49ers

Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.35% for their opponents, a differential of -0.22%. Meanwhile, the Redskins have played significantly better than their record this season, moving the chains at a 72.78% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of -0.68% that ranks 15th in the NFL.

I’m not saying that the 49ers are the 19th best team in the NFL or Washington is 15th, or even that Washington is better than San Francisco at all, but the advanced metrics suggest this line is way too high. Despite that, the public is all over San Francisco and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense (and it does here) because the odds makers always make money in the long run. This line is way too high normally, but the 49ers have a very important game with the Seahawks in 4 days after this season, which could easily provide a significant distraction for them. Since 2008, favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football. This game will be a lot closer than 9.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +9

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

The 49ers won last week in emotional fashion in New Orleans. You’d think that would put them in a bad spot for this week, but it historically hasn’t, as teams are 70-44 ATS off of an overtime win as underdogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 48-28 ATS when that overtime win was on the road. On top of that, the 49ers are in a good spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. Going off of that, road favorites are 49-33 ATS off of a road win since 2008.

The Giants, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as they have a tough game at home next week against the Cowboys. Teams are 14-29 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and the early line is currently 4. The Giants haven’t been great at home in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era anyway. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.81 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home.

The 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast here, which is usually a bad spot for teams, but they are 5-0 ATS in this spot since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011. That’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. The 49ers also have had a lot of success in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, going 25-16 ATS in that spot since 2011, including 11-5 ATS on the road. They should be the right side here as 4 point favorites.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a 72.92% rate, as opposed to 74.01% for their opponents, a differential of -1.09%. Meanwhile, the Saints move them at an 81.61% rate (best in the NFL), as opposed to 76.64% for their opponents, a differential of 4.97%. Why are they 4-4 when they’ve played that well? Well, they have a -6 turnover margin and a -2 return touchdown margin fueled by a 35.29% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They are legitimately a few plays away from being 7-1.

They’ve also played that well despite playing 5 of 8 on the road, where they are historically significantly worse than at home. Now they have 3 straight games at home and are poised to go on a run, starting with this game. Teams are 61-45 ATS since 1989 as home favorites before being home favorites twice more in a row. At the same time, they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game. They are an auto-bet at home and they’re still significantly undervalued to boot. This is my Pick of the Week.

New Orleans Saints 34 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3)

The Rams were blown out last week in Kansas City as 7 point underdogs, but I have reasons to believe that they won’t get blown out here as 10 point underdogs in San Francisco. One, they are in their second straight road game, rather than last week when they were in their first road game. Teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

Two, while the Rams were facing a Chiefs team that was in a great spot last week (with only a game against the Jets on deck), the Rams are getting the 49ers before they play the Saints in New Orleans next week. They will almost definitely be underdogs next week and double digit favorites are 51-69 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. Three, I think the Rams were facing a significantly better team last week when they faced the Chiefs than they are now facing the 49ers.

The 49ers haven’t been nearly as good this season as they’ve been in previous seasons under Jim Harbaugh, as a result of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey being out with injury and suspension. They rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 74.04% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their opponents, a differential of -1.82%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains. This is actually going to be a much easier game for the Rams than last week’s, even before you take into account that the 49ers are in a bad spot and that the Rams are in their 2nd straight road game.

The Rams, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 73.33% rate, as opposed to 77.03% for their opponents, a differential of -3.70%. The 49ers are getting healthier, with Anthony Davis returning from extended absence and Patrick Willis coming back from missing the 49ers’ last game, while the Rams are now without top offensive lineman Jake Long and top wide receiver Brian Quick, but this line should still be no higher than a touchdown when you take everything into account, including the situational trends. The 49ers usually do well as big favorites, going 25-15 ATS in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, but they are just 2-3 ATS in that spot this season and I think this is going to be another ATS loss for them.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 16

Pick against spread: St. Louis +10

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Broncos, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night games, including 17-31 ATS as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. On the other hand, Peyton Manning is very good in night games, going 31-15 ATS in such games since 2003. The 49ers are also missing Mike Iupati and Patrick Willis, which will really hurt a team that’s already been missing guys like Anthony Davis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey all season. I’m going with the 49ers just to fade the public, who is on Denver, but I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 26 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential at -2.18%. They move the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 76.99% for their opponents. However, the 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS this season despite the fact that they’ve been favored by 3 or more in all 5 games, the situation they traditionally dominate in.

