2021 NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)

The Bills don’t have the best record in the league at 6-3, but they lead the league in point differential by a wide margin at +145, as all three of their losses have come by just one score, while their six wins have come by an average of 26.2 points per game, with none coming by fewer than 15 points. Normally, this would be a sign that the Bills will win at a higher rate going forward, as their record in close games starts to even out, but the Bills have also faced by far the easiest schedule in the league. Six of their nine games have come against teams with three wins or fewer and the Bills are just 1-2 in their other three games.

There are still a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the Bills, who rank 1st and 3rd respectively in defensive and special teams efficiency, even when schedule is taken into account, and are more talented on offense than their 12th place rank in efficiency suggests, but they face a much tougher test than they are used to this week, with the Colts coming to town. The Colts are just 5-5, but that still gives them the 4th best record of any of the Bills’ opponents this season and they are even better than their record suggests.

The Colts have also faced a relatively easy schedule, but they have still faced a tougher schedule than the Bills and they have a +38 point differential, 9th in the NFL, despite suffering through some early season injuries, including the extended absence of their two best offensive linemen Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson and an ankle injury that limited quarterback Carson Wentz for several weeks. The Colts average margin of victory has been 14.2 points per game, while their five losses have all come against 2020 playoff qualifiers, including a pair of overtime losses, a loss by a field goal, a 9-point loss in a game in which Wentz was far from 100%, and a 12-point loss in week one.

We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Colts at +7.5 and I’m hesitant to bet big against a team who has so many blowout victories on the season, but we’re still getting some line value with the Colts, who should be able to at least keep this game close like most of their games, while giving the Bills a much tougher test than most of the teams that have the Bills blown out. The Colts are also in a better spot, with the Bills having to play again in four days on Thursday Night Football, a situation in which favorites cover at just a 40.7% rate all-time. This isn’t a big play and I wouldn’t take the Colts at +7, but if you can find a good +7.5, they are worth a bet.

Buffalo Bills 23 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-6) at New York Jets (2-7)

One thing I like to do is go against significant week-to-week line movements as, barring injuries, they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is a great example. A week ago, the Jets were favored by a couple points on the early line, but the Dolphins pulled an upset over the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, while the Jets were blown out in Buffalo and now the Jets are 3.5-point home underdogs, without any significant injury developments on either side.

The Dolphins’ win over the Ravens is much less impressive when you take into account that the Ravens were coming off of an overtime game and playing a Thursday game, a spot in which teams only cover the spread at a 16.0% rate, while the Jets’ 28-point loss to the Bills isn’t as bad when you take into account that all six of the Bills wins have come by 15 points or more (with an average margin of victory of 26.2 points) and that the Bills are one of the top few teams in the league. 

The Jets are just 2-7, but the Dolphins have just one more win and, aside from last week’s fluky win over the Ravens, their other two wins have come in a one-score win over the Texans, one of the worst teams in the league, and by one-point over the Patriots week one in a game in which the Patriots won the first down rate and yards per play battle, but lost a pair of fumbles, including one in easy field goal range that could have won the game. 

The Dolphins were 10-6 a year ago, but a dropoff always seemed inevitable, as they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%), and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), which was actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). They were always likely to disappoint this season and it’s not surprising they have done so in such a big way.

Even with last week’s win over the Ravens taken into account, the Dolphins rank just 30th, 24th, and 25th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency and probably shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone, except maybe the Texans. The Jets also are likely getting an upgrade at quarterback with veteran Joe Flacco taking over for inexperienced former undrafted free agent Mike White. My calculated line is still about where this line was last week, favoring the Jets by 1.5 points.

On top of that, the Dolphins are also in a bad spot as a result of last week’s win, as teams cover the spread at just a 40.9% rate all-time after winning as home underdogs of 5 points or more, which applies to the Dolphins, who were 7.5-point home underdogs last week. Part of that is because teams tend to be overvalued after a big home win that could easily prove to be a fluke, which I’ve already covered, but teams could also be overconfident in this spot as well.

It would not be a surprise to see the Dolphins look past the Jets, who, by contrast, are coming off of a blowout loss and will want to play their hardest to avoid further embarrassment. With about 1 out of every 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer, we’re getting great line value with the Jets at +3.5 and, between that and the Jets being in a good spot, this is worth a big play, both against the spread and on the money line.

New York Jets 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)

Both of these teams are 5-4, but the Bengals hold a significant edge in point differential, +33 vs. -20. That normally would suggest that the Bengals are the better team, but that doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, which Cincinnati has had among the weakest. In schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, the Raiders rank 18th, 4th, and 26th while the Bengals rank 24th, 15th, and 17th. 

