49ers

San Francisco 49ers: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, 49ers

It’s a shame Justin Smith had to get hurt. I was really interested to see just how much of a quarterback league this really is. We know it’s a quarterback league. Of the last 21 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, 20 made a Pro-Bowl first. As meaningless as the Pro-Bowl is and as bad a job as the fans do in voting in the correct players, they generally do a good job picking the correct quarterbacks as the traditional, easily available stats do a very good job of evaluating them (by that rule the only true Super Bowl contenders this year are Denver, New England, Atlanta, Washington, Houston, Green Bay, and Cincinnati.)

However, this team is one of the most complete in a long while and has some of the most non-quarterback talent. Colin Kaepernick has never made a Pro-Bowl; in fact, he has just 7 starts under his belt, but he’s played well and he gives them a better chance to win the Super Bowl than game manager Alex Smith. With Justin Smith healthy, I could see no reason not to make them the Super Bowl favorites and Kaepernick a strong candidate to be an exception to that rule. They have a ridiculous 12 players (none of whom are quarterbacks), who I thought had borderline Pro-Bowl seasons: (in no order) Frank Gore, Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, Alex Boone, Michael Crabtree, Jonathan Goodwin, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, Ahmad Brooks (none of them were Pro-Bowler Donte Whitner).

However, Smith’s injury really hurts them. On a loaded defense, he’s the most irreplaceable player. In the first 6 quarters they were without him after he got hurt, they were outscored 80-23. They settled down somewhat against lowly Arizona, beating them 27-13, but still allowed them to pass for a touchdown for just the 3rd time since Kevin Kolb got hurt week 5.

He frequently takes on double teams and is the guy they center their defensive scheme around. He allows Aldon Smith to have one on ones, where he’s almost impossible to block (Smith not so surprisingly saw very little production in the final 10 quarters of the season without Justin in front of him). He’ll play this postseason, but whether or not he can be effective is questionable at best.

For that reason, I knocked them below the 3 teams above them in these Power Rankings. For the first time I can remember, we have significantly more quarterbacks in the playoffs who have never started a playoff game (6) than have ever won a Super Bowl (3). For that reason, the 3 who have (Rodgers, Brady, and Manning) have a tremendous advantage over the rest of the field and I think they are the three favorites right now. The 49ers would have not just been in that group but probably atop that group had Smith been 100%, but I don’t trust Kaepernick to win against any of the aforementioned quarterbacks without his full 100% supporting cast.

Projected fate: Lose to Green Bay in divisional round

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1)

It’s usually a smart thing to take well coached teams off a loss. They’re generally extra focused in a bounce back game the following week. Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 17-13 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (27-24 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet like the 5 I just mentioned, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a very impressive, albeit limited, resume off a loss or tie, going 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU. That one ATS loss was only because he declined a safety late against Seattle and it could have been a push depending on the line you got (it opened at -7, but went towards -9 before the game and the 49ers won by 7). Not only is he 7-0 in those games, but he’s doing it in impressive fashion, winning by an average of 17.8 points per game.

That being said, these 16.5 points are begging me to take them. This line is ridiculous. It’s the biggest one of the season, even bigger than Denver/Kansas City this week. I know the 49ers are very good and the Cardinals are bad, but it’s not like they’re the best team in the league and the worst team in the league. The Cardinals have lost just 2 games by more than 17 points this season. The biggest line anyone has covered this season is -13 (Houston/Tennessee), as 13+ favorites are 1-5 ATS this season.

Using the net points per drive method of computing line value, we can see the line value. The 49ers rank 5th at 0.70, while the Cardinals rank 25th at -0.34. If you take the difference, multiply it by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that San Francisco should be -14 here instead of -16.5. That might not seem like a ton, but it’s significant and it makes sense. For some reason, this line has shifted 1.5 points in San Francisco’s favor in the last week as it was -15 last week. All the 49ers have done in the last week is get blown out.

That calculated real line also doesn’t take into account these two teams’ injury situations. Justin Smith is out for the 49ers and in the 6 quarters he’s been out for, they’ve allowed 76 points. You can’t blame that all on Smith’s absence, but, on a defense full of talented players, he was their one irreplaceable player. He is constantly double teamed and frees up Aldon Smith (who has not so coincidentally seen a serious lack of production in the 6 quarters without Justin). Of all the elite pass rushers in the NFL, no one sees double teams less frequently than Aldon Smith, part of the reason why I feel he does not deserve defensive player of the year (which I’ll get into after this week).

