2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

This is the 2nd toughest game of the week for me, behind Indianapolis -3 in Buffalo. The Texans are currently at -1 here at home for the Chiefs, but they’re also a pick ‘em in some places and could move to single point home underdogs before game time, as the public is on the road team. I’m very wary of picking the Chiefs for that reason. I like to fade the public whenever it’s possible because they always lose money in the long run and I especially like to fade the public whenever they’re on the underdog. Whenever the public consensus picks an underdog to win straight up, it usually doesn’t work out. The favorite is favored for a reason.

I realize that the Texans are mere point favorites here, if that, and that the Chiefs could be favorites by game time, but I’d be wary of them as road favorites as well. That would make them one of 9 road favorites in a very weird week to start the season and I’ve already taken a bunch of road favorites, something I hate to do. I only did that because they were small road favorites who just needed to win straight up essentially and who were much better than their opponent overall. That’s not the case here and, while I expect the Chiefs (projected for 8 wins) to win here in Houston over the Texans (projected for 6 wins), it’s hard to say I’m confident in that, especially with the public on the underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 19 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. The Buccaneers took 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston #1 overall, while the Titans took 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota #1 overall. Both teams also play in awful divisions and have a very good chance to pick up a handful more wins this season.

Both teams are missing key players. Tampa Bay is missing top offensive lineman DeMar Dotson with injury, while Tennessee is missing top cornerback Jason McCourty and recently traded left guard Andy Levitre, unnecessarily creating a massive hole at that position. However, I’m going to take the Titans as 3 point underdogs here on the road for 3 reasons. For one, they have the better supporting cast and had the better off-season, adding the likes of Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo in free agency. Tampa Bay added Henry Melton and Bruce Carter. The former is a solid defensive tackle, but Carter has already gotten benched, as his transition to middle linebacker really didn’t go.

For two, Jameis Winston struggled in the pre-season, while Mariota played pretty well. I hate putting a lot of stock in the pre-season, but it’s worth mentioning with these two rookies who will be counted on so much this season. Three, Tampa Bay’s home field advantage has been non-existent in recent years, as they’ve gone 15-34 ATS at home since 2009, including 5-10 ATS as home non-divisional favorites. Even if we assume these teams are equal (which I don’t think is true), this line should be lower than 3. I’m not that confident, but I like Tennessee’s chances to cover the 3 points and to also pull the upset.

Tennessee Titans 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

I believe these two teams are similar in their talent level and this line basically does that too, as the home team Jets are favored by 3.5 points. That suggests they’re just a little bit better than the Browns. The problem is that I think it’s the other way around and that the Browns are a little bit better than the Jets, which gives us some line value with the underdog. The Browns have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL with Josh McCown and they have minimal skill position talent around him, but they have an outstanding offensive line and an above average defense and can give teams some trouble. They’re a solid quarterback away from being a playoff caliber team.

The Jets also have their own quarterback problems, with starter Geno Smith out for at least a month with a broken jaw that was suffered in a brawl with his now-ex teammate. As embarrassing as the incident is, Ryan Fitzpatrick, now the starter, is a better quarterback. He’s a 33-year old journeyman, but he’s been a passable quarterback for a few years and is arguably coming off of the best season of his career, though one that was ended prematurely with a broken leg. Still, he’s an upgrade over Smith.

The Jets spent a lot of money fixing up their supporting cast this off-season too, bringing in Brandon Marshall, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine, all of whom commanded megadeals. Marshall is an upgrade at wide receiver opposite Eric Decker and Revis is still one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but Cromartie and Skrine were both overpaid. The team is also without stud defensive end Sheldon Richardson for the first 4 games of the season with a suspension and still has a serious issue at outside linebacker, so their defense isn’t as good as the Browns’ defense. With holes at tight end, guard, and running back, their offense isn’t much better than the Browns’ and their loaded offensive line. I’m not putting money on it, but I like the Browns as 3.5 point underdogs here on the road.

New York Jets 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Jacksonville is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Carolina team.

Carolina Panthers 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Oakland is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Cincinnati team.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. San Francisco is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 2.5 point home underdogs here against a good Minnesota team.

Minnesota Vikings 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Atlanta is a solid home team, but they’re not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Philadelphia team.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: 2015 NFL Week 1 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins), and so on.

I don’t want to pick all of the road favorites though and, while this is the toughest game of the week for me, I’m fading the public and taking the home underdog on principle as essentially a tiebreaker in this game for him. I have the Colts winning 12 games and the Bills 6 and I’d probably take the Colts as 2.5 point favorites, but I’m going with the Bills with the line at 3. The Colts might finish with the best record in the AFC, but that’s largely because of their schedule. There are at least 3 or 4 teams better than them in the AFC, Denver, Baltimore, Miami, and maybe New England, especially with Arthur Jones out for the season. They should be able to win this game, part of their easy schedule, but I’m taking the points for a no confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 22 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. Teams like Indianapolis (projected for 12 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Buffalo (projected for 6 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), Philadelphia (10 wins) as 3 point favorites over Atlanta (5 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins).

I don’t want to pick all of the road favorites though and I’m taking St. Louis (6 wins) as 4 point home underdogs to cover against Seattle (13 wins) here 4 reasons. For one, the line is 4, so it’s easier for the Rams to cover without winning. Two, Super Bowl losers tend to struggle week 1 of the following season, going 5-16 ATS in that spot in the past 21 instances. Three, the Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor with a holdout for at least the start of the season. Four, Seattle hasn’t been the same team away from Seattle over the past few years, going 48-21 (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.84 points per game) at home since 2007, as opposed to 26-42 (getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game) on the road. None of these are minor reasons, but I like the Rams here for a no confidence pick. Seattle is a much better team on paper, but, if I have to take a side, I’m going with the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks 16 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +4

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

I really like the Ravens this season. I think they’re one of the most talented teams in the NFL and on the Super Bowl short list. The Ravens lost a lot this off-season (Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee to name a few), as a result of their cap situation. However, they’ve also drafted well recently, adding Ricky Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, CJ Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams through the draft from 2012-2014. Between those 5 and Will Hill, who is still on a rookie deal, the Ravens have 6 impact players still on rookie deals. Add in a rookie class of Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Carl Davis in the first 3 rounds this year, widely regarded as a strong haul, and they have enough cheap, young talent to make up for some of the bigger contracts they have on their cap.

They are weak in the receiving corps, but they’re solid on the ground, solid under center, and have one of the best offensive lines in football. Their defense is also one of the best in football, supporting what was one of the top front 7s in the NFL last season with a reworked secondary that adds Kyle Arrington, gets a full season of Will Hill, and gets Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb back from injury. Wide receiver Breshad Perriman, their 1st round pick, is out for this one and they might not be quite as good as they were last season, but they were also better than their record last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL on paper.

They’re underdogs of 5 here, so they’re the side I’m taking, but I can’t do anything more than a low confidence pick on this one for two reasons. The first reason is that the Broncos are also very good. Peyton Manning is a question mark going into his age 39 season, they will have more injuries this season, after finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost last season, and have already lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the season, and they lost guys like Rahim Moore, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas this off-season.

However, Manning still played well overall last season, on a team that finished the regular season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, they did a solid job of replacing departed players with cheaper starters, and they have a budding star in CJ Anderson at running back. On top of that, the Ravens are not the same on the road, going 47-11 at home since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-34, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.14 points per game, on the road over that same time period. I do think this is one of the few games the Ravens will lose, but I will take the points for a low confidence bet.

Denver Broncos 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +5

Confidence: Low

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