Last week: 4 (-1)
Record: 6-2
On bye.
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49ers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)
Team X is one of these teams. Team X has an explosive offense led by a dual threat quarterback drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft that moves the chains at an 81% rate and scores 25.5 points per game. They have a shutdown defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate and allows opponents to score 13.3 points per game, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their secondary doesn’t have a lot of recognizable names, but they are playing well as a unit and they are supported by a fantastic front 7, led by a big name, recognizable middle linebacker. Their rate of moving the chains differential is best in the NFL and their point differential of +98 is the 3rd best in the NFL and the best in the NFC. In terms of DVOA, they are 3rd in the NFL.
You might think Team X is the 49ers and the 49ers are certainly a very good football team, but that aforementioned Team X is actually the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are scoring a few more points per game, scoring 27.3 points per game, but they allow significantly more, allowing 18.1 points per game. Their point differential of +73 certainly is very good, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s, coming in 5th. In DVOA, they come in 6th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That differential is a solid 9th in the NFL, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s.
If you use rate of moving the chains to calculate a line, it would say that Carolina should be favored by 3 points. I don’t agree with that and you obviously can’t follow that blindly. The 49ers have been playing much better football over the past 4 games as compared to their first 3 games and they were so good in 2011 and 2012 that you can safely throw out the first 3 games of the season as a fluke. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL. But the Panthers are too. At the very least, we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers at +6.5. Remember, the Panthers are ranked higher than the 49ers by Football Outsiders in DVOA. In spite of this, most of the action is on San Francisco and the line is actually moving down. That suggests it’s a trap line and/or the sharps are on Carolina.
The 49ers could also be caught looking forward to the Saints next week. Teams are 61-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Panthers face the Patriots next week back in Carolina, but that’s a different story. For one, New England is a non-conference opponent so it won’t be as big of a distraction. They could also be favorites, especially if they have a good showing here this week. I think the Panthers will play this one close and possibly even win.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Carolina Panthers 23
Pick against spread: Carolina +6.5
Confidence: High
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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#4)
Last week: 5 (+1)
Record: 6-2
Remember when the Packers and 49ers were both 1-2? They’ve won a combined 9 straight games and the 4 losses between them are all against top-10 teams in these Power Rankings. Colin Kaepernick has improved drastically recently and the 49ers are now moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a differential that is 8th best in the NFL and sharply climbing. The biggest thing working against them is that Super Bowl runner ups almost never make the Super Bowl the following year and even less frequently win it all, but they certainly have the talent to buck the trend if everything falls right.
Week 8 Studs
QB Colin Kaepernick
LT Joe Staley
Week 8 Duds
LG Mike Iupati
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars at London: Week 8 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) at London
The Jaguars suck. There’s really no other way to put it. I don’t doubt they’ll pull an upset and win a game sometime this season because, as the 2007 Dolphins and the 2011 Colts will tell you, it’s really hard for an NFL team to lose 16 consecutive games. However, they’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams my these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). That’s relevant here because the line is at 16.5 and the 49ers are clearly not a bottom-5 team.
It’s possible the 49ers could sleepwalk through the game like the Broncos did and “only” win by like 16, but there are 3 differences. One is that it took a pick six to even get it to that, as it would have been a 22 point margin or worse if not for that. The 49ers could, of course, also throw a pick six. That isn’t impossible, but it’s far more likely that the Jaguars throw a pick six and even more likely than no one throws a pick six.
The second difference is that the Broncos were distracted with Peyton Manning’s upcoming trip to Indianapolis on the schedule. The 49ers have absolutely no distractions here, with a bye up next. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. I know this game doesn’t technically fit because it’s a neutral site game in London, but the 49ers are clearly the type of team that would be focused going into a bye and dominate a significantly inferior team and that’s what the trend is all about.
The third difference is actually that this game is in London. Imagine this for a second, you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re 0-7, you have to go across the ocean to play a 49er team that is 5-2 and made the Super Bowl last season. You’re losing a home game because of this game and chances are the London crowd is going to prefer the reigning NFC Champs over some shitty team from a city they’ve never heard of. There’s a good chance they just mail this one in. In fact, double digit underdogs are 0-3 ATS in London all-time. That’s not a huge sample size, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense. The 49ers could also be much more prepared for a game like this because they’re a superior veteran team.
The 49ers are playing excellent football right now. They’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 20.3 points per game and they should beat the Jaguars by at least 17. They don’t have Aldon Smith, but they haven’t really needed him. Their defense has shown their tremendous depth and talent level without him and 3rd round rookie Corey Lemonier has played well in his absence. The upgrade of Tramaine Brock over Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary has also helped tremendously. And last week, Colin Kaepernick played arguably his best game since week 1 against a tough Tennessee defense and finally looked like the quarterback he was last season. This is a scary team and should be able to establish the run early and have their way with the significantly inferior and probably completely demoralized Jaguars. They’re also my survivor pick.
