Pick of the Week
ATL 27 (-1.5) ARZ 20
High Confidence Picks
BUF 31 (-7) DEN 20
DET 30 (-2.5) LAC 24
Medium Confidence Picks
CIN 30 HOU 27 (+6.5)
CHI 23 (-3) CAR 17
SEA 31 (-5.5) WAS 23
Low Confidence Picks
BAL 24 (-6.5) CLE 16
DAL 30 (-17.5) NYG 9
TB 20 (-1.5) TEN 17
PIT 17 (-3) GB 13
IND 20 (-1.5) NE 17
NO 20 (-2.5) MIN 16
No Confidence Picks
NYJ 16 (-1) LV 14
SF 27 (-3) JAX 24
Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7)
Typically the rule of thumb with Thursday Night Football is to take the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as it’s a non-divisional game, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless they’re facing a familiar divisional foe or facing an inferior opponent that they are favored over. In total, teams are 47-31 ATS as non-divisional home favorites on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest and that trend is especially strong when the team is favored by a field goal or more, going 36-23 ATS, which applies here, with the Bears favored by a field goal.
It might seem crazy that this 2-7 Bears team which is starting a backup quarterback would be favored by a field goal over anyone, but the Panthers have been that bad and have significant injury issues of their own. Already missing top cornerback Jaycee Horn, talented safety Jeremy Chinn, and top linebacker Shaq Thompson, the Panthers now without top edge defender Brian Burns for the first time this season, which actually leaves them without their expected top-4 edge defenders, with Justin Houston, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Marquis Haynes also out.
The Bears have a significant edge in weighted DVOA (-20.8% vs. -33.6%), first down rate differential (-1.05% vs. -3.06%), yards per play differential (-0.25 vs. -0.99%), and, with both teams’ injury situations factored in, as well as the Bears’ recent addition of Montez Sweat, the Bears have a 4-point edge in my roster rankings. The Bears also have an edge in SIC score (80.6 vs. 77.4), which measures the value of the injured players for both teams. With all that in mind, my calculated line has the Bears favored by 4.5 points, so, when you add in the good spot the Bears are in on a short week, the Bears are worth a small bet this week.
Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 17
Pick against the spread: Chicago -3
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
BUF 31 (+1.5) CIN 27 Upset Pick +110
High Confidence Picks
LV 24 (-1.5) NYG 17
Medium Confidence Picks
LAC 23 NYJ 21 (+3.5)
MIA 33 (+1.5) KC 31 Upset Pick +105
TEN 17 (+3) PIT 16 Upset Pick +130
Low Confidence Picks
PHI 24 DAL 23 (+3)
HOU 24 (-3) TB 19
BAL 27 (-5.5) SEA 20
NE 20 (-2.5) WAS 16
No Confidence Picks
NO 23 (-8.5) CHI 14
CLE 23 (-9.5) ARZ 13
ATL 23 MIN 20 (+3.5)
IND 26 CAR 24 (+2.5)
GB 20 LAR 17 (+3)
Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Typically, the rule of thumb is to bet non-divisional home favorites on Thursday Night Football, as it tends to be tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week, but that trend applies more to big home favorites, as home favorites of 3.5 or more in non-divisional Thursday games are 29-17 ATS all-time, while home favorites of three or less are just 17-14 ATS, which is more applicable here, with the Steelers favored by 2.5.
With that in mind, the Titans should be the right side in this one. The Steelers have a better record at 4-3, while the Titans are at 3-4, but the Titans have played better overall this season. Not only do they have a significant edge in point differential (-8 vs. -34), they also have an even bigger edge in yards per play differential (-0.16 vs. -1.03) and first down rate differential (+0.28% vs. -4.54%), which are more predictive than point differential. My calculated line is even, so the Titans have a good chance to pull the small upset in this game. I would need a full field goal for the Titans to be worth betting against the spread, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes even at +2.5 and the money line is a great value at +130.
Update: This line has moved to 3, so I am going to lock in a bet.
