San Francisco 49ers 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Introduction

Last off-season, I predicted a down season for the 49ers for a variety of reasons. Teams that have huge jumps in win totals usually regress about half the total the following season (for the 49ers, that would have been 3.5, bringing them down to 9 or 10 wins). Teams that win 13 games like the 49ers did in 2011 on average actually only win around 9.5 games the following season anyway. The 49ers also won those 13 games thanks to virtually no injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball, an unsustainably good turnover margin of +28, and about 8 or 9 guys on the defensive side of the ball having career best seasons. My theory was that a significantly worse turnover margin, more injuries, and about half of those guys on defense having noticeably worse seasons would bring down the 49ers’ win total.

And I wasn’t completely wrong. The 49ers went from +28 to +9 in turnover margin. Carlos Rogers, Ray McDonald, Justin Smith, and Donte Whitner all had noticeably worse seasons on the defensive side of the ball, as the 49ers gave up roughly 3 points more per game (not a huge difference, but significant). They didn’t have many injuries once again as they somehow managed to go from 8^th in adjusted games lost to 1^st in adjusted games lost. An injury to Justin Smith late in the season did really hurt their defense though, as in the 5 ½ games after he got hurt, they allowed 31.8 points per game. That’s slightly skewed by the fact that, with the exception of a week 17 game against Arizona, they faced all playoff teams in that stretch, including New England, Green Bay, Baltimore, Seattle, and Atlanta, but the injury really did hurt them.

What saved their season was actually another injury, however, as Alex Smith got hurt, allowing Colin Kaepernick to take over under center and make this a better team, in spite of the worsened turnover margin, defensive starter regression, etc. If you look at their respective records, it doesn’t look like Kaepernick really made this a much better team. Alex Smith went 6-2-1 in his 9 starts and, including playoffs, Kaepernick went 7-3. That’s not a noticeable difference, especially considering Smith did go 13-3 the season before. Even when you take into account that Smith was losing his final start to the Rams before Kaepernick came in and salvaged a tie, it still doesn’t look like Kaepernick was a significantly better quarterback just looking at records, but you have to go deeper.

While Smith played 3 eventual playoff teams in his 9 starts, Kaepernick faced 5 playoff teams in his 10 starts. That’s in addition to a game against 10-win Chicago and a trip to New Orleans. In addition, he had to go to Seattle late in the season, while Smith got to face them at home when Russell Wilson was still getting his feet wet. Even though Smith beat Seattle and Kaepernick lost his game to Seattle, they actually scored the same amount of points in those 2 games, 13. Smith also had more defensive support. In the 8 games he started and finished, the defense surrendered 12.9 points per game. In Kaepernick’s 10 starts, the defense allowed 23.5 points per game, largely due to a tougher schedule and Justin Smith’s injury. Smith also had the benefit of a defense that allowed 14.3 points per game in 2011.

How did he manage a similar record to Smith with much less defensively support? Well he led the offense to more points per game, despite a tougher schedule. While Smith led the offense to 23.6 points per game in 2012 and 23.8 points per game in 2011, Kaepernick led them to 28.8 points per game in his 10 starts. He did that despite less support on the ground from Frank Gore, who annually struggles in the 2^nd half of the season. Gore averaged 5.5 yards per carry in the first 8 games of the season, as opposed 4.0 yards per carry in the second 8 games of the regular season, though he did average 5.1 yards per carry in 3 playoff games.

With the schedule toughening, the defense about to start allowing more points, and Gore about to start struggling, the 49ers might have had a tough time making the playoffs had Smith started the 2^nd half of their season, let alone getting to the Super Bowl. Had they not come back in that St. Louis game, they would have been 6-3 after 9 games.

They allowed 20.9 points per game in the final 7 games of the regular season. If they had continued to average around the 23 and a half points per game that Smith was leading them to for the past season and a half (optimistic considering Gore and the strengthed schedule), they probably would have gone 4-3 in those 7 games, putting them at 10-6. Seattle would have won the division and the 49ers would have been battling for the 10-win Bears and the 10-win Vikings for the 2 wild card spots in the NFC. They would have been much less likely to go to the Super Bowl.

If that’s enough to convince you that going from Kaepernick to Smith saved their season, Kaepernick also made throws of much higher difficulty and skill level. ProFootballFocus grades every throw a quarterback makes. In 7 ½ regular season games, Kaepernick graded out with a +12.8 throwing the football (not even taking into account his running ability). That was almost triple Smith’s score of +4.9 in 8 ½ games. In 16 regular season games in 2011, Smith was at +16.6, which fell to +10.4 after two playoff games. Kaepernick got better in the post-season, grading out at +20.0 with the post-season taken into account.

If Gore gets off to another hot start again this season and if the defense bounces back somewhat (I don’t think they’ll allow 23.5 points per game this season), they’re going to be near impossible to beat in the 1^st half of the season and things aren’t going to get much easier for their opponents from there on out. They probably have the most non-quarterback talent in the NFL, even with a torn Achilles ending Michael Crabtree’s season, and now they actually have a top level quarterback who can win without the team needing to dominate the turnover battle.

There are a few concerns: one is the unlikely possibility that defensive coordinators have completely figured Kaepernick from an off-season of watching tape. The second one is more likely, it’s that their injury luck finally runs out (Crabtree’s torn Achilles could be just the start), but even then they should have to talent to compensate. There’s also the possibility that Justin Smith ages in a hurry (or gets hurt). He proved to be their most important defensive player last season. Without him, Aldon Smith and their secondary got completely exposed. They also probably won’t continue to recover 58.5% of their fumbles, though Kaepernick has given this team the ability to win without dominating the turnover battle.

Finally, no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season since the early 90s Bills. It’s why I didn’t pick the Patriots last season. Still, I like this team a lot more going into 2013 than I did going in 2012. They should be among the best regular season teams and compete for a 2^nd straight 1^st round bye. And I won’t rule out them breaking that aforementioned trend.

Quarterbacks

I mentioned Colin Kaepernick’s throwing ability in the opening, but that’s only one side of him. He’s also, obviously, a very talented runner, rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in about 10 ½ games. His versatility is what will make it very hard for teams to adjust to him and he has a very low chance of a sophomore slump for that reason. Also, he has no history of serious injuries and at 6-4 230 he’s very sturdy running in the open field. He led them to 5 more points per game last season than Smith and should continue to lead the 49ers to the high 20s in points per game.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One player who should have been really helped out by Kaepernick’s presence last season is Frank Gore. Mobile quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Vince Young to Robert Griffin to Russell Wilson all significantly helped their starting running backs because defenses have to worry about the quarterback’s ability to take off. However, Gore’s tendency to struggle in the 2^nd half of seasons got in the way of that. In 2011, he averaged 4.9 YPC in his first 8 games and 3.6 YPC in his last 8 games, while in 2012, he went from 5.5 YPC to 4.0 YPC.

That makes sense considering Gore’s age as he heads into his age 30 season. The 49ers have drafted a running back in each of the last 3 drafts, adding Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, and most recently Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore might not see a snap this season because of injury, but with Hunter and James maturing, they should cut into Gore’s touches even more this season, in an attempt to keep him fresher down the stretch.

49ers have cut his touches per game in each of the last 2 years, from 22.6 in 2010 to 18.7 in 2011 to 17.9 in 2012. Expect that number to shrink down even more in 2013 and he’s not as big a part of the passing game under Jim Harbaugh as he used to be, catching 45 passes in the last 2 years combined after averaging 51 per year in the previous 5 years. Colin Kaepernick, who rarely checks down, threw to him even less, as he caught just 11 passes in his 10 starts. However, fewer touches could help him on a per carry basis, as could Kaepernick’s presence for a whole season.

This will probably be Gore’s last season in San Francisco as they’re unlikely to want to bring him back for his age 31 season in 2014, when he’ll be owed a non-guaranteed 6.45 million. They seem confident in the trio of Lattimore, Hunter, and James for the future. There’s also a chance he could see his abilities fall off a cliff this season, but that’s not a huge concern as they have the running back depth to compensate.

Hunter has rushed for 844 yards and 4 touchdowns on 184 carries, with 25 catches for 255 yards, in 2 seasons since going in the 4^th round in 2011. James, meanwhile, rushed for 125 yards on 27 carries with 3 catches for 29 yards in limited action as a 2^nd round rookie as Gore’s primary backup in Hunter’s absence late in the season. He also rushed for 65 yards and a score on 11 post-season attempts. Meanwhile, fullback Bruce Miller is one of the best in the game, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked fullback last season after ranking 9^th as a rookie in 2011.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Their running game is also helped by an unbelievable offensive line. They were much improved overall in 2012, as opposed to 2011. In 2011, they graded out 3^rd in run blocking, 29^th in pass blocking, and 24^th in pass block efficiency. In 2012, they ranked 7^th, 1^st, and 17^th respectively in those 3 measures. The right side of their offensive line was most improved. They went into 2012 with Anthony Davis, a 2010 1^st round pick, looking like a bust at right tackle after 2 straight poor seasons, especially struggling in pass protection, and with an unknown at right guard. They “lost” incumbent Adam Snyder in free agency, but he was one of the worst guards in the league the season before. However, new starter Alex Boone was a converted tackle who had seen very little action anywhere since going undrafted in 2009 for character reasons.

Boone had a huge breakout season in his first year as a starter, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked guard, excelling as a run blocker. Davis, meanwhile, finally capitalized on his upside, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked offensive tackle (and 2^nd ranked right tackle behind Andre Smith), excelling as a run blocker as well.

