Buccaneers

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Bears are just 2-6, but things are not that bad for them right now. Despite a rash of injuries, the Bears were better than their record suggested in the first 8 games of the season and enter this game 20th in first down rate differential. They also enter this game as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off of their bye, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, left guard Josh Sitton, and right guard Kyle Long, 3 key trench players, all returning this week. Prior to the bye, the Bears got back players like middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury. With the players they currently have healthy, the Bears are not a bad team.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are not as good. They enter this game just 27th in first down rate differential, despite not having as many injuries as the Bears. They’ve also lacked any sort of homefield advantage in recent years, going just 18-39 ATS at home since 2009. The problem is this line is at 2.5 in favor of the visiting Bears, so we’re not really getting any line value with them. They’re still the right side here in pick ‘em pools as long as the line is under 3, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

This line was 2 in favor of the visiting Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since moved all the way up to 4.5. Considering it moved through the key numbers of 3 and 4, that’s a pretty significant line movement; close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movement because it tends to be the result of overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case it makes perfect sense. The Buccaneers went into overtime last week at home against the Raiders and now have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game on a short week. That historically has not gone well, as teams have covered just 4 times on Thursday Night off of an overtime game in 25 instances, since 1989. They figure to be exhausted in this one.

That being said, I couldn’t be confident in the Falcons at all, for a number of reasons. The first and most obvious one is how big this line is. The Falcons are a solid team, but the Buccaneers aren’t bad either and, even on a short week off of an overtime game, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Falcons at 4.5. This line seems to take into account that the Buccaneers will be exhausted. The Falcons are also in a tough spot of their own, as they have a tough game in Philadelphia on deck, while the Buccaneers stay at home and host the lowly Bears next week. Favorites are just 58-89 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Home underdogs like the Buccaneers also tend to do well off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 74-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Falcons, but for a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -4.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)

The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 5-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading as their point differential is just +6 and they rank just 27th in first down percentage differential. Their offense, which ranks 11th in first down percentage, might actually be exceeding my expectations a little bit, but their defense has been horrendous, as they rank 27th in first down percentage allowed and have not played up to their talent level at all. That could still happen going forward, as they are, on paper, one of the more complete teams in the NFL, with strong talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point.

That being said, like I did last week when they were 1 point underdogs in Jacksonville, I’m taking them as 1 point underdogs in Tampa Bay this week, for similar reasons. The Raiders had their most impressive game of the season in last week’s win against the Jaguars, winning 33-16, hopefully a sign of more to come. The Buccaneers are a comparable team to the Jaguars. They also have had a horrible homefield advantage in recent years, going 17-31 ATS at home since 2010, while the Raiders are 14-6 ATS on the road in the past 3 seasons. Given that, this line should be around 3 in favor of the Raiders. The Buccaneers are also in a tough spot with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. The Buccaneers could easily look ahead past this non-conference game to their matchup with the division leader in 4 days. Favorites are 50-79 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Raiders are the pick here and are worth picking all the way up to Oakland -2.5.

Oakland Raiders 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league and there are very few teams I’d predict them to defeat, but I think the Buccaneers might be one. The Buccaneers enter in 28th in first down percentage differential and are very banged up. They’re missing their top-2 running backs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims, starting wide receiver Vincent Jackson, starting left guard JR Sweezy, starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald, and top pass rusher Robert Ayers. With those players, this is one of the 5 least talented teams in the league.

That being said, the 49ers are probably still an inferior team (25th in first down percentage differential despite an easy schedule), so we’re not getting great a value with this even line. The 49ers get top cornerback Jimmie Ward back from injury this week, but lose starting running back Carlos Hyde on the offensive side of the ball. He’s been by far their most effective offensive weapon this season. I couldn’t be confident in the 49ers, but I am picking them to win their 2nd game of the season here at home against a banged up Tampa Bay team.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco PK

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Both of these two teams enter this game incredibly banged up. The Buccaneers are missing their two top running backs (Doug Martin and Charles Sims), their top two defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers), and starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The Panthers, meanwhile, are missing starting quarterback Cam Newton, starting running back Jonathan Stewart, starting left tackle Michael Oher and first and second round rookies Vernon Butler and James Bradberry, who were both playing roles on defense.

