Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the Bengals, is pretty fair given the talent levels of these two teams. The Texans will probably be missing outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, but Cincinnati right tackle Andre Smith has yet to be cleared with a concussion. Assuming he’s out, those injuries would cancel out, so this line is pretty appropriate.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, with a trip to Arizona on deck, one of the toughest games of their season and one of the few games the Bengals have in which they will be underdogs. Favorites of 10+ are 54-71 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs the following week. The Texans, meanwhile, host the Jets, a game in which the Texans could be favored, following the Jets’ home loss to the Bills on Thursday Night. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. Even if the Texans are small underdogs in that one, the logic still holds. The Bengals have an upcoming distraction, while the Texans don’t. Despite that, the public is all over the Bengals. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m reasonably confident in the Texans.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +11

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)

The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t think that line is high enough, as the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns rank all the way down at 27. This is a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league and I don’t think this line quite reflects that. I have this line calculated at around 15.

That’s before we even get into these two teams’ respective injury situations. The Bengals have a couple of starters who will likely miss this game because of injury, linebacker Rey Maualuga and right tackle Andre Smith, but the Browns will likely be missing quarterback Josh McCown, wide receiver Brian Hartline, wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, cornerback Joe Haden, and safety Donte Whitner. On their own, none of those injuries are too damaging to this team (Haden and Whitner are having down years), but they all add up. The biggest one might be the one to their quarterback McCown. McCown isn’t very good, but Manziel is probably even worse and the task of preparing for a team like the Bengals, on the road, on a short week when you’ve had very little practice time with the first team is borderline impossible, especially with some receivers also missing with injury.

The Bengals are also in a great spot with no upcoming distractions on the horizon, hosting the Texans next week. The Browns, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals will undoubtedly be favored by 6+ again, while the Browns undoubtedly will be underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are 77-39 ATS since 2012 as favorites of 6+ about being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 40-63 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, teams are 35-13 ATS as favorites of 6+ before being favorites of 6+ when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week, since 2010. There’s just too much for the Browns to overcome this week and, without a ton of public money on Cincinnati, I’m really confident in the Bengals as 10 point favorites. There are a few other lines I really like this week, but this one is definitely up there.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10

Confidence: High

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers get a huge boost this week, getting Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, and it comes at a perfect time, with the undefeated Bengals coming to town. The Steelers moved the chains at an 81.25% rate in the first 2 games of the season, before Roethlisberger went down midway through week 3, and have moved the chains at a 65.19% rate in 5 games since. Both Michael Vick and Landry Jones were major downgrades from Roethlisberger, who was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback before going down.

Roethlisberger’s supporting cast is also even better than it was in the first 2 weeks of the season. Running back Le’Veon Bell didn’t return from his suspension until week 3 (the game when Roethlisberger went down), while wide receiver Martavis Bryant didn’t return until week 6. Bell is arguably the best running back in the NFL, while Martavis Bryant is a talented 2nd year receiver who has played really well in the past 2 weeks. They’re still not at completely full strength, like they were for almost all of last season (when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains), as center Maurkice Pouncey is still out, but this is still one of the most talented offenses in the league. As long as Roethlisberger is close to as good as he was before getting hurt, the Steelers’ offense will be tough to stop this week.

The Bengals could easily be up to the challenge, as they’re one of the best teams in the league, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential. Unlike the Steelers, they’ve had next to no injuries this season. That’s been huge for them, after all the injuries they had last season. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, the last time they were healthy, and now they’re back up there, only with a better record. They also get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from injury for this one. It’s tough to know how much he’ll be able to contribute in his first game back from microfracture surgery, but he was one of the best linebackers in the league before he got hurt, so his return is notable.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, as they have to turn around and play Cleveland on a short week next week. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Cleveland isn’t that tough of an opponent, but neither is the Steelers’ upcoming opponent, the Oakland Raiders, and they don’t have to play them on a short week. I’m also not sure the Bengals really deserve to be favored here, even if only by a point.

They’re obviously a very good team, but so are the Steelers now that Roethlisberger is healthy. Not only do they now have an explosive offense again, like they did last season, their defense is much improved. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but have ranked 13th thus far this season, picking up the slack for the offense, though having breakout 2nd year defensive end Stephon Tuitt out for this one hurts. Still, they have a very good chance to hand the Bengals their first loss of the season. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movements because they’re usually overreactions to one week of action and this line moved from Buffalo being favored by 1.5 to now being home underdogs of a field goal. That’s significant. However, I still like the Bengals this week, even with the public all over them. I think that line movement was legitimate and that it was a bad line in the first place. The 5-0 Bengals are a legitimate top contender, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to significantly improved health on both sides of the ball. The Bills, meanwhile, only rank 20th.

