Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers could be completely flat off of last week’s insane last second win in Kansas City. Favorites generally struggle off of close road wins as underdogs, going 27-51 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer as road favorites since 2002. However, they are only favored by 1 point and the Chargers probably won’t overlook the division leading Bengals when they need every win they can get to stay in the playoff race. The Chargers usually do well with must win games late in the season. They are 32-10 straight up during weeks 13-17 in the Philip Rivers era and, given that, it’s no surprise that they are 11-4 ATS in situations where they essentially need to just win, as underdogs or favorites of 3 or less.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They’ve lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore (3 of those losses came as favorites) and won by just a field goal in Buffalo and Detroit. All 6 of those teams have worse records than they do. They are 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. They’re also coming off of a fluky game in their last game, a home win over the Browns. In that game, they scored 41 points despite just 10 first downs, the first time in at least the last 25 years that a team had done that. They won’t be able to dominate the turnover battle, block 2 punts, and have multiple return touchdowns every week. Since 1989, teams are 16-34 ATS off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that scenario.

However, the Bengals have had a bye in between so maybe that will nullify some of that. I also don’t think they are overvalued. They are moving the chains at just a 72% rate, but their defense has held up despite injuries and opponents are moving the chains at a mere 68% rate. They may have some trouble with the Chargers’ explosive offense, which leads the NFL, moving the chains at an 82% rate, but, as good as the Chargers’ offense is, their defense might be equally bad, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate.

If Alex Smith and the Chiefs can have an explosive offensive performance against them, so can Andy Dalton and the Bengals, even on the road. The Chargers get into a lot of shootouts and this could be another one. I think this line is actually right where it should be with San Diego favored by just a point. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Philip Rivers and the Chargers at home in December over the Bengals on the road, but it could really go either way.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -1

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

The Bengals were riding high off of a 49-9 win over the Jets a couple of weeks ago, but after back-to-back road overtime losses, they have been knocked back down to Earth and people have given them the inconsistent label. I don’t think it’s so much inconsistency as home/road disparity. On the road, they lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost lost in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are still a dominant home team that has won all 4 of their home games, including two against New England and Green Bay and one by 40 against the Jets. At home, Andy Dalton completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. On the road, Andy Dalton completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Back at home, they should get back on track this week against an inferior team.

On the season, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 8.5. That matters because big home favorites usually take care of business going into their bye and it’s important to determine whether or not the Bengals deserve to be big home favorites. I think they do. Home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS since 2002. The thing I’m worried about is that they might not be the same team defensively without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall and that the Browns are a legitimately improved team offensively without Brandon Weeden under center.

The Bengals also might be tired off of back-to-back overtime games. Teams off of back-to-back overtime games surprisingly don’t have a poor record against the spread, going 17-19 ATS since 1989, but that’s not a huge sample size. Also, teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime and the Bengals are coming off of back-to-back road losses in overtime. They could just be so tired and unable to concentrate for the Browns this week. Also the Browns are in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. I’m still taking the Bengals to bounce back, but I’m not that confident. Cincinnati is my Survivor Pick this week though.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (+0)

Record: 6-4

The Bengals aren’t the same team on the road, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost losing in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are a dominant home team that is undefeated at home this season in 4 games and 4 of their final 6 games are winnable home games (Baltimore, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota). Because of that, they can make it into the playoffs without winning another home game, thanks to two close road victory. They’ll be shaky in the playoffs though because I don’t trust Andy Dalton and because they aren’t the same team without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall.

Week 10 Studs

LOLB Vontaze Burfict

MLB Vincent Rey

DT Brandon Thompson

Week 10 Duds

QB Andy Dalton

TE Tyler Eifert

FS Reggie Nelson

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 6-3

The Bengals are undefeated at home, including impressive wins over the Patriots and the Packers. However, they just aren’t the same team on the road. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer.

Week 9 Studs

RB Giovani Bernard

ROLB James Harrison

Week 9 Duds

RT Andre Smith

C Kyle Cook

TE Jermaine Gresham

TE Tyler Eifert

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

The Ravens lost last week in Cleveland, but they return home this week, where they’ve been much better over the past few years. Since 2010, they are 25-4 straight up at home, with 2 losses to the Steelers, a loss to the 2013 Packers, and a loss to the 2012 Broncos. They’ve been home underdogs just 4 times, covering in 3 (the Broncos game was the exception). The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. Even if you don’t take into account the Ravens’ home field advantage, I think that’s the case.

