Bengals

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, NFL Picks

New York Jets (4-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-11)

The Bengals still have yet to win a game, but that actually makes them a good bet, as winless teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and desperate for their first win. In the past 30 years, winless teams are 57-32 ATS in week 9 or later. The Bengals have been in good some betting spots in recent weeks, facing a Ravens team that was in a sandwich game between matchups with the Patriots and Texans, then facing a Raiders team that was favored by 13 despite not winning a game by more than 8 all season, and then facing a Steelers team that was sandwiched between two emotional rivalry games with the Browns and that was missing its top running back and its top wide receiver. 

Despite those good spots, it’s been hard to be excited about betting on them with backup quarterback Ryan Finley under center, so I only made a small wager on them against the Raiders and then stayed off of them against the Ravens and Steelers. A fourth round rookie, Finley’s insertion into the starting lineup was not made to help this team to win games, but to evaluate the rookie in a lost season, before deciding whether or not to use their upcoming high draft pick on another quarterback. Incumbent quarterback Andy Dalton was having the worst statistical season of his career before being benched, but he also had easily the worst supporting cast of his career and was not the reason this team wasn’t winning games. 

Finley, who looked overmatched in the pre-season, continued that into the regular season, completing 47.1% of his passes for an average of 5.45 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, giving him a QB rating 17 points lower than Dalton. Finley also led this offense to a 3.73% lower first down rate than Dalton. After three starts, it seems the Bengals have seen all they need to see from Finley, as they’ve announced they’re going back to Dalton. 

With Dalton back under center, the Bengals become much more bettable. Despite their record and Finley’s horrendous play for 3 games, the Bengals don’t have the worst first down rate in the league, ranking 30th in the NFL at -6.01%. Of their 11 losses, 6 of them have come by 7 points or fewer, even including two of their three games with Finley under center (the exception was the Ravens, who haven’t played a close game against anyone in a couple months). That’s despite the fact that the Bengals have faced the toughest schedule in the NFL by DVOA. 

The Bengals are also relatively healthier now than they were earlier this season, with left tackle Cordy Glenn, defensive end Carlos Dunlap, defensive end Carl Lawson, and cornerback Darqueze Dennard all having missed significant time with injury earlier in the year. Even with Dalton re-inserted back into the starting lineup, this line has stayed put at Jets -3.5, the same line as last week on the early line. Part of that could be because the Jets blew out the Raiders last week, but even after that blowout victory this line opened at -4 before it was announced that Dalton would be starting, after which this line shifted just a half point. With Dalton under center, I have this line calculated at even, so we’re getting good line value with the Bengals as 3.5 point underdogs.

The Jets had an impressive performance last week against the Raiders, but that actually doesn’t bode well for their chances of covering this week, as teams tend to struggle after a blowout home victory as underdogs. Teams are just 27-52 ATS since 2002 after 17+ point win as home underdogs. After such a huge home victory, the Jets might not be totally focused for a winless opponent. If that happens, the Bengals could definitely pull the upset and get their first win of the season. The Bengals are my Pick of the Week at +3.5 (which I locked in earlier this week) and are still worth a bet at +3.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-10)

The Bengals are six games away from becoming the third team all-time to lose every game in a 16-game season. Ordinarily, winless teams tend to be good bets this late in the season, going 56-32 ATS in week 9 or later in the past 30 seasons, as they tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and hungry for a win. The Bengals have faced the toughest schedule in the league by DVOA and 5 of their 10 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. That being said, it’s hard to get excited about betting on the Bengals with fourth round rookie Ryan Finley under center.

When the Bengals benched Andy Dalton for Finley, it was not a move the Bengals made to give themselves a better chance of winning in 2019. In a lost season, it was all about giving Finley a chance before deciding whether or not to use their upcoming high draft pick on another quarterback. Dalton had the worst quarterback rating of his career before being benched, but he also had by far the worst supporting cast of his career. Even in a down statistical year for Dalton, his QB rating is 26.4 points higher than Finley’s and his YPA is 2.1 yards higher.

