Bills

Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterbacks

For 17 seasons from 2000-2016, the Bills didn’t qualify for the post-season once, one of the longest post-season droughts in the modern era. They made it in 2017, but they barely snuck in with a record of 9-7 and their 21st ranked DVOA suggested they were lucky to even win that many games, so the Bills knew they had to get better long-term. The Bills have made a bunch of moves to improve this roster since then, but their biggest decision was taking a shot on quarterback Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

The quarterback position had plagued the Bills for years, with 16 different starting quarterbacks over their 17-year post-season drought, including a pair of first round busts who never amounted to anything (JP Losman and EJ Manuel), but the Bills actually had a decent veteran option in Tyrod Taylor at the time of the Josh Allen selection and it was a big risk for the Bills to give up picks to trade up to select Allen 7th overall, given how raw he was as a prospect. Allen had the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but didn’t show it consistently at the collegiate level, posting mediocre stats on a mediocre team at the University of Wyoming.

As a rookie, Allen showed his physical tools, but also his concerning accuracy, rushing for 7.09 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 89 carries, but completing just 52.8% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and posting just a 58.0 PFF grade as a passer, on a Bills team that took a step backwards from their post-season appearance the year before, finishing with a 6-10 record and a 28th ranked DVOA. 

However, the Bills got better around the quarterback the following off-season and, while Allen still had his share of struggles, he showed significant progress as a passer in year two in 2019, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and posting a 61.9 PFF grade as a passer, while also averaging a 4.68 YPC average and 9 touchdowns on 109 carries, en route to leading the Bills to a 13th ranked finish in DVOA their best record since 1999 at 10-6, securing the team their second playoff appearance in three seasons.

From there, things only got better for the Bills. The team they had spent two decades looking up at in the standings and consistently losing to head-to-head, the New England Patriots, lost their long-time franchise quarterback Tom Brady during the 2020 off-season and, at the same time, Josh Allen broke out as a legitimate franchise quarterback for the Bills in year three. In three seasons since, Allen has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 108 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, with 5.59 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 348 carries, and overall PFF grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, while the Bills have won the division three straight times and have gone a combined 37-12 in the regular season, the second best record in the league over that stretch, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. In terms of DVOA, the Bills have ranked 4th, 2nd, and 1st over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately, for the Bills, this regular season success hasn’t translated to the post-season yet, as the Bills have lost before the Super Bowl in all three seasons, twice to the Chiefs and last season to the Bengals, who have emerged as the other two powerhouses in the AFC at the same time as the Bills. The Bills have a similarly strong roster this season as they have had in the past three seasons and Josh Allen remains an elite quarterback in his prime (age 27 seasons), so the Bills should still be considered among the best teams in the conference, but their conference and division have both gotten significantly better since last season, which hurts their chances of making it out of the AFC and playing in their first Super Bowl in three decades.

Obviously losing Josh Allen for an extended period of time would hurt their chances significantly of even making the post-season, regardless of who was backing him up, but even as far as backup quarterbacks go, the Bills have pretty mediocre ones with veteran journeymen Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley expected to compete for the #2 job behind Josh Allen. Barkley has been with the Bills for years, first joining the team in 2018, and he knows the playbook well, but he has just one start and 97 pass attempts in his tenure with the Bills and the 10-year veteran has a career QB rating of just 66.6 in 7 career starts, while Kyle Allen has a career QB rating of just 82.2 in 19 career starts. Josh Allen’s presence obviously makes this an enviable quarterback room and he hasn’t missed a start with injury in the past four seasons, despite taking more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, but it would be a big concern if Allen did suffer an injury that caused him to miss a significant amount of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from Josh Allen, probably the biggest addition the Bills have made to turn this franchise around is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired from Minnesota for a first round pick during the 2020 off-season. That coincides with when Josh Allen and the Bills really took off as a team and, while Diggs doesn’t deserve all the credit, he has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span, with a 2.29 yards per route run average and slash lines of 127/1535/8, 103/1225/10, and 108/1429/11. 

Diggs wasn’t as productive early in his career in Minnesota, but that was in large part because the Vikings were a much run-heavier offense than the Bills. Including his time in Minnesota, Diggs’ career yards per route run average is 2.12 and he’s exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 80 and a career best 90.1 grade in 2022. Diggs is now heading into his age 30 season and will probably start to decline soon, but even if he drops off a little, he should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023.

