Last week: 10 (+0)
Record: 7-4
Week 11 Studs
LT Andrew Whitworth
LOLB Vontaze Burfict
FS Reggie Nelson
Week 11 Duds
QB Andy Dalton
DT Brandon Thompson
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Bengals
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
The Bengals were riding high off of a 49-9 win over the Jets a couple of weeks ago, but after back-to-back road overtime losses, they have been knocked back down to Earth and people have given them the inconsistent label. I don’t think it’s so much inconsistency as home/road disparity. On the road, they lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost lost in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are still a dominant home team that has won all 4 of their home games, including two against New England and Green Bay and one by 40 against the Jets. At home, Andy Dalton completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. On the road, Andy Dalton completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Back at home, they should get back on track this week against an inferior team.
On the season, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 8.5. That matters because big home favorites usually take care of business going into their bye and it’s important to determine whether or not the Bengals deserve to be big home favorites. I think they do. Home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS since 2002. The thing I’m worried about is that they might not be the same team defensively without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall and that the Browns are a legitimately improved team offensively without Brandon Weeden under center.
The Bengals also might be tired off of back-to-back overtime games. Teams off of back-to-back overtime games surprisingly don’t have a poor record against the spread, going 17-19 ATS since 1989, but that’s not a huge sample size. Also, teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime and the Bengals are coming off of back-to-back road losses in overtime. They could just be so tired and unable to concentrate for the Browns this week. Also the Browns are in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. I’m still taking the Bengals to bounce back, but I’m not that confident. Cincinnati is my Survivor Pick this week though.
Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 17 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6
Confidence: Low
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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#10)
Last week: 10 (+0)
Record: 6-4
The Bengals aren’t the same team on the road, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost losing in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are a dominant home team that is undefeated at home this season in 4 games and 4 of their final 6 games are winnable home games (Baltimore, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota). Because of that, they can make it into the playoffs without winning another home game, thanks to two close road victory. They’ll be shaky in the playoffs though because I don’t trust Andy Dalton and because they aren’t the same team without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall.
Week 10 Studs
LOLB Vontaze Burfict
MLB Vincent Rey
DT Brandon Thompson
Week 10 Duds
QB Andy Dalton
TE Tyler Eifert
FS Reggie Nelson
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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#10)
Last week: 9 (-1)
Record: 6-3
The Bengals are undefeated at home, including impressive wins over the Patriots and the Packers. However, they just aren’t the same team on the road. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer.
Week 9 Studs
RB Giovani Bernard
ROLB James Harrison
Week 9 Duds
RT Andre Smith
C Kyle Cook
TE Jermaine Gresham
TE Tyler Eifert
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)
The Ravens lost last week in Cleveland, but they return home this week, where they’ve been much better over the past few years. Since 2010, they are 25-4 straight up at home, with 2 losses to the Steelers, a loss to the 2013 Packers, and a loss to the 2012 Broncos. They’ve been home underdogs just 4 times, covering in 3 (the Broncos game was the exception). The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. Even if you don’t take into account the Ravens’ home field advantage, I think that’s the case.
As bad as the Ravens have been this season, they still rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their strong defense is limiting opponents to a 68% rate, as opposed to 69% for their struggling offense. The Bengals are better, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but not enough to be favored. The Ravens are also in a good dynamic as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites. Teams are 55-40 ATS in this situation since 1989.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as at home. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. Last week’s overtime loss in Miami puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime. They are going to have a hard time concentrating this week after last week’s rough loss.
That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer. If the Ravens’ tough defense shuts them down in Baltimore, they’re going to have a very hard time winning, as bad as the Ravens’ offense is. The Ravens should pull the home upset here and stay in the running for a playoff spot.
Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +105
Pick against spread: Baltimore +2
Confidence: Medium
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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#9)
Last week: 9 (+0)
Record: 6-2
I still question Andy Dalton and I don’t know how much better he is than someone like Alex Smith, but he has so much talent around him, especially with Marvin Jones in the middle of a breakout season. They have a strong running back tandem, a solid receiving corps, and a strong offensive line. Defensively, they are very strong, particularly on the defensive line. They’d be higher on here if they hadn’t lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season and I question their back 7 without him, but you couldn’t tell he was gone in a 49-9 shelling of the Jets. They’re definitely in the mix in the AFC.