Tennessee Titans 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Upset Pick +130
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
NYJ 20 (-3) NYG 13
High Confidence Picks
PHI 31 (-7) WAS 20
Medium Confidence Picks
MIN 24 (-1) GB 19
MIA 31 (-9.5) NE 17
SEA 24 (-3.5) CLE 17
DAL 23 LAR 20 (+7)
BUF 31 (-8.5) TB 19
Low Confidence Picks
BAL 31 (-9.5) ARZ 17
DET 30 (-7.5) LV 20
LAC 24 CHI 17 (+8.5)
HOU 26 (-3.5) CAR 20
SF 24 (-4.5) CIN 17
IND 24 (+1.5) NO 23 Upset Pick +110
No Confidence Picks
KC 27 DEN 20 (+7.5)
JAX 19 (-1.5) PIT 17
ATL 19 TEN 17 (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to bet on the home team as long as they are significantly better, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week. As a result, non-divisional home favorites of 3+ are 29-16 ATS on Thursdays, as long as both teams are on short rest. The Bills are only a half game better than the Buccaneers in the standings, but that trend applies here, as they have a significantly better point differential (+80 vs. -1) and rank 4th in DVOA, while the Buccaneers rank 20th. We’re not getting significant line value with the Bills as 8.5-point home favorites, as that is right where I have this line calculated, but the Bills are worth betting purely based on that aforementioned trend, with that trend increasing to 17-6 ATS for non-divisional favorites of more than a touchdown. This isn’t a big bet, but I like the Bills a good amount this week.
Buffalo Bills 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
DET 24 (+3) BAL 23 Upset Pick +130
High Confidence Picks
LAR 24 (-3) PIT 17
LV 23 (-2.5) CHI 16
SF 23 MIN 20 (+7)
Medium Confidence Picks
KC 31 (-5.5) LAC 23
SEA 31 (-7.5) ARZ 19
WAS 24 (-2.5) NYG 19
Low Confidence Picks
DEN 26 (+1.5) GB 24 Upset Pick +105
MIA 31 (+2.5) PHI 30 Upset Pick +125
ATL 17 (+2.5) TB 16 Upset Pick +125
No Confidence Picks
BUF 26 (-8.5) NE 17
CLE 23 IND 20 (+3.5)
NO 19 (-1.5) JAX 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3)
This game is tough to make a decision on because there are two key questionable players on both sides, with Jacksonville’s quarterback Trevor Lawrence considered a gametime decision and New Orleans’ stud linebacker Demario Davis not practicing all week. If Lawrence is out and Davis isn’t, the Saints would be an obvious value pick as only 1.5-point home favorites, but it’s unlikely the line would remain there in that case.
My current calculated line, which assumes Lawrence and Davis will play at less than 100%, is right at New Orleans -1.5, so we’re not getting any value with either side as of this writing. The Saints do have the benefit of being at home on a short week in a non-divisional game, but that trend applies more to big home favorites, as home favorites of 3.5 or more in non-divisional Thursday games are 29-16 ATS all-time, but home favorites of three or less are just 17-13 ATS. I am going to go with the Saints for pick ‘em purposes for now just on the basis of that limited trend, but I can’t take them with any confidence and depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.
New Orleans Saints 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
BAL 28 (-4.5) TEN 19
High Confidence Picks
LV 23 (-2.5) NE 17
Medium Confidence Picks
HOU 19 (+1.5) NO 17 Upset Pick +110
LAR 23 (-7) ARZ 13
Low Confidence Picks
KC 28 (-10.5) DEN 16
SF 24 (-9.5) CLE 13
JAX 23 IND 20 (+4.5)
MIA 34 (-14) CAR 17
ATL 24 (-2.5) WAS 20
DAL 30 (-2.5) LAC 26
DET 28 (-3) TB 24
PHI 26 (-6.5) NYJ 17
No Confidence Picks
BUF 30 (-15.5) NYG 13
MIN 30 CHI 27 (+3)
CIN 27 (-2.5) SEA 24
Denver Broncos (1-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Unlike the last few Thursday Night Football games, I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. Big home favorites tend to do well on a short week, as it’s very tough for a vastly inferior team to keep a game close on a short week, but that tends not to be the case in divisional matchups (double digit divisional favorites are just 6-6 ATS on a short week) as two teams being familiar with each other tends to cancel out the effect of the short week. The Broncos haven’t had much success against the Chiefs lately, losing 15 straight matchups against them dating back to 2015, but I’m not sure how much that matters because rosters and coaching staffs change all the time and a lot of those wins have been relatively close, with 9 of those 15 games decided by a margin that would fail to cover this 10.5-point spread, including 4 of the past 5.
The Chiefs have been the significantly better team this season, with a significant advantage in yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.18), first down rate differential (+4.73% vs. -4.66%), and DVOA (6th ranked 25.5% vs. 30th ranked -30.9%), but the Broncos are healthier than they were earlier in the year, with talented safety Justin Simmons and talented middle linebacker Josey Jewell both returning last week. My calculated line still has the Chiefs favored by 12, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, even if they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes.
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Denver Broncos 16
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10.5
Confidence: Low
Football Fan Spot 