Arizona, meanwhile, also has a stud 5-technique, Calais Campbell. He’s returned from injury and their defense has been playing better since, particularly in their last 2 games (he was limited in his first game back). In those 2 games, they’ve allowed a combined 24 points (14 of the Bears’ points were off returns and should not count against the defense). The quarterback situation in Arizona makes them a risk, but we’re getting so many points here that I’m not afraid at all to take the Cardinals, who are 3-0 ATS in the last 2 years as 12+ favorites (including 2 straight up wins).

Public lean: Arizona (50% range)

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +16.5 (-110) 4 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 1 (-5)

Record: 10-4-1

Net points per drive: 0.70 (5th)

DVOA: 30.8% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 26.8 (5th)

Studs

LG Mike Iupati: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 2 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

RT Anthony Davis: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB NaVorro Bowman: 13 solo tackles, 3 assists, 6 stops, allowed 2 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

Duds

WR Mario Manningham: Caught 1 pass for 0 yards on 4 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 4 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

SS Donte Whitner: Allowed 4 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 46-20 ATS since 2005, including 16-8 ATS as home dogs. They’ve already knocked off the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots as home dogs this season, en route to a 7-0 SU and ATS home record. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS on the road since 2005.

On average, they outscore opponents at home by an average of 6.9 points per game. This is against an average line of -2.6, which is right around the standard adjustment for home field advantage. As a result, they outscore opponents against the spread by an average of 4.3 points per game. For this reason, I don’t feel that using 2.5 as a home field adjustment for them is appropriate. I feel that using 6.9 or something around there is a more appropriate adjustment, possibly even more based on how well they’ve done this year (outscoring opponents against the spread by 16.9 points per game).

We’re getting line value even using the standard 2.5 point adjustment. The Seahawks rank 3rd in net points per drive at 0.77, right behind the 49ers, who are 2nd at 0.90. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, we get that Seattle should be favored by 1 point. If we use a more appropriate number for home field, no matter what it is, we’re getting significant line value. Using 6, the line should be Seattle -4.5 and using 6.9, the line should be Seattle -5.5. And that’s not even taking into account that the Seahawks actually rank better in DVOA and weighted DVOA, ranking 2nd in both, while the 49ers rank 4th.

Besides, the 49ers haven’t won more than 2 games in a row all season. They started the season with wins against the Packers and Lions and were anointed the NFL’s best and then they lost in Minnesota. They followed up with blowout wins against the Jets and Bills and then people were back on their bandwagon, before they then got blown out by the Giants at home. They followed that up with divisional wins against the Seahawks and Cardinals before tying the Rams at home. After that, they blew out the Bears and Saints in consecutive weeks, before losing to those same Rams again. Now they’re on a two game winning streak against the Dolphins and Patriots and have once again been anointed the NFL’s top team. I don’t know if they’ll be able to handle that.

This is a much bigger game for the Seahawks. The 49ers just need one more win to win the division and can get the job done next week against Cardinals. Obviously, they still want to win out and get the first round bye, but they can relax a little bit and they might be without one of their top defensive players, Justin Smith. They’ve already gotten their huge win. Now the Seahawks are looking to do the same. It’s kind of like when the 49ers knocked off the Patriots last week after the Patriots had just got a huge win against the Texans. Now it’s the Seahawks’ turn and I think they’ll get the job done, especially at home in a nationally televised game.

It’s a significant play even though the Seahawks are coming off two straight blowout wins and teams are 4-10 ATS since 1989 off of back-to-back wins by 31 or more and 27-42 ATS off of back-to-back wins by 24 or more. The 49ers fell flat in this spot against the Giants earlier this year, but it’s a different dynamic here for the Seahawks as dogs and I’m not going against them at home.

Rather than putting 1 unit on the money line and 3 on the spread, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 422 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 422 teams, only 8 of those teams lost by exactly 1 point, about 1.9%. I still say that was the smart move after some thought and I’m going to do that again here. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents on the dollar for something that will hurt me about 2% of the time.

Public lean: Seattle (50% range)

Sharps lean: SF 16 SEA 15

Final thoughts: Justin Smith is out and the line moved to Seattle -1. I really like Seattle’s chances of winning straight up at home, especially with Smith out, so I’ll add one unit on the spread at -1 (-110) to go with 4 units on the money line at +105. The Patriots’ offensive explosion against the 49ers last week came when Smith left the game. Aldon Smith puts up the numbers, but Justin is their most irreplaceable defensive player.