Despite that, the Bengals are favored here in Las Vegas. It’s only by a point, but it comes a week after the Raiders were just 2.5-point home underdogs against the Chiefs, so it’s a bit of a surprising line. The Raiders lost big to the Chiefs last week, but the Chiefs are a much better team than the Bengals and were due for a big game. That loss also puts the Raiders in a good spot this week, as teams tend to bounce back from big home losses as underdogs, covering the spread at a 59.0% rate as home underdogs the week following a loss by 14 points or more as home underdogs. 

The week prior to last, the Raiders lost to the Giants, but the Giants are better than their record, were at home, and the Raiders still won the first down rate and yards per play battle, with the game swinging on the turnover margin, including a pick six, both of which are much less predictive than first down rate and yards per play. The public has noticed that the Raiders have not had good results in their two games without Henry Ruggs, but I don’t think it’s as bad as the final scores have looked and I don’t think Ruggs is as irreplaceable as the general public seems to think he was, so we’re getting some value with the Raiders, who are also in a good spot, back at home after a bad home loss. This isn’t a big play, but the Raiders should be the right side, both as a money line pick and against the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +1

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)

These two teams had very different weeks last week, with the Patriots beating the Browns by 38 and the Falcons losing to the Cowboys by 40. Typically, a team who gets blown out fares better the following week against the spread than a team that wins by a wide margin, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a blowout loss and, as a result, cover the spread at a 58.1% rate. However, I am not sure that fully applies here with the Falcons as, while they could easily be overlooked by the Patriots and they could play a much more focused game after being embarrassed, they also aren’t undervalued by the oddsmakers.

This spread has shifted up to a full touchdown from the four points the Patriots were favored by on the early line last week and normally I like to fade a significant line movement like that, as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is still too low, as the line was too low to begin with and a significant shift was justified after the results of last week’s games. The Patriots’ win was even more impressive than most realize because, like the Patriots, the Browns are legitimately a few plays away from having 2-3 more wins and, coming into last week’s game, the Browns were one of just two teams in the league to rank in the top-10 in first down rate, yards per play, first down rate allowed, and yards per play allowed. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ loss was even more concerning than most realize because the Falcons have faced a very easy schedule overall this season and now have been blown out by two of the three teams they have faced with a winning record, with the exception being a win over the Saints, who are starting a backup quarterback. Aside from their win over the Saints, the Falcons’ wins have come against teams who are a combined 8-20 on the season, with none possessing a record better than 3-6.

Six of the Falcons’ nine results this season would have covered this seven point spread, but the Patriots are much more in line with the three teams who beat the Falcons by multiple scores (Eagles, Buccaneers, and Cowboys) than the teams the Falcons have played closely or beaten (Saints, Washington, Panthers, Jets, Giants, and Dolphins). Their loss to the Buccaneers could have been closer had it not been for two pick sixes, but they also lost the first down rate battle by 7.11% in that game. Overall, the Falcons rank 27th, 22nd, and 32nd in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, while the Patriots rank 13th, 6th, and 8th. 

Despite their records being somewhat similar, this is a matchup between a team in the top quarter of the league and a team in the bottom and my calculated line has the Patriots favored by 10 in this game, so even with the significant line movement up to seven, we are still getting value with the Patriots. It’s not quite enough line value to bet the Patriots, who could still be in a bad spot against a team who was just blown out and, as a result, could bounce back with one of their best efforts of the season, but if this line moves down to 6.5 before gametime or if Falcons feature back Cordarrelle Patterson, currently a game-time decision, is ruled out, I would recommend betting the Patriots. I will have an update if either of those things happen.

Update: This line has dropped to 6.5 across the board despite it looking unlikely that Cordarrelle Patterson will play. I am going to lock this in now because it could go back up after Patterson is ruled out and even if he plays I like New England enough to bet them.

New England Patriots 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Medium

2021 Week 10 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

PHI +2.5 @ DEN

High Confidence Picks

DET +8.5 @ PIT

SF +4 vs. LAR

Medium Confidence Picks

MIA +7.5 vs. BAL

TB -9.5 @ WAS

DAL -8.5 vs. ATL

Low Confidence Picks

CLE +2.5 @ NE

SEA +3.5 @ GB

TEN -3 vs. NO

CAR +7.5 @ ARZ

JAX +10 @ IND

No Confidence Picks

LAC -3 vs. MIN

BUF -13 @ NYJ

LV +2.5 vs. KC

Upset Picks

CLE +115 @ NE

PHI +115 @ DEN

SF +170 vs. LAR

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

The 49ers are just 3-5, but their efficiency ratings are much better than their record, especially when adjusted for their above average schedule. Overall, they rank 7th, 7th, and 13th on offense, defensive, and special teams efficiency, which is more predictive of future winning than wins or points are. The 49ers’ biggest issue has been the turnover margin, as they are tied for 2nd worst in the league at -9, but turnover margin has almost no week-to-week predictability, so the 49ers are not any more than likely than any other team to continue struggling in the turnover margin going forward and, assuming they can play turnover neutral football, they should be a tougher opponent than their record suggests for the foreseeable future.

