Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Much is being made of the fact that the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games, winning their final 10 regular season games in 2015 and starting this season 7-2. That’s impressive, but the Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite just scoring one offensive touchdown. That’s also impressive, but it’s very unsustainable. They’ve managed just 28 first downs over those 2 games, but have won both games (by just 5 and 3 points respectively) largely as a result of a +5 turnover margin and a +1 return touchdown margin.

That’s largely been the case all season, as they’ve had the best turnover margin in the league (+14) and have also have a +4 return touchdown margin. Unfortunately for them, turnovers tend to be very inconsistent week-to-week and very tough for a team to rely on. Despite their great turnover margin and the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, just 3 of their 7 wins have come by more than a touchdown. On the season, they rank just 25th in first down rate differential, suggesting that if we assume turnover neutral football for them going forward, they’re going to have far less success in the win/loss column.

The Chiefs also enter this game missing significant players on both sides of the ball. While top pass rusher Justin Houston will make his debut this week after off-season knee surgery, he’s not expected to play anywhere near a full set of snaps. The Chiefs are also still missing defensive end Jaye Howard, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and will likely be without top cornerback Marcus Peters this week. Given all of their injuries, how close many of their wins have been, and the fact that they’ve scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 weeks, they have no business laying 7 points here at home against the Buccaneers.

The only reason I can’t be confident in Tampa Bay is because they’re in a very tough spot here. They’re coming off of a home upset victory over the Bears and then have to turn around and face the Seahawks next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 38-90 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as huge upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction for a team. Furthermore, underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, teams are 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. Sandwiched in between a huge home win and a very tough home game, the Buccaneers might not be fully focused for a non-conference opponent this week. That being said, the Chiefs’ offense has struggled so much this season that the Buccaneers could still cover the 7 even if they don’t play their best game. This isn’t a money play, but that could change if the line moves to 7.5 by the morning.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Bears are just 2-6, but things are not that bad for them right now. Despite a rash of injuries, the Bears were better than their record suggested in the first 8 games of the season and enter this game 20th in first down rate differential. They also enter this game as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off of their bye, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, left guard Josh Sitton, and right guard Kyle Long, 3 key trench players, all returning this week. Prior to the bye, the Bears got back players like middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury. With the players they currently have healthy, the Bears are not a bad team.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are not as good. They enter this game just 27th in first down rate differential, despite not having as many injuries as the Bears. They’ve also lacked any sort of homefield advantage in recent years, going just 18-39 ATS at home since 2009. The problem is this line is at 2.5 in favor of the visiting Bears, so we’re not really getting any line value with them. They’re still the right side here in pick ‘em pools as long as the line is under 3, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

This line was 2 in favor of the visiting Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since moved all the way up to 4.5. Considering it moved through the key numbers of 3 and 4, that’s a pretty significant line movement; close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movement because it tends to be the result of overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case it makes perfect sense. The Buccaneers went into overtime last week at home against the Raiders and now have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game on a short week. That historically has not gone well, as teams have covered just 4 times on Thursday Night off of an overtime game in 25 instances, since 1989. They figure to be exhausted in this one.

That being said, I couldn’t be confident in the Falcons at all, for a number of reasons. The first and most obvious one is how big this line is. The Falcons are a solid team, but the Buccaneers aren’t bad either and, even on a short week off of an overtime game, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Falcons at 4.5. This line seems to take into account that the Buccaneers will be exhausted. The Falcons are also in a tough spot of their own, as they have a tough game in Philadelphia on deck, while the Buccaneers stay at home and host the lowly Bears next week. Favorites are just 58-89 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Home underdogs like the Buccaneers also tend to do well off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 74-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Falcons, but for a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -4.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)

The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 5-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading as their point differential is just +6 and they rank just 27th in first down percentage differential. Their offense, which ranks 11th in first down percentage, might actually be exceeding my expectations a little bit, but their defense has been horrendous, as they rank 27th in first down percentage allowed and have not played up to their talent level at all. That could still happen going forward, as they are, on paper, one of the more complete teams in the NFL, with strong talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point.

