2022 Week 16 NFL Picks

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

The Lions started the season 1-6, but have since won six of the past seven games to get back to .500, putting themselves very much in the mix for a playoff spot. In some ways, their improvement was predictable. Four of their first six losses came by one score, despite having significant injuries on offense and a defense that was the worst in the league, which tends to be less consistent week-to-week than poor offensive play. In recent weeks, their offense has been significantly healthier, their defense hasn’t been quite as bad, and they’ve won three of four one-score games, leading to them winning six of their past seven games.

There are some reasons to believe they won’t be quite as successful going forward as they have been in their past seven games though, as they have had a +9 turnover margin over those seven games, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Lions rank a middling 16th on the season and, even though they’re healthier than they were earlier in the season, the Lions are also a middling team in my roster rankings, about a half point above average.

This week, the Lions face the Panthers, who have also been significantly better in recent weeks, particularly since switching to Sam Darnold at quarterback, who has been by far their best option under center this season. After being one of the worst few teams in the league in schedule adjusted efficiency earlier in the year, the Panthers have moved up to 24th (-3.88), and, with Darnold under center, they are only about one point below average in my roster rankings. 

Given that they’re only slightly below average with Darnold under center, the Panthers should have a good chance to win this game at home against the middling Lions, who are probably not going to have the same turnover success they have had in recent weeks. Despite that, the Panthers are 2.5-point underdogs in this game. I would need a full field goal for the Panthers to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +125, as the Panthers should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game,

Carolina Panthers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)

The Titans started the season 7-3, but have since fallen back to earth with four straight losses, leaving them in a battle for a playoff spot, even in the weakest division in the AFC. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. Their only win against a team that is 6-8 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-6-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans. On top of that, all of the Titans’ wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. 

Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Meanwhile, the Titans’ seven losses have come by a combined 84 points, leading to an underwhelming -38 point differential, despite a below average schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Titans are even worse, ranking 30th at -6.25.

The Titans are also extremely banged up, which has been a problem for them for most of the season, but things have gone from bad to worse recently. Already without talented left tackle Taylor Lewan for the season, the Titans will also be missing their other two best offensive linemen, center Ben Jones and right guard Nate Davis, this week, while quarterback Ryan Tannehill is out after reaggravating an ankle injury that cost him two games earlier this season, forcing raw rookie backup Malik Willis into action, after he struggled mightily to move the ball through the air in his previous stint as the starter. 

The Titans’ defense will get back top edge defender Denico Autry, starting safety Amani Hooker, and possibly every down linebacker Zach Cunningham this week, but they remain without four expected week one starters, edge defender Harold Landry, linebacker David Long, and cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. Their defense isn’t in horrible shape, but their offense looks like one of the weaker in the league with a backup quarterback throwing to an underwhelming receiving corps with basically all of his capable offensive linemen injured.

Luckily, the Titans are facing the Texans, who have the worst record in the league at 1-12-1, but the Texans have been more competitive than that suggests. If you exclude games started by horrendous backup Kyle Allen, the Texans have just three losses by more than 10 points and four losses by more than one-score this season, so they’ve been competitive most of their games, as long as Allen isn’t the starter. They still rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, but not by a wide margin and they’re only a half-point behind the Titans in that metric.

The Texans are also going in the opposite direction injury wise, getting talented edge defender Jonathan Greenard back from a 9-game absence last week and getting top cornerback Steven Nelson and top wide receiver Brandin Cooks back this week, from absences of 2 games and 4 games respectively. With the Titans missing a significant amount of talent and starting an unproven backup quarterback, the Texans actually have a half point edge over them in my roster rankings.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Texans, as this line has dropped all the way down to three in the wake of all of the Titans’ injuries, most notably Tannehill’s absence. However, we are still getting some line value, as I would consider these two teams about even and the Titans are also in a tough spot, having to play a much tougher game on short rest next week on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate. 

The bad spot the Titans are in may be somewhat offset by the Titans having to play with a backup quarterback, which usually makes a team more focused, but it’s also very possible the Titans overlook their 1-win opponent this week, which could easily result in the Texans doubling that win total. Even if they can’t pull the outright upset, I think there’s enough here for the Texans to be worth betting at this number.