Seattle Seahawks 17 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Seattle -1 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 10-3-1

Net points per drive: 0.90 (2nd)

DVOA: 34.8% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 35.1% (4th)

The 49ers won last week and earned this spot, at least until they lose in Seattle this week. Then would Seattle be #1 even though you can’t trust them to win a single road playoff game, let alone 3 (4 if you include the neutral site Super Bowl)? Would it be the Patriots again, even though they just lost to the 49ers? Or would the 49ers stay put even though they’d have 4 losses and a tie? Or would I have to put the Packers here just because, even though I haven’t been impressed by them, I feel like they’re being given just enough doubt to go on a huge run once they’re healthy? All I can say is, it’s going to be a fun finish.

Studs

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 7 passes for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

MLB NaVorro Bowman: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 54 pass rush snaps, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Andy Lee: 5 punts for 283 yards, 3 inside 20, 5 returns for 13 yards, 54.0 net yards per yards

Duds

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 6 catches for 120 yards on 8 attempts on 63 pass snaps, 6 solo tackles

RE Justin Smith: Did not record a pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum of a big MNF win into the next week. Teams are 28-11 ATS off a MNF win of 21+ since 2002.

Besides, all the line movement did was move the line to where it should be. These are the top 2 teams in the NFL, in my opinion, but everything suggests that the Patriots, right now, are the league’s best team. They are +198 in points differential. The 49ers are next closest at +132. The Patriots rank 1st in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA and all 3 by a fairly good margin.

The Patriots are at 1.17 in net points per drive, while the 49ers, who are 2nd, are at 0.95. If you take the difference between those, multiply by 11 (the amount of average drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field (I’ve started using 2.5 instead of 3 because home field advantage has been slightly less significant over the past 5-10 years), you get that New England should be 5 point favorites, which is right where this line is.

DVOA supports this at least and may even suggest this line should be higher. While the Patriots are clear #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA, the 49ers are 4th in both. There’s nothing wrong with this line movement, especially considering how good teams are off a MNF blowout. It’s also good that the Patriots still aren’t a huge public lean or anything because the 49ers are certainly a respectable team in the public’s eye. I hate picking heavy public leans.

I really don’t want to bet against the Patriots right now anyway. The Patriots are not a smart team to bet against after week 9. In the last 3 seasons between weeks 10 and 17, they are 21-0, outscoring opponents by an average of 20 points per game, with the average final score being 38-18. Even taking the spread into account, they are 14-7 ATS.

Going off of that, Tom Brady is deadly at home in December. The last time he lost a December home game was 2002, his 2nd season in the league and not so coincidentally, the only season in his career as a starter in which he didn’t make the playoffs. That’s his only career December home loss. In fact, in his career, he has a record of 25-2 at home between weeks 13 and 17.

The only two losses were that aforementioned 2002 loss to the Jets and a 2005 loss to the Dolphins, which was actually in January. The fact that it was in January may or may not matter, but the fact remains, when the temperature gets cold, he’s always gotten red hot. If you add in home playoff games, that record grows to 37-6. It’s supposed to snow for this game and the 49ers haven’t played in snow in the Jim Harbaugh era.

They are playing especially well lately, on both sides of the ball, thanks to the addition of Aqib Talib and emergence of Alfonzo Dennard at cornerback. This has allowed Kyle Arrington to move to the slot and Devin McCourty to move to safety, where they’re better fits. They’re allowing just 18.3 points per game since adding Talib. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 57.8% of their passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over those 4 games. They can run the football (7th in the league in rushing yards) and they’re at least decent defensively. They’re so much more complete than they have been in recent years.

The 49ers are in a good spot because they are dogs and the early lines for next week says that they will be favorites in Seattle. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. However, that early line is only -1 and they could easily not be favorites given how Seattle is playing and how the Patriots are playing right now.

If they are dogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 44-69 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road dogs since 2002. They’re not going to overlook the Patriots or anything, but after this game they actually have a game that’s probably more important. They might be a little bit less focused in the week prior for this game than the Patriots, who have nothing to worry about until the playoffs as they finish up with Jacksonville and Miami.

The Patriots will be extra focused and they are in a great spot this week. Favorites are 33-17 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 2002 and the Patriots are projected early to be 14 point favorites in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, teams are 100-56 ATS since 1989 before being double digit favorites in their next two games and they will probably be double digit favorites at home for Miami week 17 as well. It’s a significant play on the Patriots.

