2015 NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

The Cardinals failed to cover last week in San Francisco, winning by just 6 points, as 10 point favorites, but I like their chances of covering this week as 5 point favorites in St. Louis for a few reasons. For one, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game.

The Cardinals should have won by more than 6 last week anyway, as they won the first down battle by 9, 26-17. That’s not particularly impressive against the 49ers, but they haven’t lost the rate of moving the chains battle all season and in their two losses won the first down battle by a combined 20. They rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are all the way down 28th. Defensive end Robert Quinn is out for the 4th straight week for the Rams and they’ve really missed him. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains, so they’ve had to rely on their defense to have any success this season and they haven’t been playing nearly as well defensively without Quinn. The Cardinals are missing running back Chris Johnson, defensive end Frostee Rucker, and defensive end Corey Redding, but none of those players are as important as Quinn and the Rams are also missing talented cornerback Trumaine Johnson.

This should be a relatively easy game for the Cardinals and they’re expected to be favored by 6 next week at home against the Vikings. Favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. The Cardinals are only favored by 5, but it was 6 earlier in the week and it really should be 10 given the talent disparity between these two teams. Either way, the logic makes sense. Superior teams tend to blowout out inferior teams when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. They do have to play next week on Thursday Night and favorites are 46-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m also a bit concerned that the line is dropping despite the public being all over the Cardinals, as that suggests the sharps are on the Rams, but I just think we’re getting too much line value to pass on. I wouldn’t put money on this one unless the line drops to 4 though.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona -5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-2) at San Diego Chargers (3-8)

The Chargers’ 3-8 record is one of the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -6 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -4.5 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 11 games and could easily be 5-6, 6-5, or even 7-4. They rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 3 spots behind the 10th ranked Denver Broncos, who they play this week.

The Chargers are also healthier than they’ve been all season, as tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Ladarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, left guard Orlando Franklin, left tackle King Dunlap, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen have missed a combined 30 games this season with injury. Fluker, Dunlap, and Allen are out, but other than Ladarius Green, who is listed as probable, none of the other guys even come up on the injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, lost safety TJ Ward to a high ankle sprain last week and will be without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware for the 4th straight game. Those are two key missing defenders on a defense that’s otherwise been really healthy this season.

Making matters worse for the Broncos this week is that they’re coming off of a huge, emotional overtime victory over the New England Patriots, as home underdogs. They could be overconfident coming off of that game, as teams are 43-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs and 8-19 ATS since 2002 off of win as home underdogs in overtime. Despite that, and the fact that the Chargers are underrated and this line is too high, and that the Chargers are getting healthier while the Broncos are going the other direction, the public is still all over the Broncos, as 4 point road favorites. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

There are three reasons why this is just a medium confidence pick and not a Pick of the Week. One, the line did move from last week to this week, so the Chargers are only 4 point underdogs now. We’re still getting value with them, but it’s less and I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. It doesn’t make sense here, but I’d like the Chargers more at 6, though close to 3 in 10 games are decided by four points or fewer.

Two, the Broncos are playing better football over the past two weeks thanks to the play of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler hasn’t been amazing or anything, but he’s been a noticeable upgrade over Peyton Manning, who looked done before going down with a foot injury. Osweiler has completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions and the Broncos moved the chains at a 70.62% rate in his 2 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9. That definitely offsets their defensive injuries somewhat.

Three, the Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS at home this season, as opposed to 3-2 ATS on the road. They’re still my pick though. This is a classic trap game for the Broncos, banged up, coming off of a tough and hugely important home win, on the road, with everyone singing their praises, against an underrated team that’s gotten healthier.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive tackle Eugene Monroe for the 2nd straight week this week, though left guard Kelechi Osemele returns from a one week absence.

As a result of all of these losses, the Ravens are 4-7, rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett and Monroe all going down within the last two weeks. The Dolphins rank 29th and have been horrendous defensively since losing Cameron Wake for the season week 8, but the line is only 3.5, down from 6 a week ago, a significant change. I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. The Ravens have a tough game next week, at home for the Seahawks, where they’ll be 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 74-51 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs. Given that, I’m taking the Dolphins though it’s a no confidence pick. If it goes down to 3, I might consider bumping it up to low confidence, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at New York Giants: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (6-5) at New York Giants (5-6)

This is technically a home game for the Giants, but considering they’re playing the Jets, with whom they share a stadium, it’s tough to consider this a true home game. The Giants’ season ticket holders will be there and the Giants will have control of the stadium (telling the fans to get loud and be quiet at the appropriate times), but there should also be plenty of Jets fans in the crowd and the Jets are probably going to be pretty comfortable waking up in their own beds and going to play a “road game” in MetLife Stadium.

