Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Lions, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

These two teams are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. They are 9th (Lions) and 10th (Bengals) in my Power Rankings. They have the same record (4-2). The Lions have outscored opponents by a few more points on the season (+22 vs. +10), but the Bengals have played a slightly tougher schedule, as the Lions’ opponents are a combined 3 games under .500, while the Bengals’ opponents are a combined 2 games above .500. The Bengals are slightly better in DVOA, about 5%, as they are 9th and the Lions are 12th. Both teams have had injuries to significant players who have since returned, Leon Hall, Michael Johnson, Andrew Whitworth and Reggie Nelson for the Bengals and Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for the Lions.

In terms or rate of moving the chains, they have very, very similar differentials, with the Bengals about 3/100ths of a percent better than the Lions. The Lions are doing it more with offense, moving the chains at a 77% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 74% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, have an offense that moves the chains at a 74% rate, but their defense holds opponents to a 71% rate. And to top it off, this line essentially suggests these two teams are exactly even with the Lions favored by 2.5 points at home.

The Bengals do have a trend on their side. Non-divisional road dogs are 95-61 ATS since 1989 before being non-divisional home favorites. With only a game against the Jets next on the schedule, the Bengals could be more focused than the Lions, who play the Cowboys next week. However, I’d actually go with the Lions if I had to take a side. I don’t like the way the Bengals have played on the road this season, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, and going to overtime in Buffalo. You couldn’t pay me to put money on either side though (well you probably could, but still).

Detroit Lions 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 11 (+1)

Record: 4-2

First the Bengals beat the Packers. Then they lost to the Browns. Then they beat the Patriots. Then they beat the Bills. They seem to be having let down games after every big win. For that reason, we don’t really know that much about them, especially since they generally beat bad teams and lost to good teams in 2011 and 2012. My guess is they are the best team in their division, but the two games they play against Baltimore will decide that.

Week 6 Studs

RB Giovani Bernard

WR Marvin Jones

LT Andrew Whitworth

DT Geno Atkins

Week 6 Duds

TE Jermaine Gresham

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. This year, they’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots, who are probably playoff teams, but lost to the Browns. It’s very possible that they are just a better team this year, but they lost to the Browns because it was a “sandwich” game between the Packers game and Patriots game. However, this game could be a similar situation, in Buffalo as favorites of more than a touchdown plus, after last week’s big win. Of course, I’m not going to pretend to have a read on the Bengals, who I am 0-4-1 ATS when picking their games (46-25-1 ATS picking everyone else’s).

I also really hate to back the Bills this week, even as touchdown underdogs at home, given their quarterback situation. EJ Manuel is out for at least 6 weeks, so Thaddeus Lewis, signed off the practice squad, will start, after undrafted rookie backup Jeff Tuel went 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six in relief of Manuel last week. I don’t trust a practice squad quarterback who couldn’t even beat out Jeff Tuel for the backup job. Lewis has one career start under his belt, going 22 of 32 for 204 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in a 24-10 loss to the Steelers week 17 last year, as a member of the Browns, the Steelers’ only win in their last 8 games. Who’s to say this couldn’t be a close game late and Lewis throws a pick six for a front door cover?

If I had to pick a side though, it would be Buffalo. I feel this line shift (from Cincinnati -3.5 to Buffalo -7.5) is sufficient enough to adjust for Manuel’s absence. On top of that, the Bills are actually getting healthier on defense as Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore are expected to make their season debut in the secondary for the Bills. They return to a defense that has done a great job of stopping teams without much talent in their secondary. Opponents have moved the chains on just 70% of opportunities this season. The Bills’ defense could keep this a close defensive battle and cover the 7.5. Finally, home dogs of 7.5+ or more are 16-3 ATS since 2011. I’m not confident at all in the Bills though.

Cincinnati Bengals 13 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (+1)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. This year, they’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots, who are probably playoff teams, but lost to the Browns. It’s very possible that they are just a better team this year, but they lost to the Browns because it was a “sandwich” game between the Packers game and Patriots game. We’ll see how they play this week in Buffalo, in what could also be a “trap game.”