Public lean: New England (60% range)

New England Patriots 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New England -5 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 9-3-1

Net points per drive: 0.95 (2nd)

DVOA: 34.8% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 33.9% (4th)

Nothing has changed. I still feel this week’s Patriots/49ers game will be a Super Bowl preview and I think the winner will be the Super Bowl favorite. Right now, the Patriots are the favorites to win the game and to eventually go all the way, but you can’t count this team out, obviously

Studs

RB Frank Gore: Rushed for 63 yards (30 after contact) and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 2 attempts

QB Colin Kaepernick: 18 of 23 for 185 yards, 1 throw away, 98.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 27 drop backs (4 sacks, 7 of 8), rushed for 53 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 9 passes for 93 yards on 10 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 5.6 YAC per catch

CB Chris Culliver: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

MLB Patrick Willis: 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

Duds

RG Alex Boone: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 quarterback hit on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 28 yards on 2 attempts

RT Anthony Davis: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: Did not record a pressure on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (8-3)

The 49ers lost to the Rams last week in St. Louis, which has gotten a lot of Alex Smith supporters saying “I told you so,” questioning Jim Harbaugh’s decision to bench Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick. These people seem to be forgetting that Smith was losing to those same Rams at home when he got hurt and that he also lost to the Vikings. Oh, and if David Akers had hit a makeable field goal or Delanie Walker hadn’t dropped a very catchable touchdown, the 49ers would have won and we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

Kaepernick gives the 49ers the biggest ceiling and the best chance to win the Super Bowl. He allows them to use the entirety of their complex playbook with his running ability and deep play ability and he hasn’t seemed fazed by the mental part of the complex playbook each, which was formerly Smith’s greatest advantage. He also helps open things up on the ground even more for their tough running game, which is already one of the best in the league because of Frank Gore’s talent, their play calling and playbook, and more importantly their offensive line, which might be the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL. According to ProFootballFocus they are by far the best run blocking offensive line in the league. They were never really winning, with a few exceptions, because of Alex Smith.

Harbaugh absolutely made the right decision benching Smith and going back now would be really stupid and create even more unnecessary controversy, potentially a divide in the locker room, and would generally give the impression to his team that he doesn’t have a plan. If Smith struggles, is it back to Kaepernick? A team can’t succeed like that. And that’s why Harbaugh, a very intelligent coach, wasted no time re-affirming Kaepernick’s status as the starter after the loss.

The 49ers’ season has followed a bit of a pattern. They won their first 2 games against incumbent playoff teams and were anointed early favorites at 2-0 with two impressive wins. Then they lost in Minnesota and people started to back off. They followed that up by destroying the Bills and Jets by a combined score of 79-3 over a two week stretch, before getting blown out at home by the Giants. They bounce back from that loss with a home win over the Seahawks and a blowout win in Arizona, which they followed up by tying the Rams at home as huge favorites.

They bounced back from that tie with a blowout win of the Bears and an impressive double digit victory in New Orleans, before last week’s loss. I expect that pattern to continue at least another week, meaning the 49ers will probably blow out the Dolphins here in San Francisco. I say at least another week because the 49ers play the Patriots next week, certainly a winnable game, but also a game they could play very well in and still lose.

Jim Harbaugh always seems to bounce back off a loss very well, as the great coaches do. Bill Belichick is 35-19 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 17-11 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (27-24 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet like the 5 I just mentioned, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a very impressive, albeit limited resume off a loss or tie, going 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU. That one ATS loss was only because he declined a safety late against Seattle and it could have been a push depending on the line you got (it opened at -7, but went towards -9 before the game and the 49ers won by 7).

Not only is he 7-0 in those games, but he’s doing it in impressive fashion, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game. The 49ers have also only allowed a combined 46 points in the 7 games off those 7 non-wins (losses, ties). That’s an average of 6.6 points per game and 22 of those 46 points were scored by the Packers, who are tough to keep off the scoreboard in any situation. If we exclude that game, the 49ers have allowed 4.0 points per game in the other 6 games, two shut outs, 3 points, 6 points, 7 points, and an 8 point “outburst” by the Bengals way back in week 3 of last season.

The Dolphins have the league’s 6th worst scoring offense at 18.9 points per game and now have to travel across the country to face the 49ers off a loss. They might not score all game. I’m not kidding. This is a big line, but I think the Dolphins are unlikely to get out of single digits. The 49ers really only need to get 20 at most to cover I think.

We’re also getting line value with the 49ers here. They rank 2nd in the league in net points per drive at 0.92, while the Dolphins rank 18th at -0.1. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 3 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of San Francisco -14. That checks out with DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule, as San Francisco ranks 3rd and 4th in regular and weighted DVOA respectively, while Miami ranks 21st in both.

