2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movements because they’re usually overreactions to one week of action and this line moved from Buffalo being favored by 1.5 to now being home underdogs of a field goal. That’s significant. However, I still like the Bengals this week, even with the public all over them. I think that line movement was legitimate and that it was a bad line in the first place. The 5-0 Bengals are a legitimate top contender, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to significantly improved health on both sides of the ball. The Bills, meanwhile, only rank 20th.

The other reason this line is legitimate is because the Bills are expected to be without Tyrod Taylor, who has been a huge boost to this offense this season, likely  forcing them to go back to EJ Manuel, who has never been good outside of the pre-season and who will be a big downgrade from Taylor. The Bills are getting healthier around the quarterback on offense, with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy coming back, though the latter has struggled with hamstring problems all year and might not be a big boost to a struggling running game. Their only good running back this season has been rookie Karlos Williams, who is once again out with a concussion. The Bills will miss him and Taylor in this one against what I mentioned is an almost completely healthy Bengals team.

It also helps the Bengals that they’re going into a bye and good teams tend to cover pretty easily going into a bye. I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Bengals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. The Bills, meanwhile, have the opposite of a bye on deck, as they have to pack up and go to London to face the Jaguars. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but when Taylor is officially ruled out (he’s listed as questionable, but no one is buying it), I’ll move it up to medium and put money on it, unless the line moves above 4.

Update: Taylor won’t be playing. I’d put money on Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)

The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. The Jets also get defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension this week, though it’s unclear how they’ll split up playing time between all their talented defensive linemen. Williams has played too well in Richardson’s absence to be a mere backup, but Muhammad Wilkerson is still dominant on the other side, while nose tackle Damon Harrison is equally established inside at nose tackle. It’s a good problem to have, but one the Jets will still have to manage properly. Overall, the Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’d still be hard to argue that they’re a top-4 team or anything like that, but they’re definitely a playoff contender and it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins, however, have also been equally surprisingly good, but you can’t really tell by their record, as they stand at 2-3. Still, they’ve been St. Louis pretty easily and also beat Philadelphia, while two of their losses were a return touchdown away from being completely different games, including a game in Atlanta last week where they took the then undefeated Falcons to overtime, only to lose on a pick six. A loss in New York to the Giants by 11 on a short week has been their only bad loss to date. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been great or anything, but he’s been serviceable, even with wide receiver DeSean Jackson going down with a severe hamstring injury week 1. Jackson could be back this week, but, just as he’s getting healthy, tight end Jordan Reed, such a big part of their offense with Jackson out, will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week and is out indefinitely. On top of that, stud left tackle Trent Williams has been ruled out for this one.

The defense is where the Redskins have made their biggest improvement, despite starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver missing time with injury. Both will once again be out this week. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done a good job, 2nd year cornerback Bashaud Breeland has been massively improved and been a huge asset with injuries at that position, while the front 7 is dominant, led by budding superstar Ryan Kerrigan, along with talented 2nd year player Trent Murphy, veteran holdovers Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker, and free agent acquisitions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean Francois. Despite injuries, they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, significantly improved from last season. Their defense has been able to cover for a lackluster offense and they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result. Like the Jets, it’s hard to argue that they’re actually as good as how they rank in that statistic, but, like the Jets, I think it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins are also in a way better spot, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season, a home game against Tampa Bay, on deck, while the Jets have arguably their toughest game on deck, a trip to New England. The Jets will be rested off of a bye, which helps, but I think we’re going to have two different levels of focus for this game and history supports that theory. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, while 6+ point favorites like the Jets are here are 48-83 ATS since 2002 before being 6+ point underdogs (the Jets are currently -9.5 in New England in the early line).

The Redskins are “only” 5 point favorites at home for Tampa Bay next week, but that could easily move to 6, while the Jets’ line could easily move to 10. If that happens, that opens up even more powerful trends. Teams are just 51-90 ATS before being 10+ point underdogs since 2010, while that 6 and 6 trend I mentioned earlier works the other way too. Teams are 69-57 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, including 12-5 ATS since 1989 when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. Even if those lines don’t move a little bit, the logic behind those trends still holds. This is one of the worst spots a team can be in.

Some might think it’ll be tough for the Redskins to bounce back off of a road overtime loss, that aforementioned game in Atlanta last week, and ordinarily that would be true, but it really helps that the Redskins are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-85 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 200-207 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.43 points per game, as opposed to 293-404 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game. That should nullify any effect of the Redskins’ overtime road loss last week, as teams are 18-17 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss in overtime since 1989, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games,.