The rest of this receiving corps is a bit of a concern though. When the Bills first acquired Diggs, they had other useful receivers in Cole Beasley and John Brown, but those veterans declined and are no longer with the team and the Bills haven’t really found good replacements. Gabe Davis, a 4th round pick in 2020, was given every opportunity to have a big year opposite Diggs in 2022, after averaging 1.29 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.62 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, but Davis didn’t make the most of that, falling back to 1.43 yards per route run and only catching 51.6% of his 93 targets. 

Davis did average 17.4 yards per catch and his 48/836/7 slash line wasn’t bad overall, but he had 3/171/2 of that in one game and was very inconsistent throughout the year, falling below 40 receiving yards 8 times in 15 games and catching 3 of fewer passes 10 times, which kept this offense from it’s highest potential. Meanwhile, slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie was even worse, with just a 42/423/4 slash line on 65 targets and 1.10 yards per route run, while tight end Dawson Knox had just a 48/517/6 slash line also on 65 targets, also with 1.10 yards per route run.

The Bills didn’t really do much to improve this group this off-season, at least in the short-term. Davis looks likely to be locked into the #2 receiver job, without any real competition added, and the Bills will hope he can take a step forward, still only in his age 24 season, which is at least a possibility, even if it might not be a strong one. McKenzie is gone, but the veteran options they signed to potentially replace him, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, are both underwhelming, which likely means Khalil Shakir, who averaged just 1.14 yards per route run in limited action as a 5th round rookie in 2022, and Justin Shorter, a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, will also compete for playing time behind DIggs and Davis. 

Harty has flashed potential with 2.05 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent has never gotten consistent playing time, leading to him having just 64 career catches, and at 5-6 170 it’s hard to see him ever being effective as anything more than a situational player. Sherfield, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 30 catches in a season and a total of 67 catches in his career. Whoever wins the #3 receiver job will almost definitely struggle in that role and it’s very possible the Bills will mix and match their options depending on the situation to try to get the most out of this underwhelming group.

The one big addition the Bills made to this group this off-season was using their first round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was arguably the best receiving tight end in the draft. With Dawson Knox still being on the team and at least being a decent, if unspectacular tight end option (1.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2019), the Bills will probably use a lot more two-tight end sets this season to offset their lack of depth at the wide receiver position, with Kincaid likely to spend a lot of the year as essentially a big slot receiver option at 6-4 246. However, rookie tight ends rarely make a big impact in year one and it’s unlikely Kincaid will be the consistent #2 option that the Bills lacked last season. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, especially with #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs elevating this group significantly by himself, but there are concerns with this group after Diggs.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Over the past two seasons respectively, the Bills have ranked 6th in yards per carry with 4.79 and 2nd in yards per carry with 5.19, but much of that is because of Josh Allen’s dominance on the ground, averaging 6.20 YPC on 246 carries. Lead back Devin Singletary averaged 4.63 YPC on 365 carries over that stretch, but he benefited significantly from defenses worrying about Josh Allen running or Josh Allen throwing it deep, making life much easier for Bills running backs, and the Bills felt they could do better than him this off-season, letting him sign with the Texans on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. Singletary also played heavily in passing situations, but was highly inefficient, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run and 5.03 yards per target in his four seasons in Buffalo.

To replace Singletary, the Bills signed ex-Patriots running back Damien Harris to a 1-year, 1.77 million dollar deal and they will give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick James Cook, who impressed in limited action as a rookie, averaging 5.70 YPC on 89 carries and 1.43 yards per route run as a pass catcher. Harris had a solid 4.66 YPC average with 20 touchdowns on 449 carries in his four seasons in New England, who selected him in the 3rd round in 2019, and he figures to have a significant role as an early down back in Buffalo, but Cook also figures to have a significant early down role, in addition to being their primary passing down back, with Harris averaging 1.10 yards per route run for his career, with just 40 catches in 38 career games. 

Harris and Cook figure to be a good running back tandem, with Cook having the potential for a big breakout year in his second season in the league, even if he isn’t as efficient as he was a year ago and even if he splits carries with Harris. On top of that, the Bills have good depth, signing veteran Latavius Murray to be their 3rd running back. Murray is going into his age 33 season, might not have much left in the tank, and only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average in the passing game, but Murray has averaged 4.22 YPC on 1,481 carries a in 10 seasons in the league, including 4.39 YPC on 160 carries just last season, so you could do a lot worse as your #3 back and he should be able to fill in at least a few carries per game if needed. This is a pretty deep backfield and their likely top back James Cook has the potential for a big year in year two.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this Bills’ offense last season was their offensive line, as they ranked 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 28th in team run blocking grade, and the guard position was particularly a problem. Left guard Rodger Saffold made every start, but finished with just a 43.7 PFF grade and, while right guard Ryan Bates was better with a 61.8 PFF grade, he’s an underwhelming starting option as a former undrafted free agent who had only made four nondescript starts in four seasons in the league prior to last season.

