2019 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-0-1)

Detroit +7 is one of two lines I locked in earlier this week, along with Cleveland +7. I legitimately don’t understand this line. It was at 6 last week and I thought it might be closer to 3 following the Lions’ upset victory in Philadelphia, but instead it’s gone up to 7. I’ve thought the Lions are an underrated team since before the season started. I loved the way their defense played down the stretch last season, after the acquisition of defensive tackle Damon Harrison and the breakout of fellow defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, and then they added defensive end Trey Flowers to the mix in free agency this off-season, giving them one of the best defensive lines in the league.

Their offense slowed down around the time their defense improved last season, so no one paid much attention to their defensive improvement, but their offense struggles were in large part due to quarterback Matt Stafford playing through a broken back and not having most of his weapons healthy either. I didn’t have them making the post-season coming into the season, but that was more due to how loaded the NFC is more than anything. Off to a 2-0-1 start, the Lions could easily end up qualifying for the post-season when all is said and done. 

Given that, it’s really hard to figure out why they should be touchdown underdogs at home against anyone. The Chiefs are one of the top teams in the league and have a juggernaut offense even without top wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher, but their defense still has a hard time getting off the field and their average point differential on the road since the start of last season is +6.1, with just 3 wins by more than a touchdown. Why are they expected to beat an above average Lions team by multiple scores?

The one concern here is that Matt Stafford popped up on the injury report on Friday after tweaking his hip in practice. This is obviously something that I didn’t know when I locked this line in earlier this week and all sources are confirming he’ll still play (and the line hasn’t moved), but there’s a possibility he’ll be less than 100%, so that does create some uncertainty here. Unless I hear otherwise on Saturday, I’m proceeding with this as my Pick of the Week because we’re getting so much line value (my calculated line even pricing in the uncertainty with Stafford is Kansas City -1). The money line is also worth a bet, as the Lions have a great chance to pull the upset straight up if Stafford’s injury proves to be nothing.

Final Update: Matt Stafford seems like he’s going to be fine, but the Lions will be without top cornerback Darius Slay, who practiced all week in limited fashion, but was ruled out before gametime when his hamstring injury tightened. That hurts the Lions’ chances of pulling the upset, but they should still be able to keep this close game and cover this inflated spread.

Detroit Lions 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +255

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

I typically like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This line has climbed all the way from Baltimore -4 on the early line last week to Baltimore -7 this week and it really doesn’t make sense why. In the past week, the Ravens lost in Kansas City in a game that was not close most of the way, while the Browns lost at home by a touchdown to the Rams in a game they had a chance to send to overtime at the end. The Browns have injury concerns, with starting cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both unlikely to play again this week, but the Browns are in better shape injury wise than last week, with starting safety Damarious Randall set to return and possibly right tackle Chris Hubbard as well, and they’re pretty deep at cornerback, so that’s the one position where they can afford to have some injuries.

The Ravens aren’t exactly healthy either, set to miss starting cornerback Jimmy Smith once again. They had already lost fellow starting cornerback Tavon Young for the season before the year began and before that they had already lost 5 of their top-11 in terms of defensive snaps played from 2018 in the off-season. The Ravens had one of the best defenses in the league last year, which carried them to the post-season with a developing Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but, with a few exceptions, this is almost a completely different defense than last year. The addition of Earl Thomas at safety is big, but he can’t mask all of their other losses by himself. Last year, they were one of the few defenses that gave Kansas City trouble, nearly leading to the upset in Kansas City. Last week, they allowed the Chiefs to pick up a first down or score a touchdown on 48.44% of their offensive snaps.

The Ravens are obviously better on offense this year with Lamar Jackson seemingly making a second year leap and they could make the playoffs even with their defense being a shell of what it was, but Jackson has also faced a very easy slate of defenses so far this season, as the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chiefs are all likely to finish among the worst defenses in the league this season. Jackson got lucky with an easy slate of defenses last year as well, with 5 of his 8 starts coming against teams that finished in the bottom-10 in first down rate allowed. Even at less than 100%, the Browns’ defense is better than what Jackson has been used to facing thus far in his career. I have the Ravens a little higher than the Browns in my roster rankings right now, but not nearly enough to justify this line being a full touchdown. This should be a close game and it wouldn’t shock me if the Browns were able to win outright, so I like the Browns +7 a good amount.