Even still, we’re getting some line value with the Bengals, as the Steelers are missing their top-2 offensive skill position players, running back James Conner and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Steelers have a solid defense, ranking 10th in first down rate allowed, but they haven’t been as good as they’ve appeared, as they’ve been overly reliant on takeaways (26, 2nd in the NFL), which are unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. The Steelers are also in a tough spot, with this game sandwiched between last week’s emotional rivalry game against the Browns and next week’s rematch. They might not bring their best effort for a 0-10 Bengals team. I wouldn’t bet on the Bengals, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 22 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +6.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals (0-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-4)

The Raiders are 5-4, but they haven’t played as well as that suggests. While their 5 wins have come by a combined 27 points, their 4 losses have come by a combined 59 points, giving them a -32 point differential that ranks 24th in the NFL. Their offense has played pretty well, ranking 12th in the NFL in first down rate at 37.43%, but their have the worst first down rate allowed at 41.81% and rank just 27th in first down rate differential at -4.38%. They rank a little higher in my roster rankings, coming in 20th, and they’ve faced a tough schedule (3rd in opponents DVOA), but any way you look at it the Raiders haven’t been as good as their record suggests.

The Bengals have also faced a tough schedule (1st in opponents DVOA) and, while they haven’t won a game, they haven’t necessarily been the worst team in the league this season. Despite their tough schedule, four of their nine losses have come by 6 points or fewer and they rank 29th in first down rate differential at -7.03%, obviously not good, but not the worst in the league. Winless teams tend to be good bets this late in the season anyway, going 55-32 ATS since 1989 in week 9 or later, as they tend to be overlooked and undervalued.

If Andy Dalton was still starting for the Bengals, they’d be an obvious bet as 11.5-point underdogs against a Raiders team that hasn’t won by more than 8 points all season, but we’re not getting enough line value to bet them confidently with fourth round rookie Ryan Finley under center. Dalton’s statistical production had been the worst of his career, but he also had the worst supporting cast of his career around him. Benching him was more about the Bengals wanting to evaluate Finley in an otherwise lost season than it was about Dalton’s performance and, while that may be the right move long-term, with the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback atop the draft in reach, it doesn’t help them cover this spread, as Finley is an unprepared backup caliber talent with a horrendous supporting cast. I have this line calculated at Cincinnati +10, so the Bengals are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s not enough here to bet the Bengals confidently. 

Sunday Update: This line has moved all the way up to 13, a massive jump from the early line last week, which had Oakland favored by 8. The Raiders haven’t won more by more than a touchdown all season and winless teams like the Bengals tend to be good bets this late in the season, so the Bengals are worth a small bet at +13.

Oakland Raiders 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +13

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)

If the Bengals hadn’t benched Andy Dalton, I would have been excited about betting them this week as double digit home underdogs against the Ravens. The Ravens got a huge win at home over the Patriots last week, but that actually works against their chances of covering this week, as teams are just 27-52 ATS since 2002 after 17+ point win as home underdogs. The last instance was the Titans falling flat 38-10 in Indianapolis a week after pulling a huge home upset over the Patriots. The Ravens played last week like it was their Super Bowl and will likely have a tough time getting up for a winless Bengals team, especially with another big game on deck against the Texans. Winless teams tend to be good bets this late in the season anyway, going 55-31 ATS in week 9 or later over the past 30 seasons, as winless teams tend to be undervalued and highly motivated to get their first win.

On top of that, as impressive as their win last week was, the Ravens have also won 3 games by a combined 15 points against 3 teams who are now a combined 7-17 (including a mere 6-point home victory over these Bengals) and they lost at home by 15 to a now 2-6 Browns team. If the Ravens don’t bring their a-game, this could easily be a close matchup. The Bengals are still missing AJ Green, but are healthier coming out of their bye than they’ve been for most of the season, with players like left tackle Cordy Glenn, defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson, and cornerbacks William Jackson and Darqueze Dennard all expected to play after missing varying amounts of time in the first half of the season.

Unfortunately, I can’t recommend a bet now that Dalton has been benched. Dalton’s statistical production has been arguably the worst of his career this season, but he’s also had the worst supporting cast he’s ever had around him. He was far from the problem for this winless team and benching him for 4th round rookie Ryan Finley is not a move the Bengals made to give themselves a better chance to win games this season. In a lost season, this is all about evaluating for the future, with the chance at drafting a franchise quarterback atop the draft very much in reach. The Bengals are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I have this line calculated at Baltimore -10 with Finley under center, so we’re not getting enough points to bet the Bengals confidently.

Update: Glenn is still out for the Bengals despite practicing in full all week. That doesn’t change my pick, however, as I still like the Bengals chances of keeping this relatively close with the Ravens in a bad spot, but not enough to bet on it.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +10.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Rams

Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-3) in London

Typically the rule of thumb in these international games is to pick the favorite, as they are 24-11 ATS all-time and it makes that sense better teams would be better prepared for playing under unusual circumstances. In this matchup, the Rams are clearly the better team, facing off against the winless Bengals, but unfortunately we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Rams in the past week. They were favored by 9.5 on the early line last week, but are now 12.5-point favorites and it’s not really clear why. 