To upgrade the guard position, the Bills cut Saffold, signed Connor McGovern and David Edwards as veteran options, and then used a 2nd round pick on Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence. Those three will compete for the two starting spots with Bates and, while all four options have their problems, this should be a better position group by default than a year ago. Torrence has the most upside of the bunch and could wind up being the best guard from this draft when all is said and done, but he could have some growing pains in year one. Edwards had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while making 31 total starts, and he is only in his age 26 season, but concussion limited him to just 4 starts last season and, at one point, seemed to threaten his career. 

Edwards and Torrence are probably their best two options, but they will have to compete for the job, given that the Bills’ other options have some potential too. McGovern has made 29 starts over the past 3 seasons, went in the 3rd round in 2019, and had a 61.7 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2020 and 68.7 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2021, but that fell to 52.2 in 15 starts in 2022 in the most action of his career. He’s only in his age 26 season though, so there’s still some potential there. Bates, as I mentioned, is a former undrafted free agent with a limited history of starting and probably doesn’t have a high upside, but he was at least serviceable a year ago and potentially could do that again. They have a good chance to find a couple at least decent starters out of these four.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness last season, with Spencer Brown (14 starts) and David Quessenberry (3 starts) finishing with PFF grades of 51.4 and 59.3 respectively last season. The Bills did add veteran journeyman Brandon Shell to the mix this off-season and he’s been a capable starter for most of his career and could be an option for the Bills this season, but he’s also going into his age 31 season and has never exceeded 14 starts in a season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option, even if he could be an upgrade by default over what they got at the position last season. 

Fortunately, the Bills could get bounce back years from either Brown or Quessenberry. Brown was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 62.6 PFF grade in 10 starts as a rookie, before regressing in year two, and he easily could bounce back at least to his rookie year form in his third season in the league in 2023. Quessenberry, meanwhile, had a 80.6 PFF grade as a 17-game starter in 2021, but he is also a complete one-year wonder who has just 10 career starts and a career high 61.7 PFF grade for a season aside from his 2021 campaign. Now going into his age 33 season, it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, but he could at least be better in 2023 than he was in 2022.

At center and left tackle respectively, veterans Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins are locked into starting roles again this season. Morse has been a solid starter throughout his 8-year career, making 109 total starts and exceeding 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, but his 61.4 PFF grade in 2022 was a career worst and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining, in which case he would likely end up as a below average starter, even if only slightly.

Dawkins is the best of the bunch, making 89 starts in six seasons in the league, since going in the second round in 2017, and finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 69.9, 73.4, 78.1, 77.5, and 73.5 in those six seasons respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Dawkins should remain an above average starting option in 2023. This offensive line will probably be better than a year ago, but this is still an underwhelming group overall, even with Dion Dawkins elevating this group by himself.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to their impressive offense, which ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA last season, the Bills also had a strong defense in 2022, ranking 4th in defensive DVOA. It’s much tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistently great on offense and defensive performance is much less predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but there are reasons that the Bills have a better chance to remain a high-level defense than most teams would. 

For one, the Bills also had an elite defense in 2021, ranking 1st in defensive DVOA, so last year wasn’t a fluke. The Bills also are bringing back most of their key players from a year ago, with 17 of their top-18 in terms of snaps played last season still on the team this season. The Bills also added some key players in free agency this off-season and should be better at some positions than they were a year ago and they should be healthier than a year ago, when they actually had the 2nd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense, excelling defensively despite several key absences.

One position group that should be better than a year ago is the edge defender group. Not only will they likely get a healthier year out of top edge defender Von Miller, who was limited to 450 snaps played in 11 games by injury last season, but they also added veteran Leonard Floyd in free agency on a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal to give them even more depth at the position. With 2021 1st round pick Greg Rousseau, 2020 2nd round pick AJ Epenesa, and 2021 2nd round pick Boogie Basham also in the mix, the Bills have a very deep group at this position.

If healthy, Von Miller has a good chance to remain the best of the bunch. There is some concern with Miller being in his age 34 season and coming off of a major injury, but the future Hall of Famer has surpassed a 79 grade on PFF in all 12 seasons in the league, with a whopping eight seasons over 90, and he didn’t show any real signs of decline before his injury last season, with a 85.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, not far off from his career pass rush stats of 123.5 sacks, 133 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate in 162 career games. 