Also capitalizing on his upside and first round talent was left guard Mike Iupati, who broke out last season, ranking 5^th on ProFootballFocus’ among guards, excelling in, yes, run blocking. Of the trio of breakout stars, he has the best chance of maintaining or even improving that level of play in 2013 and beyond because, even before his breakout season, he was ProFootballFocus, 13^th and 11^th ranked guard in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Boone and Davis are still one year wonders at this point, but they should continue playing well in 2013.

Their best offensive lineman was actually Joe Staley, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked offensive tackle on the blindside at left tackle. He’s another former 1^st round pick, from the 2007 draft class, and while he never did anything like what he did last season before, he’s always been a solid starter so he should continue being one of the best left tackles in the game in 2013.

Their “weak point” was center Jonathan Goodwin. He did grade out 15^th among eligible centers on ProFootballFocus, but he’s been inconsistent in the recent past and he’s heading into his age 35 season so there could be a falloff for him this season. However, if he’s your worst offensive lineman, you’re doing well. They will continue plowing open holes for their running backs and protecting Colin Kaepernick well.

Grade: A

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One thing that people are saying could lead to Kaepernick having a sophomore slump is the loss of #1 receiver Michael Crabtree. Crabtree and Kaepernick showed tremendous chemistry last season, leading to former 1^st round pick Crabtree having a breakout year. Crabtree had 46 catches for 665 yards and 6 touchdowns in the final 8 games of the season and then added another 20 catches for 285 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 playoff games. However, top level quarterbacks can succeed without great receivers. Kaepernick should be able to just go to the next man.

That next man is probably going to be Vernon Davis. Davis faded away big time down the stretch when Kaepernick took over. In the final 11 games of the season, including playoffs, Davis caught just 28 passes for 428 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, that was more because Crabtree got so many more targets from Kaepernick. In those 11 games, Crabtree was targeted 95 times and Davis was targeted 43 times. It wasn’t necessarily that he played poorly. He did catch 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in those 3 playoff games and with a whole off-season together with Kaepernick, he should take over as their #1 receiver, which will help make up for Crabtree’s absence. It’s certainly not like Davis is untalented or anything, as he averaged 67 catches for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns per season from 2009-2011. He’s also a great run and pass blocker.

Anquan Boldin’s presence should also help make up for Crabtree’s absence. Boldin was acquired from the Ravens for a 6^th round pick as the Ravens couldn’t afford his salary. Boldin is aging, heading into his age 33 season, but he’s never been reliant on athleticism so he should age pretty well. His hands and body control won’t really age that fast. He caught 65 passes for 921 yards (both his highest totals since joining the Ravens) and 4 touchdowns last season and then exploded in the post-season, catching 22 passes for 380 yards and 4 touchdowns in 4 games, along with at least a half dozen incredible catches that the Ravens would not have won the Super Bowl without. This year, he’ll serve as a solid #2 receiver on the last year’s Super Bowl runner up, though his days as a 1000 yard receiver are probably over.

The issue is, after him, they really lack depth in the receiving corps. The only other receiver on their roster with a significant number of career catches is Mario Manningham, a marginal receiver whose status for the season is in doubt after tearing his ACL last December. After Boldin and Crabtree, their projected next 3 receivers do not have a single career catch between them. That’s because two of them are rookies and one of them did not catch a pass in his rookie season last year.

Those players are Quinton Patton, Vance McDonald, and AJ Jenkins. Jenkins and Patton will compete for the 3^rd receiver job. Jenkins was a 1^st round pick of the 49ers in 2012, but played just 47 total snaps as a rookie. The 49ers wanted to ease him into action, but I think they would have liked more than 47 snaps from him (with no catches). He just didn’t impress in practice at all. A questionable pick at the time (I thought Chris Givens, who went in the 4^th round, was a similar style player who would be a better pro), that decision looks even more questionable now.

Patton, meanwhile, is a 4^th round rookie and he could prove to be a steal. He’s not overly athletic, but he’s a great physical possession receiver, catching 183 passes for 2594 yards and 24 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons for Louisiana Tech, including a 21 catch, 233 yard, 4 touchdown game against Texas A&M in a near upset in their biggest game of the season in 2012. While he looks to have a bright future, the transition from Louisiana Tech to the NFL might be too big for him to have much of an impact as a rookie. The 49ers also have Kyle Williams at wide receiver, but he’s a depth receiver coming off a torn ACL and while his 35 career catches are more than most of the team, they’re not impressive.

Vance McDonald is the other rookie and he’ll serve as the #2 tight end, replacing Delanie Walker. Walker is a loss. Considering how much they like to use two-tight ends, he was essentially a starter, but, as good of a blocker as he was, he had lead hands and very little athleticism in the open field. McDonald, however, is incredibly raw, though he has a ridiculous upside.

One of the stars of the Combine, he ran a 4.69 40 at 6-4 267 with 34 3/8 inch arms, 10 1/8 inch hands, and threw up 31 reps of 225. He’s got upside as both a blocker and a receiver and wasn’t utilized properly at Rice, where he was essentially a big slot receiver, which is why he didn’t really produce. We’ll see how much the 2^nd round pick can contribute as a rookie. He’ll compete for the #2 tight end job with Garrett Celek, who will probably be the 3^rd tight end again. He has 4 career catches.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned in the opening, the defense kind of fell apart last season down the stretch. The tougher schedule had a lot to do with it, but you can also blame Justin Smith’s injury for a lot of it. As I mentioned, in the 5 ½ games after he got hurt, they allowed 31.8 points per game, though their schedule skews that number. Still, with him not on the field or with him playing at nowhere near 100%, they were not the same defense.

Smith didn’t really do a whole lot in terms of rushing the passer last season, even before the injury, with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 21 hurries on 518 pass rush snaps, an uninspiring 6.0% pass rush rate, but he dominated against the run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end against the run and 5^th overall at his position. He also drew double teams with regularity, allowing Aldon Smith to see much easier blocking than most top level pass rushers, a big part of the reason why he had such a good season rushing the passer (more on that later).

However, in the post-season, he didn’t draw double teams, he managed just 2 hurries total in 3 games, and he struggled against the run. Overall, he saw a significant decline in 2012 from 2011, when he was ProFootballFocus’ highest graded defensive player overall, and, going into his age 34 season after a ridiculous workload over the past 2 seasons (2141 total snaps), he will probably continue to decline. He’s so important to their defense, so it’s a real concern for them this season.

If Smith gets hurt, it’s unclear who would take over his spot. They drafted Tank Carradine in the 2^nd round to be his future successor, but he’s coming off a torn ACL of his own, suffered back in November. He was able to work out before the draft in April so he might be good to go for the start of the season, but it’s unclear at what level he can play. The other option is Glenn Dorsey, a free agent acquisition, but he was pretty uninspiring as a starter at 5-technique in Kansas City. Besides, he’s slated to be the starting nose tackle.

Dorsey might seem like an odd fit at nose tackle considering his best role would be as a one gap penetrating defensive tackle in a 4-3, but the 49ers use a nose tackle less frequently than any other 3-4 team because they’re in sub packages so much. Dorsey will get opportunities to rush the passer from the traditional defensive tackle spot in 4-3 under packages, spelling Smith and Ray McDonald. He also can’t be as bad as Isaac Sopoaga, who really struggled in very limited action as their nose tackle last season. Ian Williams is the other nose tackle option. He’s more of a true nose tackle, but the 2011 undrafted free agent has played just 39 snaps in 2 seasons with the team.

On the other side of the formation, the aforementioned Ray McDonald will remain the starter. McDonald had a breakout season in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end in his first year as a starter, but, as could be predicted, he didn’t play as well in 2012, grading out 9^th at his position. He wasn’t bad or anything, but it was a significant difference. He should once again be a solid starter who plays the run and rushes the passer well.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned how much of Aldon Smith’s success was tied to Justin Smith. Aldon was 2nd in the league with 20 sacks and for a while looked on pace to break Michael Strahan’s single season record. However, because of Justin Smith, he saw much easier blocking than most top level pass rushers. ProFootballFocus takes all of this into account and they graded him out 3^rd at his position overall and 2^nd at his position in terms of rushing the passer. And when Justin got hurt, Aldon recorded one sack in his final 6 games of the season, including playoffs. If Justin starts showing his age or gets hurt again, it could really negatively affect Aldon and this pass rush as a whole. That’s an issue because of how dependent on the front 7 their secondary is, as you’ll see later.

Aldon also wasn’t as productive rushing the passer as his 20 sacks would suggest, even with Justin in front of him tying up blocks. To go with those 20 sacks, he had 13 hits, and 39 hurries on 538 pass rush snaps, a 13.4% pass rush rate that’s impressive, but not as elite as 20 sacks would suggest. In terms of pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries per 100 snaps), he actually was behind Paul Kruger and 2^nd at his position. Geno Atkins, Brandon Graham, Cameron Wake, and Charles Johnson also did better than him in this aspect at other positions. Smith was also not an elite run player and committed 8 penalties, 2^nd most at his position. He’s a very good player, but overrated. Justin Smith’s impact, meanwhile, is underrated.

