Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season before Andy Dalton went down with an injury. Dalton is now healthy, but doesn’t have the same team around him. The Bengals lost 2 of Dalton’s top-3 wide receivers this off-season and also lost a pair of starters in the secondary. In addition, they had no next to injuries around Dalton last season, finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Not only does that mean they don’t have any key players returning from injury to give them a boost, as most teams do, but they’re already without tight end Tyler Eifert, linebacker Vontaze Burfict (suspended), first round pick cornerback William Jackson, and fourth round pick defensive tackle Andrew Billings. That puts them at a major disadvantage.

The Jets, meanwhile, actually finished last season with the best rate of moving the chains differential in the AFC, finishing 4th overall, but didn’t even make the playoffs at 10-6. Just one of their losses came by more than a touchdown, while 6 of their wins came by 13 or more, so they were definitely better than their record and could have easily won 11 or 12 games. However, like the Bengals, they may have missed their opportunity and seem due for a regression this season. This is a very veteran-laden team without much young talent, particularly on offense, so they’re unlikely to be as good as they were last season. I disagree with them being home underdogs here, even if only by 1.5 points, but I would need the full field goal to put any money on them.

New York Jets 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Andy Dalton was something of an annual pariah in his first 4 years in the league. Despite leading a team that was 4-12 when they drafted him to 4 straight playoff appearances, Dalton lost all 4 of those games, causing many to label him a choker and a player who is incapable of winning in the playoffs. Dalton has played poorly in those 4 games completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.53 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions, but the Bengals, but I think it’s unfair to judge his entire career in just 4 games, especially since they were tough games and three of them were on the road.

Largely an average quarterback through his first 4 seasons, Dalton was on his way to the best season of his career in 2015, completing 66.1% of his passes for 8.42 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 12 games, before missing the final 4 regular season games of the season and the Bengals’ playoff game with a broken thumb. He still finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked quarterback, easily his career best, but the Bengals lost a close one in the playoffs with backup quarterback AJ McCarron, their 5th straight season which has ended in the first round of the playoffs.

With Dalton playing as well as he was last season, they likely would have won that game with him. Even though he’s never won in the playoffs, he easily could have at least once. He’s just one of two quarterbacks all-time to be 0-4 all-time in the playoffs, but YA Tittle is the other one and he ended up in the Hall of Fame. Peyton Manning started 0-3. Evaluating a quarterback just off of post-season record is lazy. McCarron played surprisingly decent in relief of Dalton last season, completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.18 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but having Dalton back healthy will be big for the Bengals; before last season, he never had missed a game in his career. He might not be quite as good as he was in his best season to date in 2015, but he should still be a solid starter at the very least. They moved the chains at a 76.19% rate in the games Dalton started and finished and just 70.25% in their other games.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The problem is the Bengals aren’t nearly as good around the quarterback this season, thanks to several off-season losses on both sides of the ball. They had arguably their most talented team in years in 2015, but weren’t able to keep all of that talent in free agency. Wide receiver might have been the area they were hit hardest, as they lost #2 receiver Marvin Jones and #3 receiver Mohamed Sanu to free agency. Sanu was a mediocre player at best, but Jones will be missed, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 38th ranked wide receiver in 2015.

The Bengals also didn’t do a ton to replace them either, signing cheap veteran free agent wide receiver Brandon LaFell in free agency and drafting Pittsburgh’s Tyler Boyd in the 2nd round. They’ll compete for the starting job, replacing Jones. The most likely scenario to open the year is Brandon LaFell as the #2 receiver and Boyd working as the 3rd receiver, playing primarily on the slot, but LaFell isn’t very good so those roles could easily switch at some point during the season. LaFell has made 56 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 4 of those 6 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he ranked 118th out of 121 eligible wide receivers. Going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to improve going forward.

