

Straight Up: 12-4

Against the Spread: 10-5-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-1

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 5-2-1

Upset Picks: 1-0

2014

Straight Up: 162-93-1 (.635)

Against the Spread: 143-109-4 (.567)

Pick of the Week: 9-7-1

High Confidence: 8-11

Medium Confidence: 54-30

Low Confidence: 34-29-2

No Confidence: 38-32-1

Upset Picks: 18-25

Pre-season Prop Bets: 4-2

2013

Straight Up: 178-88-1 (.669)

Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (.574)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1

High Confidence: 25-10-1

Medium Confidence: 32-26

Low Confidence: 39-28-3

No Confidence: 42-40-4

Upset Picks: 27-30

Pre-season Prop Bets: 8-3

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

This is the 2nd toughest game of the week for me, behind Indianapolis -3 in Buffalo. The Texans are currently at -1 here at home for the Chiefs, but they’re also a pick ‘em in some places and could move to single point home underdogs before game time, as the public is on the road team. I’m very wary of picking the Chiefs for that reason. I like to fade the public whenever it’s possible because they always lose money in the long run and I especially like to fade the public whenever they’re on the underdog. Whenever the public consensus picks an underdog to win straight up, it usually doesn’t work out. The favorite is favored for a reason.

I realize that the Texans are mere point favorites here, if that, and that the Chiefs could be favorites by game time, but I’d be wary of them as road favorites as well. That would make them one of 9 road favorites in a very weird week to start the season and I’ve already taken a bunch of road favorites, something I hate to do. I only did that because they were small road favorites who just needed to win straight up essentially and who were much better than their opponent overall. That’s not the case here and, while I expect the Chiefs (projected for 8 wins) to win here in Houston over the Texans (projected for 6 wins), it’s hard to say I’m confident in that, especially with the public on the underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 19 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. The Buccaneers took 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston #1 overall, while the Titans took 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota #1 overall. Both teams also play in awful divisions and have a very good chance to pick up a handful more wins this season.

Both teams are missing key players. Tampa Bay is missing top offensive lineman DeMar Dotson with injury, while Tennessee is missing top cornerback Jason McCourty and recently traded left guard Andy Levitre, unnecessarily creating a massive hole at that position. However, I’m going to take the Titans as 3 point underdogs here on the road for 3 reasons. For one, they have the better supporting cast and had the better off-season, adding the likes of Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo in free agency. Tampa Bay added Henry Melton and Bruce Carter. The former is a solid defensive tackle, but Carter has already gotten benched, as his transition to middle linebacker really didn’t go.

For two, Jameis Winston struggled in the pre-season, while Mariota played pretty well. I hate putting a lot of stock in the pre-season, but it’s worth mentioning with these two rookies who will be counted on so much this season. Three, Tampa Bay’s home field advantage has been non-existent in recent years, as they’ve gone 15-34 ATS at home since 2009, including 5-10 ATS as home non-divisional favorites. Even if we assume these teams are equal (which I don’t think is true), this line should be lower than 3. I’m not that confident, but I like Tennessee’s chances to cover the 3 points and to also pull the upset.

Tennessee Titans 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

I believe these two teams are similar in their talent level and this line basically does that too, as the home team Jets are favored by 3.5 points. That suggests they’re just a little bit better than the Browns. The problem is that I think it’s the other way around and that the Browns are a little bit better than the Jets, which gives us some line value with the underdog. The Browns have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL with Josh McCown and they have minimal skill position talent around him, but they have an outstanding offensive line and an above average defense and can give teams some trouble. They’re a solid quarterback away from being a playoff caliber team.

The Jets also have their own quarterback problems, with starter Geno Smith out for at least a month with a broken jaw that was suffered in a brawl with his now-ex teammate. As embarrassing as the incident is, Ryan Fitzpatrick, now the starter, is a better quarterback. He’s a 33-year old journeyman, but he’s been a passable quarterback for a few years and is arguably coming off of the best season of his career, though one that was ended prematurely with a broken leg. Still, he’s an upgrade over Smith.

The Jets spent a lot of money fixing up their supporting cast this off-season too, bringing in Brandon Marshall, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine, all of whom commanded megadeals. Marshall is an upgrade at wide receiver opposite Eric Decker and Revis is still one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but Cromartie and Skrine were both overpaid. The team is also without stud defensive end Sheldon Richardson for the first 4 games of the season with a suspension and still has a serious issue at outside linebacker, so their defense isn’t as good as the Browns’ defense. With holes at tight end, guard, and running back, their offense isn’t much better than the Browns’ and their loaded offensive line. I’m not putting money on it, but I like the Browns as 3.5 point underdogs here on the road.

New York Jets 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Low

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