The Redskins’ injuries caused me to switch this from being my Pick of the Week, but I still think they’re the right side for a high confidence pick. They’re banged up and clearly the less talented of these two teams going into this one, but they’re in by far the better spot and they have a touchdown of buffer room to work with as 7 point underdogs. Especially with the public taking the Jets pretty decisively, I’m confident in the Redskins to cover this week.

New York Jets 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)

I write about the Packers’ home dominance every week they play at home and there’s a good reason for that. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 38-4 straight up, with an absurd +603 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.36 points per game. This is well documented though, so we typically don’t get much line value with them at home, but they’ve still managed to cover 9 of their last 11.

I think they’re going to make it 10 of 12 this week, even though they’re favored by 10.5 points. San Diego is a solid team when they’re healthy, but they’re far from it right now. They’re expected to be without 3 starters on the offensive line for the 3rd straight week, including left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin, their two best offensive linemen. On top of that, replacement left tackle Chris Hairston is expected to be out, while right guard DJ Fluker has been dealing with an ankle problem all year. They won two weeks ago with a patchwork offensive line, but that was at home against a Cleveland defense that hasn’t really been able to stop anyone this season. They should have won last week against Pittsburgh, but that was more the result of Pittsburgh’s inept quarterback play than anything San Diego’s offensive line did well. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback, but he was under siege all day and that was against a Pittsburgh pass rush that isn’t nearly as good as Green Bay’s.

Green Bay’s offense isn’t quite what it was last season, partially due to injuries in the receiving corps, but they’re still a very good offense and the defense is much improved. They rank “just” 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I think they’re still arguably the most talented and most complete team in the NFL. Considering, on average, they win by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem making this another blowout in Lambeau, especially with a bye week on deck. Teams are 59-19 ATS as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye since 2002, which makes sense, as good teams with no upcoming distractions tend to take care of business. I know it’s boring, but the Packers at home are my Pick of the Week for the 2nd straight week.

Green Bay Packers 34 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

The Falcons won at home last week against the Redskins in overtime on a pick six, but the fact that the Falcons had to go to overtime really hurts them this week, as they go on the road on a short week to play the Saints in New Orleans on Thursday Night Football. Unsurprisingly, teams are 4-19 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game, including 2-14 ATS on the road, 1-13 ATS on the road after a home game, and 0-6 ATS as road favorites. All of those are small sample sizes, but it makes sense. That sequence is just so draining.

One of the most obvious negative effects of the situation is the fact that Julio Jones could be on a snap count. Jones has been dealing with a hamstring problem all year and, while he’s still played very well overall on the season, he hasn’t been quite as good over the past 2 weeks, catching 9 passes for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns, as opposed to a ridiculous 34 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 3 games of the season. Playing well 3 days after an overtime game is going to be tough, even for him, and the Falcons’ weapons in the passing game after him (Roddy White, Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme) are underwhelming. Despite that, the public is all over the Falcons as mere 3.5 point favorites here. This line might seem low, but the Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 5-0 record. They haven’t really played anyone good yet and, while the Saints aren’t exactly good, the Falcons have played close games with the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins and could easily have trouble with New Orleans this week on a short week, off of an overtime game.

All that being said, I wouldn’t put money on the Saints for a few reasons. For one, they’re missing significant guys with injury as well, particularly on offense, where left tackle Terron Armstead, left guard Tom DeLito, and wide receiver Marques Colston are all out. Defensively, cornerback Damian Swann is out, while defensive end Bobby Richardson is highly questionable after not practicing all week.  The Falcons have a couple guys out too, outside linebacker Justin Durant and center Mike Person, but the guys the Saints are missing are far more important, particularly Armstead. Armstead has been one of the best left tackles in the league this year when healthy and the Saints couldn’t pass protect at all last week against Philadelphia without him. On top of that, the Saints do have a harder game than the Falcons do on deck, as they have to go to Indianapolis, while Atlanta goes to Tennessee. That could provide a little bit more of a distraction and make it a little harder to focus this week, though those games are 10 days off and this is such a big rivalry that it could easily not matter.

At this point last year, I definitely would have put money on the Saints. There was a point last year where they had won 20 straight home games (18-1-1 ATS) and went 20-2 ATS off of a loss (with Drew Brees and Sean Payton) since 2008, including 12-1 ATS at home off of a loss. However, since then, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home, 5-6 ATS off of a loss, and 3-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so those trends have certainly lost some luster. I still think the Saints are the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Low

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