Between his age and his significant injury, there’s a good chance Miller declines at least somewhat in 2023, but he’s declining from such a high level that he has a good chance to remain one of the better players in the league at his position, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past, and the Bills should benefit from having him likely be more available than he was a year ago, even if it’s possible he isn’t quite ready to return in week 1.

If Miller isn’t the Bills’ top edge defender this season, it will probably have more to do with the performance of Greg Rousseau in his third season in the league than Miller declining significantly. Rousseau has been limited to snap counts of 531 and 463 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but that was partially because he missed four games with injury in 2023 and he’s impressed when on the field, with a 70.2 PFF grade as a rookie and then a 83.6 PFF grade in year two, when he had 8 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate, despite his limited playing time. He probably won’t get a ton of playing time in 2023, even if he does continue improving, just because this is a very deep position, but the first round pick has a ton of upside and his third season in the league could end up being his best year yet.

Basham and Epenesa could also take a step forward in 2023, though they don’t nearly have the upside that Rousseau has. Basham has only played 589 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league in a very deep position group, but he’s received decent grades of 62.2 and 66.4 from PFF and could take a step forward and/or see more playing time in his third season in the league in 2023. Epenesa is in a pretty similar situation, having only played 332 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and posting mostly middling grades, but having the upside to take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season, making him actually a year younger than Basham, even though Basham was drafted the year after Epenesa.

The veteran Floyd came relatively cheap in free agency, but he should have a role even in this deep position group and he was a good value. Floyd has averaged 895 snaps played per season over the past five seasons and has 47.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 104 games in seven seasons in the league, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. Last season, he had a 65.7 PFF grade across 932 snaps with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and 11.2% pressure rate. He’s in his age 31 season now, but he also figures to see his snap count cut probably by about half in Buffalo, which should keep him fresher and allow him to be more efficient as he ages, so he should still be a useful part of their edge defender rotation, barring an unexpected massive drop off. 

Floyd’s presence will likely force veteran Shaq Lawson off the roster, just purely in a numbers game, but he wasn’t bad with a 61.8 PFF grade on 467 snaps last season and he’s mostly been a useful rotational edge defender in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, while playing an average of 489 snaps per season, so, even if he’s unlikely to make their final roster, he’s still good insurance to have if someone gets hurt between now and the start of the season. This is arguably the best edge defender group in the league, with high level talent in Von Miller and Greg Rousseau, as well as great depth. 

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Bills bring back their top-4 in terms of snaps played last season, DaQuan Jones (643 snaps), Ed Oliver (526 snaps), Tim Settle (372 snaps), and Jordan Phillips (347 snaps). Jones and Oliver figure to remain the starters after solid seasons in which they had PFF grades of 72.6 and 68.5 respectively. That wasn’t out of the ordinary for those two either. Jones has played an average of 630 snaps per season over the past eight seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He’s at his best against the run, but also has a decent 6.1% pressure rate for his career. The concern with him is he’s going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off somewhat in 2023, he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starting option.

Ed Oliver, meanwhile, has been inconsistent against the run in four seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019, but he’s consistently been an above average pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 62 career games, and he’s coming off of a career best 68.7 grade against the run in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starting option with above average interior pass rush ability.

The Bills depth options were underwhelming last season, with Settle and Phillips finishing with PFF grades of 53.8 and 52.2 respectively, but the Bills did make an addition at this position this off-season that should improve their depth, with veteran Poona Ford coming over from the Seahawks on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal, which could be a steal. Ford comes cheap because he finished last season with a career worst 56.2 PFF grade on 642 snaps, but the 2018 undrafted free agent had a 90.3 PFF grade on 231 snaps as a rookie, a 73.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 2019, a 81.9 PFF grade on 670 snaps in 2020, and a 73.0 PFF grade on 802 snaps in 2021, so he has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 28 season, especially since he is unlikely to have to play the same snap count as he did in his final seasons in Seattle. 

Throughout his career, Ford has been at his best against the run, but he also has a solid 6.4% pressure rate for his career and should be a useful, well-rounded reserve for this team. The Bills also could get a better year out of Tim Settle, who exceeded 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to joining the Bills last off-season. He only averaged 252 snaps per game in those four seasons, but the Bills won’t need much more than that from him in 2023 and, still only in his age 26 season, the 2018 5th round pick has obvious bounce back potential. 