That being said, like I did last week when they were 1 point underdogs in Jacksonville, I’m taking them as 1 point underdogs in Tampa Bay this week, for similar reasons. The Raiders had their most impressive game of the season in last week’s win against the Jaguars, winning 33-16, hopefully a sign of more to come. The Buccaneers are a comparable team to the Jaguars. They also have had a horrible homefield advantage in recent years, going 17-31 ATS at home since 2010, while the Raiders are 14-6 ATS on the road in the past 3 seasons. Given that, this line should be around 3 in favor of the Raiders. The Buccaneers are also in a tough spot with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. The Buccaneers could easily look ahead past this non-conference game to their matchup with the division leader in 4 days. Favorites are 50-79 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Raiders are the pick here and are worth picking all the way up to Oakland -2.5.

Oakland Raiders 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league and there are very few teams I’d predict them to defeat, but I think the Buccaneers might be one. The Buccaneers enter in 28th in first down percentage differential and are very banged up. They’re missing their top-2 running backs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims, starting wide receiver Vincent Jackson, starting left guard JR Sweezy, starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald, and top pass rusher Robert Ayers. With those players, this is one of the 5 least talented teams in the league.

That being said, the 49ers are probably still an inferior team (25th in first down percentage differential despite an easy schedule), so we’re not getting great a value with this even line. The 49ers get top cornerback Jimmie Ward back from injury this week, but lose starting running back Carlos Hyde on the offensive side of the ball. He’s been by far their most effective offensive weapon this season. I couldn’t be confident in the 49ers, but I am picking them to win their 2nd game of the season here at home against a banged up Tampa Bay team.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco PK

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Both of these two teams enter this game incredibly banged up. The Buccaneers are missing their two top running backs (Doug Martin and Charles Sims), their top two defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers), and starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The Panthers, meanwhile, are missing starting quarterback Cam Newton, starting running back Jonathan Stewart, starting left tackle Michael Oher and first and second round rookies Vernon Butler and James Bradberry, who were both playing roles on defense.

Cam Newton’s injury is obviously the big one as he’ll miss his first and the Panthers hope his only game with a concussion, after being knocked out in the middle of last week’s loss in Atlanta. With so many missing players, it’s tough to figure out where the line should be, but I’d estimate that Newton missing is worth about 5 points on the line. This line at 5 suggests the Panthers should be favored by around 10 points with a healthy Newton, even without Stewart, Oher, and the others. I think that’s a little high given that Carolina hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season, missing the presence of Josh Norman on defense immensely and not executing offensively the way they did last year either. I’m going to take the points, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but Tampa Bay is too banged up for me to be confident in them this week.

Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. In this game, the Buccaneers were 1.5 point home underdogs last week on the early line, but now are 3 point home underdogs. That’s significant because 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. It’s understandable why the line moved. While the Broncos got an upset victory in Cincinnati, the Buccaneers lost at home to the Rams. The Broncos win was impressive and they’ve actually been very impressive as a team this year, more so than last year when they relied on many close victories to get to the Super Bowl.

Their offense has been much improved through 3 games, as Trevor Siemian has been an upgrade over both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, while running back CJ Anderson and the Broncos’ offensive line are both playing much better in their second year in head coach Gary Kubiak’s system. The defense isn’t quite as good without Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, and now DeMarcus Ware, who is injured, but they’ve done a good job of keeping a trio of solid offenses in check, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. They’re a more talented team than they were a year ago.

However, this line might still be a little bit too high, as the Buccaneers’ home loss last week was not as bad as it seemed. In fact, they won the first down battle by 12 against the Rams and moved the chains at a significantly better rate (79.07% to 73.33%). Despite that, the public is all over the Buccaneers and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run. The Buccaneers are not a great team and I couldn’t be confident in them at all, especially without top pass rusher Robert Ayers, but I would pick the points here if I had to, as long as you get the full field goal. Less than a field goal, I think I would actually change my pick. There’s also a very good chance this one pushes. A field goal Denver win seems like a strong possibility.