Making matters worse, the Bengals could be without starting tight end Tyler Eifert for up to the first month of the season. Eifert broke his foot at the end of May and was given a 3-4 month timeline, which puts his status for the week 1 opener very much in doubt. Complicating the matter is the fact that he’s been very injury prone through 3 years in his career, missing 19 games since the Bengals drafted him in the first round in 2013. In his absence, 2015 3rd round pick Tyler Kroft would be the starter, after struggling on 347 snaps as a rookie last season. Ryan Hewitt, a capable fullback versatile enough to play tight end, could also see snaps at the position. Both are steep dropoffs from Eifert.

After a nondescript first 2 seasons of his career, in which he played just 16 games combined, Eifert showed that first round talent in 2015, catching 52 passes for 615 yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games and finishing 3rd overall among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. He’s both a good pass catcher and a strong run blocker at 6-6 250. Injuries are the only thing stopping him from another strong year, but they very well could end up derailing his season. That would be a big hit for a Cincinnati team that already lost a lot this off-season and that barely had any injuries in 2015, outside of Dalton and Eifert. They finished with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in 2015 and, if history is any indication, they should be closer to the middle of the pack in 2016.

Outside of Dalton, AJ Green is the one guy who they can’t afford to lose to injury. He’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons in the league, but you never know and he’s an even bigger part of the offense with Jones and Sanu gone. Green was actually only 16th in the NFL in targets with 132 last year, turning them into 86 catches for 1297 yards and 10 touchdowns and finished 4th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He could see upwards of 150 in 2016, though his numbers might not get significantly better if he sees more double and triple teams. Still, he’s been a top-17 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons and has averaged 88 catches for 1274 yards and 10 touchdowns per season over that time period. He’s an obvious asset in a much weakened receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Not only did Green play the whole season last year, but they also had 4 starters on the offensive line play all 16 games at that same spot. The only one who didn’t was right tackle Andre Smith, who they didn’t miss when he was hurt because he was one of the worst right tackles in football. A free agent this off-season, Smith will be replaced by 2015 1st round pick Cedric Ogbuehi, who basically had a medical redshirt year in his first year in Cincinnati, after tearing his ACL during his season year at Texas A&M. He played just 73 snaps, but he’s now reportedly healthy and ready to start. He could struggle with growing pains early on, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Smith.

In addition to right tackle, center was a position of weakness upfront for the Bengals in 2015. Russell Bodine has made 32 starts at center in 2 seasons in the league, since the Bengals drafted him in the 4th round in 2014, but he’s largely played like a 4th round pick, grading out 33rd among 41 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus as a rookie and then 30th among 39 eligible in an equally disappointing 2nd year in the league in 2015. He could face competition for his job from Jake Fisher, a 2nd round pick from the same draft as Ogbuehi. A collegiate offensive tackle, he didn’t fill an obvious need, but many regarded him as a 1st round caliber talent and the Bengals found him too good to pass on.

He doesn’t have any experience at center, but he’s a talented player who doesn’t have an obvious role on the offensive line, so he’s been working out at all 5 spots this off-season and, barring injuries, center is his best shot at playing time. The athletic 6-6 306 pounder also played primarily tight end and fullback as a rookie, though he played just 135 snaps total. He’s likely to start the season as a versatile 6th offensive lineman and will likely continue to line up at tight end and fullback from time to time, but, if Bodine continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Fisher gets a shot at center. He’d also likely be the first one off the bench if injuries were to strike on the offensive line this season.

The rest of the offensive line was very strong last season, with left tackle Andrew Whitworth, left guard Clint Boling, and right guard Kevin Zeitler all having strong 16-game seasons in 2015. Whitworth was the best of the bunch, finishing the season 4th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, the 7th straight season in which he’s been ranked among the top-15 at the position; he’s made all but 2 starts over that time period. He could easily have another strong season in 2016, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so his age is becoming a concern. He’s also going into the final year of his contract so this could easily be his final season in Cincinnati or even in the league. If so, he’ll have spent 11 years in the league, all with the Bengals. His age, combined with Smith’s pending free agency, was the reason the Bengals doubled up on offensive tackles in the first two rounds in 2015 with Ogbuehi and Fisher. Expect Ogbuehi to play left tackle long-term, likely as soon as next season, with Fisher starting on the right side.