Jordan Phillips is probably the worst of the bunch, as he’s been below 60 on PFF in all but one of his eight seasons in the league and is now heading into his age 31 season, but the Bills won’t need much, if anything from him in 2023 with Ford being added and, as mediocre as he’s been overall in his career, he does have a decent 7.4% career pressure rate, with his poor run defense usually being the cause of his mediocre overall grades. This is a pretty solid position group overall, one that should have better play from their reserves than they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one key player from last year’s defense that the Bills didn’t retain this off-season is linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds had a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in 13 games and there’s no way around the fact that losing him is a big deal, but this is still a very talented defense even without him, with likely better health than a year ago and the additions of Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford on the defensive line. Even the Bills’ linebacking corps is still in good shape without Edmunds, with other top linebacker Matt Milano (73.7 PFF grade across 946 snaps) still on the roster and a pair of intriguing young players who will compete to replace Edmunds, 2022 3rd round pick Terrel Bernard, who flashed some potential in very limited action as a rookie (111 snaps), and this year’s 3rd round pick, Tulane’s Dorian Williams.

Both Bernard and Williams are raw and are obviously projections to larger roles and, even if they do pan out, they are highly unlikely to be as good as Edmunds was a year ago, but they’re not bad options either and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if whoever wins that position battle ended up being at least a capable starter. Milano, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in three of the past five seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022, and he’s averaged 55.5 snaps per game in those five seasons, including 60.1 snaps per game over the past two seasons, so he’s more than capable of being a top every down linebacker, still only in his age 28 season.

The Bills also still have Tyrel Dodson, who was technically their third linebacker a year ago, playing 220 snaps in just 8 games, but he struggled mightily with a 48.4 PFF grade and the 2019 undrafted free agent has never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF for a season, while playing just 471 snaps total in his career, so he’s probably not a realistic starting option, even with Edmunds gone. Losing Tremaine Edmunds obviously hurts, but, even without him, this is not a bad linebacking corps and the Bills have more than enough talent at other positions to make up for the loss of Edmunds.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group that should benefit most from being healthier this season is the Bills’ secondary, which saw talented safety Micah Hyde go down for the season in week 2 and only got 307 snaps in six games out of expected top cornerback Tre’Davious White, who did not look like himself after a late season return from a torn ACL suffered late in the 2021 season, finishing the 2022 season with just a 61.9 PFF grade in his limited action. 

Hyde will almost definitely play more games in 2023 than a year ago and he had finished above 75 on PFF in four of his previous five seasons prior to the injury, so his return will be very much welcome, even if he could start to decline, now in his age 33 season. Meanwhile, White has a great chance to bounce back, another year removed from the injury, still only in his age 28 season, with three seasons over 75 in coverage grade on PFF in his five seasons in the league prior to 2022.

Hyde will start next to Jordan Poyer, also a long-time above average safety, who is also getting up there in age, in his age 32 season. Poyer could easily start declining this season, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 74.2, 75.2, 78.2, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively, with just five games missed over that stretch, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he starts declining this season, he’s declining from a high enough level that he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive decline.

At cornerback, in addition to likely a healthier year out of Tre’Davious White, the Bills should also get a better year out of Kaiir Elam, who was a first round pick in 2022, but struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade on 477 rookie year snaps, failing to secure a consistent starting role (six starts), despite the absence of White. Elam has the potential to be a lot better in year two though and is probably the favorite to start opposite White. 

The Bills also have a solid slot cornerback in Taron Johnson, who has exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 68.3 PFF grade on a career high 969 snaps in 2022. Johnson can play outside, in addition to on the slot, which he did more than ever last season, so he’s also a candidate to start next to White, with Elam coming in as the third cornerback when Johnson moves to the slot, but Johnson is at his best on the slot and the Bills would probably prefer to let him focus on that.

With Hyde and White expected to be healthier, Damar Hamlin (845 snaps) and Dane Johnson (830 snaps) are expected to move back to reserve roles in 2023. Hamlin was actually decent with a 61.4 PFF grade last season, before his season ended in scary fashion when he collapsed during the Bills’ week 17 game against the Bengals, and assuming he can make a full recovery, the 2021 6th round pick is a solid reserve option. In addition to last season’s decent performance in a starting role, Hamlin also flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in 2021, albeit on just 50 snaps.