Denver Broncos 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: None

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Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

The Rams pulled off a big upset win last week in their home opener, beating the 7-point favorite Seattle Seahawks by the final score of 9-3. However, they’re in a terrible spot this week. For one, teams tend to struggle off of big home upset victories like that, going 49-75 ATS off of a win as home underdogs, including 13-24 ATS off of a win as home underdogs of 4 or more and 4-13 ATS as divisional home underdogs or 4 or more. This game is sandwiched between that huge, emotional home victory and another tough game, a trip to Arizona, where they will almost certainly be 10+ point underdogs. Teams are just 39-59 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs, as tough upcoming games like that tend to be a distraction.

The Rams could easily be flat this week and they’re not that good to begin with, despite their home win against the Seahawks last week. The Rams’ defense looked great against the Seahawks, but the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t looked good at all in either game this season, thanks to the worst offensive line in the league. On the offensive side, the Rams failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week. On top of that, their 28-0 week 1 loss in San Francisco definitely can’t be ignored. They’re still dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, after finishing 30th in that measure last season. As bad as they were last season, they’re worse this season, after trading their entire draft for a quarterback who hasn’t played yet and losing a pair of talented starters in the secondary in free agency, Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod, neither of whom was replaced.

There are two reasons why I wouldn’t put money on Tampa Bay as favorites of more than 4 though (this line is currently at 5.5). The first is the Buccaneers are playing a week 3 home opener, which historically doesn’t go well. Teams are just 24-46 ATS in a week 3 home opener since 1989. The second reason is the Buccaneers are missing their top pass rusher Robert Ayers with injury. Without him, it’s tough to be too confident in them as favorites of more than 4, even against an awful Rams team, considering 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Doug Martin is also out for Tampa Bay, though backup Charles Sims is a solid fill-in. The Buccaneers seem like the right side though.

Update: This line fell to 4 Sunday Morning, so it’s worth a play on Tampa Bay if you can get that line or better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -4

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Patriots. This week, I think we’re getting good line value with the Cardinals, with the line shifting from 8.5 on the early line last week to 7 this week, largely as a result of Arizona’s loss. I wish we were getting 6.5 with the Cardinals and I’d need the line to be that low to put money on this one, but Arizona should be the right side even at 7.

Tampa Bay looked solid in Atlanta last week, but Atlanta has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. The Buccaneers are better than last season, but played a very easy schedule last season and still have a lot of significant issues. Arizona, meanwhile, was one of the best teams in the league last season. They were also one of the oldest in the league, but they kept all of their key players in free agency and added both Chandler Jones and Evan Mathis, though the latter is out for this one for an injury. They still figure to be one of the better teams in the league this season and should win this one by double digits. If you can get 6.5, it’s worth a bet.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

When I saw this line was at 3 in favor of the home team Atlanta Falcons earlier this week, I immediately sided with the Buccaneers. It might not have been enough to put money on it, but a 3-point line suggests that these two teams are more or less even and I think the Buccaneers are a noticeable better team. The Falcons finished 2 games better than the Buccaneers last year, but Tampa Bay could take another step forward with a 2nd year quarterback under center, improvements on defense, likely bounce back years from top defensive players Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, and the return of a couple players from injury, including right tackle DeMar Dotson.

The Falcons, meanwhile, made a couple of improvements this off-season, but also made significant reaches in the first two rounds of the draft and completely overpaid free agent wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. They also had next to no injuries last season, finishing with the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost in the league. That won’t continue and they’re already missing first round pick Keanu Neal with a knee injury. They have solid offense overall, but still lack a competent 2nd receiving option and the defense is one of the worst in the league. Tampa Bay should be a little bit better this off-season. It seems like sharp bettors agreed, as the line has since shifted to 2.5. Now that we’re not getting a field goal, I don’t have any confidence in Tampa Bay, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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