Boling and Zeitler, meanwhile, have been one of the best guard duos in the NFL over the past 4 seasons. A 2011 4th round pick, Boling took over as a starter at left guard in his 2nd year in the league in 2012 and has ranked 22nd, 18th, 19th, and 21st in the 4 seasons since then. Zeitler, meanwhile, was a 1st round pick in 2012 and a day 1 starter. He’s finished 12th, 27th, 9th, and 11th among guards in 4 years in the league. Going into his age 26 season and the final year of his rookie deal, the Bengals will likely try to sign him to an extension and may use the franchise tag to keep him off the open market if it comes to that. For now, he’s still part of an overall strong offensive line, though it’s not one without issues.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard also played all 16 games. Bernard, a 2013 2nd round pick, was locked up on a 3-year, 15.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. That’s a pretty reasonable price, considering Bernard has graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, including 24th in 2015. He’s turned 492 carries into 2105 yards and 12 touchdowns (4.28 YPC) and also added 148 catches for 1335 yards and 5 touchdowns as the Bengals’ primary passing down running back.

Jeremy Hill entered the following season, after the Bengals drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014. Both he and Bernard have had 200+ touches in each of the past 2 seasons, so the Bengals have big roles for both running backs and their skill sets complement each other very well. Hill is a big, bruising between the tackles runner at 6-1 235 who has just 42 catches in 32 career games, while the 5-9 205 pound Bernard is great in space, outside the tackles, and is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.

Hill had a strong rookie year, rushing for 1124 yards and 9 touchdowns on 222 carries (5.06 YPC). However, on almost exactly the same amount of carries the following season, he had over 300 yards fewer, rushing for 794 yards and 11 touchdowns, an average of 3.56 YPC on 223 carries. As a result, he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a promising young running back, only going into his 3rd year in the league, and a bounce back season in certainly possible, but a rough 2nd year in the league does put a damper on his future outlook. Still, it’s a solid running back duo.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

Not only did the Bengals have good health on offense, finishing with the fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league, they also had good health on defense, finishing with the 6th fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league. That kind of luck is unlikely to continue. One key player who was healthy all season in 2015 is defensive tackle Geno Atkins. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, finishing 3rd among defensive tackles in 2015. Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 2012, Atkins tore his ACL midway through the 2013 season and was not quite the same when he returned in 2014, falling to 20th at his position. His career seems to be back on track now though and, still only going into his age 28 season, should be dominant again in 2016. He’d obviously be a big loss if he were to get hurt again.

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap would also be a big loss if he went down, but he hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons. A 2010 2nd round pick, Dunlap is one of the most underrated defensive players in the NFL. He’s graded out above average in each of the 6 seasons he’s been in the league, including 5 straight top-15 seasons. He’s coming off of arguably the best season of his career in 2015, finishing 10th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus on 882 snaps. Only going into his age 27 season, Dunlap is one of the best bargains in the NFL, locked up for just 17.6 million over the next 3 seasons.

On the other side is another veteran, 7-year veteran Michael Johnson. A 2009 3rd round pick by the Bengals, Johnson graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career, but parlayed a strong 2012 season (14th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus) into a franchise tag in 2013 and then parlayed a strong season in 2013 (4th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus) into a 5-year, 43 million dollar contract from the Buccaneers prior to the 2014 season.

However, Johnson was horrible in one season in Tampa, got cut, signed a medium sized contract back with the Bengals last off-season, and then graded out below average for the 2nd straight season. In the process, he’s made 21.975 million in 2 years. Johnson is still only going into his age 29 season and has some bounce back potential, but it’s very concerning that he’s never played well outside of contract years and that he has overall graded out below average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league. He’ll be owed 4 million non-guaranteed in 2017, so this could easily be his final year in Cincinnati if he doesn’t turn it around.