The other reason this line is legitimate is because the Bills are expected to be without Tyrod Taylor, who has been a huge boost to this offense this season, likely  forcing them to go back to EJ Manuel, who has never been good outside of the pre-season and who will be a big downgrade from Taylor. The Bills are getting healthier around the quarterback on offense, with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy coming back, though the latter has struggled with hamstring problems all year and might not be a big boost to a struggling running game. Their only good running back this season has been rookie Karlos Williams, who is once again out with a concussion. The Bills will miss him and Taylor in this one against what I mentioned is an almost completely healthy Bengals team.

It also helps the Bengals that they’re going into a bye and good teams tend to cover pretty easily going into a bye. I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Bengals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. The Bills, meanwhile, have the opposite of a bye on deck, as they have to pack up and go to London to face the Jaguars. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but when Taylor is officially ruled out (he’s listed as questionable, but no one is buying it), I’ll move it up to medium and put money on it, unless the line moves above 4.

Update: Taylor won’t be playing. I’d put money on Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-0)

Currently, the Bengals are projected to be 1.5 point underdogs in Buffalo next week, according to the early line. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are projected to be 7.5 point favorites at home for Carolina next week.  Favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, so the Bengals are technically in a bad spot this week. On top of that, this line shifted from the Seahawks being favored by 2.5 points to Cincinnati being favored by a field goal in one week and I typically love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re usually the result of overreaction to one week.

All of that being said, I think the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL and should be able to win this game at home, which could easily shift that line in Buffalo to favor Cincinnati and nullify that trend.  On top of that, I think that this line movement wasn’t an overreaction to one week, but was more the odds makers correcting themselves. The Bengals definitely didn’t deserve to ever be home underdogs to really anyone and even at a field goal, I think this line is too low.

Seattle is certainly not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their 2-2 record suggests, but the Bengals have played significantly better than the Seahawks this year, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think are the better team. That’s not what this line, at 3 in favor of the home team Cincinnati, suggests, but I think the Bengals should be able to win this one by a field goal or more and shift next week’s line, especially with Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch set to miss his 2nd straight week with injury and talented Cincinnati safety George Iloka expected to return from a 1 week absence. I’m not confident in the Bengals, but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)

The Chiefs are only 1-2, but they’ve had the misfortune of playing both the 3-0 Broncos and the 3-0 Packers. They could have easily beaten the Broncos and, while they lost in Green Bay last week, doing so is not that uncommon. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for the Chiefs as they have to go to Cincinnati this week and play another 3-0 team, the Bengals. However, I like the Chiefs’ chances much better this week than I did last week, for a number of reasons. The most obvious reason is that, while the Bengals have exceeded expectations through 3 games, going into Cincinnati is not nearly as hard as going into Green Bay and facing Aaron Rodgers. However, the Chiefs are also in a great spot.

While the Chiefs have one of their easiest, if not their easiest game of the season next week, hosting the Bears, against whom they are listed as 12 point favorites in the early line, the Bengals have one of their hardest and their most important games, as they host the Seattle Seahawks. Given that the Bengals are expected to be home underdogs next week, this is a great spot for the Chiefs. Road underdogs are 67-33 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs since 1989, including 20-7 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more points.

It also really helps the Chiefs that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-83 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-57 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-203 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.35 points per game, as opposed to 287-397 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.98 points per game.

This is my Pick of the Week, but I do have to admit that I’m usually more confident in my Pick of the Weeks. There just wasn’t an obvious line this week. The Chiefs are mere 4.5 point underdogs here. That’s sort of good news because it suggests that the odds makers might be trying to keep the line low to avoid big bets from sharps (and the public is barely on Cincinnati even still), but it doesn’t give me quite as much breathing room as I was expecting. Still it’s such a good spot for Kansas City and I think the effect of Kansas City having cornerback Sean Smith back from suspension and Cincinnati not having safety George Iloka with injury can’t be overlooked. I’m pretty confident I have the right side here.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick Against the Spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-2)

I had the Ravens winning 11 games, the AFC North, and making the playoffs coming into the season, after finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014. However, they have started the season 0-2. Losing in Denver was understandable, but their loss in Oakland was shocking. Their offense bounced back from an awful game against a tough Denver defense week 1, but the same defense that held the Broncos without a touchdown week 1 couldn’t stop the Raiders all game.