Week 5 Studs

RT Andre Smith

Week 5 Duds

TE Jermaine Gresham

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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. However, I think this is the most talented Bengals team of the three so when they beat the Packers, despite losing the turnover battle, I felt they had turned a corner and gotten their signature win. Of course, last week they turned around and got blown out by the Browns 17-6. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games).

The Patriots definitely look like a playoff team and the type of team the Bengals have ordinarily had trouble beating. If they play like they did against Green Bay, they can definitely win here though. The Patriots are lucky to be 4-0. They’ve had a very easy schedule and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. However, they’ve gotten better every week, culminating in a win in Atlanta last week in which they had a 99% chance of winning with 6 minutes left, before a failed onside kick recover gave them a scare late and got it within a touchdown. Kenbrell Thompkins has stepped up as a go to receiver for Tom Brady, alongside Julian Edelman. Brady’s week 4 performance, 20 of 31 for 316 yards and 2 scores, was by far his best of the season.

The Patriots have also been unlucky in terms of injuries and they will almost definitely only get healthier from here. Danny Amendola is expected to return this week to give Brady another weapon. The Bengals’ defense is better than the Falcons’ defense, but they’ll be without top cornerback Leon Hall again with injury so the Patriots could definitely put points up on the board. The Patriots do still have injuries though. Shane Vereen is still on injured reserve with designation to return. Rob Gronkowski is not expected back until next week so the Patriots still won’t get much from the tight end position, but they can spread things out with 3 wide receivers in Edelman, Thompkins, and Amendola. Stevan Ridley is also out, but Ridley hasn’t done anything this year that LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden can’t do.

The big blow for the Patriots was the loss of Vince Wilfork defensively. Wilfork tore his Achilles against Atlanta and is out for the season. The defense has been as good as it’s been in years for the Patriots thus far this year. They are allowing opponents to move the chains on 66% of opportunities, 3rd best in the NFL behind the Jets and Saints. They haven’t played a tough schedule of offenses, but they were 9th in opponent’s scoring last year with a young defense and presumably their defensive play could have translated to tougher opponents to an extent. Losing Wilfork hurts.

Not only is he the veteran leader of the defense, but they don’t have anyone else who can even come close to what he does. Wilfork doesn’t rush the passer, but he ties up blockers and is impossible to move. Defensive tackle is the Patriots’ thinnest position so now 2 of the Patriots’ top-3 defensive tackles are undrafted free agents, while the other is Tommy Kelly, an aged veteran who struggled in Oakland last year, but has thus far played well in New England. Still, the Patriots have plenty of solid defensive players, particularly in pass defense.

They should be able to take away AJ Green as much as you can, with Aqib Talib and bracket coverage and that will make life very tough for Andy Dalton, who looked terrible last week with Joe Haden blanketing his go to receiver. Dalton completed 23 of 42 for 206 yards and a pick. He could struggle once again this week and my gut says to go against Andy Dalton against a good team and that the Patriots are still a little underrated. I’m not confident at all though.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: New England PK

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (-5)

Record: 2-2

I thought the Bengals had finally broken through and gotten their signature win, beating the Packers despite losing the turnover battle, after going 1-11 against playoff teams in 2011 and 2012. However, last week they lose convincingly to the Browns. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games). We should know more about this team after a home game against the Patriots.

Week 4 Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth

RG Kevin Zeitler

DT Geno Atkins

Week 4 Duds

QB Andy Dalton

RE Michael Johnson

CB Adam Jones

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)

The Browns won last week in Minnesota, but they will find live a lot tougher this week against the Bengals. For one, they probably won’t be as successful if they try trick play again, like they did last week, when their punter threw an 11-yard touchdown and a special teamer had a 34 yard run. Take away that 34 yard run and a 22 yard run by Josh Gordon, they had just 47 rushing yards on 15 carries in their first week without Trent Richardson and that was against the Vikings. The Bengals run defense is much tougher and will make life very hard for the trio of Willis McGahee, Bobby Rainer, and Chris Ogbonnaya.

