2015 Week 13 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1)

The Eagles have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 90-31, dropping them out of 1st place in the weak NFC East and raising questions about whether or not head coach Chip Kelly will return next season. However, the fact that the Eagles are coming off of back-to-back blowout losses is actually good news for their chances to cover this week, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Teams are 49-32 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses of 20 points or more.

It makes sense if you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed off of such a poor stretch. They might not be overlooked by a New England team that is 33-16 ATS off of a loss in Tom Brady’s starts throughout his career, but they could definitely be embarrassed and I do think they’re undervalued. It also hurts the Patriots that they lost in overtime on the road, as those types of losses tend to be tougher to bounce back from. Teams are 30-57 ATS since 2002 off of a road overtime loss, unless they are road underdogs, which the Patriots aren’t this week.

Going back to the Eagles being undervalued, they are 9.5 point underdogs this week in New England. The Patriots rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Eagles rank 24th, but the Patriots are too banged up to be favored by this many points against the Eagles. The reason they are is because the public thinks the Eagles are awful, which isn’t true. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and they’re on the Patriots here. I think fading makes sense. The Patriots are missing running back Dion Lewis, wide receiver Julian Edelman, and tight end Rob Gronkowski with injury.

The Gronkowski injury is the newest and the biggest of the bunch. In games where Gronk plays over the past 5 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.81 YPA, 142 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. Linebacker Jamie Collins is expected back from a 4 game absence this week, but fellow linebacker Dont’a Hightower could be out. The Eagles, meanwhile, get quarterback Sam Bradford and left tackle Jason Peters back from injury, both of whom were missed over the past 2 games, particularly the latter, one of the top left tackles in the NFL.

It also helps the Eagles that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 125-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 102-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. I like the Eagles this week, but could only put money on them if the line moved to 10. About 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and the Patriots are just 7-12 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +9.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have been half passable at home, going 3-3 (4-2 ATS), including victories over winning opponents in the Falcons and Vikings, they’ve been horrendous on the road, losing all 5 games (1-4 ATS) by an average of 21.0 points per game. Their rate of moving the chains differential is -17.18% on the road, a truly awful showing, and really bad news considering they have a road game this week.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve also been a lot better offensively when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.16% rate in the 9 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Not only is Cutler healthy, but so are running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, huge parts of their offense. This will be just their 5th game having all three of them healthy this season. Given that, they shouldn’t have much of a problem winning by a touchdown or more at home against the 49ers.

Chicago Bears 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season a couple weeks ago hurts. He was a big part of why they improved. The Colts are also missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also key players.

The Steelers rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 7 games that Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. However, they’re far from completely healthy around him, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum with serious injuries, three players who were key to the Steelers’ strong offense last season. Of course, if Roethlisberger continues to play like he did last week in Seattle, it might not matter that they’re missing so much talent around him, but, then again, their improved defense looked pretty bad last week.

Considering the Colts rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential and have played better when Hasselbeck has played, this line seems high at a touchdown, even with the Colts also banged up. The Colts are also in a better spot, as they go to the lowly Jaguars next week (where they’re expected to be 1 point road favorites), while the Steelers have to go to Cincinnati. Underdogs (like the Colts) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Colts will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Steelers will be next week). The Steelers could also easily be 6 point underdogs in Cincinnati, arguably the toughest game of their season, and teams are 49-83 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. If they were healthier, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I’d still put money on the touchdown with the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have lost 7 straight games against the spread, making them just the 30th team since 1989 to do that.

That seems to have caused the odds makers to knock them down, to the point where they might be underrated now. Teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of 7+ straight against the spread losses. I know it’s a sample size, but, again this doesn’t happen very often and it makes sense that teams in this spot would cover at a higher rate. The Falcons rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd (and are missing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, arguably their best player) and yet the Buccaneers just 2 point favorites at home, after being favored by 1.5 at home last week. I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, so the Falcons look like a good pick in this one.