Opposite Aldon, the 49ers have Ahmad Brooks. Brooks is not nearly the pass rusher than Aldon is, but he’s much more well rounded, excelling in coverage and against the run and being used in a variety of different ways for that reason. Overall, he was ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher, but graded out below average in that aspect, with 7 sacks, 10 hits, and 33 hurries on 492 pass rush snaps, a 10.2% rate. They also added Corey Lemonier in the 3^rd round of the draft to provide depth and he’s a great athlete and pass rusher, but incredibly raw so I don’t expect much from him as a rookie. If Aldon Smith becomes less productive this season rushing the passer, they could have trouble in that aspect of the game.

Meanwhile, at middle linebacker for the 49ers, things are about as good as they get in the NFL. Patrick Willis is hands down the best middle linebacker in the NFL, grading out as a top-2 middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus for 5 straight seasons, something no one else comes close to. He was their #1 ranked middle linebacker both in 2009 and 2012 and he excels in all aspects of the game.

One of the seasons Willis didn’t rank #1 was 2011 and that was because teammate NaVorro Bowman ranked #1 that season. Bowman, a 2010 3^rd round pick, slipped up a little bit in 2012 and he’s not on the same level as Willis, but no one really is. He certainly didn’t play bad, grading out as the #7 ranked middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus in his 2^nd season as a starter. There’s not a better inside linebacker pair in the NFL.

Grade: A

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Secondary

I mentioned their secondary was exposed last season down the stretch as their front 7 and pass rush play slipped. Their secondary could be even worse this season. Dashon Goldson is gone. He’s an overrated player who wasn’t worth nearly what the Buccaneers paid him, but he was still an above average starter. 1^st round rookie Eric Reid will start in his absence and he’ll probably be a downgrade, at least in his first season in the league.

Carlos Rogers could also be gone. Rogers had a down year in 2012 after a career year in 2011, as could be expected, but he still graded out above average. The 49ers are reportedly interested in making him a final cut, which would save them 4.25 million dollars. That might not be a bad idea considering he’s heading into his age 32 season and could be headed for a down season, but there’s no doubt that a top trio of cornerbacks that consists of three of Nnamdi Asomugha, Eric Wright, Tarell Brown, and Chris Culliver isn’t very imposing.

Brown is the only one of that quartet guaranteed a big role. Brown finished 2012 as ProFootballFocus’ 13th ranked cornerback, 7th if post-season is included. He didn’t allow a touchdown through the regular season, something only Cortland Finnegan and Antoine Winfield could also say among 16 game starters at cornerback. He was memorably burned for a touchdown by Julio Jones in San Francisco’s eventual NFC Championship victory over the Falcons, but that was the only touchdown he allowed all season, including playoffs, over 779 coverage snaps. He also missed just one tackle all season.

He finished the season allowing 61.1% completion on 113 attempts for 890 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 14 deflections, and 9 penalties. However, he really hit his stride starting week 8, grading out 2.0 (elite) or better on ProFootballFocus in 6 of his final 12 games, including 3 of 4 post-season games (Atlanta excluded). From week 8 on, he allowed 47 completions on 82 attempts (57.3%) for 551 yards (6.7 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. In those final 12 games, he had 13 of his 14 deflections, including a 5 deflection game against Arizona week 8 that was his best game of the season.

While Carlos Rogers was technically the 49ers’ #1 cornerback, the 49ers have their cornerbacks exclusively cover one side of the field, rather than having one guy shadow the opponent’s best receiver, so Brown had plenty of chances to go against the best receivers in the league, especially down the stretch and he more than held his own. Working exclusively on the right side, Brown held Brandon Marshall to one catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, Jordy Nelson to 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts (in their post-season matchup with Green Bay), and Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 attempts in 2 games.

Only Julio Jones, who burned him for 7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, got the best of him among the elite receivers he faced down the stretch. With Goldson gone and Carlos Rogers aging and probably following him out the door, Brown could have his biggest responsibilities yet this season and could be San Francisco’s de facto #1 cornerback. Based on his play last season, he seems up to the challenge.

Eric Wright probably has the 2nd best chance to make the roster, if we assume Rogers is a goner, because he has the most experience on the slot, which has been Rogers’ specialty over the past 2 seasons. Wright was recently acquired from Tampa Bay for a late round pick and he’s not that good of a defensive back. When the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright to a 5-year, 37.5 million dollar contract last off-season, it looked like an absolutely ridiculous deal. Wright was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL the prior two seasons (just ask Cleveland and Detroit fans). There was a reason he was available for a 1-year deal the previous off-season before the 2011 season.

In 2011 with the Lions, he ranked 105 of 109 eligible cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus last season, allowing a completion percentage of 62.5%, 7.0 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while ranking below average against the run. He was actually thrown on more than any cornerback in the league except Jabari Greer, being thrown on 120 times. It was a move that reeked of desperation for a team with no defensive back talent and plenty of cap space to burn.

However, he was arrested again for DUI earlier this month (he had a previous arrest last off-season) and that was apparently the last straw for the Buccaneers, who would have cut him outright (penalty free) and owed him no money, if they couldn’t find a trade partner. It was a pretty low risk trade for the 49ers because they aren’t giving up much (late round picks have a hard time making their roster because of their depth) and because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, but he’s still not a great talent and there’s a chance he could be facing another suspension after another off-season DUI (last year’s was a felony and this was a misdemeanor, so that’s progress).

Culliver was their #3 cornerback, playing outside with Tarell Brown in 3-cornerback sets, when Rogers would move to the slot. He played 691 regular season snaps in that role last season because of how much they use sub packages. He graded out above average, allowing 36 catches on 73 attempts for 471 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 6 penalties. However, he struggled mightily in the post-season. He allowed 14 catches on 22 attempts for 252 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 2 passes and committing 3 penalties.

Asomugha is the other option and he’ll probably be on the outside looking out. He got old in a hurry after signing a massive deal with the Eagles 2 off-seasons ago. In 2011, he ranked 88^th out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he ranked 101^st out of 113 eligible. He’s going into his age 32 season this season and while he’s a better fit for the 49ers’ scheme than the Eagles’ scheme, he looks like the worst cornerback of the bunch. His speed is pretty much all gone.

Donte Whitner is the other starter in the secondary as he’ll play safety next to Eric Reid. Whitner made the Pro-Bowl last year, but only by association and because of the San Francisco Bay Area’s tendency to stuff the ballot box for All-Star games in all sports. He graded out below average and struggled mightily in coverage, especially in the post-season. In the regular season, he allowed 34 catches on 43 attempts for 330 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and not committing a penalty. In the post-season, he allowed 8 catches on 11 attempts for 86 yards, 1 penalty, 1 deflection, and another 4 touchdowns allowed. He allowed 12 touchdowns between the regular season and the post-season, a ridiculous amount considering the 49ers allowed just 26 passing touchdowns all season. He’s a box safety and that’s about it.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Not much explanation needed here. Harbaugh rebuilt Stanford’s football program, turning them from 1 win in 2006 to a perennial BCS bowl contender in 4 years and then won the NFL’s Head Coach of the Year Award in 2011, taking a perennial non-playoff team to the NFC Championship. The following season, he took them to the Super Bowl. He hasn’t been in the league very long, but he’s clearly one of the best.

Grade: A

Overall

Defensively, the 49ers won’t be the team that allowed 23.5 points per game in the 2^nd half of last season and the playoffs and they definitely won’t be the team that allowed 31.8 points per game in the final 5 ½ games of the season. However, they are slipping on that side of the ball. Justin Smith, the most important cog, is aging and their secondary is really lacking on talent, which will be exposed if their pass rush struggles.

Offensively though, they averaged 5 points per more game under Kaepernick last season than they did under Smith in 2011 and the first half of 2012. Even if they start allowing 17-19 points per game, they’ll still outscore opponents by about 10 points per game because I expect them to also score 27-29 points per game. They remain one of the best teams in the NFL and they are built to win a Super Bowl more than they were at this point last season because they’re not as reliant on winning the turnover battle.

In the division, they should split with Seattle, an evenly matched team that is awesome at home and not as good on the road and they’ll probably sweep both St. Louis and Arizona, so I have them at 4 or 5 wins in the division. Outside of the division, they host Green Bay, Indianapolis, Houston, Carolina, and Atlanta. That’s a rough 5 games, but they should win at least 3 of them. They also go to Tennessee, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Washington, and Tampa Bay. New Orleans will be a tough place to win and Washington won’t be a pushover, but they should still win 12 or so games.

However, I won’t predict them to win the Super Bowl or even make it back to the Super Bowl because , no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season since the early 90s Bills. It’s why I didn’t pick the Patriots last season. They could break that streak, but it’s more likely that it’s their turn to have a great regular season followed by a disappointing early playoff exit, following in the footsteps of Green Bay, Denver, and New England, who have done so in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 12-4 1^st in NFC West

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Eric Wright to the San Francisco 49ers

July 19, 2013 stevenlourie 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Trade for Tampa Bay: When the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright to a 5-year, 37.5 million dollar contract this off-season, it looked like an absolutely ridiculous deal. Wright was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL the prior two seasons (just ask Cleveland and Detroit fans). There was a reason he was available for a 1-year deal the previous off-season before the 2011 season. In 2011 with the Lions, he ranked 105 of 109 eligible cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus last season, allowing a completion percentage of 62.5%, 7.0 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while ranking below average against the run. He was actually thrown on more than any cornerback in the league except Jabari Greer, being thrown on 120 times. It was a move that reeked of desperation for a team with no defensive back talent and plenty of cap space to burn.