At the very least, Johnson shouldn’t see the 848 regular season snaps he saw in 2015. In order for that to happen, the Bengals need at least one of Will Clarke and Margus Hunt to play a significant role. Clarke, 2014 3rd round pick, has played just 201 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, grading out below average in both seasons, while Hunt, a 2013 2nd round pick, has played just 408 snaps in 3 seasons in the league, grading out below average in all 3 seasons. Hunt was an old rookie and is already going into his age 29 season, so he can probably be written off, but Clarke hasn’t shown much more promise. He’s entering a make or break 3rd year in the league with a starting job likely opening in 2017 if Johnson’s let go.

The Bengals drafted Andrew Billings in the 4th round to be part of their defensive tackle rotation, but he’ll miss the entire season with a knee injury, so a pair of veterans, Domata Peko and Pat Sims, will compete for snaps at the position. Peko is the incumbent and has been for a while, making 139 starts in the last 9 seasons, but his effectiveness is long gone, going into his age 32 season. He’s been one of the worst starting defensive tackles in football over the past 3 seasons. Sims had some good years in the past as well, but has graded out below average in each of the past 2 seasons and was limited to just 180 snaps in 2015. It’s a solid defensive line led by Atkins and Dunlap, but they still have obvious issues and depth problems.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another player who bounced back from a serious injury on this Cincinnati defense is Vontaze Burfict. Unlike Atkins, who played in all 16 games, Burfict missed the first 6 games of the season, but was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 linebacker in the 11 games (playoffs included) after he returned. That’s huge because Burfict was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, but was limited to nondescript 223 snaps in 5 games by that knee injury in 2014. It was good to see him bounce back healthy last season.

Still only going into his age 26 season, Burfict should play well again, but the issue is he’s suspended for the first 3 games of the season for a dirty hit in the Bengals’ playoff game. The dirty hit also drew a personal foul penalty that arguably cost them the game. Burfict is a good player, but he’s had a dirty reputation since his collegiate days. The Bengals will probably be noticeably worse in the first few games of the season without Burfict and likely also without Eifert on offense.

In Burfict’s absence, the trio of Karlos Dansby, Rey Maualuga, and Vincent Rey will start at linebacker in the Bengals’ 4-3. Rey has led the Bengals in snaps played at linebacker in each of the past 2 seasons, but has been horrible in both seasons and has graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2010. He’s a liability. Dansby was an every down player in Cleveland last season and played significantly better than Rey, finishing 25th among linebackers in 16 starts. Dansby has graded out above average in 8 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, including 6 straight seasons in the top-13 among middle linebackers, but he’s going into his age 35 season and father time is undefeated. Another solid season would not be surprising, but neither would his abilities falling off of a cliff.

Maualuga is much better suited as a two-down base package linebacker at 6-2 255 and played just 622 snaps in 2015 as a result. He’s been wildly inconsistent in 7 years in the league, but has always been a capable run stopper, despite grading out below average in 4 of 7 seasons in the league. Youngsters Paul Dawson and Nick Vigil are also theoretically in the mix for snaps with Burfict suspended, but Dawson played just 35 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015 and Vigil is a 3rd round rookie this year.

Who plays where when Burfict returns is unclear, but Burfict will have an every down role and Dansby is the favorite for an every down role inside, with Maualuga playing only playing about half the snaps and coming off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages. Dansby has played primarily at middle linebacker in his career, so Maualuga could move back to outside linebacker, the position he played in the first 2 seasons of his career in 2009 and 2010. That leaves Rey as a reserve. It’s not a bad linebacking corps, but it has issues and Burfict’s suspension is significant, especially for a defense that hardly had any players miss time last season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In addition to off-season losses in the receiving corps, the Bengals also had off-season losses in the secondary, as veteran cornerback Leon Hall and veteran safety Reggie Nelson are both gone. Hall was Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked cornerback, while Nelson came in 9th among safeties. The Bengals used their first round pick on cornerback William Jackson, as a long-term replacement for Hall, but he tore his pectoral this off-season and will probably miss his entire rookie season. It’s not a huge loss for the Bengals in 2016 because Jackson likely would have started his rookie year as the 4th cornerback in a still deep group of cornerbacks, but it hurts his development.