That’s going to make live tougher for Brian Hoyer, who was going to find live harder anyway against a Cincinnati pass defense that is much better than Minnesota’s. Hoyer had a solid week last week, but he also completed just 55.6% of his passes, averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and threw 3 interceptions so he’s hardly the Browns’ savior. Throughout his career, he’s completed just 58.0% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He’ll be overmatched against the Bengals, even with Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson expected out for the Bengals. Their front 7, particularly their defensive line, will help mask their absence.

The Bengals generally play well against bad teams in the Andy Dalton era, as they had an 18-4 record in 2011 and 2012 combined against non-playoff teams. They’re even better this year, coming off a statement win over the Packers, a likely playoff team. They were 1-11 against such teams in 2011 and 2012, but they beat the Packers despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams win just 17.9% of the time when losing the turnover battle by 2 historically.

I still think Andy Dalton is a limiting factor on this team, but his previous 1-11 record in 2011 and 2012 against eventual playoff teams doesn’t seem relevant at this point. His supporting cast is definitely good enough to mask his flaws, especially their defense. His supporting cast will make life easy for him this week against a weaker opponent. The Bengals should be able to establish their game plan easily against the Browns, as they usually do against weak opponents. This would be a higher confidence pick if the line were below the key numbers of 3 and 4, but I still feel pretty confident the Bengals get a big win here.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+8)

The Bengals’ win last week was the definition of a statement win. Not only did they beat the Packers, but they did it despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams win just 17.9% of the time when losing the turnover battle by 2 historically. I still think Andy Dalton is a limiting factor on this team, but his previous 1-11 record in 2011 and 2012 against eventual playoff teams doesn’t seem relevant at this point. His supporting cast is definitely good enough to mask his flaws, especially their defense. They leaped ahead of the Ravens, who are still unable to consistently move the chains offensively, in the AFC North in my mind this weekend.

Week 3 Studs

RE Michael Johnson

CB Leon Hall

Week 3 Duds

TE Jermaine Gresham

RG Kevin Zeitler

LOLB Vontaze Burfict

DT Geno Atkins

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Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Thus far this year, he’s lost to a borderline playoff team in Chicago and beat a maybe not even borderline playoff team in Pittsburgh. Against Chicago, he played better than he usually does against that caliber of opponent, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions, which is a big part of why they were unable to win.

Against Pittsburgh, still a tough defense regardless of whether or not they make the post-season this year, Dalton struggles, as he has against the Steelers throughout his career, completing 25 of 45 for 280 yards and a touchdown. He managed the game well and avoided the back breaking turnover that cost him in Chicago the week before, but he also missed open receivers and was very reliant on his receivers’ abilities after the catch.

Green Bay this week is a more clearly a playoff team than either of their first two opponents, which is relevant considering this line is less than 3. Green Bay essentially just needs to win here and I think they have a very good chance of doing so. The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them.

Cincinnati has a great defense and overall supporting cast, but that might only serve the Bengals to keep the Packers out of the 30s. They’re going to have to win a shootout if they’re going to win this game and I don’t think that’s something they’re capable of. Dalton is just 2-11 in his career when his defense allows 21 or more points, a situation teams, on average, win 26.8% of the time since Dalton came into the league in 2011. The Packers, meanwhile, have gone over 21 points in 62 of 74 games since the start of the 2009 season. The Packers should be able to take this one.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 17

The Bengals beat the Steelers this week, but I wasn’t that impressed by them, especially if Pittsburgh is really as bad as they’ve looked in the first two weeks of the season. It was a close game and I feel like the Steelers would have won if it were in Pittsburgh. Dalton continues to struggle against top level defenses, completing 25 of 45 for 280 yards and a touchdown. He managed the game well and avoided the back breaking turnover that cost him in Chicago the week before, but he also missed open receivers and was very reliant on his receivers’ abilities after the catch. Fortunately, the AFC North is as clear as mud right now so the Bengals could easily be a playoff team when all is said and done.

Week 2 Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth

LG Clint Boling

RE Michael Johnson

Week 2 Duds

TE Jermaine Gresham

LE Carlos Dunlap

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