Cam Newton’s injury is obviously the big one as he’ll miss his first and the Panthers hope his only game with a concussion, after being knocked out in the middle of last week’s loss in Atlanta. With so many missing players, it’s tough to figure out where the line should be, but I’d estimate that Newton missing is worth about 5 points on the line. This line at 5 suggests the Panthers should be favored by around 10 points with a healthy Newton, even without Stewart, Oher, and the others. I think that’s a little high given that Carolina hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season, missing the presence of Josh Norman on defense immensely and not executing offensively the way they did last year either. I’m going to take the points, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but Tampa Bay is too banged up for me to be confident in them this week.

Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. In this game, the Buccaneers were 1.5 point home underdogs last week on the early line, but now are 3 point home underdogs. That’s significant because 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. It’s understandable why the line moved. While the Broncos got an upset victory in Cincinnati, the Buccaneers lost at home to the Rams. The Broncos win was impressive and they’ve actually been very impressive as a team this year, more so than last year when they relied on many close victories to get to the Super Bowl.

Their offense has been much improved through 3 games, as Trevor Siemian has been an upgrade over both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, while running back CJ Anderson and the Broncos’ offensive line are both playing much better in their second year in head coach Gary Kubiak’s system. The defense isn’t quite as good without Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, and now DeMarcus Ware, who is injured, but they’ve done a good job of keeping a trio of solid offenses in check, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. They’re a more talented team than they were a year ago.

However, this line might still be a little bit too high, as the Buccaneers’ home loss last week was not as bad as it seemed. In fact, they won the first down battle by 12 against the Rams and moved the chains at a significantly better rate (79.07% to 73.33%). Despite that, the public is all over the Buccaneers and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run. The Buccaneers are not a great team and I couldn’t be confident in them at all, especially without top pass rusher Robert Ayers, but I would pick the points here if I had to, as long as you get the full field goal. Less than a field goal, I think I would actually change my pick. There’s also a very good chance this one pushes. A field goal Denver win seems like a strong possibility.

Denver Broncos 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

The Rams pulled off a big upset win last week in their home opener, beating the 7-point favorite Seattle Seahawks by the final score of 9-3. However, they’re in a terrible spot this week. For one, teams tend to struggle off of big home upset victories like that, going 49-75 ATS off of a win as home underdogs, including 13-24 ATS off of a win as home underdogs of 4 or more and 4-13 ATS as divisional home underdogs or 4 or more. This game is sandwiched between that huge, emotional home victory and another tough game, a trip to Arizona, where they will almost certainly be 10+ point underdogs. Teams are just 39-59 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs, as tough upcoming games like that tend to be a distraction.

The Rams could easily be flat this week and they’re not that good to begin with, despite their home win against the Seahawks last week. The Rams’ defense looked great against the Seahawks, but the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t looked good at all in either game this season, thanks to the worst offensive line in the league. On the offensive side, the Rams failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week. On top of that, their 28-0 week 1 loss in San Francisco definitely can’t be ignored. They’re still dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, after finishing 30th in that measure last season. As bad as they were last season, they’re worse this season, after trading their entire draft for a quarterback who hasn’t played yet and losing a pair of talented starters in the secondary in free agency, Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod, neither of whom was replaced.

There are two reasons why I wouldn’t put money on Tampa Bay as favorites of more than 4 though (this line is currently at 5.5). The first is the Buccaneers are playing a week 3 home opener, which historically doesn’t go well. Teams are just 24-46 ATS in a week 3 home opener since 1989. The second reason is the Buccaneers are missing their top pass rusher Robert Ayers with injury. Without him, it’s tough to be too confident in them as favorites of more than 4, even against an awful Rams team, considering 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Doug Martin is also out for Tampa Bay, though backup Charles Sims is a solid fill-in. The Buccaneers seem like the right side though.

Update: This line fell to 4 Sunday Morning, so it’s worth a play on Tampa Bay if you can get that line or better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -4

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Patriots. This week, I think we’re getting good line value with the Cardinals, with the line shifting from 8.5 on the early line last week to 7 this week, largely as a result of Arizona’s loss. I wish we were getting 6.5 with the Cardinals and I’d need the line to be that low to put money on this one, but Arizona should be the right side even at 7.