I went back into the history of this matchup to see if the home team does noticeably better than the road team. Unfortunately, it’s a small sample size, as this is just the 7th time these teams have met since 1989. The road team is 2-4, getting outscored by 1.67 points per game, but the Giants have pretty much always dominated this matchup, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 7.50 points per game. That doesn’t really tell us much so I’m going to conservatively give the Giants one point for homefield advantage. The Giants have never had much of a homefield advantage anyway in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era (since 2004), going 54-43 (47-50 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 2.65 points per game, as opposed to 55-46 (60-40 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by 0.11 points per game.

While the Giants have traditionally dominated this matchup, the Jets are the better team right now. They rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 24th. The Jets have outscored their opponents by 44 points on the season, with a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have only managed +14 with a +10 turnover margin. It’s so tough to rely on winning the turnover margin every week, so I favor a team like the Jets over a team like the Giants by a lot.

The Jets are missing cornerback Darrelle Revis with a concussion for the 2nd straight week, but their offense was so much better last week with center Nick Mangold back and that can’t be ignored. Given that the Giants are only getting 1 point for homefield advantage, this line is way too low at 2. Anything up to a field goal is good value with the Jets, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I wouldn’t venture beyond 3 with the Jets with any sort of confidence, in case this line starts to climb. I like them at 2 though.

New York Jets 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9)

This line was a touchdown in favor of the visiting Bengals last week, but since has moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I think this line is still pretty appropriate, even with the Bengals missing tight end Tyler Eifert. The Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns are all the way down at 30th. They haven’t had many injuries this season and losing Eifert is very tough, but it’s hard to argue against this line being appropriate as long as it stays in single digits.

The Bengals are also in a good spot, hosting the Steelers next week, a game in which they could easily be 6+ point favorites. Favorites of 6+ or more, like the Bengals this week, are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. I don’t have any confidence in the Bengals and I’d switch my pick to the Browns if the line jumps to 10, as about 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and 10+ point underdogs are 54-32 ATS before being favorites (as the Browns will be when they host the 49ers next week) since 2002. I wouldn’t take either side with any confidence though.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1)

The Eagles have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 90-31, dropping them out of 1st place in the weak NFC East and raising questions about whether or not head coach Chip Kelly will return next season. However, the fact that the Eagles are coming off of back-to-back blowout losses is actually good news for their chances to cover this week, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Teams are 49-32 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses of 20 points or more.

It makes sense if you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed off of such a poor stretch. They might not be overlooked by a New England team that is 33-16 ATS off of a loss in Tom Brady’s starts throughout his career, but they could definitely be embarrassed and I do think they’re undervalued. It also hurts the Patriots that they lost in overtime on the road, as those types of losses tend to be tougher to bounce back from. Teams are 30-57 ATS since 2002 off of a road overtime loss, unless they are road underdogs, which the Patriots aren’t this week.

Going back to the Eagles being undervalued, they are 9.5 point underdogs this week in New England. The Patriots rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Eagles rank 24th, but the Patriots are too banged up to be favored by this many points against the Eagles. The reason they are is because the public thinks the Eagles are awful, which isn’t true. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and they’re on the Patriots here. I think fading makes sense. The Patriots are missing running back Dion Lewis, wide receiver Julian Edelman, and tight end Rob Gronkowski with injury.

The Gronkowski injury is the newest and the biggest of the bunch. In games where Gronk plays over the past 5 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.81 YPA, 142 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. Linebacker Jamie Collins is expected back from a 4 game absence this week, but fellow linebacker Dont’a Hightower could be out. The Eagles, meanwhile, get quarterback Sam Bradford and left tackle Jason Peters back from injury, both of whom were missed over the past 2 games, particularly the latter, one of the top left tackles in the NFL.