Final Update: The Ravens lost key defensive lineman Brandon Williams, one of four remaining healthy starters from 2018, to a late week knee injury. This just solidifies my pick of Cleveland. With Tavon Young, Jimmy Smith, and Brandon Williams out, the Ravens have comparable injury problems to the Browns, who are without safety Morgan Burnett, linebacker Christian Kirksey, and tight end David Njoku in addition to their two-top cornerbacks, but do get back safety Damarious Randall and right tackle Chris Hubbard.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: High

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)

The Colts have gotten off to a 2-1 start with new starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but they are one of the most banged up teams in the league right now. On offense, top wide receiver TY Hilton is doubtful, while their defense will be without their best player linebacker Darius Leonard, it’s best defensive back safety Malik Hooker, and possibly starting cornerback Pierre Desir, who only got a limited practice in on Friday, and expected starting defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who was yet to play this season and only got limited work in practice this week. 

Despite that, this line has jumped to Indianapolis -7 after the Colts’ narrow home victory over the Falcons last week, a game in which they lost the first down rate battle. On the season, they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.70%. The Colts don’t have a tough opponent this week, with the Raiders (26th in first down rate at -4.75%) coming to town, but, without the Colts’ roster as banged up as it is, I only have this line calculated at Indianapolis -4, so we’re getting pretty significant line value here. 

On top of that, this could be a look ahead spot for the Colts ahead of a trip to Kansas City next week. Favorites of 7+ are just 13-30 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 7+ and the Colts are currently 8.5-point underdogs on the early line. They could easily overlook the Raiders, something that could really hurt them at much less than 100%. This should be a close game, so I like the Raiders a lot this week.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Typically, playing on a short week benefits the home team significantly, as they don’t have to travel, which gives them more preparation time on a short week. There are a couple exceptions. The first exception is when it’s a divisional matchup, as teams tend to be much more familiar with divisional opponents than non-divisional opponents and not need as much preparation. The second exception is when the road team is better than the home team, as better teams tend to handle the short week better. 

None of those exceptions are in play this week, as the Packers are favored here at home against an Eagles team who they haven’t played since 2016. Non-divisional home favorites are 35-15 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football (excluding week 1), so the Packers should have a good chance to cover this spread. They’ve also been a dominant home team with Aaron Rodgers under center over the past decade or so, going 40-19 ATS at home in games Aaron Rodgers has started and finished since 2011. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers, with this line shifting from Green Bay -3 on the early line last week to now Green Bay -5 this week. The line moved because the Eagles lost at home to the Lions, but the Lions are an underrated team who can be a legitimate playoff contender in the NFC and the Eagles actually won the first down rate battle in that game by 6.23%. 

Now the Eagles seem to be underrated. I’ve liked the Packers since the off-season and I think they’re one of the top few teams in the league, but I still have this line calculated at only Green Bay -4. The homefield advantage on a short week should help them significantly, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a really close game, so I’m probably not going to bet on Green Bay at -5. I may reconsider tomorrow. I am also locking in a couple picks I love this week before the lines move. One of those games is likely to be my Pick of the Week.

CLE +7 @ BAL

DET +7 vs. KC

Final Update: Za’Darius Smith is questionable after suffering a hamstring injury in practice on Tuesday. He’s expected to play, but could be limited. The free agent acquisition been one of the best edge defenders in the league thus far this season and he’s been a big part of why the Packers have been so good defensively this year, so it would definitely hurt the Packers if he couldn’t play at full strength. I’m going to leave this as a low confidence pick, even though the Packers are in a great spot.

Green Bay Packers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5

Confidence: Low

2019 Week 3 NFL Pick Results

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2019

Total Against the Spread: 24-22-2

Pick of the Week: 2-1

High Confidence Picks: 5-2-1

Medium Confidence Picks: 5-6-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 12-9-2

Low Confidence Picks: 5-7

No Confidence Picks: 7-6

Upset Picks: 5-3

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (59.74%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (61.76%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.14%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (60.66%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.47%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (61.73%)

Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.30%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 869-732-49 (54.15%)

Pick of the Week: 63-41-3 (60.28%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 414-301-20 (57.69%)

Upset Picks: 137-156-1 (46.77%)

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

This was the toughest game of the week for me to decide. The Bears did well against bad teams last year, going 10-3 with an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game, but they lost a pair of key contributors in the secondary this off-season (safety Adrian Amos and cornerback Bryce Callahan) and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky seems to be regressing in his third season in the league. Last week, they barely won in Denver in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle. They haven’t faced the easiest schedule, but it’s very concerning that their offense has put together just one touchdown drive in two games. 