Tampa Bay looked solid in Atlanta last week, but Atlanta has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. The Buccaneers are better than last season, but played a very easy schedule last season and still have a lot of significant issues. Arizona, meanwhile, was one of the best teams in the league last season. They were also one of the oldest in the league, but they kept all of their key players in free agency and added both Chandler Jones and Evan Mathis, though the latter is out for this one for an injury. They still figure to be one of the better teams in the league this season and should win this one by double digits. If you can get 6.5, it’s worth a bet.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

When I saw this line was at 3 in favor of the home team Atlanta Falcons earlier this week, I immediately sided with the Buccaneers. It might not have been enough to put money on it, but a 3-point line suggests that these two teams are more or less even and I think the Buccaneers are a noticeable better team. The Falcons finished 2 games better than the Buccaneers last year, but Tampa Bay could take another step forward with a 2nd year quarterback under center, improvements on defense, likely bounce back years from top defensive players Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, and the return of a couple players from injury, including right tackle DeMar Dotson.

The Falcons, meanwhile, made a couple of improvements this off-season, but also made significant reaches in the first two rounds of the draft and completely overpaid free agent wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. They also had next to no injuries last season, finishing with the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost in the league. That won’t continue and they’re already missing first round pick Keanu Neal with a knee injury. They have solid offense overall, but still lack a competent 2nd receiving option and the defense is one of the worst in the league. Tampa Bay should be a little bit better this off-season. It seems like sharp bettors agreed, as the line has since shifted to 2.5. Now that we’re not getting a field goal, I don’t have any confidence in Tampa Bay, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

After finishing the 2014 season tied for the worst record in the league at just 2-14, the Buccaneers took a big step forward in 2015, winning 6 games. It wasn’t a great season, but it certainly gives them a lot of hope for the future. The offense was easily the biggest reason for their improvement, as they went from 28th in rate of moving the chains in 2014 to 8th in 2015. An improvement was bound to happen, given that they used the #1 pick on quarterback Jameis Winston out of Florida State, but that big of an improvement is really remarkable. No other offense had as big of an improvement from 2014 to 2015 as the Buccaneers.

Winston wasn’t great, but he was impressive for a rookie, completing 58.3% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while adding 6 touchdowns and 213 yards on 54 carries. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked quarterback, just slightly below offense. He’s still only going into his age 22 season and has immense upside so I expect him to be better in his 2nd year in the league in 2016. A top-15 season is a pretty reasonable estimate for him this season.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the passing game was certainly better under Winston in 2015 than it was in 2014, the running game was where the Buccaneers’ biggest improvement was, thanks to an improbable huge season from running back Doug Martin. He rushed for 1402 yards and 6 touchdowns on 288 carries, an average of 4.87 YPC. He finished 2nd in rushing yards to Adrian Peterson, but Peterson had 39 more carries than Martin and only 83 more yards to show for it and Martin’s YPC average was best among running backs with more than 200 carries. He was also Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked running back among players who played as many snaps as he did. Le’Veon Bell was #1 overall, but sent most of the year injured; Martin played all 16 games, totalling 633 snaps.

Martin also had a great year as a 1st round rookie in 2012, rushing for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries (4.56 YPC) and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked running back, but his 2015 was still improbable because of how disappointing he was in 2013 and 2014. Struggling with conditioning and durability issues, Martin was limited to just 17 games over those 2 seasons and rushed for a combined for 950 yards and 3 touchdowns on 261 attempts (3.64 YPC), less combined than he had as a rookie, grading out well below average in both seasons. He was the Robert Griffin of running backs.

Martin showed what he can do when he’s right last season, but he’s had injury problems dating back to his collegiate days and it’s hard to trust him to have back-to-back top level seasons. Fortunately, the Buccaneers didn’t have to pay too much to keep him as a free agent this off-season, giving him 35.75 million over 5 seasons, a good value considering DeMarco Murray got 40 million over 5 years from the Eagles last off-season and Chris Ivory got 32 million over 5 years from the Jaguars this off-season. His upside alone makes him worth that contract and another strong season is certainly a possibility.