San Francisco 49ers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: San Francisco -16.5
Confidence: Medium
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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#5)
Last week: 5 (+0)
Record: 5-2
Colin Kaepernick had probably his best game since week 1 this week, completing 13 of 21 for 199 yards, while rushing for 68 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, against a Tennessee defense that has been solid all season. It’s a positive sign going forward for the 49ers, who have won 4 straight, thanks largely to a re-emphasis on the run game. Now they go to London to play the Jaguars before a bye. It’s hard to believe there was a time people were worried about them because they lost 2 of 3 games to top-10 caliber teams.
Week 7 Studs
WR Anquan Boldin
LG Mike Iupati
CB Tramaine Brock
Week 7 Duds
RG Alex Boone
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San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
I have legitimate concerns about the 49ers’ offense. Their defense is more than fine once again, as opponents move the chains at a 70% rate. Even without Aldon Smith, they have plenty of talent defensively. However, offensively it’s clear that Colin Kaepernick is not the same as he was last season, at least thus far. As a result, the offense is moving the chains at just a 70% rate as well.
Kaepernick is completing just 55.9% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s barely matched that in his other 5 games, catching 16 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.
The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 172 yards and no scores on 31 carries in 6 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first.
The Titans, meanwhile, remain a solid team even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Obviously he’s the limiting factor, but they have a great defense that only allows opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate, while their offense moves the chains at a 70% rate. They were the 2nd team over the past 2 seasons to cover in Seattle last week. The 49ers are getting better in terms of rate of moving the chains differential every week, after their rough start, so I’m hesitant to bet against them, but these two teams are very even in that aspect, so I immediately want to take the 4 point home underdog. This should be a very close game and even if the 49ers win, it could easily be by a field goal or less.
Update: Jake Locker is going to surprisingly start despite injury. I don’t know how this changing things. I’m going to continue staying away.
San Francisco 49ers 13 Tennessee Titans 12
Pick against spread: Tennessee +4
Confidence: None
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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#5)
Last week: 5 (+0)
Record: 4-2
Looking at the 49ers’ schedule, it’s easy to see how they could start ripping off wins. They face Tennessee and Jacksonville before a bye and then off of the bye they host the Panthers. They do play Seattle later in the season, but they play in San Francisco. A trip to New Orleans could be the only game in which they are underdogs remaining on their schedule. I had them winning 12 games before the season started, but starting 0-2 with losses to Green Bay and Seattle. They didn’t lose to Green Bay, but they lost to another solid team week 3, the Colts, to start 1-2. That’s why I didn’t panic. They’re definitely still in the mix.
Week 6 Studs
LT Joe Staley
RT Anthony Davis
TE Vernon Davis
ROLB Corey Lemonier
CB Carlos Rogers
FS Eric Reid
Week 6 Studs
LG Mike Iupati
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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
Remember when everyone freaked out just because the 49ers lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, everything is still not as perfect as it seemed coming into the season. The 49ers’ 34-3 win masked the fact that Colin Kaepernick completed just 6 passes all game. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every time going forward.
Kaepernick is completing just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season and the 49ers are moving the chains on just 69% of opportunities as a result. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s combined for less than that in his other 4 games, catching 13 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.
The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 154 yards and no scores on 27 carries in 5 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first. Kaepernick gets a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, whose solid defense got even tougher last week when Daryl Washington returned from suspension.
The defense is, of course, very tough for the 49ers as well and things will only get better this week with Patrick Willis returning from injury. The 49ers have done a terrific job holding opponents to 14 points in 2 weeks without arguably their two best defenders, Willis and Aldon Smith. That speaks to their depth. While Smith is still out indefinitely, they should continue frustrating opponent’s defensively going forward.
Given that, I want to take the points and expect a defensive battle, but I’m going with the 49ers for a 3rd straight blowout victory. The Cardinals could be distracted with a Thursday Night Game against the Seahawks and not be as focused as they have to be to hang with a tough 49er team. The 49ers, meanwhile, have absolutely no distractions here with a trip to Tennessee and Jacksonville on deck. The 49ers should rip through these next 3 games going into their bye, starting this week. Also, teams are 25-37 ATS since 1989 as double digit dogs off of a win as home dogs. I’m not confident though.
San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 9
Pick against spread: San Francisco 49ers -11
Confidence: None
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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#5)
Last week: 5 (+0)
Record 3-2
Remember when everyone freaked out just because they lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, there are still concerns about Colin Kaepernick, who completed just 6 passes in the 49ers’ 34-3 win over the Texans last week. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every week. Kaepernick has clearly not been the same quarterback this year without Michael Crabtree and with defenses taking away his ability to run the football effectively.
Week 5 Studs
LT Joe Staley
CB Tarell Brown
CB Tramaine Brock
SS Donte Shitner
Week 5 Duds
None
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Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team.
The 49ers, meanwhile, started out slow, but that was probably a fluke. There is no shame in getting blown out in Seattle and the Indianapolis game could have easily been a fluke. They looked as good as I knew they were against the Rams and they should continue playing that well going forward. Things will only get better as they are expected to get Patrick Willis back from injury this week. They certainly have the talent to blow out Houston here.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Houston Texans 13
Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5
Confidence: Low
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