Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites tend to be significantly superior teams and it’s logical that significantly superior teams would be able to play really well off of a bye. The Falcons haven’t played well at all this season, but they’re still significantly better than the lowly Buccaneers. The Falcons rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.74%, while the Buccaneers rank 30th, moving the chains at a 69.74% rate, as opposed to 76.51% for their opponents, a differential of -6.78%. The Buccaneers will be even worse this week with Alterraun Verner out with injury.

The issue here is that the Falcons are only 2.5 point favorites. When you break down those aforementioned trends even more, you see that teams are 40-12 ATS off of a bye as road favorites of 3 or more and just 10-9 ATS as favorites of less than 3, including 21-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS respectively in divisional matchups. However, the logic still does hold that the Falcons would be better prepared for this game as a significantly better team on the road off a bye. The Falcons are even 3 point favorites in some places. I don’t think that trend can be completely discounted just because the Falcons aren’t 3 point favorites everywhere.

On top of that, they generally do well off a loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, going 24-13 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams on long losing streaks like the Falcons are on right now do well off a bye, as teams on 5+ game losing streaks are 22-9 ATS off a bye. The bye tends to give teams like that a chance to collect themselves and come back stronger after the bye. I like the Falcons’ bounce back chances here against a terrible Tampa Bay team. Tampa Bay has been especially bad at home over the past few years, going 13-30 ATS at home since 2009.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)

The Browns are at the end of one of the easiest stretches of play any team in the league has this season, as they went to 0-6 Jacksonville, hosted 0-6 Oakland, and now host 1-6 Tampa Bay. However, next week they have to go to Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football. Teams are 85-105 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional favorites, including 33-56 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more before being divisional road underdogs of a field goal or more. On the opposite side of the coin, the Buccaneers host the Falcons up next, any easier game that is going to provide significantly less of a distraction for the Buccaneers than the Bengals’ game will for the Browns. Teams are 121-90 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 57-96 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. Making matters even worse for the Browns is the fact that the game against the Bengals is a Thursday Night Game, which will make that game even more of a distraction. Favorites are 35-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. I like the Buccaneers chances of keeping this one close and maybe even pulling an upset (like they did in Pittsburgh) against a team in a bad situation. The Buccaneers have actually only lost two games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is. As long as the line is a touchdown, it’s a big play on the Buccaneers.

Cleveland Browns 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: High

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Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)

Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as compared to last week. Buffalo isn’t a good football team, but the Buccaneers are worse, hence why this line is 3 instead of 6, as it was last week. Like last week, I think we’re getting line value with the Vikings.

The Vikings aren’t very good, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.83% rate, as opposed to 72.30% for their opponents, a differential of -5.47%. However, they’re better than the Buccaneers and this line suggests they are equal, which gives up value with Minnesota. The Buccaneers rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 79.53% for their opponents, a differential of -7.94%. They don’t deserve to be favored by a field goal over anyone outside of the Oakland Raiders.

The Vikings are also in a great spot. For one, unlike last week, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 107-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 91-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 177-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 252-363 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game.

On top of that, they have the easier game next week, hosting the Redskins in Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have to go to Cleveland. Teams are 71-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs and conversely teams are 108-73 ATS in that same time period as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 95-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. I like the Vikings’ chances to get the road upset here.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)

The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road.  Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game. On the other hand, they are 31-30 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.85 points per game, a difference of about 9.5 points per game. They fell flat on the road in Indianapolis last week, losing 26-13.

That being said, they are now in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to work on better for teams. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game. Teams seem to adjust to the road in their 2nd straight road game. Road underdogs off of a road loss tend to cover at the highest rate, but teams are 32-22 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd road game of two.

The Buccaneers, conversely, are in a bad spot, coming off of a rough overtime loss in New Orleans last week. Teams are 13-21 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs. We’re also getting line value with the Ravens. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 71.92% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91% that ranks 5th in the NFL. I am concerned about their offense without Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe, especially after how poorly they played in Indianapolis last week, but I still like their chances of bouncing back here this week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are 1-3, which has caused some people to hit the panic button for them, much like they did for the Packers last week (how did that work out?). The Saints did not look good in Dallas last week, but you have to look at more than their record. Three of their first four games have been on the road and they came very close to winning two of them. They are a few plays away from being 3-1 with a couple of decent road wins. If the Saints were 3-0 going into Dallas last week, would as big of a deal be made about their loss? I don’t think so. The Saints are still moving the chains at an 81.56% rate and while their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79.20% rate, I expect what was a solid defense last season to bounce back and they’re still positive in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 15th.

I like the Saints’ chances to bounce back this week. Not only is Drew Brees 19-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (including 14-2 ATS at home), the Saints are a much better team at home than they are on the road. The Saints are 32-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-0-1 ATS at home over their last 18 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 20.3 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points.

They should be able to win by double digits here against a mediocre Buccaneers team that has to be exhausted in their 3rd straight road game. Underdogs are 50-65 ATS in their 3rd or more straight road game since 1989 and it makes sense. Meanwhile, the Saints are going into their bye so they’ll be completely focused here at home for a depleted, mediocre football team. Big home favorites almost always dominate going into the bye, to the tune of 53-17 ATS since 2002 (as home favorites of 6 or more).

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Buccaneers should be all three this week as a result of last week. It’s also really hard to get blown out in back-to-back weeks. The Buccaneers aren’t as bad as they looked last week. They’re not good, but they don’t deserve to be 7.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh so I’m going to fade the public and the overreaction and go with the Buccaneers and the aforementioned trend.

