2015 Week 10 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. Since then, all of those players, except Linder who is out for the season, have returned. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, as only Linder and possibly linebacker Dan Skuta, are out. That has shown itself on the field.

The Jaguars certainly aren’t a good team, but neither are the Ravens. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but this year’s version of this team is a far cry from last year’s version. They lost wide receiver Torrey Smith, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and nose tackle Haloti Ngata this off-season. Breshad Perriman, Smith’s replacement, has yet to play this season, while fellow starting wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs are out for the season with torn Achilles. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season, which has really hurt their offensive line and running game. As a result, they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential at -4.13%. They shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points here over the Jaguars.

The Ravens are also in a terrible spot. While the Jaguars host the Titans next week, a game in which the Jaguars are expected to be favored, the Ravens host the Rams, who are expected to be road favorites in Baltimore. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. The Ravens are only 1.5 home underdogs in the early line, so it’s possible they end up being home favorites, but, either way, the logic holds. The Ravens have an upcoming distraction, while the Jaguars don’t.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. This could easily be a Baltimore field goal win or a Jacksonville win. The Jaguars, as 5.5 point underdogs, are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)

R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina and Denver. The Packers still rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite those back-to-back tough road games, and should be able to bounce back at home against a vastly inferior Detroit team. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-12-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-4 straight up, with an absurd +610 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.19 points per game. They haven’t had that same kind of success on the road. Rodgers is also 23-11 ATS off of a loss in his career.

This line is pretty high at 11, but the Lions rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. If anything, this line is too low in Lambeau. The Packers would probably be favored by two touchdowns if they had a better showing on the road over the past 2 weeks. The public is all over the Packers, which concerns me, as the public always loses money in the long run, but I don’t see this game being very close and I’m pretty confident laying the 11 points.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Titans, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually the case when the public heavily backs one side, I’m going the other way. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. I think it does here, as the Panthers could be in for a huge letdown game following that big win. Teams are 61-104 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-32 ATS as favorites. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers as home underdogs and proceeded to lose straight up as 6 point road favorites in Indianapolis last week. It’s hard to get up for a lesser opponent after such a huge win.

This line is also too high. The Panthers rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and have had arguably the toughest schedule of any undefeated team (winning in Seattle, at home for Philadelphia, at home for Indianapolis, and at home for Green Bay), but a trip to Tennessee isn’t a walk in the park, despite Tennessee having just 2 wins. The Titans have moved the chains at a 73.53% rate in the 6 games started by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.20% rate. They’re better than their record.

It hurts the Titans that they’ll be without starting cornerback Jason McCourty in this one, but they’ve had one or both of their starting cornerbacks (Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty) injured in 6 of 8 games this season and have still played decently defensively. On offense, wide receiver Kendall Wright is out, but Mariota was able to light up the Saints without him last week. The Panthers’ obviously have a way better defense than the Saints, but the Titans could still have some offensive success and keep this within 4 points at home. Mariota is playing very well as a rookie, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while leading the Titans to that aforementioned offensive success.

This line is too high and has fallen from 5.5 and even 6 earlier this week, despite the public being all over Carolina, likely as a result of sharp action on Tennessee. I am going to side with the sharps over the public this week, as is usually a good idea. The Titans are not to be overlooked, especially in Tennessee, and the Panthers could easily do that after last week’s huge home win over the Packers. The Titans are also in a good spot off of an overtime win in New Orleans last week. Teams are 57-42 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-18 ATS as underdogs. I like the Titans a good deal.

Carolina Panthers 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)

This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at 24th. Given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, the fact that this line came off of 3, where it was earlier this week, is very intriguing, considering the Jets are the better team. It also doesn’t help the Bills that they’re coming off of a win. Rex Ryan coached teams are just 1-12 straight up off of a win since the start of the 2013 season (5-8 ATS), as Jets fans should know well. Given his personality and the type of coach he is, that makes a lot of sense.

The Jets are also in the better spot, as they head to Houston next week, while the Bills have a much tougher test in New England. While the early line favors the Jets by 3 over the Texans, the Bills are expected to be 10 point underdogs. Teams are 108-82 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, while teams are 34-52 ATS before being 10+ point road underdogs over that same time period. The Jets are not guaranteed to be 3+ point favorites next week and the Bills are not guaranteed to be 10+ point underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic holds. The Jets don’t have an upcoming distraction, while the Bills definitely do.

The one thing that worries me is injuries, as the Jets are more banged up than they’ve been all season, missing two key starters from their secondary, safety Calvin Pryor and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, will play, but is expected to get left thumb surgery tomorrow after the game. It’s his non-throwing hand, so it shouldn’t affect his ability to throw, but it could be problematic when he tries to hand the ball off or protect the ball while being sacked. He could also be knocked out of the game, which would force the Jets to turn to Geno Smith, who is a definite downgrade. Fitzpatrick made it through the game fine last week against Jacksonville, but the Bills should be able to pressure him more than the Jaguars did. Center Nick Mangold does return this week from a neck injury, which should help their offensive line majorly, but he also returned last week, before getting knocked out again.

The Bills, meanwhile, have quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all healthy for the 2nd straight week and are only missing wide receiver Percy Harvin and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Williams’ absence hurts their defense, but this is his 3rd straight missed game and their offense was a lot better last week with the aforementioned quartet healthy. The Jets should still be able to win by at least a field goal in this spot though.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]