Jackson is the 3rd cornerback the Bengals have drafted in the first round in the past 5 drafts and the Bengals also re-signed veteran cornerback Adam Jones to a 3-year, 22 million dollar deal. Jones was the best of the bunch in 2015, finishing 15th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, and could easily have another strong season in 2016, even going into his age 33 season. After being limited to 22 games from 2007-2011 by off-the-field problems, Jones has cleaned up his act and played in 62 of 64 possible games in the past 4 seasons, grading out above average in all 4 of them.

Dre Kirkpatrick, a 2012 1st round pick, was the other starter opposite Jones last season, but struggled mightily, finished 103rd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks. Despite being a high draft pick, Kirkpatrick was limited to 600 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league and has never graded out above average, so he’s largely been a bust to this point. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, this could easily be Kirkpatrick’s final year in Cincinnati, given that they just drafted another cornerback in the first round.

The Bengals also used a first round pick on a cornerback in 2014, taking Darqueze Dennard. Dennard has been limited to 252 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, but flashed in limited action in 2015 and looks poised for a larger role in his 3rd season in the league with Hall gone and Jackson injured. He could push the struggling Kirkpatrick for his starting job and figures to play opposite Kirkpatrick in sub packages regardless, with Jones shifting over to the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

Meanwhile at safety, the Bengals will be replacing Reggie Nelson internally with Shawn Williams. Given how well Nelson played last season, Williams is an obvious downgrade, but he did grade out above average on 474 snaps in 2015, after the 2013 3rd round pick barely played in his first 2 years in the league. He could easily take another step forward in his 4th year in the league and become a solid starter. The Bengals are banking on it, giving him a 4-year, 20.185 million dollar extension ahead of his rookie year, despite the fact that he has just 4 career starts, but he could just as easily prove to be overstretched in a larger role.

Fortunately, the Bengals did keep fellow free agent safety George Iloka, who returned to Cincinnati on a very reasonable 5-year, 30 million dollar deal. A 2012 5th round pick, Iloka didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but has made 44 out of a possible 48 starts in the past 3 seasons and has been a top-20 safety on Pro Football Focus in all three seasons; he came in 15th in 2015. It’s still a capable secondary, but, overall, it’s a defense that won’t be as good again in 2016 if they don’t stay as healthy as they did in 2015. It doesn’t look like a dominant group on paper.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Bengals had a chance to make a deep playoff run last season if Andy Dalton had been healthy. Dalton figures to be healthy this season, but the Bengals might have blown their best chance. They lost a lot of talent this off-season on both sides of the ball and figure to have significantly more injuries around the quarterback this season, after barely having any last season. They’ve already lost their 1st and 4th round pick for the season with injury, while Tyler Eifert and Vontaze Burfict are both expected to miss the start of the season with injury and suspension respectively. They also lost offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to the Browns, where he’s now the head coach. He’s a talented offensive mind who helped Dalton have the best season of his career. He’ll be missed for sure. It’ll be a battle for them to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

This is the game that I have the least strong opinion on. The Bengals rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Steelers rank 9th, but the Steelers have been far better offensively in the 12 games where Ben Roethlisberger has led them in pass attempts, as opposed to their other 4 games when he was hurt. In those 12 games, they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in those other 4 games. On the flip side, the Bengals will be without starting quarterback Andy Dalton for essentially the 5th straight game, as he went down with a broken thumb early in the Bengals’ week 14 home loss to the these Steelers. In their last 4 games, they’ve moved the chains at a mere 70.25% rate, as opposed to 76.19% through their first 12 games.

This line would have seemed too high if it was a field goal because the Bengals are essentially at full strength aside from Dalton and have arguably the most talented roster in football top to bottom. However, at 2.5, I’m going to take the Steelers. I have Pittsburgh winning by a field goal exactly. AJ McCarron is just too limited of a quarterback to be picked to beat a strong team like the Steelers, as talented as his supporting cast here. The Steelers, with Roethlisberger, have one of the best offenses in football and their defense is solid. It’s a no confidence pick though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in a good spot because divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Ravens lost as home favorites against the Bengals earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Bengals are in a tough spot, as teams are 81-105 ATS since 1989 off of a road loss in overtime, 60-85 ATS if we exclude teams that were road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games the following week. The Bengals lost by a field goal in Denver last week.

On the other hand, the Ravens are in a bad spot, coming off of a huge upset victory at home over the Steelers as 10.5 point underdogs. That was an impressive victory, but teams are 46-72 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs and 50-70 ATS since 1989 off of a win as double digit underdogs. They could be overconfident after winning their Super Bowl last week and get caught off guard by the Bengals this week.

We’re also not really getting any line value with either side. The Bengals come in at 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 26th for the Ravens, which suggests that the Bengals should be favored by more than the 9.5 points they’re currently favored by. However, the Bengals are still without quarterback Andy Dalton. Backup quarterback AJ McCarron has been serviceable and has been able to put up decent production because of a strong supporting cast. The Bengals also get safety George Iloka and tight end Tyler Eifert, key players, back from injury. It’s tough to lay this many points with them with any sort of confidence though, especially since both teams are in bad spots. In fact, I’m going to go the other way and take a Baltimore team that has lost just twice by more than 8 points all season, though I can’t be confident because the Bengals are talented enough to make that three times.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Baltimore Ravens 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +9.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4)

The Brock Osweiler era got off to a good start in Denver, but his play has regressed in recent weeks, to the point where the difference in their offense’s efficiency between Osweiler starting and when a hobbled, aged Peyton Manning was starting early in the year is no longer significant. In Manning’s 9 starts, they moved the chains at a 66.43% rate, as opposed to 67.86% in Osweiler’s 5 starts. The Broncos would probably like to give Manning another shot and see if maybe he has enough left in the tank for a playoff run after a month off, but it doesn’t sound like his foot is anywhere near healthy enough for him to play, so it’ll be Osweiler again for the Broncos this week.

Ultimately, it might not matter who is under center because neither one of them is that good, plus their issues on the offensive line and in the running game will persist regardless. The Broncos’ defense will have to keep carrying them, as they have thus far. Despite an offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains, the Broncos rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a defense that ranks 3rd in rate of moving the chains allowed.

The Bengals rank significantly higher overall, coming in 5th, but they’ve also had next to no injuries on the season up until the last few weeks. Now they’re missing quarterback Andy Dalton, tight end Tyler Eifert, and safety George Iloka, three key players who are all expected to be out again this week. The Bengals did win by 10 in San Francisco last week without that trio, but the 49ers are the worst team in the NFL and the Bengals only won the rate of moving the chains differential by 3.14%, as the 49ers did end up making it closer than the final score suggested.

It’s tough to really know how much worse the Bengals are without that trio, which makes this game tough to pick either way, especially since both teams should be equally focused with easy games on deck for both (Cincinnati hosts Baltimore week 17 and the Broncos host the Raiders). I’m going to take the 3.5 points for a no confidence pick because a field goal game is likely. Close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and close to 1 in 4 are decided by a field goal or less.

Denver Broncos 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-9)

The 49ers are the worst team in rate of moving the chains differential by a mile, coming in at -11.92%, while no one else is worse than -7.14%. That was on display last week, as they lost 24-10 in Cleveland, against a terrible Browns team. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 4th, but they’re also been remarkably injury free this season. Now they’re missing quarterback Andy Dalton, tight end Tyler Eifert, and safety George Iloka, three key players. The biggest injury is Dalton’s, as he was playing at a high level, the best football of his career, and backup AJ McCarron is a 2014 6th round pick who has never made a start and who struggled in relief of Dalton last week against the Steelers.

That being said, McCarron could definitely be better now with a full week of practice with the first team to prepare, against a much easier defense. The Bengals are still favored by 6 points on the road, as the line shifted just 1 point in the past week to compensate for the injuries, largely because of the 49ers’ embarrassing performance in Cleveland. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, as a result of that, but I don’t have a problem laying 6 points with the Bengals. McCarron has a great supporting cast still and the 49ers are awful. The 49ers are also in a tough spot, as the early line has them as 7 point underdogs in Detroit next week. Teams are 42-67 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. I’m not going to put money on the Bengals, because it’s really hard to trust a first time starting quarterback, because the public is all over the Bengals, and because the 49ers have been decent at home this season (4-2 ATS), but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 San Francisco 49ers 9

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)

The Steelers had a big week last week. Not only did they big win, 45-10, over a competent Indianapolis team, but the Seattle Seahawks won big (38-7) on the road in Minnesota, against a solid Vikings team, so the Steelers’ loss the week before to the Seahawks looks a lot better now. The Steelers have been playing much better football since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury. They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and have moved the chains at a 75.65% rate in the 8 games Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their 4 games without Roethlisberger.

However, I feel like this line is getting too carried away, with the Steelers as mere 2.5 point favorites in Cincinnati. That’s significant because about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly and it means that the Steelers are seen as the better of these two teams. That seems to overlook that the Bengals are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL (even missing cornerback Adam Jones), ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Steelers 16-10 in Pittsburgh a few weeks back and that was when Roethlisberger was healthy. This line seems to forget that. The Bengals are also in a great spot, as the early line has them favored by 7 in San Francisco next week. Teams are 31-14 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. The Bengals are 10-1-1 ATS on the season and seem to be getting undervalued here again. I’d put money on them winning by at least a field goal, as the better team, without an upcoming distraction.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9)

This line was a touchdown in favor of the visiting Bengals last week, but since has moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I think this line is still pretty appropriate, even with the Bengals missing tight end Tyler Eifert. The Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns are all the way down at 30th. They haven’t had many injuries this season and losing Eifert is very tough, but it’s hard to argue against this line being appropriate as long as it stays in single digits.

The Bengals are also in a good spot, hosting the Steelers next week, a game in which they could easily be 6+ point favorites. Favorites of 6+ or more, like the Bengals this week, are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. I don’t have any confidence in the Bengals and I’d switch my pick to the Browns if the line jumps to 10, as about 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and 10+ point underdogs are 54-32 ATS before being favorites (as the Browns will be when they host the 49ers next week) since 2002. I wouldn’t take either side with any confidence though.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)

The Bengals were favored by just 7 points in this game against the Rams on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, but I still don’t think this line is high enough. While the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, the Rams rank all the way down at 28th, so this is really a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best. The Bengals should be at least double digit favorites. The Rams have a strong defense, but their offense is easily the worst in the NFL as they have a below average starter at every position except for running back and arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. On top of that, they could be without defensive end Robert Quinn for the 3rd straight game. Their defense has unsurprisingly not been the same without him.

The Bengals are also in a way better spot, as they go to Cleveland to play the lowly Browns next week, while the Rams host the division leading Cardinals. The Bengals are expected to be favored by a touchdown in Cleveland, according to the early line, and teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+ and 47-25 ATS before being road favorites of 7+. On top of that, favorites of 6+ are 113-73 ATS before being favorites of 6+ again, since 2010.

Meanwhile, the Rams are expected to be home underdogs of 6 against the Cardinals, according to the early line. Teams are 41-86 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs and 6+ point underdogs are 73-101 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, over that same time period. Combining everything, 6+ point favorites are 36-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. While the Rams could definitely be distracted with a huge home game on deck, the Bengals have a very easy game on deck and should be completely focused to blow out a significantly inferior opponent this week.

The only thing the Rams have going for them is that they are in their 2nd straight road game, following their loss in Baltimore last week. Teams are 125-88 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 102-60 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 217-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.33 points per game, as opposed to 304-424 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. Still, as long as this line is single digits, I’m confident enough in Cincinnati to put money on them.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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