In 2012, he graded out below average on 518 snaps before the best possible thing that could happen for the Buccaneers happened: Wright got suspended for 4 games for performance enhancing drugs. That suspension voided all the guaranteed money on Wright’s deal and gave them all the leverage in the off-season, as they restructured his contract down to 1 year and a non-guaranteed 1.5 million for the 2013 season (rather than just cutting him outright). However, he was arrested again for DUI earlier this month (he had a previous arrest last off-season) and that was apparently the last straw for the Buccaneers, who would have cut him outright (penalty free) and owed him no money, if they couldn’t find a trade partner. Given that, credit them for actually getting something for him, even if it is just a conditional late round pick.

They won’t really miss Wright. Obviously they have Darrelle Revis, but they also have Jonathan Banks and Leonard Johnson. Banks, a 2^nd round rookie, will step into the starting lineup for Wright and while he’s unproven, he has much more upside. Johnson, meanwhile, could be a diamond in the rough as the 3^rd cornerback. He went undrafted in 2012 after running a 4.71 40 at 5-10 196, but played well as a rookie, grading out above average on ProFootballFocus. He’s a good press cornerback and will probably move Banks to the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

Grade: A

Trade for San Francisco: This is a pretty low risk trade for the 49ers because they aren’t giving up much (late round picks have a hard time making their roster because of their depth) and because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, but he’s still not a great talent and there’s a chance he could be facing another suspension after another off-season DUI (last year’s was a felony and this was a misdemeanor, so that’s progress). He’ll compete with Nnamdi Asomugha and incumbent Chris Culliver for the 3^rd cornerback job, which gets a lot of action in San Francisco’s defense. Whoever wins that battle will line up opposite Tarell Brown with Carlos Rogers (who led the NFL in slot snaps played last season) on the slot. Wright is probably the favorite and could be the most talented of the bunch. He’s a good fit for the 49ers’ coverage scheme and their front 7 could make him look better than he is.

Grade: B

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2013 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

June 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

In 10 starts last year, including playoffs, Kaepernick threw for 2406 yards, with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 502 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 3850 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 803 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns. Michael Crabtree is out, but Vernon Davis, who did nothing for him until late in the playoff run last year, should be able to make up for his absence along with veteran Anquan Boldin, 2^nd year receiver AJ Jenkins and a pair of rookies Quinton Patton and Vance McDonald. I’m not going to quite project those stats for him because he won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but he’s still a projected top-5 fantasy quarterback.

Projection: 3600 passing yards 22 touchdowns 9 interceptions 700 rushing yards 7 touchdowns (326 pts standard, 370 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

For the 3^rd straight year, the 49ers have drafted a running back. While Marcus Lattimore might not play a snap this year due to injury, it’s just another reminder that the 49ers feel Gore doesn’t have much left. Heading into his age 30 season, Gore has played all 16 games in each of the last 2 years after doing so just once in his first 6 seasons, but the reason for that is because the 49ers have cut his touches per game in each of the last 2 years, from 22.6 in 2010 to 18.7 in 2011 to 17.9 in 2012. Expect that number to shrink down even more in 2013 with Kendall Hunter returning from injury and LaMichael James getting a bigger role and he’s no lock to play all 16 games.

It’s also worth noting that he’s tired out down the stretch in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2011, he averaged 4.9 YPC in his first 8 games and 3.6 YPC in his last 8 games, while in 2012, he went from 5.5 YPC to 4.0 YPC. He’s also not as big a part of the passing game under Jim Harbaugh as he used to be, catching 45 passes in the last 2 years combined after averaging 51 per year in the previous 5 years. Colin Kaepernick, who rarely checks down, threw to him even less, as he caught just 11 passes in his 10 starts. Gore is a RB2, but one with little upside and a lot of downside considering his age and the amount of competition in the backfield.

Projection: 220 carries for 990 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 yards (163 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

Anquan Boldin had a great post-season last year and is their #1 wide receiver after the injury to Michael Crabtree, but he’ll probably be overdrafted. He turns 33 in October and while his production has been hanging in the 837-921 yard range over the last 3 seasons, I think it’s unlikely he gets across that 1000 yard threshold this year and he certainly won’t match Michael Crabtree’s 1105 yards. Vernon Davis is a better bet to lead the 49ers in receiving yards.

Projection: 65 catches for 880 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Vernon Davis caught just 41 passes for 548 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2012 and was even worse in the 2^nd half of the year as he didn’t show any chemistry with new quarterback Colin Kaepernick, catching 16 passes for 174 yards and 1 touchdown in the final 8 games of the regular season. However, that changed in the post-season, as he caught 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in 3 games. With another off-season working with Kaepernick, Davis should continue that kind of production and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving with Michael Crabtree out. He and Boldin are the only veteran receivers they have and Davis is simply more talented, younger, and more familiar with Kaepernick.

Projection: 58 catches for 900 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

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San Francisco 49ers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Tarell Brown

May 24, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, 49ers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team (rookies don’t count). For the San Francisco 49ers, that player is cornerback Tarell Brown.

On a defense as good as the 49ers’, it’s easy for a very talented player to go unnoticed. While guys like Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, and NaVorro Bowman rightfully get all the attention, Tarell Brown was probably the 3^rd biggest named member of their secondary last year, behind #1 cornerback Carlos Rogers and safety Dashon Goldson, who signed one of the richest contracts ever for a safety this off-season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On a defense that sent 6 players to the Pro-Bowl (due to a combination of skill and the San Francisco Bay Area’s tendency to dominate All-Star game voting), Brown, one of 5 San Francisco starters who didn’t receive the honor, is the definition of a forgotten man. However, he finished the season as by far San Francisco’s highest rated defensive back and most importantly he got better as the season went on, which bodes well for the 28-year-old’s 2013 prospects, as he heads into the final year of his contract. The 49ers would be wise to lock him up now before he breaks out, especially since they could have to deal with long term extensions for Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick next off-season, as well as determine pending free agent Justin Smith’s future with the team.

Brown finished 2012 as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked cornerback, 7^th if post-season is included. He didn’t allow a touchdown through the regular season, something only Cortland Finnegan and Antoine Winfield could also say among 16 game starters at cornerback. He was memorably burned for a touchdown by Julio Jones in San Francisco’s eventual NFC Championship victory over the Falcons, but that was the only touchdown he allowed all season, including playoffs, over 779 coverage snaps. He also missed just one tackle all season.

While Carlos Rogers is technically the 49ers’ #1 cornerback, the 49ers have their cornerbacks exclusively cover one side of the field, rather than having one guy shadow the opponent’s best receiver, so Brown had plenty of chances to go against the best receivers in the league, especially down the stretch and he more than held his own. Working exclusively on the right side, Brown held Brandon Marshall to one catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, Jordy Nelson to 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts (in their post-season matchup with Green Bay), and Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 attempts in 2 games.

Only Julio Jones, who burned him for 7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, got the best of him among the elite receivers he faced down the stretch. With Goldson gone and Carlos Rogers aging, Brown could have his biggest responsibilities yet this season and could finish the year as San Francisco’s de facto #1 cornerback. Based on his play last season, he seems up to the challenge.

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Baltimore Ravens trade WR Anquan Boldin to the San Francisco 49ers

March 12, 2013 stevenlourie 49ers, Ravens

Trade for Baltimore: I get that the Ravens were going to cut Anquan Boldin if they couldn’t find a suitor via trade and given that it’s good that they got something for him, but I question the logic of cutting him in the first place. He was just as big a reason why they won the Super Bowl as Joe Flacco and Flacco, who they just signed to a massive long-term deal, took Boldin’s side in negotiating with the Ravens and supported his stand when he was asked to take a pay cut. Flacco knows he owes Boldin a ton. The last thing you want to do is upset your franchise quarterback.

I get that the Ravens needed to clear some cap room, but there were other ways of doing so (his pay cut was only going to clear 2 million, so it’s not like they felt they definitely needed to clear 6 million) and Boldin wasn’t an absolute must get rid of at his scheduled salary. He was worth the 6 million he was owed next season. He didn’t have huge numbers this year, but made some excellent catches, especially in the post-season and really had a huge post-season in general. He’s lost the ability to separate at this point in his career, but he’s never really been able to separate and his ability to make contested catches with excellent hands and body control won’t really get old.

Grade: D

Trade for 49ers: The 49ers were expected to have 15 draft picks after compensatory picks were handed out, including a bunch in the late rounds. Those late rounders were probably going to be practice squad guys at best because of how deep this roster already is, so why not give one up for Boldin? I’ve already established he’s worth his salary this season, but he’ll have a big impact for the 49ers as now inexperienced AJ Jenkins won’t be forced into a starting role on what should be a contending team once again in 2013. Also, Boldin is only under contract one more year so this move won’t hinder their ability to go after Darrelle Revis if they so choose nor will it hinder their ability to extend Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick long-term next off-season.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers trade QB Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs

March 2, 2013 stevenlourie 49ers, Chiefs

Trade for Chiefs: I was stunned when I saw what the 49ers got for Alex Smith. When news that the 49ers and Chiefs likely had a deal in place for Alex Smith broke, it was rumored that they got anything from a 3rd to 5th rounder. Reports leading up to the trade said that the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a mid-round pick, including a Sacramento Bee report on Wednesday Morning, hours before the compensation was announced, that said the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a 4th rounder.

That made sense. Smith was a free agent last off-season and teams weren’t exactly lining up to pay him. Owed 16 million over the final 2 years of his contract, it made sense that teams didn’t want to pony up a high pick for a quarterback that, without San Francisco’s great coaching staff and great supporting cast, would probably not be a whole lot better than he was in 2009 and 2010.