This week, the Redskins are a step down in competition, but I only have this line calculated at Chicago -5.5, so we’re not getting much line value with them at Chicago -4 and the Bears are also in a potential look ahead spot with the Vikings on deck. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them look past the lowly Redskins a little bit, but the Redskins are getting healthier on defense with defensive end Jonathan Allen and cornerback Fabian Moreau set to return from injury and are fully capable of giving the Bears a game if the Bears don’t bring their best effort. I’m taking the Bears for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident in them at all.

Chicago Bears 21 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -4

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

The Seahawks are 2-0, but they’ve been far from impressive, winning those two games by a combined 3 points, despite facing a Bengals team that was demolished the following week by the 49ers and a Steelers team that lost starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to an injury in the first half. In first down rate differential, the Seahawks are at an even +0.00%. Their good luck continues as they now get to face a Saints team that is without starting quarterback Drew Brees for 6 weeks, but the Seahawks could still have a hard time covering as 4.5 point home favorites.

The Saints still have a strong supporting cast around the quarterback and a pair of backup quarterbacks in Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill that Sean Payton and the coaching staff like and can build a game plan around. Even without Brees, I have the Saints ranked just behind the Seahawks in my roster rankings, so we’re getting some line value with the Saints at +4.5. There’s not enough here to bet the Saints confidently, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

The Eagles are in a tough spot this week. Not only do they have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, a spot favorites tend to struggle in (55-76 ATS since 2012), but they have to play one of the top teams in the conference, the Green Bay Packers. They could easily not give their best effort this week against the Lions. However, I can’t take the Lions with any confidence because we’re not getting any line value with them. This line has been pushed down to Philadelphia -5, likely because the Eagles will be without wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery, but wide receiver was the one spot the Eagles could afford to have injuries. 

Even without their top-2, the Eagles have a capable trio of Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Mack Collins and they also still have talented tight end Zach Ertz and possibly talented backup tight end Dallas Goedert, who was able to return to practice on Friday after suffering an injury last week as well. More concerning are the Eagles’ injuries at defensive tackle, where Malik Jackson and Timmy Jernigan have gone down for the season, but even without them I actually have this line calculated at Philadelphia -6.5. 

The Lions have their own injury concerns, with linebacker Jarrad Davis, defensive end Da’Shawn Hand, left tackle Taylor Decker, and cornerback Rashaan Melvin all questionable and the Eagles had one of the deepest rosters in the league coming into the season, so they’re still one of the best teams in the league despite being banged up. I’m taking the Lions because I’m not expecting the Eagles’ best effort in a bad spot, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them cover this spread regardless. Five points is not enough cushion to be confident in Detroit.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (0-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)

The Packers have started the season 2-0, beating a pair of fellow playoff contenders in their division in the Bears and Vikings, and, perhaps most impressively, they’ve done it without getting a great performance from their offense. While their defense ranks 2nd in the league in first down rate allowed through two weeks at 26.61%, their offense ranks just 29th at 29.37%. You have to figure this offense isn’t going to be this bad all season and it’s great to see their revamped defense get off to such a great start. 

With the Saints losing Drew Brees to injury and the Eagles suffering several key losses as well, the Packers now rank 2nd in my roster rankings behind the Patriots, so we’re getting good line value with them as only 7-point favorites at home against a mediocre Broncos team. I have this line calculated at Green Bay -11 and that’s even before taking into account that the Packers are 39-19 ATS at home in games Aaron Rodgers has started and finished since 2011. 

This would be a bigger play if the Packers didn’t have to play again in 4 days. Favorites are 55-76 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and the Packers have a particularly important game on deck against the Eagles, so they might not play their best game this week. Even still, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win by multiple scores at home against by far the easiest opponent they’ve faced this season and there’s too much value with the Packers to not place a bet on them at home.

Green Bay Packers 23 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium