Bears

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

I picked the Eagles to get a first round bye before the season and I have picked them every week this season, including Picks of the Week against the Chiefs, Redskins, and Cowboys. That’s because I’ve consistently thought they were underrated. It’s worked for me this far, as they are 8-2 ATS on the season. However, I am actually going to go against them this week because I think the lines have finally caught up with how good they are. I’ve also consistently thought the Bears have been underrated this season, picking them in 6 of 10 games (4-1-1 ATS in those 6 games).

The Bears are banged up defensively, with middle linebacker Danny Trevathan and outside linebacker Pernell McPhee not practicing on Friday and defensive end Akiem Hicks being limited, but they still have a solid defense. They also have an underrated offense, with a good offensive line, a strong running game, an improving receiving corps with 2nd round rookie tight end Adam Shaheen emerging and wide receiver Dontrelle Inman coming over from the Chargers, and #2 overall pick Mitch Trubisky improving as a starting quarterback. I have this line calculated at -13, so we’re getting 1 point of line value with the Bears at +14. It’s not enough to bet on them with any sort of confidence, but for pick ‘em pool purposes, they are the smarter choice.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +14

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (5-4) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Lions beat the Browns 38-24 in Detroit last week, but the game was a lot closer than the final score suggested. The Browns led 24-17 in the 3rd quarter, despite allowing a return touchdown earlier in the game and getting no points out of a goal line opportunity at the end of the half. The Browns then had another goal line opportunity in the 4th quarter and threw an interception. The Lions won the first down rate battle, but only by 3.15%. On the season, they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.05%, similar to last season, when they were -1.90%.

Despite being 5-4 this season and 9-7 last season, they aren’t that good of a team. Last season, they won 8 of 9 games by a touchdown or less and didn’t beat a single playoff team. This season, their margin of victory has been better, but that’s largely because they have a +7 turnover margin, tied for 3rd in the league. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year and week-to-week basis (the Lions were just -1 last season), so the Lions probably won’t be able to count on that going forward. Their strength of victory is also once again pretty unimpressive, as 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Cardinals, Giants, Packers, and Browns.

The Bears, meanwhile, have been underrated for most of the season (5-2-1 ATS through the first 8 games), until last week when they were strangely 6 point home favorites against the Packers. The Bears lost outright, though the loss came by 7 points and the game could have been a lot different had they not fumbled at the goal line in the 2nd quarter. Now the Bears are back to being a little underrated, as they are field goal home underdogs against the Lions this week.

The Bears are 3-0-1 ATS this season as home underdogs, with outright wins against the Steelers and Panthers, so they should be able to give the Lions a good game as well. Even if they end up losing, the field goal gives us enough cushion to be confident in the Bears, as close to 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less. I have this line calculated at even, despite the Bears likely missing middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, so we’re getting good line value with Chicago +3.

The Bears are in a tough spot with the Eagles on deck, as teams are 48-78 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, which the Bears will likely be in Philadelphia. Tough upcoming games tend to present a distraction for teams, though the Bears are in a must win spot at 3-6 so I’d be surprised if they didn’t give a good effort. The Lions, on the other hand, have a much tougher and more important game against the Vikings on deck and it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 61-95 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, as it’s understandably tough to be focused for an inferior opponent with another game right around the corner. I like the Bears a good amount this week as long as we get the full field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

Since losing Aaron Rodgers with a broken collarbone in the first quarter against the Vikings, the Packers have lost 3 straight games against the Vikings, Saints, and Lions, by an average of 11.7 points per game. As a result, the public has soured on them in a big way. This line has shifted from 3 in favor of the hometown Bears on the early line last week to 6 this week. About 30% of games are decided by 3-6 points, so that’s a huge shift. I typically disagree with significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and this situation is no different.

The Bears have a solid running game and defense, but they rank 24th in first down rate differential and 23rd in my roster rankings, so they shouldn’t be favored by 6 over anyone except the worst few teams in the league, which I don’t think the Packers are. In fact, I have these two teams about even. The Packers have issues in the passing game without Rodgers, but they still have the advantage in that area over the Bears because they have much better pass catchers and better pass protection.

The Bears are better in the run game and on defense, but the Packers have an underrated front 7, with 2nd year players Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez having breakout seasons, and the Bears could be without top linebacker Danny Trevathan. I don’t love betting on Brett Hundley, but this line is too high to pass on. The Bears are too offensively challenged to be trusted as favorites of this many points. Outside of their win over Carolina in which they had two defensive touchdowns, the Bears haven’t won by more than 6 points since week 13 of last season against the 49ers, who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Packers are worth a small bet.

Chicago Bears 16 Green Bay Packers 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +6

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)

I’ve taken the Bears in 5 of 7 games this season, as I’ve thought all season they were an underrated team. In those 5 games, they went 4-1 ATS, including straight up victories as underdogs against the Steelers, Ravens, and Panthers. They have an above average defense, an above average running game, and an above average offensive line and can give good teams problems. However, I think the public is starting to catch on following Chicago’s wins over the Ravens and Panthers in the past 2 weeks, two games in which they didn’t allow a single offensive touchdown, so I don’t know if you can call them underrated anymore.

This week they go to New Orleans to face the Saints, another team that has been underrated for a while. As a result of that and Chicago’s two recent wins, we’re not getting much value with the Bears this week, as they are 9.5 point underdogs on the road against one of the better teams in the league. The Saints offense is still about as good as it’s ever been, but their defense has taken a major step forward this season, led by defensive end Cameron Jordan and cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who are both playing at an All-Pro level.

The Bears managed just 5 first downs last week in their 17-3 win over the Panthers, as the defense provided 14 points on two returns and a big play by running back Tarik Cohen set-up a field goal for another 3. That 5 first down performance dropped them to 28th in first down rate at 30.55%. They’ll need to do much better than that this week, as they’re unlikely to be able to rely on huge plays and return touchdowns for points. In order to do that, they’ll need rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky to make some plays, after running a very conservative offense in his first 3 starts. I’m not sure if he’s capable of that, not necessarily because I don’t believe in his talent, but because he’s inexperienced and working with arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL. For that reason, I’m taking the Saints here at 9.5, but I would take the Bears at 10. That’s how close this is for me.

New Orleans Saints 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)

This line was -4.5 in favor of the Panthers in Chicago last week on the early line, but, in the past week, the Bears won in Baltimore in a game in which they didn’t allow an offensive touchdown and the Panthers lost at home to the Eagles and lost All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly with a concussion. The Panthers are expected to get center Ryan Kalil back for the first time since week 1, but fill-in Tyler Larsen was playing pretty well, so he won’t be a huge upgrade and Kuechly is irreplaceable on this defense.

Despite that, this line only moved from 4.5 to 3.5. I thought we were getting good line value at 4.5 on the early line, but the value is even better at 3.5 given the Kuechly injury. Without Kuechly, I only have the Panthers about 2.5 points better than the Bears in my rankings, so we’re getting serious line value with the hometown Bears, especially considering 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Bears are just 2-4, but they came close to beating both the Falcons and the Vikings. They have an above average defense, they run the ball well, and rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky gives their offense a higher ceiling, even if his receiving corps are a major problem. They should be able to keep this close at home against a banged up Carolina team they and have a decent chance to pull the upset straight up.

Chicago Bears 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: High

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens are 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bengals, the Browns, and the Raiders, who were without Derek Carr, right guard Gabe Jackson, and their top-2 cornerbacks. Meanwhile, their 2 losses (Jacksonville and Pittsburgh) came by a combined 58 points, giving them a -7 point differential on the season, despite the winning record and the easy schedule. They were alright to start the year, but have not been the same team since losing right guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams to injury. They rank just 22nd in first down rate differential, just one spot ahead of their opponents this week, the Chicago Bears.

I also have these two teams close in my roster rankings as well, with Chicago getting Danny Trevathan back from suspension this week, so we’re getting good line value with the Bears as 6.5 point underdogs. I have this line calculated at 3.5, as these two teams are much more similar than the general public realizes. I’m holding out for this line to go back to 7, where it briefly was at the beginning of the week, but the Bears are still worth a bet at 6.5. If this line jumps back to a full touchdown between now and game time, I’ll make this a higher confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Chicago Bears (1-3)

The Vikings have had some of the worst injury luck in the league over the past couple seasons and the injury bug struck again in last week’s loss to the Lions, when promising rookie running back Dalvin Cook tore his ACL, ending his season. The good news is they get quarterback Sam Bradford back from a 3-game absence with a bone bruise on his knee. The Vikings were incredibly cautious with Bradford, who has had two surgeries on that knee, so he’s probably close to 100% if they’re letting him play.

That’s bad news for the Bears, as Sam Bradford had arguably the best game of his career in week 1 before getting hurt. The Bears’ defense isn’t as bad as the defense of the New Orleans Saints, the Vikings’ week 1 opponent, but they’re not nearly as talented as they were when they entered the season, with middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, safety Quintin Demps, and outside linebacker Willie Young out for the season and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan suspended for this game for an illegal hit in last week’s loss to the Packers.

Bradford should have a good game against them, as he has been playing the best football of his career since arriving in Minnesota last year and he has an improved supporting cast around him in 2017, even with Dalvin Cook out. His top-2 receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, have both taken steps forward and the Vikings have better running backs and offensive linemen this season, after making several additions this off-season, including left tackle Riley Reiff, right tackle Mike Remmers, and new starting running back Latavius Murray.

The Vikings also have a strong defense, so if they can stay healthy, they could be one of the more complete teams in the league. Against a banged up Bears team with a first-time starting quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, the Vikings should be favored by more than 3 points. I have this line calculated at -6.5 in favor of the Vikings, so we’re getting good line value with an underrated Vikings team. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Vikings could get caught looking forward to Green Bay next week, but I still give them a good chance to cover both this week and likely next. This is a high confidence pick.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: High

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Typically, I love going against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This case is no different. The Packers were favored by 11.5 on the early line last week, but now are favored by just 4.5, a massive line movement. It’s not hard to understand why, as the Packers needed overtime to beat the winless Bengals, who entered as 7.5 point underdogs, while the Bears pulled out the overtime home victory over the previously undefeated Steelers, who entered the game as 7.5 point favorites. However, the line movement is still a major overreaction.

The Bears’ win was impressive, but it came against a Pittsburgh team that always plays down to the level of their competition in non-divisional road games. The Steelers are just 2-10 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 7 or more in the Ben Roethlisberger era and they lost 6 of those 12 games straight up. Winning in Lambeau, where the Packers are 28-15 ATS as favorites of 7 or more in the Aaron Rodgers era, is going to be a different test.

The Bengals nearly pulled it off last week, but that was because the Packers had so many injuries. They were without starting wide receiver Randall Cobb, stud left tackle David Bakhtiari, and arguably their two best defensive players, defensive end Mike Daniels and outside linebacker Nick Perry. They won’t get everyone back, as Bakhtiari is expected to be out again and right tackle Bryan Bulaga will join him on the sideline, but Cobb will play and Perry and Daniels sound like they have a good chance to be out there as well, which would be a huge help for this defense. Even with the Packers not at 100%, I have this line calculated at around 10, so we’re getting significant line value with the home team as a result of the undeserved line movement.

Making matters worse for the Bears, they have to make this trip to Lambeau on a short week. Home favorites are 73-51 ATS on Thursday Night, including 38-24 ATS as home favorites of 6+ points. The better team understandably tends to cover on Thursday Night if they’re at home and Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 ATS unsurprisingly at Lambeau on Thursday Night. On top of that, road teams are just 2-16 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game. The Packers are coming off of an overtime game too, but they’re the home team and teams are a slightly better 2-6 ATS at home on Thursday after an overtime game.

I don’t think the Bears are a terrible team, but expecting them to travel to Lambeau and keep it close on a short week after an overtime game is too much. It’ll help their preparation on a short week that they’re facing a familiar opponent, but this is still a daunting task. It’s worth at least a small bet on the Packers as touchdown favorites. If Daniels and Perry are both definitely playing and this line stays around where it currently is, I might bump this up to a high confidence pick before gametime. This is also my Survivor Pick (BUF, OAK, NE, GB).

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

NYG +3 @ TB

OAK +3 @ DEN

Thursday Update: Perry and Cobb are active for the Packers, but Mike Daniels is not, so I am leaving this as a medium conference pick. Daniels being out is also enough for me to switch my survivor pick, as there are two other good options later in the week (Atlanta vs. Buffalo and Seattle vs. Indianapolis).

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (0-2)

This is a classic Steelers trap game. The Steelers are just 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 4.5 or more in the Ben Roethlisberger era (since 2004). For whatever reason, this team always seems to play down to the level of their competition on the road outside of the division. That could easily happen again here. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, but this line is high enough for them to cover. They nearly beat the Falcons at home week 1, failing on 4 straight shots on the goal line at the end of the game in a 6-point loss. Something similar could easily happen here.

All that being said, I can’t be confident in the Bears because I hate the spot they are in. After this game, they have to turn around and play in Lambeau Field against the Packers in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That a daunting task even on a normal week. The Bears are expected to be double digit underdogs in that game and teams are 44-70 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as tough upcoming games tend to be a distraction for teams. Even if the Bears don’t end up being double digit underdogs, teams are 29-48 ATS since 2012 as 7+ point underdogs before being 7+ point underdogs again, which the Bears definitely will be. This is such a tough part of the schedule for the Bears that they could lose to the Steelers by double digits even if the Steelers don’t play all that well. The Bears are the pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7.5

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

Going into the season, the Bears were on my underrated list. They went 3-13 last season, but the framework of the team was much better than their record suggested, as they finished 13th in first down rate. Their record was largely the result of a 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league worst -20 turnover margin, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. The Bears were able to do that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, something that’s also pretty inconsistent on a year-to-year basis.

The Bears opened their season by nearly knocking off the defending NFC Champion Falcons, coming up short on 4 straight goal line plays to end the game. However, they continue to have injury issues. They get top cornerback Prince Amukamara back from a one game absence, which should help this defense, but they lost top receiver Kevin White and talented middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman for the season last week. Meanwhile, talented guard Kyle Long is likely to sit out again as he’s still not all the way back from off-season ankle surgery, while talented edge defender Pernell McPhee played just 2 snaps in the opener as he deals with knee problems. They still have a solid running game and defense, but their outlook does not look as good as it did a week ago.

The Bears are also in a tough spot here as they have to turn around and host the Steelers, who are one of the best teams in the league. The Bears are projected to be 6 point home underdogs on the early line and teams are 45-98 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5+ or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be a distraction for teams. On top of that, underdogs of 6+ like the Bears are 50-83 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. The Buccaneers are coming off of a week 1 Hurricane Irma bye week and are in a much better spot with Minnesota on deck. The Bears still have a good chance to make this another close game, but I can’t take them with any sort of confidence. I’ve flipped flopped on this one all week, so this is probably my lowest confidence pick of the week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Chicago Bears 21

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: None