Sure, last off-season was a better quarterback draft, but there were also more quarterback needy teams. Teams like Miami and Seattle have since found guys to satisfy their need at the quarterback position, while very few new teams became quarterback needy. The Cardinals are one of those as they seem interested in giving up on Kevin Kolb, but they were never a realistic destination for Smith because they play in the 49ers’ division. The other team is the Bills, but they seem to be much more interested in going the young quarterback route after finally acknowledging that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long term solution.

The Jets and Jaguars remain either uninterested (Jaguars) or financially unable (Jets) to find an upgrade for their current quarterback. With the Cardinals not being a realistic suitor, the only realistic destinations for Smith were Kansas City and Cleveland. Other teams might have expressed interest, but I don’t see why a team ended up giving up significantly more than a mid-round pick to pay a guy that teams weren’t lining up to pay last off-season. The 49ers’ haul in this deal is the 34th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and a conditional mid round pick in 2014.

I like the fit of Smith in Kansas City, a lot. First, Andy Reid’s west coast offense plays much more to the strengths of the weak armed Smith than the downfield throw based offenses of Norv Turner in Cleveland and Bruce Arians in Arizona. Second, the Chiefs needed a quarterback upgrade probably more than any other team in the NFL and this was an awful off-season for that to be the case.

This is a talented team. People laughed when it was announced that they had 5 Pro-Bowlers, but they do have a lot of Pro-Bowl caliber players. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are among the two best bookend pass rushers in the NFL. Brandon Flowers is at least a top-10 cornerback in the NFL, maybe top-5. Derrick Johnson is one of the best middle linebackers and Jamaal Charles one of the best running backs. Jon Asamoah is one of the league’s best young interior linemen and don’t forget about left tackle Branden Albert and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. Both are among the top free agents at their respective positions this off-season even though both are loaded positions in this free agency class. At least one of those two should be back in 2013.

If the NFL were a “who has the most good players” contest, the Chiefs would be up there among the best in the NFL, but it’s not. It’s a team game and a quarterback based league and when you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs were in 2013 and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate (-24), you’re not going to win a lot of games.

Andy Reid fixes the Head Coach thing and will be good for Alex Smith. He’s not Jim Harbaugh, but for all of his flaws, he’s always been great with quarterbacks. He was able to trade Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and AJ Feeley for a 2nd rounder each and none of the three did anything even remotely positive for their next team after being traded. Meanwhile, he turned Michael Vick from aging jail bum to a legitimate starting quarterback until last year when age just caught up too much.

Alex Smith stabilizes the quarterback situation and should stabilize their turnover situation (something that generally stabilizes in the long run anyway). The key word is stabilizes. I don’t think Alex Smith is a long term solution. He’s a two year stopgap for a quarterback that the Chiefs hopefully draft in stronger quarterback classes in 2014 or 2015. The Chiefs can make the playoffs this year. The AFC sucks and they have enough talent with the quarterback position stabilized to win 9 or 10 games against a last place schedule in the inferior AFC.

However, if they ever get to the playoffs, Alex Smith will be the limiting factor like he was in San Francisco. Alex Smith is not a franchise quarterback. He’s a stopgap that can win you a Super Bowl if absolutely everything is right and I mean everything like it was in San Francisco, from their league’s #1 scoring defense, to the league’s best top to bottom coaching staff, to all the offensive supporting talent on the offensive line, in the running game, and even in the receiving game.

The Chiefs can make the playoffs with him just like they made the playoffs in 2010 with Matt Cassel. They can follow that model, conservative offensive, good running game, good defense, win the turnover battle, easy schedule. But like with Matt Cassel in 2010, he wouldn’t deserve most of the credit because all that will prove is that Alex Smith is a tremendous upgrade over Brady Quinn and the 2012 version of Matt Cassel and considering those two combined to turn it over 23 times to 8 touchdowns last year, that’s not saying much.

Expect Smith’s numbers to be improved over his 60% completion percentage, 6.6 YPA, and 32 touchdowns to 22 interceptions from 2009 to 2010, but not drastically. The real danger is if the Chiefs do what they did after the 2010 season with Cassel, give him too much credit, and put all of their faith in him going forward. Cassel was not the reason they had success in 2010 and if the Chiefs realized that they could have had either Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick with their late first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

The Chiefs can have success in 2013 with Alex Smith, but it’s important they don’t repeat the same mistake. The 2014 quarterback class is deep enough that the Chiefs can draft a franchise quarterback in the 15 to 22 range and Smith will allow them to ease that quarterback along like the 49ers did with Kaepernick. But he’s not a franchise quarterback and for that reason, as good as the fit is, they overpaid.

Grade: C

Trade for 49ers: This one is much more straight forward. The 49ers weren’t using Alex Smith. While he’s probably top-20 NFL quarterback, he was clearly the 2nd best quarterback on the 49ers’ roster and while it’s nice to have an insurance policy like Smith, at 8.5 million, Smith just wasn’t worth it to the 49ers. And that’s before you even get into the possibility of a quarterback controversy arising the moment Kaepernick has a bad game. It’s just not worth it. If the 49ers had been unable to trade Smith, they probably just would have cut him. That’s not completely realistic. There was a market for him, but getting back a high 2nd rounder and a future mid round pick is a great haul. It’s not quite the Bengals getting a 1st and a 2nd for Carson Palmer, but it’s up there.

In addition to the picks they get in this deal, this trade gives the 49ers tremendous financial freedom. They are expected, once compensatory picks are in, to have 15 picks in the 2013 NFL Draft and I don’t think they have space on their roster for much more than half of those guys. They’ll make some moves. Ordinarily, trading up would be an option, but this is an awful draft class in terms of elite talent. Top-10 picks aren’t going to be worth what they usually are.

So the obvious other option is trading for a big time veteran like Percy Harvin or Darrelle Revis. Adding one of those two could hurt their ability to extend all of their young talent in the future, but when you’re in the position the 49ers are right now, I say you make it work under the cap for the next 2 years and figure out the rest later. Because of this trade, they have the draft picks and financial freedom to get that done and that’s worth so much more than Alex Smith would have been to them.

Grade: A

What this means for the NFL Draft: The most obvious thing it means is that Geno Smith is no longer a candidate for the first overall pick. The likelihood of him being that pick was dwindling in the days leading up to this trade, but that was just in expectation of this move being made. I still argue that if the Chiefs had been sitting there on draft day without a quarterback, they would have had to take Smith. While this is a poor quarterback class and Smith is not worth the #1 pick, their other option would have been taking a quarterback in the 2nd round. Despite recent successes of Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson, 2nd day quarterbacks becoming starters is incredibly rare and I think given the nature of this quarterback class, it’s going to be close to impossible this year.

Given what the Chiefs gave up for Smith, it’s also unlikely they use a high pick on a quarterback at all. For one, they don’t have a 2nd rounder so using their 3rd rounder on a quarterback when they have other pressing needs just wouldn’t make sense. Two, Smith is their starter this year. They believe in him. Any quarterback they draft will be a pure backup and I can’t see them taking one until the 4th, probably the 5th round. That will need to bring in another quarterback considering the only other one on their roster aside from the soon to be released Matt Cassel is Ricky Stanzi, who has never taken an NFL snap and couldn’t even get on the field behind the quarterback’s terrible quarterbacks last year. However, they won’t use a premium pick on one until 2014 at the earliest.

Luke Joeckel becomes the obvious choice at #1. He’s the consensus top talent in this draft class, but remember, the Chiefs can still re-sign Branden Albert. If they do that, they could still take Joeckel, but an offensive lineman is not worth the first pick unless it’s a left tackle and since Joeckel would either be playing another position or displacing someone who is already a strong left tackle, I don’t think he’d be worth that pick.

The Chiefs will try like crazy to move down and they could entice a team like Philadelphia to move up for Joeckel, but as I just said, this is a bad year for elite talent so I don’t expect much wheeling and dealing in the top-10, certainly not like last year. If Albert is re-signed, a defensive lineman like Sharrif Floyd or (if healthy) Star Lotulelei makes a lot of sense, as could a cornerback like DeMarcus Milliner. A cornerback hasn’t gone in the top-4 since 1997, but if it’s going to happen, at makes sense that it would happen in a draft like this.

As for the 49ers, they have a lot of picks and not a lot of needs and even if they trade for Harvin or Revis, that will remain the case. As everything currently stands, Tavon Austin makes a ton of sense for them at 31 if he’s still available. With Randy Moss being a free agent and Mario Manningham tearing his ACL, all they are left with at wide receiver behind Michael Crabtree is AJ Jenkins. While they still believe in the future of the 2012 1st round pick, he’s inexperienced and they need depth. Austin would be a perfect fit in their offense based on speed, deception, and misdirection.

Other draft needs include a young defensive lineman. Isaac Sopoaga and Justin Smith are both over 30 and the former is a free agent this off-season, with the latter being a free agent next off-season. They may need a tight end if Delanie Walker leaves as a free agent and a safety if Dashon Goldson leaves as a free agent. Cornerback depth is needed as Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown could both not be back with the team in 2014, Rogers as a cap casualty and Brown as a free agent.