The Falcons are also in a great spot. They lost to the Buccaneers earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 54-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. Besides, the Buccaneers have had next to no homefield advantage in recent years so the location of this game doesn’t matter as much as a normal divisional matchup would. The Buccaneers are just 17-35 ATS at home since 2009. If we were getting a field goal with the Falcons, they’d be my Pick of the Week, and I’d still put money on them as 2 point underdogs. I’d take Atlanta up to field goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

The Seahawks are in a great spot here this week. While the Vikings have to play arguably the toughest game of their season in 4 days on the road on Thursday Night Football (in Arizona against the Cardinals), the Seahawks have an easy road game in Baltimore on deck, against a Ravens team that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are expected to be 6 point road underdogs, while the Seahawks are expected to be 4.5 point road favorites. Teams are 74-51 ATS before being favorites of 4 or more since 2012. On top of that, underdogs (like the Seahawks) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Seahawks will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Vikings will be next week). Making matters even worse for the Vikings is the short week ahead, as teams are 46-70 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

We are only getting 1 point with the Seahawks, which is unfortunate. The Seahawks only rank a few spots higher than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential (6th vs. 12th), which suggests this line could be accurate. However, the Seahawks have faced a much tougher schedule than the Vikings have. The Seahawks have played 5 teams with winning records, including Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati, but the Vikings have played just 3 teams with winning records, none of whom rank higher than 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks are probably the Vikings’ toughest opponent of the season so far, while the Seahawks have already played 4 or 5 better teams than the Vikings. The Seahawks are also not missing one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, like the Vikings are this week, missing defensive tackle Linval Josepy.

The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year. Rawls is second in the NFL in yards per carry and the Seahawks have won 2 of their last 3, after a 4-4 start. They do seem to be gaining a head of steam in an NFL that feels weak across the board this season. The Seahawks are 19-4 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012) and 23-6 ATS in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). That makes sense as this organization is so well run from top to bottom. Teams like that always seem to get better down the stretch, as long as they stay healthy. I wish we were getting more points with the Seahawks, but they’re still my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

After an impressive 6-0 start, the Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including two straight home losses, to the Chicago Bears last week and to these Detroit Lions three weeks ago. The line has really adjusted in the last week, as Green Bay, who was favored by 6 points on the early line last week, is now favored by just 3 points. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career.

However, as much as I love fading significant week-to-week line movements and as much as I love taking a quarterback like Rodgers off of a loss, I can’t take the Packers this week, even as mere 3 point favorites. I don’t think the line movement is an overreaction, as much as it is a correction. The Packers’ offense hasn’t been the same all season, since losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in the pre-season, and, while their defense was covering for them early in the year, it’s regressed back to normal over the past few weeks, hence the 1-4 stretch.

The Packers certainly are not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not good enough to be favored here by a field goal, as Detroit ranks 25th in that statistic. That might sound like a big difference, but most of the league is bunched up in the middle this year. Green Bay is closer to 25th than they are to 4th. I can’t have any sort of confidence in the Lions either, without getting a couple more points, but they should be the right side, especially since the public is all over Green Bay. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade them whenever it makes sense. It’s a no confidence pick of Detroit to start week 13.

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: None

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2015 Week 12 NFL Pick Results

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Week 12

Straight Up: 9-7

Against the Spread: 10-6

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 5-1

Low Confidence: 3-3

No Confidence: 1-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

2015

Straight Up: 103-73

Against the Spread: 76-96-4

Pick of the Week: 5-7

High Confidence: 9-8

Medium Confidence: 23-24-1

Low Confidence: 20-32-1

No Confidence: 19-27-2

Upset Picks: 12-20

Since 2013

Straight Up: 453-255-2 (64.0%)

Against the Spread: 374-319-17 (54.0%)

Pick of the Week: 24-20-2 (54.5%)

High Confidence: 43-29-1 (59.7%)

Medium Confidence: 112-79-1 (58.6%)

Low Confidence: 95-92-6 (50.8%)

No Confidence: 100-99-7 (50.3%)

Upset Picks: 57-75 (43.2%)

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