You can point to the loss of Terrell Suggs for the season late in the Denver game as a reason, but they still have a very talented defense around him. Losing Suggs (along with Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee this off-season) really hurts what was arguably the best front 7 in football last season, but they still have talented players like Elvis Dumervil, Brandon Williams, Timmy Jernigan, CJ Mosley, and Daryl Smith and they have a remade, improved, and healthy secondary behind them. Their defense should be much better than they were against Oakland this season and I still like the Ravens’ chances of competing for a playoff spot. They might be 0-2, but they could just as easily be 2-0 with two road wins right now. Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the year before are 18-9 ATS against the spread week 3 since 2002.

It definitely helps the Ravens that they are back home now, after starting the season with two road games. They are 47-11 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-36 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 0.97 points per game. They’re also 22-12 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period. However, they’re also in a bad spot, coming off of two road games to start their season. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989.

That trend is one of many reasons why I’m actually going against the Ravens this week, despite the fact that they’re a much better team at home and despite the fact that I still think this is going to be a playoff team. The Ravens are in an awful spot this week, with a Thursday Night trip to Pittsburgh on deck. The Ravens will try to be 100% focused for this game, given that they’re 0-2 and playing a good divisional rival, but it might just not be possible. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense.

Meanwhile, the Bengals host Kansas City next week in a game in which they will almost definitely be favored. Road underdogs are 104-61 ATS since 2008 before being home favorites when their opponent will next be a home favorite. Combining that trend and the aforementioned trend, teams are 5-26 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The fact that the Ravens play on Thursday Night next week makes things even tougher for them, as teams are 41-62 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

On top of all of that, it’s not like the Ravens are playing a bad team here. Even though this is a home game and the Ravens are a good team, they’re no guarantee to bounce back, even before you consider all of those trends I’ve mentioned. Even if Baltimore ends up making the playoffs, the Bengals are probably still a better team than them. The Bengals actually rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential through 2 games.

It’s only 2 games, but they finished the 2013 season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and now they’re finally fully healthy again, after struggling with injuries last season. AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert are all healthy after missing significant time with injury last season and, defensively, Geno Atkins seems back to his old dominant self, now two years removed from the torn ACL. The Ravens are the banged up ones, missing not just Terrell Suggs, but also left tackle Eugene Monroe and wide receiver Breshad Perriman. Their depth is awful at both of those positions and their absences have been very noticeable thus far this season. I wish we were getting a field goal with the Bengals, but they’re the better team in the much better spot and that should be able to cancel out the fact that the Ravens are a strong home team.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +2.5

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

This is one of the toughest games of the week for me, but I’m going with the Chargers for two reasons. For one, I think San Diego is a little bit better. Going into the season, I had them as a 10-win playoff team with the Bengals just outside of the playoffs with 9 wins. Even though right guard DJ Fluker is out for this game with an ankle injury, the Chargers should still have fewer injuries on offense than they did last season, when they had the most offensive adjusted games lost to injury.

Their offensive line and running game are much improved and their receiving corps is more than equipped to deal with the loss of Eddie Royal in free agency and Antonio Gates to suspension, thanks to the addition of Steve Johnson, Danny Woodhead’s return from injury, and talented backup tight end Lardarius Green, all of whom had big games in San Diego’s 33-28 win over Detroit last week. Defensively, they still have major issues in the front 7, but they get Jason Verrett back from injury and have a strong trio of defensive backs in Brandon Flowers, Jason Verrett, and Eric Weddle.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, started off the season with a 33-13 victory in Oakland in a game that was 30-0 before garbage time. Their receiving corps is much healthier than last season, with AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and week 1 star Tyler Eifert all back from injury. They have a strong offensive line and will have a full season of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard working in tandem at running back, as they did so well to end last season. Andy Dalton might not be the best quarterback in the world, but this is his best offensive supporting cast.

Defensively, they add Michael Johnson to a defensive line that really needed it and should get a better season from Geno Atkins, who was one of the best defensive players in the game prior to a 2013 ACL tear, from which he’s now almost 24 months removed. They still have problems on the defensive line, in the linebacking corps, and in the secondary and they’ll be without talented linebacker Vontaze Burfict for at least the start of the season, but they’re a solid squad. It’s hard to pick a team between these two, but I like San Diego. The 2nd reason I’m going with the Chargers here is because the line has moved off of the key number of 3 to 3.5, so we’re not getting field goal protection with the Bengals anymore. I’m not confident, but the Chargers are my pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Oakland is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Cincinnati team.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: None

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