As good as their offensive line is, Jonathan Goodwin at center will be in a contract year in 2013, his age 35 season and they don’t have an obvious successor. He might not even be back next season, owed 3.7 million, though his level of play last season should be enough to save his roster spot. Also expect them to use a mid-round pick on a younger, cheaper backup quarterback who fits their scheme better, someone like EJ Manuel, Matt Scott, or Zac Dysert. The only other quarterback on their roster right now is Scott Tolzien, who completely lacks experience and mobility. Harbaugh’s former quarterback in San Diego, Josh Johnson, could be another option as a mobile backup quarterback.

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San Francisco 49ers 2013 Needs

February 4, 2013 stevenlourie 49ers

A lot is being made about the 4th and goal non-holding call by the referees that essentially ended the game. I don’t think it was necessarily a bad call. It was a borderline call and either team would have had a beef depending on the outcome of the call. Obviously it’s not the way you want a Super Bowl to be decided, but I don’t have an issue with it. At least the refs were consistent. They pretty much swallowed their whistles all game and let the players play so that call went right along with that. That did benefit the Ravens who were being more physical and aggressive (Cary Williams bumped an official and didn’t get tossed), which could lead to conspiracy theories (between this game and all the calls the Ravens got against the Broncos, maybe the NFL wanted to see media darling Ray Lewis go out on top). Still, I have no issue with that particular call.

However, one thing I will say is that it’s important not to judge Kaepernick’s performance on the basis on that call (ie: if the call had gone in the 49ers’ favor and the 49ers had won, Kaepernick is a hero, but since it didn’t, he is a goat). Kaepernick played well enough to win. He went 16 of 28 for 308 yards, a touchdown and an interception and added 62 yards and another score on the ground. It’s a team sport. He doesn’t play defense. He doesn’t play special teams. He didn’t fumble (LaMichael James). He didn’t drop at least 74 yards worth of passes nor did he not play the ball on the one interception he threw (Randy Moss). He led the 49ers to 3 touchdowns and 3 field goals. It’s hard to put this one on him and Jim Harbaugh definitely made the right move going to him.

Not only was it the right long term move (paying Kaepernick 740K in his age 26 season in 2013 is much better than paying Alex Smith 8.5 million in his age 29 season, plus they can probably get a day two pick for Alex Smith), but they wouldn’t have been where they got to without Kaepernick. Alex Smith probably wouldn’t have beaten the Patriots in New England in a game that the Patriots threw up 34 and Alex Smith probably wouldn’t have come back in that first Rams’ game to get a tie. That would have left them at 10-6 and even if they would have still made the playoffs via a tiebreaker over Chicago, they would have been the 6 seed and had a much tougher road to the Super Bowl and with a much more limited quarterback.

With Kaepernick at quarterback, the future is bright for the 49ers. 19 of 22 starters are under contract for the 49ers in 2013 and only three will be older than 30. However, no team has gone from losing the Super Bowl to winning the Super Bowl since the 1972 Dolphins so, like the 2012 Patriots, the 2013 49ers will have 40+ years of history working against them. It’s really hard to play that many games, come that close, and then come back the next year and win it all. No team has done it with a 16 game regular season schedule. It’s too physically and mentally exhausting. No team since the 1993 Bills has even gone back to the Super Bowl and that was in a joke of an AFC back then. The NFC is loaded now.

The other concern is Justin Smith. He’s one of those 3 starters over 30 as he turns 34 in September. He tore his triceps against the Patriots week 15 and even though he only missed 10 quarters, he wasn’t the same when he returned and it was obvious. Aldon Smith recorded just one sack in his final 6 games without a healthy Justin Smith, after 20 in his first 13, and with a lack of a pass rush, their secondary, which actually ranked 2nd in the NFL in YPA, was exposed.

They allowed 25.2 points per game in those 6 games (excluding return touchdowns). Sure, they faced a tough batch of quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco), but Super Bowl caliber defenses should be able to limit those guys. The 49ers’ defense wasn’t. Smith should be healthy for the 2013 season, but how much longer can he be effective and who steps up if he can’t? Can Aldon Smith learn to beat double teams? Harbaugh definitely has this team in the right direction, but they have questions.

Safety

Dashon Goldson is a free agent. The 49ers franchised him last off-season, unwilling to commit to him long term based off of one high interception total, but this year he proved that he was much more than interceptions, picking off just 3 passes, but playing much better overall and grading out among the league’s best safeties on ProFootballFocus. He made the Pro-Bowl for the 2nd straight time in his career and rightfully so this time. Retaining him will be a priority of the 49ers’ off-season and, if they can’t, they’ll probably have to replace him externally.

Meanwhile, Donte Whitner also made the Pro-Bowl, but only by association. He really didn’t play that well and could be upgraded (he allowed two touchdowns in the Super Bowl alone). There was talk before the season of only using him in base packages, primarily as a run stopper. Heading into his contract year in 2013, the 49ers could bring in a 3rd safety to compete with him, even if Goldson is re-signed. The 49ers use a lot of sub packages anyway so extra defensive back depth is not a bad thing.

Nose Tackle

The 49ers don’t use a traditional 3-4 nose tackle that often. “Starting” nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga played on just 393 of 1280 possible defensive snaps for the team this season and he played pretty poorly as well. Heading into age 32 season, he sounds unlikely to be retained so the 49ers will need someone to play his snaps as purely a base package run stuffer, at the very least.

Tight End

Backup tight end Delanie Walker is a free agent. He does some nice things, but he also had the worst drop rate in the NFL this season, dropping 11 of 48targets, and only catching 26 of them. The 49ers love using two tight ends so the backup tight end is actually kind of a starter for this team. Walker played on 713 of 1229 possible offensive snaps. Given that, they could attempt to replace him with a starting caliber player. Without a ton of huge needs, a tight end like Zach Ertz could be an option for the 49ers’ at the end of the 1st round.

Center

The 49ers have most of their starters under contract for 2013 and most of them are pretty young too, which is a great spot to be in. However, center Jonathan Goodwin will be in a contract year in 2013, his age 34 season and I don’t know if the 49ers have a successor on their roster. Goodwin still played well last season on an overall incredible offensive line, but they could use a mid-round selection on a developmental center.

3-4 Defensive End

The player they bring in to play Sopoaga’s snaps could also provide some depth at 3-4 defensive end if he’s versatile enough. They probably will want to limit Justin Smith’s snaps a little bit as he gets older and they don’t really have good depth here. Before getting hurt against New England, Smith sat out just 56 snaps in 13 games and once he returned, he sat out just 20 snaps in 3 games despite playing with a torn triceps. He’ll also be a 34 year old in a contract year in 2013. Depth is needed, but a long term successor could also be looked at. Look for them to bring in at least one, maybe two young defensive linemen this off-season.

Rush Linebacker

Here’s another position where they completely lack depth. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks are great outside linebackers in the 49ers’ 3-4 scheme, but if either of them were to get hurt, they’d be in serious trouble. They clearly don’t trust their depth as reserves played a combined 78 snaps for them at that position this year. They don’t have very many pressing needs, so they can once again use their early picks on depth and they desperately need depth at that position for insurance and to give those two a little bit more of a breather. Parys Haralson is technically still on the roster, but owed 2.57 million in 2013 after missing an entire year with a torn triceps, they probably won’t see it worth it to bring him back purely as a depth player.

Wide Receiver

After tearing his ACL in December, Mario Manningham’s status for 2013 is definitely up in the air. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.85 million in 2013, the 49ers may decide it’s better to just cut him than to deal with the headache. A half year of Manningham is not worth that much money. Randy Moss is also a free agent and he’s heading into his age 36 season anyway. He may not be welcomed back. They still have high hopes for AJ Jenkins even though he didn’t see the field much as a rookie, but they could use some more depth here.

Cornerback

This isn’t an overreaction to Chris Culliver’s horrible Super Bowl (and Super Bowl week). He played solid overall this year, but the 49ers use a lot of sub packages, so extra defensive back depth is not a bad thing. Perrish Cox really struggled when he did see the field this season. Besides, Carlos Rogers turns 32 in July. He should be safe for 2013, but owed 13.5 million in 2014 and 2015 combined, he might only have one more year on the roster. Cornerbacks take a while to develop anyway so they could use a mid-round selection on a developmental cornerback and ease him in.

Kicker

David Akers is coming off a miserable year, hitting just 33 of 47 field goals, including just 9 of 19 from 40+. 2013 will be his age 39 season so this is probably the end of his ride. The 49ers will need to bring in a new kicker this off-season.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl XLVII Pick

February 1, 2013 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I did a Super Bowl preview last week, which can be read here, and now I’m going to do an actual Super Bowl pick. For those of you who don’t want to read the whole preview now, here’s a little bit of a summary. The 49ers have been arguably the best team in the NFL throughout the entire season and certainly since Kaepernick took over midseason. However, the Ravens have played on the 49ers’ level over the past month, en route to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens are peaking at the right time. The 49ers have never really had a peak. They’ve been consistently very solid. That’s what makes this game so tough to pick. A month ago, I would have picked the 49ers to win easily, maybe even by double digits, but a lot of changed since then. Jim Caldwell has this offense clicking. Joe Flacco is on fire, thanks to part to Jim Caldwell and an improved offensive line. And the defense has played incredibly well due to Ray Lewis’ on the field leadership. I’ve gone back and forth with this one, so I’m going to put the argument for both teams before I make a final pick.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have a lot of history on their side. Underdogs have covered 8 of the last 11 Super Bowls, while the lower seed (if applicable) is 1-12 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1996. Teams that played in the Wild Card round are 7-0 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2002. There’s a simple explanation for that. In order to make it to the Super Bowl as a lower seeded underdog out of Wild Card weekend, you have to play really, really well. Teams like that tend to have a harder road to the Super Bowl than teams like the 49ers. They typically play more games, go on the road more often, and play higher seeds. As a result, they seem to be better prepared for the Super Bowl.