They haven’t been the same team this season thanks to the loss of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Glenn Dorsey, and Anthony Davis to injury. Vernon Davis is expected back for this one, but they’ve still struggled by their standards this season and I don’t know if that’s going to fix everything, especially since their biggest problems are defensively. They are moving the chains at 75.34% rate, as opposed to 74.82% for their opponents, a differential of 0.52% that ranks only 16th in the NFL. I’m still going to take the 49ers, especially since home divisional underdogs are 30-56 ATS in night games since 1989, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s good reasons to take each side. On one hand, the 49ers usually cover as favorites of 3 or more as they’ve always beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-14 ATS in that situation since Harbaugh took over in 2011. However, I’m not sure the Chiefs are a bad team at all, while the 49ers haven’t looked right this season because of all the players they are missing to injuries and suspension. We might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Chiefs as 6 point underdogs.

The Chiefs looked fantastic last week in a 41-14 home win over the New England Patriots. They could easily carry that momentum into this week considering how well teams do off of blowout wins on Monday Night Football. Teams are 32-14 ATS since 2002 off of a 21+ point win on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the 49ers out of principle because the Chiefs are a publicly backed underdog, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, 49ers, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and 9-3 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.83 points per game. They’re also 24-14 ATS as 3+ point favorites over that time period. However, the 49ers fell flat as big favorites two weeks ago at home over the Bears and last week they fell flat in Arizona as big favorites off of a loss.

The 49ers are just missing so much that they’re a shell of their former selves. Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, Tramaine Brock and Glenn Dorsey are out on the defensive side of the ball and, as a result, this once dominant defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate, easily worst in the NFL. The offense has been good despite missing right tackle Anthony Davis, as they’ve moved the chains at a 78.31% rate, 4th in the NFL, but they’re still not playing well as a team, ranking 24th in differential. I’m not sure if I want to bet them heavily in this situation as I normally would as a result. The Eagles are also in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites as teams are 66-48 ATS in that spot since 2010.

I’m still taking the 49ers here and predicting them to bounce back for the 2nd straight week and cover for the 3rd straight week because of those aforementioned team specific trends. The Eagles are missing significant guys too with right tackle Lane Johnson and left guard Evan Mathis out with suspension and injury respectively and now center Jason Kelce also going down. It’s also telling that the Eagles are 5.5 point underdogs here (up from 4.5 point underdogs to start the week) even with the public all over the Eagles. This seems like a trap bet as the Eagles aren’t quite as good as their record. They’re the first 3-0 team in NFL history to overcome a double digit deficit in each of their first 3 games and their rate of moving the chains differential is just 16th at 0.68% (73.83% for their offense, 73.15% for their opponents). I’m going to go the other way of the trap bet and take the 49ers, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

With the exception of last week’s epic debacle against the Bears, the 49ers generally are good at beating up on weaker opponents. They are 24-13 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games.

They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. They beat up on a terrible Dallas team week 1 in Dallas by a score of 28-13, before last week’s game, a 28-20 home loss as 7 point favorites, but I think last week is probably the fluke rather than the new normal for this team. They’re highly unlikely to lose the turnover battle by 4 again considering the average team that puts up a -4 turnover differential in a week has an average turnover margin of about +0.1 the following week since 2008 and are 75-52 ATS in that time period.

The Cardinals are 2-0, but they fit that definition of a bad team, hence why the 49ers are favorite by a field goal here on the road. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers week 1 at home and then last week looked underwhelming in a victory over the lowly Giants. Despite their record, it’s possible that no team has lost more from last season to this season than the Cardinals.

On the offensive side of the ball, Carson Palmer is out indefinitely leaving veteran journeyman Drew Stanton to make his 6th career start this week. He completed 14 of 29 for 169 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Giants last week, and the 49ers have a significantly better defense than the Giants so the career 63.5 QB rating quarterback could really struggle. They’ve added Jared Veldheer and given Andre Ellington a bigger role on offense, but the latter is dealing with a bad foot that has him less than 100%.

Defensively is where they’ve lost the most. John Abraham, Darnell Dockett, and Daryl Washington are all out for the season, the first two with injury and the latter with suspension. Karlos Dansby is also gone and Tyrann Mathieu is still not close to 100% after playing just 5 snaps in his return from a torn ACL last week. They’ve added first round pick Deone Buchanan and free agent flier Antonio Cromartie, but this stop unit is nowhere near as talented on paper as they were last season.

I like the 49ers’ chances of proving last week was a fluke and getting a big win here in Arizona by more than a field goal. Not only was last week likely a fluke, but the 49ers almost always bounce back in a big way in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-3-1 ATS following a loss. Straight up, they are 9-2 ATS and outscore opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game. They should be the right side here once again as long as the line stays at a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Their loss to the Bills last week only solidifies my opinion that they’re going to struggle this year.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. Last week, they beat up on a terrible Dallas team, winning 28-13. They’re also in a good situation here as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Arizona next week). Teams are 52-24 ATS in that situation since 2008. They should blow out the Bears here in the Levi Stadium opener on Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: High

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