The 49ers are still not near full strength due to injuries, but I think they are in relatively better injury shape than they have been most of the season, with key players like left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle, and safety Jimmie Ward all in expected to be in the lineup this week, the first time they have all played in the same game since week 4. The 49ers are coming off of their worst game of the season, losing at home to the Cardinals led by a backup quarterback, but Ward didn’t play in that game and it’s very possible the 49ers just looked past the Cardinals with this game on deck. The Rams didn’t have a good week either last week and yet this line shifted in San Francisco’s favor, moving from Rams -3 on the early line last week to -4 this week, a significant shift given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The Rams are obviously one of the top teams in the league, especially with Von Miller coming in to give them a boost on defense at the edge defender spot and Odell Beckham giving them a replacement for the injured Robert Woods, but the 49ers are much better than their record and too good to be getting 4 points at home in this game, especially with Beckham unlikely to play a full snap count in his first game with the team. My calculated line is even, so we’re getting significant line value with this line being on the other side of 3, with about 1 out of 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer. The 49ers are good enough to pull this upset at home and even if they don’t, I like their chances of keeping this close enough to cover the spread. This is a big play.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +4

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)

The Packers get Aaron Rodgers back from a one-game absence this week and they are 7-1 with him this season, but they have more reason to be concerned than it seems. Rodgers is returning, but they remain without three of their best players, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who have missed most or all of the season. The Packers have still been winning games without them, but they rank just 13th, 10th, and 30th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency and don’t really have any dominant wins. 

Just two of their wins came by more than 10 points and those came in games in which the Packers were down at halftime at home to the winless Lions and in which the Packers were outgained at home on a per play basis by a mediocre Washington team. The Packers did go into Arizona and win, but the Packers were very reliant in the turnover battle in that game, losing the first down rate battle by 5.93%, but winning by a field goal in a game in which the Packers won the turnover battle by three.

One of those turnovers was a late interception to seal the game when the Cardinals were in range to at least send the game to overtime, if not win outright. The Packers scored off the Cardinals’ other two takeaways too, so if any one of those turnovers doesn’t happen, the Packers could have easily lost. Given how inconsistent turnover margins are on a week-to-week basis, the Packers can’t count on that again and, given that the Cardinals outperformed the Packers in other key metrics, the Cardinals would likely win a rematch more often than not, so even that was not a dominant win.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, get Russell Wilson back from a three-game absence and might be a little underrated. In fact, I have them as the slightly better of these two teams right now. The Seahawks were just 2-3 with Wilson, but they faced a tough schedule and, even without Wilson, the Seahawks outscored their opponents across 3 games, as they went just 1-2, but had a chance to win both games they lost. Even with Wilson missing half of the season, they rank 17th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their defense and special teams rank 19th and 12th respectively. 

Despite possibly being the better team right now, the Seahawks are underdogs of more than a field goal in Green Bay. My calculated line has the Packers at -1, so we’re getting significant line value with the Seahawks at +3.5, especially when you consider that about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. However, I don’t want to bet against the Packers in Green Bay, where they are 47-22 ATS in games in front of fans in which Aaron Rodgers starts and finishes. Rodgers himself has a QB rating that is about 10 points higher at home than on the road, well beyond the average home/road differential. Between that and the uncertainty with both quarterbacks in their first game back, I don’t want to bet this game, but the Seahawks are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 23 Seattle Seahawks 21

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

There is still a lot of uncertainty on the status of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in this game, as both are being called gametime decisions, but a line has still been posted for most of the week at Arizona -10. The Cardinals were only 2-point underdogs in San Francisco for most of last week despite the uncertainty of Murray and Hopkins, before the line moved to 5.5 by gametime when both were ruled out, so this line being posted favoring Arizona by double digits isn’t a guarantee that Murray and Hopkins play, but this does seem like a different situation than last week, at least for Murray, who returned to practice Friday and seems to be on the right side of questionable.