All of those are the case with the Ravens. They’ve played three games to the 49ers’ two. They’ve played two road games to the 49ers’ one. And they’ve been underdogs twice (touchdown plus underdogs in fact), while the 49ers have yet to be underdogs. In order to get to this point, they’ve had to play better than the 49ers have and that seems to be a good predictor of Super Bowl.

An example of how they’ve played better recently than the 49ers is defensively. The 49ers had the better regular season defense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, allowing 71 fewer than the 12th ranked Ravens. However, dating back to their week 15 game against the Patriots, they’ve allowed 24.8 points per game defensively (excluding return touchdowns), coinciding with Justin Smith’s injury and Aldon Smith’s definitely related sack drought.

They aren’t getting much pressure on the quarterback and, while their secondary ranked 2nd in the NFL in YPA this season, good quarterbacks who get time can throw on them. This isn’t 10 years ago when you could play good pass defense without getting pressure. It’s tough for defensive backs to win one on one for an extended period of time with all the new rules that have come into play.

They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. The Ravens’ defense, meanwhile, has allowed 14.3 points per game in their last 4 (excluding return touchdowns and a week 17 game in which their starters didn’t play). They’ve seen their fair share of tough quarterbacks as well, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and last week they held Tom Brady to 13, a quarterback who led his team to 34 points (despite 4 turnovers) against the 49ers in an eventual losing effort in that aforementioned week 15 game. If you compare how these teams looked against the only common opponent they’ve had recently, Baltimore clearly looks like the better team.

There’s also the whole story line factor with them: how they have come this far despite tragedy (death of Art Modell, Torrey Smith’s brother), injury (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs missed significant time, Lardarius Webb is out, while Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata have played through injuries), and struggles (they closed the season losing 4 of 5). There’s nothing scientific about this, but teams with the better story seem like they more often win this game.

San Francisco 49ers

On the other hand, while on paper it appears the Ravens have had to play better in the playoffs to get here, consider that the 49ers are coming from the vastly superior conference. Not a single AFC divisional winner beat an NFC playoff team this year (0-6). In fact, those 4 teams are a combined 8-8 against the NFC this year, as opposed to 39-9 against AFC teams. Overall, the AFC went 25-39 against the NFC this year. The NFC has been better for the last few years and has won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Beating the Broncos and Patriots on the road is impressive, but beating Atlanta in Atlanta and beating the Packers in San Francisco isn’t an easy path either. It’s not like last year when the Patriots just had to play the Broncos and Ravens at home.

Plus, while the Ravens are an underdog, they are a publicly backed underdog. This means two things. One, you’re not getting any line value with them really. They opened at +5, but so much action drove it down to +3.5. Two, I love fading publicly backed underdogs. Fading the public in general is smart when you need a tiebreaker between two sides because the public always loses money in the long run, but I especially like fading public underdogs because it creates a slighted favorite effect. Whenever everyone predicts an upset, it usually doesn’t happen (see Colts over Ravens, Bengals over Texans, Packers over 49ers, etc).

There’s a reason they’ve been favored. The Ravens may be playing better football right now (though that’s debatable when you consider the conferences these two teams come from), but there’s something to be said for the 49ers’ season long play. If they win this Super Bowl, there’s no debating they were this season’s best team, while if the Ravens win, you could still make arguments for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, and 49ers as the NFL’s best team based on their entire body of work. I know this isn’t the BCS. Championships aren’t decided like that and if the Ravens win, there’s no denying they’ll have won the Super Bowl, but you could argue that any of those 3 aforementioned teams had better overall years, especially the 49ers, regardless of the outcome of this game. They just didn’t (or hypothetically won’t have) when it really mattered.

Coming into the post-season, I had the 49ers behind the Packers, Broncos, and Patriots because I felt that in a post-season filled with inexperienced quarterbacks, the three who had won Super Bowls would have an obvious advantage. I questioned Kaepernick’s ability to win on the big stage, coming in with 7 regular season starts and I also questioned how their defense would play with Justin Smith limited. I was right about the latter, but definitely wrong about the former, which was probably the more important one.

In terms of pure talent, the 49ers had the best team this season. They led the NFL in Pro-Bowlers and if fans judgment isn’t your thing, they also led the NFL in All-Pros, as decided by writers, and had the top cumulative team rating on ProFootballFocus. Football is more than a contest of who has the most good players, obviously, as the Chiefs and their 6 Pro-Bowlers won 2 games. It’s a team game, but since the 49ers are in the Super Bowl, it’s safe to say they’re more than just a collection of great players. They’re a very, very good team, especially since Colin Kaepernick took over at quarterback.

The Verdict

This is tough. On paper, the 49ers are have clearly been the better team this season, but games aren’t played on paper. On paper, the Broncos and Patriots were clearly better teams than the Ravens too and they both lost because the Ravens have been playing at a much higher level over the past month and a half. I like to think that an elite team from the superior NFC conference would have better luck, which is why I’m ultimately taking the 49ers, but it’s definitely no sure thing. The game will probably come down to turnover margin, which is tough to predict. I am making this a significant play because it’s the Super Bowl, but any other week, this would be a 1 or 2 unit insignificant play.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) 3 units

Prop Bets

Ravens win by 1-6 +420 2 units

49ers win by 1-6 +310 2 units

I’ve done this in each of the past two years and it’s worked out. Basically, if the Ravens win by 1-6, you win +420 and lose -100, so +320. If the 49ers do so, you win +320 and lose -100, so +220. Essentially, you’re getting +270 will this game by decided by 6 or fewer points. 7 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by 6 or less and considering how hard of a time I had picking between these two teams, I say there’s a good chance this happens again.

Both teams won’t make a field goal longer than 33.5 yards -140 2 units

It sounds weird, but both teams have only done so in 10 of 46 Super Bowls. Also, 49er kicker David Akers has hit from 34+ in just 5 of his last 10 games.

Colin Kaepernick less than 43.5 rushing yards +130 1 unit

Don’t like this one was much as the others, but I feel like most people are probably going to take the over because they remember Kaepernick’s ridiculous game against Green Bay. I love fading the public and Kaepernick has only gone over this total in 3 of 9 starts. I know he could go over this at any point with one run, which is why it’s only one unit, but I do like this one.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Preview

January 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

Colin Kaepernick vs. Joe Flacco. That’s our Super Bowl quarterback matchup. In the era of the quarterback, that seems inconceivable. A guy with 9 career starts and…well Joe Flacco. In the last 20 years, there’s been one quarterback to win a Super Bowl without first making a Pro-Bowl and that was Eli Manning (version one), who made it the very next year. Even “game managers” like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson first made a Pro-Bowl. Neither ever really posted eye popping numbers, but no one really did back then. Pro-Bowl voting is obviously flawed, but the general public usually does a good job of picking the correct quarterbacks to go to Hawaii, considering how prominent the position and its stats are.

However, this year, we will have a 2nd quarterback win the Super Bowl without making a Pro-Bowl as neither Joe Flacco nor Colin Kaepernick has ever been elected to the Pro-Bowl and I don’t think either have ever deserved it. Kaepernick is playing great now, but he’s not even in his first full year as a starter, and while Flacco has generally been solid, but he’s easily overshadowed by many other quarterbacks in his 5 years in the league. Let’s take a look at why that happened and what each team winning the Super Bowl would, for lack of a better word, “mean” for historical purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

Of the two teams making the Super Bowl, this is obviously the least surprising. The 49ers earned a 1st round bye for the 2nd year in a row and were favored in each of their two playoff games up to this point, including by 4.5 on the road in Atlanta. I had the 49ers as a possible exception to the Pro-Bowl/Super Bowl “rule” heading into the playoffs and I’m not surprised at all they made it this far.

There are two reasons for that. One, while Kaepernick has never made a Pro-Bowl and never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, the reasons for that aren’t lack of production and elite quarterback play. It’s merely how long he’s been around. Kaepernick took over for the 49ers at quarterback more than halfway into the season, starting his first game week 11, and while he’s played at a Pro-Bowl level ever since, it has only been 9 games, including just 7 regular season games. That doesn’t earn players a trip to the Pro-Bowl, no matter how you play in those 7 games.

The 2nd reason is just how good this supporting cast is. They led the NFL in All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers and there is not a single weakness on this roster. They run the football among the best in the league, with Frank Gore leading the way, Colin Kaepernick scrambling or rolling out when applicable, and LaMichael James mixed in here and there.

They have by far the best run blocking offensive line in football and they hold their own in pass protection as well. While it’s true that they’ve allowed 41 sacks this year, 9th in the NFL, that’s more on Jim Harbaugh’s instance that quarterbacks wrap up and take the sack when they know they’ve lost, instead of trying to force it out.

In terms of pass block efficiency, which also takes into account hits and hurries, the 49ers rank a middle of the pack 17th. It’s just that Alex Smith was “worst” in the NFL, taking a sack on 33.3% of pressured drop backs. Kaepernick is much better in that regard because of his mobility, however, and since he took over, he’s taken just 18 sacks in 9 games.