Dane Johnson, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.5 PFF grade in his extended action last season and, as a result, he is probably not a real candidate to compete with Elam and Taron Johnson for a top-3 job, but the 2020 7th round pick was decent depth on snap counts of 193 and 482 in his first two seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve cornerback. The Bills also have 2022 6th round pick Christian Benford, who saw 363 rookie year snaps and, at times, played ahead of the much higher drafted Kaiir Elam, but Benford too struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade and would be best as a reserve option as well. This secondary should be much better than a year ago with White and Hyde likely to be healthier and Kaiir Elam expected to be better in his second season in the league. This is a deep and talented group overall.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Bills have been one of the better teams in the league over the past three seasons, finishing in the top-4 in DVOA in all three seasons, including back-to-back seasons in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. They have a good chance to do that again in 2023, with minimal key losses on either side of the ball this off-season. Losing Tremaine Edmunds hurts their defense, but they should be much healthier on that side of the ball this season, with Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tre’Davious White being the most noteworthy players who will almost definitely be more available this season, and they added a pair of key rotational players on the defensive line in Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford, so they could easily remain a top defense in 2023, even without Edmunds. 

The Bills haven’t broken through and won or even made the Super Bowl yet, and the AFC is even better this year, so they will have a tough path out to that elusive Super Bowl appearance, but they have as good of a chance as any team to win the AFC and, if they do that, they would almost definitely be favored in the Super Bowl over any team in the weaker NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Chicago Bears (3-11)

The Bills haven’t been quite as dominant this season as they were last season, when all of their wins came by at least 12 points, leading to a +194 point differential that led the league. However, they have played better in one-score games, going 5-3 this year, after going 0-5 a year ago, which led to them going “just” 11-6, despite their league leading point differential. The Bills’ point differential is also still the second best in the league, only 8 points behind the Eagles, who have benefited significantly from a league leading turnover margin of +12, which is not predictive week-to-week (Buffalo is only at +1). In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive, the Bills lead the league at +9.80.

The biggest reason why the Bills haven’t been as dominant this season as last season is they have had more injuries and, while some key players have returned, they still are without several for this game, including starting center Mitch Morse, talented safety Micah Hyde, top edge defender Von Miller, key reserve edge defender Boogie Basham, top interior defender Ed Oliver, and key reserve interior defender Jordan Phillips. They’re facing a Bears team that is one of the worst in the league at 3-11, but the Bears have been competitive in most of their games, with 7 of their 11 losses coming by one-score, so the Bills aren’t guaranteed to blow them out in this game, especially on the road.

The Bills are also in a tough spot, as they have to play a much tougher game against the Bengals next week and easily could overlook the Bears as a result, with favorites of a touchdown or more covering at just a 42.0% rate against an opponent who has a winning percentage that is 50%+ lower than their next opponent’s winning percentage, which is the case here, as the Bengals are currently 10-4.

I’m still taking the Bills as 8-point favorites, as the Bills still have five double digit wins this season, mostly against teams better than the Bears, who are unlikely to be as good offensively this week with their talented starting guard duo of Cody Whitehair and Teven Jenkins being out due to injury, further exposing a defense that has been horrendous since losing edge defender Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith to trades and safety Eddie Jackson to injury. However, there isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, as big road favorites in a bad way.

Buffalo Bills 34 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3)

The Dolphins are only a couple games behind the Bills in the standings, but they have a +4 point differential and have won five of their six one-score games, while the Bills have a +132 point differential and have won three of their six one-score games. The gap between these two teams is closer than that suggests though, as the Dolphins lost all three games this season in which Tua Tagovailoa did not start and/or finish the game, including two by multiple scores.

In fact, the Dolphins’ only multi-score loss of the year with Tua Tagovailoa under center was on the road in San Francisco, against one of the most talented teams in the league. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bills by a touchdown, which gives us some line value with the Dolphins. It’s not a significant amount though, as the Bills as the type of team that could beat the Dolphins by multiple scores like the 49ers did, especially at home in Buffalo.

The Bills haven’t been quite as dominant this season as they were last season, when all of their wins came by at least 12 points, leading to a +194 point differential that led the league, but they have played better in close games (0-5 in one-score games a year ago, leading to them having “just” a 11-6 record, despite leading the league in point differential) and their point differential this season is still the second best in the league, only six points behind the Eagles, who have benefited significantly from a league leading turnover margin of +14, which is not predictive week-to-week (Buffalo is only at +2). 

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive, the Bills lead the league, ranking 9.5 points above average. Injuries have also been the biggest reason why the Bills haven’t been quite as dominant as a year ago and they have gotten healthier in recent weeks. A lot of attention has been paid to the absence of Von Miller and that is certainly a big loss, but the rest of this team is significantly healthier than earlier this season and Miller was not part of their team a year ago, when they led the league in point differential.