Martin wasn’t the Buccaneers’ only good running back last season, as #2 running back Charles Sims, a 2014 3rd round pick, had a bit of a breakout year on 107 carries, rushing for 529 yards, while catching 51 passes for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 4.94 YPC is a bit misleading because he was the passing down back and played almost exclusively against defenses expecting the pass, playing in sub packages against 3+ wide receivers. However, he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked running back on 457 snaps. Martin’s not a great pass catcher, so Sims is obviously locked into the passing down role again, but could also have a larger role as a runner, at the expense of Doug Martin’s carries, in an effort to keep Martin fresh long-term. Any way you look at it, the Buccaneers have a two headed monster at running back that most teams would envy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Despite the offense’s overall improvement, the Buccaneers’ receiving corps was actually worse last season than it was in 2014, when Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were one of four wide receiver duos to both top 1000 yards. Evans still topped 1000 yards and the 2014 #7 overall pick actually improved on his rookie numbers with 74 catches for 1206 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he caught just 50.3% of his targets and led the league with 11 drops. As a result, he fell from 13th to 19th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Still, it was a strong season for a player who is still only going into his age 23 season and could have a huge breakout year in 2016. If Winston takes a step forward as well, Evans could be a top-5 receiver in terms of receiving yards in 2016, after coming in 11th in 2015.

Jackson didn’t even come close to his 2014 numbers, catching just 33 passes for 543 yards and 3 touchdowns in 10 games in an injury plagued 2015 season. He still graded out above average for the 9th straight season, dating back to Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007, but a down year like that is definitely a concern, given that he’s going into his age 33 season. Charles Sims is a good pass catching back, but the Buccaneers probably don’t want him finishing 2nd on the team in catches and receiving yards again in 2016, so the Buccaneers will need a strong season from the declining Jackson. Adam Humphries is the 3rd receiver, but he was unimpressive on 437 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2015, so they don’t have much depth at behind Evans and Jackson.

Along with Jackson, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins also missed a lot of time with injury last season, missing 9 games with a shoulder injury, after missing 7 games with injury as a 2nd round rookie in 2014. This off-season, he’s reportedly been unimpressive. He still has upside, flashing on 218 snaps last season, but his star is a lot dimmer than it was 2 years ago when he came into the league. He’ll face competition for his starting job from Cameron Brate, a 2014 undrafted free agent who was alright on 348 snaps in 2015 and made 4 starts in ASJ’s absence. Either player will be at best the 4th option in the passing game behind Evans, Jackson, and passing down back Sims in a solid receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The only weak unit on Tampa Bay’s offense is their offensive line. The Buccaneers basically had completely different starting offensive tackles between 2014 and 2015, as left tackle Anthony Collins was released, while right tackle Demar Dotson was limited to 201 snaps by injury. Instead, 2nd round rookie Donovan Smith and veteran Gosder Cherilus started. Smith wasn’t any worse than Collins, who struggled mightily in 2014, but he wasn’t any better either, finishing 71st out of 77 eligible offensive tackles. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be good. Meanwhile, Cherilus wasn’t much better on the right side, finishing 58th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles, but he was replacing a much better player in DeMar Dotson.

Dotson is supposedly healthy going into 2016, which would be a huge boost for the Buccaneers. Prior to 2015, he made 48 out of 48 possible starts from 2012-2014 and, even in any injury plagued season in 2015, he still graded out above average, making it 4 straight seasons in which he’s finished above average on Pro Football Focus. He maxed out at 14th in 2013. Going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point, but he should still be a solid player and a big re-addition. The Buccaneers were confident enough in him to give him a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been a contract year in 2016.

Dotson isn’t the only starting offensive lineman to be coming off of an injury, as veteran center Evan Smith was limited to 386 snaps by injuries this season, splitting time between guard and center. A natural center, Smith should make all 16 starts there if healthy in 2016 and has decent bounce back potential, even if he is heading into his age 30 season, as he’s graded out above average in 3 straight seasons. If healthy, he’d be a big upgrade over Joe Hawley, who was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked center out of 39 eligible in 2015. Hawley fits best as a reserve at both center and guard.

While the Buccaneers do get Dotson and Smith back this season, they also lost left guard Logan Mankins to retirement this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season. Despite his age, he was arguably their best offensive lineman in 2015, ending the year as Pro Football Focus 13th ranked guard. The Buccaneers signed ex-Seahawk JR Sweezy to a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal to replace Mankins, but he’s a major downgrade. He’s made 49 starts in 4 seasons in the league, since getting drafted in the 7th round in 2012, but he’s graded out below average in all 4 of those seasons. The Buccaneers definitely overpaid for him. He’s also dealing with a back injury that puts his status for the start of the season into question.