Murray might not be 100% though and Hopkins may be on the wrong side of questionable, not practicing at all this week for the second straight week. Hopkins plays despite not practicing more than maybe any player in the league and last week was just the third missed game of his 9-year career, playing through multiple ailments throughout his career, so if anyone can play despite missing the last two weeks of practice, it’s him, but the missed practice time is not a good sign for his status. 

On top of that, the Cardinals could be without Rondale Moore, who would be Hopkins’ replacement, but is currently in the concussion protocol and may not be cleared by gametime. The Cardinals’ defense is missing a key player as well, with JJ Watt out for the season, so this team is not at the same strength it was when they started the season 7-0. Even if they were, it’s possible the Cardinals will slack off a little bit this week after beating the 49ers with a backup quarterback last week, similar to how the Cowboys disappointed last week as big home favorites in Dak Prescott’s return, after beating the Vikings in Minnesota with a backup quarterback.

Despite all that, I still want to pick the Cardinals, as my calculated line even with injury uncertainty taken into account is Arizona -13. The Panthers are 4-5, but three of their wins have come against among the worst teams in the league, the Falcons, Jets, and Texans and they didn’t win any of those games convincingly. Their defense is one of the best in the league with Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Thompson now in the lineup healthy, but their offense has been one of the worst in the league and is worse than their defense is good.

Starting quarterback Sam Darnold was part of the problem for this Panthers offense, but him being injured is not necessarily a good thing for this team, as his backup PJ Walker could easily be a downgrade, given how poorly the former undrafted free agent and XFL product has played in his limited NFL career thus far, completing less than 50% of his passes with one touchdown to five interceptions and a 42.0 QB rating. He’s arguably the least qualified backup quarterback in the NFL. There is too much uncertainty here to bet on the Cardinals, but they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes as of right now. If Murray is ruled out, this line will obviously change and I will update this pick, but I don’t see myself betting either side regardless of what happens.

Update: Rondale Moore is expected to play, but both Murray and Hopkins seem unlikely to play. I don’t know why the odds makers have posted a line without any certainty about Murray’s status in back-to-back weeks, but they have been quickly lowering this line, down to 7.5 now. I don’t know if it will keep falling when Murray and Hopkins are officially ruled out, but my calculated line if both don’t play is Arizona -6.5, so I am going to be on the Panthers for the time being, as it will be tough for Colt McCoy to play at the same level he played at last week and go on the road and beat a great defense by multiple scores. I will have a final update before gametime.

Update: Murray and Hopkins are out. I wouldn’t recommend betting Carolina at +7.5, but if you are going to do so, you’ll need to lock it in soon as the line has started to drop to 7 in some places.

Arizona Cardinals 16 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-2)

The Titans won in their first game without Derrick Henry last week, an impressive upset victory in Los Angeles against the Rams, but there is still a lot of reason to be concerned, after this offense managed just 3.5 yards per play. The Titans won’t be able to get two pick sixes in the same game every week like they did against the Rams and it looks likely that their offense will be taking a big step back without Derrick Henry. Making matters even worse, they seem likely to be without talented wide receiver Julio Jones, who re-aggravated his hamstring injury in practice this week. However, somehow the Titans are only 3-point home favorites against the Saints, so it’s not as if they are overrated, at least not any more than the Saints are. 

The Saints are 5-3 and have one of the best defenses in the league, but their offense is in even worse shape than the Titans’ offense, as the Titans still at least have a solid quarterback and a legitimate #1 receiver. The Saints, meanwhile, are starting a backup quarterback in Trevor Siemian, with a receiving corps that is one of the least experienced in the league, without expected #1 receiver Michael Thomas, stud left tackle Terron Armstead, and now they are without talented feature back Alvin Kamara, which is almost as big of a loss as Henry. My calculated line has Tennessee favored by 5, so we’re getting line value with Tennessee -3, though not quite enough to bet this confidently.

Tennessee Titans 19 New Orleans Saints 14

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (2-6)

It’s tough to know what to make of the Bills this season, as a result, this is a tough game to pick against the spread. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL with a +117 point differential and all three of their losses have come by one score, but they have also faced the easiest schedule in the league. Their five wins have come against teams who are a combined 14-32 and last week they lost to a Jaguars team that had just one win on the season prior. Despite that loss last week, this line has not shifted at all from favoring the Bills by 13 on the early line last week. The Bills have still blown out most of the weak opponents they have faced and they should do so again here, but we’re not getting any line value either way with this game, as Buffalo -13 is right where my calculated line is. I’m taking the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but this is close to a coin flip.

Buffalo Bills 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -13

Confidence: None