The Bengals lost at home to the Jaguars last week, but that game was close throughout and they get their top cornerback William Jackson and top defensive end Carlos Dunlap back from injury this week. Meanwhile, the Rams won in Atlanta convincingly last week, but they still rank just 12th in first down rate differential on the season at +2.00%, as their offense has not nearly been the same this season with a rebuilt offensive line. 

The Rams obviously have the talent edge, but this line is the equivalent of Los Angeles -15.5 if this game were played in Los Angeles and -9.5 if it were played in Cincinnati, which I think is too high. I still have this line calculated at Rams -9, so I’m taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes, though this is a no confidence pick because they could easily get blown out or quit in the second half in a bad spot. 

Los Angeles Rams 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +12.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jaguars, NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)

A lot of teams are dealing with tough injury situations, but the Bengals might have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL. Already missing left tackle Cordy Glenn and #1 wide receiver AJ Green to begin the season, the Bengals are also without wide receiver John Ross, backup left tackle Andre Smith, right guard John Miller, their top two edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson, and starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson. With all of their absences, they are the worst team in the league outside of the Dolphins. 

However, I still think we’re getting some line value with them as 4-point home underdogs against the Jaguars. Ever since Minshew Mania went to the next level during the Jaguars’ week 3 victory over the Titans on Thursday Night Football, I have thought the Jaguars are overrated. Even with Gardner Minshew outperforming expectations, the Jaguars still rank just 24th in first down rate differential and he seems to be falling back to earth in recent weeks. The Jaguars rank just 26th in my roster rankings, so they shouldn’t be favored by this many points over anyone except the Dolphins. I have this line calculated at Jacksonville -2, so we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Bengals, even as banged up as they are. I wouldn’t recommend betting on them though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +4

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have been an overrated team all year, as the general public did not realize how much worse their defense has gotten since last year. During the off-season, they lost five of the 12 players who played at least 500 snaps for them in 2018, including key players like Za’Darius Smith, CJ Mosley, and Terrell Suggs, and then they lost another two due to injury, with cornerbacks Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith both out indefinitely. 

Things have gotten worse on defense with starting safety Tony Jefferson done for the year with a torn ACL, leaving cornerback Marlon Humphrey, cornerback Brandon Carr, edge defender Matt Judon, and defensive lineman Brandon Williams as the only four players who played 500+ snaps on last year’s dominant unit that are still on the team. As a result, their defense has gone from ranking 2nd in first down rate allowed at 32.65% to 26th at 38.63%.

Fortunately, the Ravens get an easy matchup this week as they face a bad Bengals team that is also missing some key players. Already without left tackle Cordy Glenn and #1 wide receiver AJ Green indefinitely, the Bengals will also be without backup left tackle Andre Smith and a pair of starting defensive linemen, Ryan Glasgow and Carlos Dunlap, the latter of whom is one of their best and most important players on either side of the ball. 

The Bengals haven’t won a game all year, including a loss last week at home to a previously winless Cardinals team, and are easily one of the worst few teams in the league right now. Even with the Ravens being overrated all year, I would say this line favoring them by 10.5 points over the Bengals at home is about right. In fact, I actually have this line calculated at Baltimore -12, so if anything we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Ravens. I’m taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes because the Ravens are in a look ahead spot with a trip to Seattle on deck (double digit favorites are 64-84 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs), but this is a no confidence pick either way.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +10.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)

The Bengals were favored by 4 points on the early line last week and, despite getting blown out on Monday Night Football by the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, they still briefly opened as 3.5-point favorites this week, before the line quickly dropped to 3. Even at 3, I was still considering betting on the Cardinals, as that line suggests these two teams are about even, which I didn’t quite agree with. Neither of these teams has a win, but the Cardinals have a better first down rate differential (-7.18% vs. -10.15%) and seem to be in a better spot, as the Bengals may not be fully focused against a winless non-conference opponent, 6 days after a blowout loss, and before a divisional rivalry game against the Ravens. However, then I saw the injury reports on Friday.