Tennessee Titans 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3)

Both of these teams have impressive records, but both teams have needed to have a lot of success in close games to get to these records, which tends not to be sustainable long-term, as victories by larger margins are more predictive of future success than close victories. The Vikings have gone a ridiculous 10-0 in one-score games, with just a 1-3 record in games decided by more than one score, while the Giants are 8-2-1 in one-score games and don’t have any wins by more than one score, going 0-3 in games decided by more than 8 points. 

As a result, the Vikings have just a +2 point differential and rank just 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-1.13), while the Giants have a -25 point differential and rank 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-4.81). This line seems to take into account that the Vikings are not as good as their record, but I think it overrates the Giants, only favoring the Vikings at home by four points, even though the Vikings have a 3.5-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency. The difference is even bigger in my roster rankings, with the Vikings being relatively healthy and the Giants having significant injury concerns, including the absence of their two best cornerbacks and their top safety, leading to the Vikings having a 7-point edge in my roster rankings. 

Overall, my calculated line favors the Vikings by seven, which might seem high, given how many close games the Vikings play, but, while they don’t have many wins by more than one-score, seven of the Vikings’ eleven wins have actually come by four points or more, while all five of the Giants’ losses have come by more than four, so I feel confident in the Vikings at this number. This isn’t a big play, but Minnesota should be bettable this week.

Minnesota Vikings 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -4

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week from an against the spread perspective. My calculated line is Cincinnati -3, which is right where this line is, and, given that games are decided by three significantly more often than any other number, the most likely outcome of this game is a Cincinnati win by a field goal, which would result in a push. I am taking New England for pick ‘em purposes, but only because the public is heavily on the Bengals and, as a result, the sportsbooks would stand to make a lot of money if the Patriots are able to keep this within three. 

For all the problems the Patriots have on offense (29th in schedule adjusted efficiency), their defense is still one of the best in the league (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency) and, overall, they’re not worse than an average team, so they should be able to keep this game somewhat competitive at home, even if the Bengals are likely to emerge victorious. A push is still probably more likely than anything though and there’s not nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts. As well as Hurts has played, this team is 13-1, ranks 1st in point differential (+143), and 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency (+6.29), and they could not have done that without a strong supporting cast. In fact, in terms of my roster rankings, the Eagles actually have the most non-quarterback talent of any team in the league.

The Eagles’ talented supporting cast is in large part due to the fact that, even with Hurts out, the Eagles are still one of the healthier teams in the league, with 20 of their expected 22 starters on offense and defense playing this week, including talented tight end Dallas Goedert, who is notably making his return from a 5-game absence this week. Given how late in the season it is, that’s remarkably healthy. The Eagles also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Gardner Minshew, who is a better option than several other regular starters around the league. 

Between having a starting caliber backup and a dominant supporting cast, the Eagles should still have more than enough talent to at least compete with the Cowboys in this game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in my roster rankings even with Hurts out, actually ahead of the Cowboys, who rank 7th in my roster rankings, as well as ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.17). The Eagles are also more likely to play harder in this game than the Cowboys, as good teams tend to do when forced to play with a backup quarterback. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, will have another game four days after this one on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate, and they may relax a little bit against a backup quarterback, which they can’t afford to do, given how talented the rest of the Eagles’ roster is. Despite that, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in this game, a pretty high number, given that about 3 out of 10 games are decided by four points or fewer. My calculated line actually has this as a toss up, so I love the value we’re getting with the Eagles, who still have a great chance to win and pull the upset even with Minshew. The Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7)

The Jaguars pulled off a huge comeback upset win over the Cowboys in overtime last week, but that loss might have come with a price, as now the Jaguars have to play on a short week after that overtime game, which has proven to be a close to impossible spot for teams to play well in, with teams going just 2-22 ATS against the spread on short rest after an overtime game. Making matters worse, the Jaguars have to go on the road outside of the division, which is also a tough spot for teams on short rest, unless they’re facing a significantly worse team, which is not the case this week against the Jets. Historically, non-divisional road underdogs cover at a 37.5% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest.

We’re not getting good line value with the Jets as 1.5-point favorites, as that’s right around where I have this line calculated, as the Jets are at home and have been the slightly better team this season, but the Jaguars have been playing significantly better in recent weeks, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence emerging in a big way midway through his second season in the league. However, that calculated line doesn’t take into account the significant disadvantage the Jaguars are at in this game and, even without getting any line value with them, the Jets are still worth a bet purely based on how bad of a spot the Jaguars are in. This isn’t worth a big bet, but I like the Jets this week.

New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Medium