Along with their offensive line and running game, they have two talented receivers in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Davis was invisible on the stat sheet up until last week, but that was just because Kaepernick was throwing so often to Crabtree, who was playing the best football of his career. They don’t pass the ball enough for both receivers to put up huge numbers. Even though he wasn’t appearing much on the stat sheet, Davis is still among the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

Defensively, you know the story. They’ve had the league’s #2 scoring defense in each of the last 2 seasons, though they did allow 3 more points per game in doing so this year than last year. Their front 7 is probably the best in football. All 4 of their linebackers are amongst the best in football at their respective positions, including Ahmad Brooks, who doesn’t post eye popping sack numbers, but is among the most consistent in the NFL at getting pressure and is also arguably one of the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL. And then, of course, there’s Justin Smith.

If there’s one flaw on this defense, it’s that you can throw on them. Their secondary played well this season, ranking 2nd in the league in YPA allowed, but we’ve seen several elite quarterbacks throw on them before and we’ve also seen some of the not quite elite guys throw on them as well lately. They haven’t been getting quite the kind of pressure they normally get on the quarterback with Justin Smith not playing 100%.

Aldon Smith has kind of faded away with Justin not commanding as many double teams in front of him and if you get time, you can throw on this secondary. It just hasn’t been an issue yet because of how well Kaepernick is playing, but they have allowed 24.8 points per game over their past 5, coinciding with Smith’s injury, not including a Kaepernick pick 6 and a special teams touchdown allowed to Seattle. They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. Still, this is the best supporting cast in football and that’s one of the biggest reasons why they are here, despite a lack of a “traditional” Pro-Bowl quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

While the 49ers being here isn’t surprising in the least, this is about the exact opposite. This was not a good regular season team. That’s just a fact. They went 10-6, which was tied for the worst record among playoff teams, and they easily could have been 8-8 if Ben Roethlisberger (or even Byron Leftwich) hadn’t gotten hurt and Ray Rice hadn’t converted 4th and 29.

They won a ridiculous 5 games by a field goal or less, now up to 6 after an overtime victory over the Broncos, and they outgained opponents by 20 yards in the regular season. They lost to Charlie Batch at home and fired their offensive coordinator in the same 2 week span. I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m willing to bet that no team has ever made the Super Bowl after doing that, at least until now.

The NFL is no stranger to seeing less than stellar regular season teams go all the way, as the 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants have all recently won Super Bowls with similar or worse records to the 2012 Ravens. However, when those teams have done it, we’ve always been able to look back at how they ended their regular season and say “that’s why they won, they had momentum.”

Unlike those 3 teams, who all had to fight to get into the playoffs and peaked at the right time because of it, the Ravens started this season 9-2, and a fraudulent 9-2 at that, doing it with smoke and mirrors and pulling out several crazy close victories. They appeared to peak early and proof right everyone who called that 9-2 record a fraud, losing 4 of their next 5 games, including two by exactly 3 points after starting 5-0 in games decided by 3 or less.

They weren’t hot heading into the post-season. They were the exact opposite. They tripped backwards into the playoffs. I guess you can point to a 33-14 week 16 victory over the Giants as a “sign of things to come,” but it was reasonable to believe that any momentum they had coming out of that game was lost when they rested starters the following week, in an eventual loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

All of this is fact. They weren’t a good regular season team. So what happened? Well, I think the takeaway from this whole thing is that sometimes less than stellar regular season teams get into the playoffs and it’s a completely new season. They started out with a home win over the overrated Colts, but after back-to-back road wins in Denver and New England as underdog of more than a touchdown, they’re clearly a much improved team.

Ray Lewis’ return obviously has a lot to do with that. Lewis himself isn’t even playing that well. Sure, he leads the post-season with 44 tackles in 3 games, which sounds like he’s playing well, but when you consider that just 9 of those tackles have gone for a “stop,” it’s not so impressive (a stop is defined as a tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th). He’s also had significant issues in coverage, allowing 15 catches on 19 attempts for 178 yards.

However, it’s Lewis’ intangible effect. He’s the signal caller and the emotional leader. That’s why this defense is playing so well. 12th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring in the regular season, the Ravens have allowed 43 points (excluding 2 special teams touchdowns) in 3 games, despite facing Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning and playing a double overtime game. Their forcing turnovers and tightening up in the red zone and they just made Tom Brady look as confused on a football field as I’ve seen him in years. Their defense is playing better than the 49ers’ right now.

But it hasn’t just been a defensive effort. They wouldn’t have gotten this far if it was. They’ve had good defenses before, but they still lost twice in the AFC Championship from 2008-2011. The limiting factor in those years was Joe Flacco. Despite going 5-4 in the post-season in his first 4 seasons in the league, breaking several NFL records, Joe Flacco never really had played well. It was always the defense. Coming into this post-season, Flacco had completed 134 of 247 (54.2%) for 1532 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his post-season career and had just 2 games of 200+ yards passing. He has 3 already this year and has completed 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 853 yards (9.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and not a single interception.

Already I mentioned the thing about Pro-Bowls and Super Bowls. Joe Flacco has never made a Pro-Bowl and he has never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, but none of that matters because right now he is playing like a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Lots of credit should be given to Joe Flacco, but lots of credit also has to be given to new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, who is calling plays at the NFL level for the first time in his life, and credit has to be given to the Ravens for making the switch at offensive coordinator and canning Cam Cameron. That might have been the turning point of their season.

While the 49ers made a ballsy move to bench Alex Smith, the Ravens did a similar thing at offensive coordinator and like the Smith/Kaepernick switch, it’s a big part of the reason why they’re here. We have a Super Bowl matchup between a team that has benched their starting quarterback and a team that has fired their offensive coordinator this season. Normally those are white flags. These two teams are here because of those moves.

If they were playing like they were 4 weeks ago, the Ravens wouldn’t have a chance against the 49ers on a neutral field. However, the Ravens have become a very complete team and dangerous team in the post-season and, for that reason, they will be able to compete with the 49ers, who are the NFL’s most complete team in general. I’ll have an actual pick closer to the game.

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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: NFC Conference Championship

January 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons

I’m going to do New England/Baltimore later in the week, but I had to lock this one in now because this line is ridiculous. Atlanta is 5 point home underdogs. Being a home underdog in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. Even being a home underdog as a #1 seed in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. But I can’t find a single case where a team was a home underdog by more than 4 points (a key number), regardless of seed (home dogs of 4+ are 7-3 ATS in the playoffs since 1989).

This is the 2nd largest home underdog Matt Ryan has ever been. He was a 6 point home dog last year against the Packers. That Packer team went on to go 15-1. The Falcons were 2.5 point home favorites last week for the Seahawks and won by 2. By the logic of this line, the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks. Uh…didn’t the Seahawks blow the 49ers out a few weeks ago?

I know that was in Seattle and the 49ers didn’t have Justin Smith, but when these teams met midseason in San Francisco and the 49ers were healthy, they were 7.5 point home favorites and won by 7, which suggests that the 49ers are only 5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field (and this game is in Atlanta). I know the 49ers are an improved team since then, but I think the Seahawks are an even more improved team since then.

I think on a neutral field, the 49ers are about 3 points better than the Seahawks (which would make this a pick em). The odds makers seemed to agree as the Seattle/San Francisco contest hovered around a pick em that week (2.5 point home field adjustment). And now the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks? 3 weeks after getting blown out by them? What? They were barely even 7 points better than them in San Francisco 3 months ago.

I don’t think the odds makers are dumb. In fact, quite the opposite. They know exactly what they’re doing. All the action is on San Francisco this week and I think this line could go even higher and that would be the case. No one is giving the Falcons a chance. The odds makers are setting themselves up for a big payday. They may or may not even help that happen. I’m no conspiracy theorist, but both the Patriots and Broncos had the majority of the borderline calls go against them last week and those were the two most heavily picked teams of the weekend. The odds makers actually had a rough year by their standards. Again, no conspiracy theorist, just stating some facts.

I actually give the Falcons plenty of chance to win. Colin Kaepernick had an amazing game last week, but he won’t have that type of game again. For one thing, I don’t know if anyone will ever have that type of game again. He was posting video game stats. But as well as he played, he was definitely helped by the Packers looking completely confused on defense all game. The 49ers purposely ran very little of the pistol in the final 2 weeks of the season to throw people off the scent for the playoffs and it worked like a charm.

At least last week it did. The Falcons will be better prepared, especially after having just faced a similar style offense the week before. They’ve also faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin once this year. They’ll be as prepared as can be for Kaepernick. Having the personnel to get the job done is a bit of a question, but they won’t be unprepared. And their run defense has been better of late.

You also have to remember that this is still Kaepernick’s first year as a starter. He won last week at home in huge fashion, but now he has to go on the road and play a quarterback that is now 33-6 at home in his career. That’s tough. He may also be a little overconfident after last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 after scoring 38 points or more in a postseason game. That includes plenty of veteran quarterbacks. It certainly doesn’t help that Kaepernick is this young.

I don’t love the Falcons to win or anything. But as long as this line is past both the key points of 3 and 4, I’m taking the points for a big play. It’s just not that easy and I mean that in two ways. Playoff football is not as easy as Kaepernick made it look last week and picking games against the spread is not as easy as this game makes it look to a lot of people. This is definitely a trap line. Think of some other playoff games where the public was so convinced one team would win that they put all their money on that team even as the line kept climbing to ridiculous heights. Super Bowl 42 comes to mind, as does Seattle/New Orleans a few years ago.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5 (-110) 5 units

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