As bad as the Ravens have been this season, they still rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their strong defense is limiting opponents to a 68% rate, as opposed to 69% for their struggling offense. The Bengals are better, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but not enough to be favored. The Ravens are also in a good dynamic as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites. Teams are 55-40 ATS in this situation since 1989.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as at home. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. Last week’s overtime loss in Miami puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime. They are going to have a hard time concentrating this week after last week’s rough loss.

That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer. If the Ravens’ tough defense shuts them down in Baltimore, they’re going to have a very hard time winning, as bad as the Ravens’ offense is. The Ravens should pull the home upset here and stay in the running for a playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 6-2

I still question Andy Dalton and I don’t know how much better he is than someone like Alex Smith, but he has so much talent around him, especially with Marvin Jones in the middle of a breakout season. They have a strong running back tandem, a solid receiving corps, and a strong offensive line. Defensively, they are very strong, particularly on the defensive line. They’d be higher on here if they hadn’t lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season and I question their back 7 without him, but you couldn’t tell he was gone in a 49-9 shelling of the Jets. They’re definitely in the mix in the AFC.

Week 8 Studs

QB Andy Dalton

WR Marvin Jones

RE Michael Johnson

LOLB Vontaze Burfict

CB Adam Jones

SS George Iloka

Week 8 Duds

None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

I could go either way on this one. The Bengals had a huge offensive outburst last week, scoring 49 points. Ordinarily, teams are able to maintain that kind of momentum into their next week. Favorites are 27-17 ATS since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. However, they are just 14-11 ATS as road favorites. The line did shift a point and a half since last week as a result of the Bengals’ blowout and the public is still all over the Bengals, but it didn’t pass the key number of 3 and I don’t think the line is ridiculous or anything.

I don’t like we’re getting serious value with the Bengals or anything, but the Dolphins are still not as good as their record. They’re moving the chains at a 71% rate offensively as a result of a terrible offensive line, while their retooled defense isn’t living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. That differential is 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 11th in the NFL. I have the line calculated at about 3 or 3.5 in favor of Cincinnati. I have no confidence in either side, but I’ll take the Bengals as long as it’s below the key number of 3 and hope for a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

Both of these teams did similar things last week, winning close games as underdogs, the Bengals in Detroit and the Jets at home against the Patriots. However, the Bengals are in a bad spot this week because their close win came on the road and because they are now favorites.  Home favorites are 25-52 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. The Jets lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago in this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are actually kind of in a good spot, as teams are 25-16 ATS as dogs off of an overtime home win as underdogs since 1989. It’s not a great trend, but it shows they won’t as flat as the Bengals easily could be.

I also think this line is a little off, as the Bengals are favored by 6.5 even though these teams have essentially played the same this season. The Jets are moving the chains at a 69% rate offensively, while their opponents are doing so at a 68% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74% rate offensively, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a rate that could get worse now that top cornerback Leon Hall is out for the season. This line is at least 3, if not 4 points too high and that doesn’t even take into account that the Bengals could be flat as big favorites off of last week’s win.

The only reason this isn’t a Pick of the Week is because the Jets might not be as focused as they’d need to be with a home game against the Saints next week, while the Bengals should be favored in Miami next week. As for the Jets, non-divisional road dogs are 80-111 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, for the Bengals, non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. However, they might not be favorites because the line is currently expected to be -1 and if they were to be dogs, that trend would switch to 61-84 ATS since 2008. They could also be distracted before a Thursday Night Game next week. Favorites are 26-51 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008. It’s a high confidence pick on the Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: High

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (+1)

Record: 5-2

The Bengals’ needed to prove themselves on the road after losing in Cleveland and Chicago and almost losing in Buffalo. They did that with a close win in Detroit this week. They’ll need to avoid a letdown game, however. After beating Green Bay, they lost to Cleveland. After beating New England, they went to overtime in Buffalo. They’ll need to avoid losing to the Jets this week.

Week 7 Studs

QB Andy Dalton

WR AJ Green

RE Michael Johnson

LE Carlos Dunlap

Week 7 Duds

LG Clint Boling

RG Kevin Zeitler

TE Jermaine Gresham

CB Terence Newman

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