The Bengals have had terrible injury luck thus far this season and, while they’ll still be without several players, including #1 wide receiver AJ Green and left tackle Cordy Glenn, they do get back a pair of key contributors on the defensive line, Ryan Glasgow and Carl Lawson, while the Cardinals could be without starting wide receivers Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd, starting left guard Justin Pugh, starting cornerback Tramaine Brock, starter edge defender Terrell Suggs, and rotational defensive lineman Zach Allen. Only Allen and Kirk have been ruled out, but none of the others got in a full practice on Friday, so there’s too much certainty to bet the Cardinals right now. Depending on injury reports Sunday morning, I may decide to place a small bet on the Cardinals. They’re the pick for pick ‘em purposes regardless, as even if the Cardinals are without everyone I still have this line calculated at Cincinnati -3.

Sunday Update: Pugh, Brock, and Suggs are all playing for the Cardinals. I’m going to put a small bet on the Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3)

When the NFL scheduled this game on Monday Night Football, they probably thought they’d be getting a competitive early season matchup between two hated division rivals. Instead, they got the second Monday Night Football game in the past thirty years between a pair of teams that are 0-3 or worse. The other instance was a 9-7 victory by the 0-4 Cowboys over the 0-4 Redskins in week 5 of 2001. Both of these teams came into the season with expectations, but have been ravaged by injury. 

For the Bengals, the sheer amount of key players they are missing this early in the season is pretty incredible. They came into the season with major injury concerns, losing first round pick Jonah Williams for the season in June, losing long-time starting guard Clint Boling to an early retirement due to injury, and losing top wide receiver AJ Green, starting cornerback Darqueze Dennard, and top offensive lineman Cordy Glenn indefinitely with injuries suffered in training camp, and things have just gotten worse from there. In addition to the aforementioned players, the Bengals will also be without a pair of key rotational defensive linemen, defensive end Carl Lawson and defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow, who also missed last week loss in Buffalo.

The Steelers don’t have the sheer number of missing key players that the Bengals have, but they have the most impactful injury between these two teams, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Steelers are publicly confident in backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, who was a third round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t shown much to be confident in thus far, averaging just 6.22 yards per attempt and leading the Steelers to just 19 first downs and 4 touchdowns on 79 snaps on 18 drives, a first down rate of just 29.11%. For comparison, the Steelers had a 40.55% first down rate last season. The Steelers almost won their first game with Rudolph as the starter in San Francisco last week, but they ultimately lost, despite winning the turnover battle by 3. In terms of first down rate, they were -14.24% and that tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than turnover margin. 

Starting caliber quarterbacks rarely fall to the third round, so it’s not exactly a surprise that Rudolph has looked like a backup caliber player, especially this early in his career. As much as the Bengals are missing, they at least have a competent quarterback under center. The Steelers will also be without starting tight end Vance McDonald, rotational edge rusher Anthony Chickillo, and situational middle linebacker Vince Williams.

Despite that, I still have the Steelers as the slightly better team in my roster rankings, as they still have a pretty strong roster around the quarterback. This line, which favors the hometown Steelers by 3.5 points, is about right, so we aren’t getting much line value in either direction. The Bengals are my pick because they are in a better spot, hosting the Cardinals next week in a game in which they will likely be favored, while the Steelers host the Ravens in a game in which they will likely be underdogs. Underdogs are 100-56 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and even at 0-3 it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Steelers get caught looking forward to a bigger divisional game next week. They’re facing a fellow winless team and this could be a bit of a sandwich game between a close loss on the road and a big divisional home game. It’s not enough to bet the Bengals in the shape they are in, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

Earlier this week, I thought I would be betting on the Bengals in this one because the Bills are in an awful spot this week. They return home after playing their first two games of the season on the road, a situation teams typically struggle in (28-52 ATS in week 3 home openers since 1989). They could easily be tired from starting the year with back-to-back road games and not give their best effort at home against an 0-2 team. On top of that, they have to turn around and play one of their biggest games of the season next week, with the New England Patriots coming to town. The early line for that game has the Patriots favored by 6.5 points and teams are just 47-85 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 5+. On top of that, favorites of 6+ are just 33-62 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 6+ the following week. The Bengals seem unlikely to get the Bills’ best effort this week in this situation.

That being said, the Bengals could still have a lot of trouble covering the spread in this game because they are so banged up right now. I was expecting they might be healthier this week, but wide receiver AJ Green and left tackle Cordy Glenn remain out indefinitely and they will also be without a pair of key players, Ryan Glasgow and Carl Lawson, on the defensive line and their 3rd cornerback BW Webb with injury. In their current injury situation, the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league and, even though the Bills aren’t a great team, I still have them favored by a full touchdown in this game. The bad spot really hurts their chances of covering, so I’m still taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes, but even if the Bills don’t play their best it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win by at least a touchdown. 

Buffalo Bills 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +6

Confidence: Low