Talented safety Jordan Poyer (four games missed), starting offensive linemen Mitch Morse (two games) and Dion Dawkins (one game), stud linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (three games) and Matt Milano (one game), and talented edge defender Greg Rousseau (three games), top cornerback Tre’Davious White (ten games) are all set to play for Buffalo this week, after missing significant time with injury early in the season. I’m still taking the Dolphins for pick ‘em purposes, but my calculated line of Buffalo -6.5 doesn’t give us much line value with the Dolphins and, considering the Bills already have seven wins by more than seven points this season, it’s hard to be confident in the Dolphins at all this week, so this is one of my lowest confidence picks.

Update: After some slight tweaks to my numbers, I like the Bills in this game, but still for a no confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 28 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -7

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

The Bills are favored by 10 points in this game against the Jets, who are at least a middling team, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That might seem high at first glance, but the Bills have had a tendency to blow teams out over the past two seasons, with 17 of their last 21 victories coming by 10 points or more, relevant considering where this line is. Only 2 of their last 5 wins have surpassed this margin of victory, but the Bills are healthier this week than they have been recently, which should make a big difference in the Bills’ margins of victory, as it did last week in their 14-point victory in New England.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Bills losing Von Miller for the season and that is a huge loss, but, aside from that, the Bills are in pretty good injury shape compared to most of the season, with talented safety Jordan Poyer (four games missed), starting offensive linemen Mitch Morse (two games) and Dion Dawkins one game), stud linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (three games) and Matt Milano (one game), and talented edge defender Greg Rousseau (three games), top cornerback Tre’Davious White (ten games) all set to play this week, after missing significant time with injury early in the season. My calculated line actually has the Bills as 11.5-point favorites here, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with them, despite the line being so high. This game isn’t bettable, but I like the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, as they should get another multi-score win this week, like they did last week and in most of their wins over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 30 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5)

Throughout the 2021 season and through the first two games of this season, when the Bills won, they always won big, winning 14 straight games by 12 points or more, with an average margin of victory of 23.4 points per game, while 6 of their 7 losses over that time frame came by 7 points or fewer. However, since week 3, the Bills have played much closer games, with five of six wins coming by 10 points or fewer. They’ve also lost three games over that time frame, though all three came by three points or fewer and could have easily gone the other way.

The biggest reason why the Bills haven’t been blowing opponents as much lately is because they haven’t been at full strength. This week, they’ll have to play without top edge defender Von Miller for the first time this season, which a huge loss and an absence that is drawing a lot of attention in this game, but, other than that, the Bills are actually going to be a lot healthier this week than they’ve been in recent weeks, which should offset Miller’s absence. 

On defense, their other talented edge defender Greg Rousseau is set to return from a 3-game absence and stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will return from a 2-game absence, while their offense will welcome back center Mitch Morse from a 1-game absence. The Bills also got top cornerback Tre’Davious White back for the first time all season last week and should get much more of a contribution from him in his second game back this week and they will still have talented safety Jordan Poyer healthy, after he missed four games earlier this season. 

The Bills aren’t at full strength, missing Miller and continuing to be without their other talented safety Jordan Poyer and their talented starting left tackle Dion Dawkins, but, even with all of their injuries thus far this season, the Bills still rank first in the league in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 9.5 points above average and, in their current state, my roster rankings have the Bills about 9.5 points above average as well. 

The Patriots, meanwhile, are much more of a middling team, playing at a high level on defense, but struggling on offense, which is the more predictive side of the ball, and, because of that, we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Bills, even as favorites of more than a field goal on the road in New England. I would need this line to drop all the way down to a field goal for the Bills to be worth betting, as 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and a Buffalo win by exactly a field goal is a strong possibility, but my calculated line is Buffalo -6, so they’re still the right side for pick ‘em purposes at -3.5.

Buffalo Bills 26 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -3.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided by exactly 10 points, and the line movement happened despite the fact that the Lions will be missing top cornerback Jeff Okudah and their starting guards Evan Brown and Jonah Jackson this week. The primary reason for the line movement is the Lions pulled the upset over the Giants last week, but that is not as impressive as it might seem, as the Giants were an overrated team that was nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record, with all seven of their wins coming by one score and five coming against teams that are among the worst in the league (4-7 or worse).

The Bills, meanwhile, almost always blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points across 19 wins over the past two seasons (19-10), and they are favored by 12.5 points on my calculated line against a mediocre Lions team that is missing several key players due to injury. There isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as this seems likely to be the Bills’ 18th double digit win over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -9.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3) in Detroit

This ends up being a neutral site game for the Bills, with their matchup against the Browns being relocated to Detroit because of a snowstorm in Buffalo. Despite that, the Bills are still favored by 7.5 points, suggesting they’re that much better than the Browns. The Bills do typically blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points across 18 wins over the past two seasons (18-10), but they haven’t been playing as well as late due to injuries on defense. Already without talented safety Micah Hyde, the Bills are also without talented edge defender Gregory Rousseau and, while they get back their other talented safety Jordan Poyer this week, they will be without stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. 