Week 8 Studs
QB Andy Dalton
WR Marvin Jones
RE Michael Johnson
LOLB Vontaze Burfict
CB Adam Jones
SS George Iloka
Week 8 Duds
None
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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)
I could go either way on this one. The Bengals had a huge offensive outburst last week, scoring 49 points. Ordinarily, teams are able to maintain that kind of momentum into their next week. Favorites are 27-17 ATS since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. However, they are just 14-11 ATS as road favorites. The line did shift a point and a half since last week as a result of the Bengals’ blowout and the public is still all over the Bengals, but it didn’t pass the key number of 3 and I don’t think the line is ridiculous or anything.
I don’t like we’re getting serious value with the Bengals or anything, but the Dolphins are still not as good as their record. They’re moving the chains at a 71% rate offensively as a result of a terrible offensive line, while their retooled defense isn’t living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. That differential is 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 11th in the NFL. I have the line calculated at about 3 or 3.5 in favor of Cincinnati. I have no confidence in either side, but I’ll take the Bengals as long as it’s below the key number of 3 and hope for a field goal game.
Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20
Pick against spread: Cincinnati -2.5
Confidence: None
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New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Both of these teams did similar things last week, winning close games as underdogs, the Bengals in Detroit and the Jets at home against the Patriots. However, the Bengals are in a bad spot this week because their close win came on the road and because they are now favorites. Home favorites are 25-52 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. The Jets lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago in this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are actually kind of in a good spot, as teams are 25-16 ATS as dogs off of an overtime home win as underdogs since 1989. It’s not a great trend, but it shows they won’t as flat as the Bengals easily could be.
I also think this line is a little off, as the Bengals are favored by 6.5 even though these teams have essentially played the same this season. The Jets are moving the chains at a 69% rate offensively, while their opponents are doing so at a 68% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74% rate offensively, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a rate that could get worse now that top cornerback Leon Hall is out for the season. This line is at least 3, if not 4 points too high and that doesn’t even take into account that the Bengals could be flat as big favorites off of last week’s win.
The only reason this isn’t a Pick of the Week is because the Jets might not be as focused as they’d need to be with a home game against the Saints next week, while the Bengals should be favored in Miami next week. As for the Jets, non-divisional road dogs are 80-111 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, for the Bengals, non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. However, they might not be favorites because the line is currently expected to be -1 and if they were to be dogs, that trend would switch to 61-84 ATS since 2008. They could also be distracted before a Thursday Night Game next week. Favorites are 26-51 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008. It’s a high confidence pick on the Jets.
Cincinnati Bengals 17 New York Jets 16
Pick against spread: NY Jets +6.5
Confidence: High
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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#9)
Last week: 10 (+1)
Record: 5-2
The Bengals’ needed to prove themselves on the road after losing in Cleveland and Chicago and almost losing in Buffalo. They did that with a close win in Detroit this week. They’ll need to avoid a letdown game, however. After beating Green Bay, they lost to Cleveland. After beating New England, they went to overtime in Buffalo. They’ll need to avoid losing to the Jets this week.
Week 7 Studs
QB Andy Dalton
WR AJ Green
RE Michael Johnson
LE Carlos Dunlap
Week 7 Duds
LG Clint Boling
RG Kevin Zeitler
TE Jermaine Gresham
CB Terence Newman
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Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
These two teams are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. They are 9th (Lions) and 10th (Bengals) in my Power Rankings. They have the same record (4-2). The Lions have outscored opponents by a few more points on the season (+22 vs. +10), but the Bengals have played a slightly tougher schedule, as the Lions’ opponents are a combined 3 games under .500, while the Bengals’ opponents are a combined 2 games above .500. The Bengals are slightly better in DVOA, about 5%, as they are 9th and the Lions are 12th. Both teams have had injuries to significant players who have since returned, Leon Hall, Michael Johnson, Andrew Whitworth and Reggie Nelson for the Bengals and Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for the Lions.
In terms or rate of moving the chains, they have very, very similar differentials, with the Bengals about 3/100ths of a percent better than the Lions. The Lions are doing it more with offense, moving the chains at a 77% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 74% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, have an offense that moves the chains at a 74% rate, but their defense holds opponents to a 71% rate. And to top it off, this line essentially suggests these two teams are exactly even with the Lions favored by 2.5 points at home.
The Bengals do have a trend on their side. Non-divisional road dogs are 95-61 ATS since 1989 before being non-divisional home favorites. With only a game against the Jets next on the schedule, the Bengals could be more focused than the Lions, who play the Cowboys next week. However, I’d actually go with the Lions if I had to take a side. I don’t like the way the Bengals have played on the road this season, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, and going to overtime in Buffalo. You couldn’t pay me to put money on either side though (well you probably could, but still).
Detroit Lions 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5
Confidence: None
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