It also helps the Eagles that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 125-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 102-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. I like the Eagles this week, but could only put money on them if the line moved to 10. About 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and the Patriots are just 7-12 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +9.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have been half passable at home, going 3-3 (4-2 ATS), including victories over winning opponents in the Falcons and Vikings, they’ve been horrendous on the road, losing all 5 games (1-4 ATS) by an average of 21.0 points per game. Their rate of moving the chains differential is -17.18% on the road, a truly awful showing, and really bad news considering they have a road game this week.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve also been a lot better offensively when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.16% rate in the 9 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Not only is Cutler healthy, but so are running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, huge parts of their offense. This will be just their 5th game having all three of them healthy this season. Given that, they shouldn’t have much of a problem winning by a touchdown or more at home against the 49ers.

Chicago Bears 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season a couple weeks ago hurts. He was a big part of why they improved. The Colts are also missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also key players.

The Steelers rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 7 games that Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. However, they’re far from completely healthy around him, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum with serious injuries, three players who were key to the Steelers’ strong offense last season. Of course, if Roethlisberger continues to play like he did last week in Seattle, it might not matter that they’re missing so much talent around him, but, then again, their improved defense looked pretty bad last week.

Considering the Colts rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential and have played better when Hasselbeck has played, this line seems high at a touchdown, even with the Colts also banged up. The Colts are also in a better spot, as they go to the lowly Jaguars next week (where they’re expected to be 1 point road favorites), while the Steelers have to go to Cincinnati. Underdogs (like the Colts) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Colts will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Steelers will be next week). The Steelers could also easily be 6 point underdogs in Cincinnati, arguably the toughest game of their season, and teams are 49-83 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. If they were healthier, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I’d still put money on the touchdown with the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have lost 7 straight games against the spread, making them just the 30th team since 1989 to do that.

That seems to have caused the odds makers to knock them down, to the point where they might be underrated now. Teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of 7+ straight against the spread losses. I know it’s a sample size, but, again this doesn’t happen very often and it makes sense that teams in this spot would cover at a higher rate. The Falcons rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd (and are missing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, arguably their best player) and yet the Buccaneers just 2 point favorites at home, after being favored by 1.5 at home last week. I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, so the Falcons look like a good pick in this one.

The Falcons are also in a great spot. They lost to the Buccaneers earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 54-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. Besides, the Buccaneers have had next to no homefield advantage in recent years so the location of this game doesn’t matter as much as a normal divisional matchup would. The Buccaneers are just 17-35 ATS at home since 2009. If we were getting a field goal with the Falcons, they’d be my Pick of the Week, and I’d still put money on them as 2 point underdogs. I’d take Atlanta up to field goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

The Seahawks are in a great spot here this week. While the Vikings have to play arguably the toughest game of their season in 4 days on the road on Thursday Night Football (in Arizona against the Cardinals), the Seahawks have an easy road game in Baltimore on deck, against a Ravens team that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are expected to be 6 point road underdogs, while the Seahawks are expected to be 4.5 point road favorites. Teams are 74-51 ATS before being favorites of 4 or more since 2012. On top of that, underdogs (like the Seahawks) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Seahawks will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Vikings will be next week). Making matters even worse for the Vikings is the short week ahead, as teams are 46-70 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

We are only getting 1 point with the Seahawks, which is unfortunate. The Seahawks only rank a few spots higher than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential (6th vs. 12th), which suggests this line could be accurate. However, the Seahawks have faced a much tougher schedule than the Vikings have. The Seahawks have played 5 teams with winning records, including Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati, but the Vikings have played just 3 teams with winning records, none of whom rank higher than 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks are probably the Vikings’ toughest opponent of the season so far, while the Seahawks have already played 4 or 5 better teams than the Vikings. The Seahawks are also not missing one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, like the Vikings are this week, missing defensive tackle Linval Josepy.

The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year. Rawls is second in the NFL in yards per carry and the Seahawks have won 2 of their last 3, after a 4-4 start. They do seem to be gaining a head of steam in an NFL that feels weak across the board this season. The Seahawks are 19-4 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012) and 23-6 ATS in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). That makes sense as this organization is so well run from top to bottom. Teams like that always seem to get better down the stretch, as long as they stay healthy. I wish we were getting more points with the Seahawks, but they’re still my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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