Rounding out the offensive line is 2nd year guard Ali Marpet. Unlike fellow 2nd round pick Donovan Smith, Marpet played well as a rookie, grading out above average and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked guard. The Buccaneers will need him to take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league with Mankins gone, as Marpet might be their best offensive lineman right now. He’s certainly their most promising, though he’s still unproven. He’s mostly their best offensive lineman by default. It’s a weak offensive line overall.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the offense was much improved in 2015, the defense was still horrible. Part of the reason was disappointing play by their two defensive stars: defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and outside linebacker Lavonte David. I’ll get into David in the linebackers section, but McCoy is an obvious bounce back candidate. The 3rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, McCoy was a top-2 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in 2012, 2013, and 2014, the only defensive tackle in the league who could say that. However, he fell much closer to middle of the pack in 2015, thanks to a shoulder injury he suffered early in the season. Injuries were a problem for him early in his career, but he should be healthy again in 2016 and, just going into his age 28 season, McCoy could easily be one of the top defensive tackles in the game again. That would obviously be a huge boost for this Tampa Bay defense.

The addition of defensive end Robert Ayers in free agency should also be a huge boost for this Tampa Bay defense. A 2009 1st round pick, Ayers looked like a bust early in his career in Denver, but he has very quietly turned his career around since moving from 3-4 outside linebacker to 4-3 defensive end, ranking in the top-14 at his position in 3 straight seasons. Last season was probably the best of his career, as he ranked 8th overall among edge defenders. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he was an absolute steal on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He and McCoy have the potential to be a very formidable inside/outside duo.

The Buccaneers also added Eastern Kentucky defensive end Noah Spence in the 2nd round, though he’s obviously far less proven. Spence will compete with veteran holdovers William Gholston and Jacquies Smith for playing time. Gholston played well last season and should at least be nominally the starter opposite Ayers to begin the season. The 2013 4th round pick graded out below average on 320 snaps and 587 snaps respectively in the first 2 seasons of his career, but finished above average on 675 snaps in 2015. He could have another solid season in 2016 and is at least a capable starter. Smith, however, was horrible in 2015, grading out 101st among 110 eligible edge defenders on snaps. The 2012 undrafted free agent has never graded out above average in 4 seasons in the league. There’s a reason they added, not just Ayers, but Spence too. Spence could easily open the year as the 3rd defensive end.

Unlike at defensive end, the Buccaneers did not add anyone at defensive tackle this off-season and actually lost veterans Henry Melton and Tony McDaniel. However, they were both terrible last season so that’s actually addition by subtraction and they also get veterans Clinton McDonald and Akeem Spence back from injury, which is addition by re-addition. McDonald is the better of the two, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, including last season on 153 snaps in just 8 games. The 6-2 297 pounder excels against the run and should get his old base package job back.

Spence, meanwhile, has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, but even he was better than Melton and McDaniel last season. Still, finishing 91st out of 123 eligible defensive tackles is not good and he also missed 10 games with injury. He’s a weak counterpart to McDonald even if he is, by default, an upgrade over what they had last season. The Buccaneers also have a pair of defensive ends in Robert Ayers and William Gholston that are big enough to rush the passer from the inside in sub packages (6-3 275 and 6-6 281 respectively), with Spence then coming in as an edge rusher in sub packages. It should be a vastly improved defensive line with Ayers coming in and McCoy getting healthy.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

As I mentioned, outside linebacker Lavonte David also had a disappointing year in 2015. A top-7 4-3 outside linebacker in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, David also fell much closer to middle of the pack in 2015, after signing a big 5-year, 50 million dollar extension last off-season. Like McCoy, he’s got a great chance for a bounce back year in 2016. The Buccaneers will need him to do just that. He’s only one of their best players at his best, but the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is a big problem.

The Buccaneers signed ex-Raven Daryl Smith to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He’s played 48 out of 48 possible games as an every down middle linebacker over the past 3 seasons, but is expected to play the other outside linebacker spot opposite David in Tampa Bay for 3 reasons. The first is that the Buccaneers run a 4-3, while Baltimore runs a 3-4, and Smith’s original professional position was 4-3 outside linebacker, prior to moving to middle linebacker in Baltimore’s 3-4.