The Buccaneers will have had 10 days to get right before this game, which should help them a lot. Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy, two of their best defensive players, return to a defensive line that needs them badly. Running back Doug Martin is also expected to return. Meanwhile, on the Steelers’ side, they lost 3 defensive starters Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor last week in the victory over Carolina, which will hurt them this week.

Mike Glennon is also expected to start in the absence of the injured Josh McCown and that could be an upgrade. Glennon looked decent last season, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while Josh McCown has been a career journeyman backup for most of his career and has generally proved that this season, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Glennon looked decent in relief of McCown last week, completing 17 of 24 for 121 yards and a touchdown and should be better now with a week and a half of practice with the first team.

There are some trends that go against the Buccaneers, who go to New Orleans next week. They’re likely to be double digit underdogs next week and teams are 39-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a much easier game next week against the Jaguars. Teams are 70-46 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites. I still like the Buccaneers’ bounce back chances though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. Two, the Falcons are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan is 29-19 ATS in his career, at home. On top of that, Matt Ryan is very good off of a loss, going 22-10 ATS.

This would be a bigger play, but the Buccaneers are in a good spot playing their first road game of the season week 3, as teams are 39-24 ATS in that situation since 1989. However, as long as the number is under a touchdown, I like the Falcons chances here. The Buccaneers aren’t a very good team, especially since they could be missing both Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson from a solid, but top heavy defensive unit. The Falcons are a good team, as long as they’re at home and I give them the edge here in a bounce back game on a short week on Thursday Night.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t really that good. They didn’t look good at all last week, losing at home to Derek Anderson and the Panthers. They’re also really banged up with both Adrian Clayborn and Michael Johnson out for this one and Doug Martin likely to be less than 100% even if he plays.

They could easily finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover only about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. The Rams didn’t look good last week, but they don’t deserve to be underdogs of this much in Tampa Bay. No one really does, with the exception of maybe Jacksonville. People are overreacting to how bad they looked last week. Some people had this as a surprise playoff team before Sam Bradford got hurt and now all of a sudden they’re seen as maybe the worst team in the NFL.

Realistically, they are and have always been somewhere in between. Bradford’s loss isn’t that big of a deal because Shaun Hill is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He wasn’t fantastic last week, completing 8 of 13 for 81 yards and an interception before going down with a thigh injury, but in his career he’s completed 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. He’s 34 and hasn’t played a lot since 2010, but he’s still a solid backup. The Rams should finish around 5-11 or 6-10 and I don’t think they’re that much worse than the Buccaneers. I’m not that confident in the Rams because I don’t know if Hill is going to play or be 100% and Austin Davis looked awful last week, but they should be the right side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

This is another one I could go either way on. I think the line is essentially where it should be. I have these two teams as fairly even, as does this line, which favors the home team Buccaneers by 2.5 points. These two teams went 4-12 (Buccaneers) and 12-4 (Panthers) last season, but both should be much closer to the middle of the pack this season. The Buccaneers will be especially improved defensively, bring in Lovie Smith to work with Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, All-Pro caliber talents who fit his scheme like a glove, bringing in Michael Johnson to give them the edge rusher they needed, and bringing in Alterraun Verner as a cheaper scheme fit than Darrelle Revis.

The Panthers, meanwhile, lost their two best offensive linemen, their best blocking tight end, every wide receiver who caught a pass for them last season, 4 of their top 5 defensive backs in terms of snaps played, and had Cam Newton suffer a pair of injuries that will limit him and limited his time to get familiar with his supporting cast in the off-season. Gun to my head, I’m taking Tampa Bay because we’re not getting field goal protection with the Panthers and because Carolina is a public underdog, but this is a close one that could go either way and I’m not confident at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

Doug Martin, a 2012 1st round pick, had a great rookie year, rushing for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, 4.56 YPC, and adding 49 catches for 472 yards and another score. His sophomore season was about the opposite. Martin lasted 6 games before going down for the season with a shoulder injury and in those 6 games, he rushed for 456 yards and a touchdown on 127 carries, 3.59 YPA, and added just 12 catches for 66 yards.

Martin should be healthier this season and he should bounce back somewhat as a runner, but he has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days and he’s still a one year wonder in terms of being a proven NFL running back. Martin’s 2012 seems out of reach for him at the moment, especially given how bad the Buccaneers’ run blocking could be this season. The Buccaneers have also mentioned on multiple occasions that they want to use more of a committee in the backfield. 3rd round rookie Charles Sims could be done for the season, but Mike James and Bobby Rainey could still siphon off carries.

240 carries for 1030 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 41 catches for 340 yards (185 pts standard)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Vincent Jackson is the only proven pass catcher the Buccaneers have. Over the past 6 seasons, he’s caught 351 passes for 6227 yards and 43 touchdowns on 624 targets (56.3%) and 2835 routes run, an average of 2.20 yards per route run. He’s a deep threat and not a consistent volume receiver, but he’s one of the better wide receivers in the league. The one minor concern is that he’s going into his age 31 season, but that’s probably not a problem yet.

70 catches for 1180 yards and 7 touchdowns (160 pts standard)

WR Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)

Evans is really talented, but he’s a raw rookie who doesn’t even turn 21 until the end of August. Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle anyway, even first round talents.  Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Let someone else overdraft him.

50 catches for 750 yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard)

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay)

I mentioned wide receivers struggle as rookie. The same isn’t necessarily true for tight ends, but Seferian-Jenkins is a mere 2nd round rookie and won’t necessarily even start as the Buccaneers have yet to give him the starting job over Brandon Myers. That should remind you to temper your expectations for him in his rookie year because Myers isn’t very good.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

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