The trends do paint a mixed picture, aside from the Jim Harbaugh off a loss trend. Home favorites tend to struggle off an overtime loss on the road since 2002, going 10-24 ATS. However, things are a little bit better when the overtime loss was as road favorites. Teams in that situation are 4-7 ATS since 2002, 10-16 ATS if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, which isn’t awful. This is because teams tend to bounce back well off a loss as road favorites like that. Going off that, teams are 13-7 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as touchdown plus divisional road favorites since 1989.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs, and 34-14 ATS when all 3 games (current game, next game,and opponent’s next game) will be non-divisional. The 49ers will be dogs in New England next week, while the Dolphins host the lowly Jaguars, a game they’ll be favored in. And all 3 of those games are non-divisional.

However, the Dolphins are coming off a loss to the Patriots, a situation they are 3-8 ATS in since 2002. That makes sense. The Patriots have been the toast of the AFC East over the past decade and arguably the Dolphins’ biggest rival. Last week, they put everything into that game and came up just short, losing by a touchdown. That was their Super Bowl. They’re big dogs here, but they could easily be flat. Even if they’re not, they’re going to have a tough, tough time scoring here if history is any indication, so as big of favorites as the 49ers are, I think they’re the right side. I hate laying this many points though, so it’s not a huge play.

Public lean: San Francisco (60% range)

Sharps lean: SF 8 MIA 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting that the sharps rarely back a double digit favorite, so it’s good to see they do here, even if it’s only a small lean.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Miami Dolphins 6

Pick against spread: San Francisco -10 (-110) 2 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 8-3-1

Net points per drive: 0.92 (2nd)

DVOA: 35.1% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 32.2% (4th)

Studs

QB Colin Kaepernick: 21 of 32 for 208 yards, 4 throw aways, 3 drops, 105.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (3 sacks, 3 scrambles, 2 of 6, 2 throw aways), rushed for 69 yards (13 after contact) on 9 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble

LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 3 attempts

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 7 passes for 101 yards on 10 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 assist, 2 stops

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 4 catches for 21 yards on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

RB Frank Gore: Rushed for 58 yards (33 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 2 broken tackles, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass block snaps

LG Mike Iupati: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 37 yards on 6 attempts

TE Delanie Walker: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

Colin Kaepernick is now officially quarterback of the 49ers and it’s definitely the right move. I don’t think the 49ers ever really scared anyone with Alex Smith under center. He wasn’t why they were winning. Kaepernick gives this team such a higher upside. He allows them to use the whole playbook with his running ability and big arm and he hasn’t seemed fazed by the mental part of running such a complex offense, which is key. He also makes their running game even better because defenses have to respect the deep ball and Kaepernick’s own running ability.

They’ve looked so much better since he’s been the starter, blowing out Chicago and then beating the Saints in New Orleans, a huge win in a tough place to play against a team that actually knew he was coming for the first time in his career. Neither St. Louis nor Chicago really game planned for him, most likely. Smith got hurt against St. Louis and there was no way for them to know that Kaepernick would be coming into the game, while Chicago probably thought, along with the rest of us, that Smith would start against them until he was surprisingly ruled out Monday morning for a Monday Night Football game.

This week, Kaepernick takes the show to St. Louis. St. Louis is coming off a win as divisional road dogs and they are now home dogs, a situation teams are 28-14 ATS in since 1989. However, San Francisco is road favorites after winning as road favorites, a situation teams are 50-30 ATS in since 2002. We’re also getting significant line value with the 49ers, who have the momentum as well, since switching to the superior quarterback.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, this line should actually be San Francisco -12.5. San Francisco ranks 2nd in net points per drive, 1st in DVOA, and 2nd in weighted DVOA and with Kaepernick under center, they’re easily one of the top-2 teams in the NFL. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 24th in net points per drive, 21st in DVOA and 20th in weighted DVOA.

That 12.5 number was calculated by taking the difference between San Francisco’s net points per drive and St. Louis’ net points per drive, multiplying by 11 (the amount of drives per game on average) and adding 3 to St. Louis’ side for home field advantage. Like with New England and Houston, it’s not a big play because the public loves the favorite here and the public always loses money in the long run, but San Francisco should be the right side here.

Public lean: San Francisco (80% range)

Sharps lean: SF 22 STL 8

Final update: Very interestingly, the sharps all really like San Francisco, Houston, and New England as touchdown favorites inside the division. Those might be the top-3 teams in the NFL, so it makes sense and the fact that the sharps love them kind of negates the heavy public leans. I don’t want to go higher than 3 on any of them because, on principle, I rarely make big plays on lines higher than a touchdown (what happened between San Francisco and Seattle earlier this year is a perfect example of why), but I can up this one and the Houston one to 2 units. New England is already there.

San Francisco 49ers 27 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7.5 (-110) 2 units

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