The second reason is that Smith struggled mightily in 2015, finishing 71st out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus, leading to his release by the Ravens. That’s just the 2nd time he’s graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ history, but, now going into his age 34 season, it’s very possible that Smith is at the end of his line. Fortunately, the other outside linebacker job is primarily a base package job, meaning he’d mainly see snaps on run plays and come off the field for a 5th defensive back in obvious passing situations.

The third reason Smith will play outside is that the Buccaneers already have Kwon Alexander locked into the starting every down job at middle linebacker, going into his 2nd year in the league. The 2015 4th round pick has more upside than Smith, but was even worse than Smith was in 2015, finishing his rookie season 96th out of 97 eligible linebackers in 12 games, before being suspended for the final 4 games of the season for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. The Buccaneers still like him long-term, but he could easily struggle again in 2016. Regardless of whether or not David has a bounce back year, this should still be a below average group, though a big year from David would obviously be huge for this defense overall.

Grade: C

Secondary

As bad as the Buccaneers’ defense was overall in 2015, cornerback was easily their worst position, with Johnthan Banks, Alterraun Verner, Mike Jenkins, and Jude Adjei-Barimah all finished in the bottom-30 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. The Buccaneers added both veteran Brent Grimes and rookie Vernon Hargreaves this off-season and they’ll both start in 2016. Hargreaves was the 11th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, while Grimes comes over on a 2-year, 13.5 million dollar deal.

Like Daryl Smith, Grimes is an aging player, going into his age 33 season, but he’s coming off of a much better season, finishing 41st among cornerbacks. Gone are the days of him grading out 2nd like he did in 2013 or 3rd like he did in 2011, but he’s graded out above average in 5 of the last 6 seasons and could easily have another solid season in 2016. That’s certainly not a guarantee at this stage of his career, but, at the very least, both he and Hargreaves should be massive upgrades at the starting spots for Tampa Bay.

Despite the fact that only 2 million of his 6.75 million dollar salary is guaranteed in 2016, the Buccaneers did not release Alterraun Verner after adding Grimes and Hargreaves, suggesting they still have a role for the veteran, probably as the 3rd cornerback, though he could conceivably begin the season as the starter instead of the rookie Hargreaves. Verner struggled mightily last season like all of Tampa Bay’s corners, grading out 91st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but he’s the only one of them with any bounce back potential.

A 2009 4th round pick, Verner was the only cornerback to grade out in the top-25 among cornerbacks in every season from 2009-2014, prior to last season’s disappointing year. A lot of that is because of how good he is against the run, but he still graded out above average in coverage in all 6 of those seasons. Last season, he didn’t do well in coverage or against the run, but, only going into his age 28 season, he definitely has some bounce back potential. Given that and the additions of Grimes and Hargreaves, this looks like a much improved group of cornerbacks in 2016.

At safety, incumbent starters Chris Conte and Bradley McDougald return. Conte was the better of the two in 2015 by a significant margin, finishing 32nd among safeties on Pro Football Focus. He’s a one-year wonder though, grading out below average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career from 2011-2014, after getting drafted in the 3rd round in 2011 by the Bears. He could have another solid season and prove to be a late bloomer, but I’d bet against it right now. He’s locked into the starting job either way though.

McDougald, on the other hand, struggled in his first season as a starter in 2015, grading out 65th among 89 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus in 15 starts. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 455 snaps (5 starts) in 2014 in the first significant action of his career, but was overstretched in a larger role. The Buccaneers don’t have a better option, so he’ll remain the starter in 2016. The Buccaneers’ safeties are not as good as their cornerbacks, but it’s a capable and overall improved secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense could take a step forward this season with 2nd year quarterback Jameis Winston under center, but where they’re most improved overall is on defense. Robert Ayers, Brent Grimes, and Vernon Hargreaves enter, while Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are obvious bounce back candidates. Defense was definitely their biggest problem last season, as they finished 8th in rate of moving the chains, but 31st in rate of moving the chains allowed. An improved defense should allow this team to take the next step right into the playoff mix, after improving from 2 wins to 6 wins last season.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in NFC South

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]