The Browns, meanwhile, are relatively healthy and, while they are 3-6, they have been relatively competitive in most of their losses, with four of six coming by three points or fewer. My calculated line still gives us some line value with the Bills as 8-point neutral site favorites, but that’s barely anything and the Browns are in the better spot as well, with the Bills having to play again in a few days on Thanksgiving, with favorites covering at just a 44.6% rate all-time before a Thursday Night Football game. This is just a low confidence pick, but I like the Browns for pick ’em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 30 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2)

In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Bills this week. They lost to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites in a close game last week, but the Jets are at least a decent team and teams tend to bounce back from big upset losses anyway, covering the spread at a 58.3% rate all-time after a loss as 10-point favorites or more. This week, the Bills face the Vikings, who, at 7-1, now have a better record than the Bills, but most of the Vikings’ wins have been close, with six of seven coming by eight points or fewer points or fewer, while four of the Bills’ six wins have come by ten points or more, a trend that dates back to the start of last season, over which time they have a margin of victory of 21.1 points per game in 18 victories, while all but eight of their nine losses have come by seven points or fewer. The Vikings have also benefited from a +6 turnover margin, which is not predictive, while the Bills are only at +1.

Unfortunately, these are not ordinary circumstances, as the Bills are in a terrible injury situation. Not only is quarterback Josh Allen not expected to play because of an elbow injury that could get worse, but the Bills are missing key players on defense as well. Already without talented safety Micah Hyde, the Bills will be without their other talented safety Jordan Poyer, whose absence was felt in the Bills’ loss last week, and also will be without talented edge defender Greg Rousseau, who will miss his first game of the season this week.

Assuming Allen is out, my calculated line is even, with backup Case Keenum being serviceable, but an obvious downgrade. This line is at Buffalo -3, but it probably takes into account the possibility that Allen does play, even if the chances are slim. Allen’s uncertainty makes this game tough to bet, as the Vikings would probably be worth betting at +3 if Allen didn’t play, but there’s still a chance he could and, if he’s ruled out, the line will likely drop. I’m taking the Vikings for a low confidence pick for now, but I could have an update before game time depending on Allen’s status and where this line ends up.

Update: Josh Allen looks like he will unexpectedly play and start for the Bills and, as a result, the line has moved up to 6. If I knew Allen was healthy and would play the whole game, the Bills would be bettable at that number, getting good line value in a good spot, but how well and how much Allen plays is still somewhat in question, so this is going to be a no confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -6

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-1) at New York Jets (5-3)

The Jets are 5-3, but are 11.5-point home underdogs against the Bills, the first time a team has been home underdogs of 11 points or more despite a record 5-3 or better since the 2007 Giants were 10-5 against the undefeated New England Patriots in week 17. In some sense that makes sense, as the Bills blow out almost everyone they beat, with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game over the past two seasons, as opposed to a margin of defeat of 7.1 points per game.

However, this line still does seem a little high. The Jets have significant problems on offense, missing starting wide receiver Corey Davis, impressive rookie running back Breece Hall, and talented starting right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, among other lesser absences, but their defense is legitimately one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. They could make this game at least somewhat competitive with the Bills and, while they’re still likely to lose by multiple scores, my calculated line has them as just 9-point underdogs, so we’re getting some value with them at +11.5. There’s not enough here for the Jets to be worth betting, but they’re the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 23 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +11.5

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)

The Packers have started 3-4, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 18th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 16th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 28th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about two points below average, and my roster rankings only have them slightly higher, about one point above average. Despite the big name at quarterback, this team isn’t much more than a slightly above average team any way you look at it.

Making matters worse, now the Packers have to go on the road to face arguably the best team in the league, the Buffalo Bills, who rank first in my roster rankings and in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 12.5 points and 12 points above average respectively. This will be especially tough for the Packers because they tend to struggle away from home, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point drop off in QB rating on the road in his career, significantly above average. This line is 11, which is high, but I don’t think it’s quite high enough, with my calculated line at Buffalo -15.5. If that seems high, consider that 15 of the Bills’ last 17 wins have come by 12 points or more, with an average margin of victory over those 17 wins of 21.8 points per game, dating back to the start of last season. There isn’t quite enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 31 Green Bay Packers 16

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11

Confidence: Low