Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Da’Quan Bowers

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that player is defensive end Da’Quan Bowers.

When Da’Quan Bowers tore his Achilles in May of 2012, he was presumed to be lost for the season. However, as has been happening more and more often lately, Bowers was able to return within 6 months and played in the Buccaneers’ final 10 games. Bowers didn’t play much, serving mostly as a situational pass rusher, but returning for a partial season undoubtedly helped Bowers in his long-term development. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, that should prove to be very valuable for Bowers, a 2nd round pick out of Clemson during the 2011 NFL Draft.

Bowers also played pretty well in limited action last year, with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and 9 hurries on 200 pass rush snaps and 5 run stops on 60 run snaps. Overall, he graded out above average on ProFootballFocus. Now even further removed from that injury and fully healthy, Bowers could easily have a breakout 3rd year in 2013, assuming he stays healthy. Injury concerns were the reason for his fall from the top-10 to the 50th pick in 2011, but he’s certainly got plenty of talent.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Buccaneers

This season must have felt like 4 different seasons for Buccaneers fans. They started 1-3, after losing their last 10 to finish 2011, and it looked like more of the same. However, after the bye, they ripped off wins in 5 of 6 games and looked like a potential playoff team. They lost a close one at home to Atlanta and then in Denver, but those were two of the best teams in the league so they still looked like they were in good position. That was until they lost at home to the lowly Eagles, and then got blown out by the Saints and Rams, to push their losing streak at 5. They finished out their season with an impressive win in Atlanta.

It’s no surprise they’re this inconsistent when their quarterback is this inconsistent. It wasn’t just this year. They went 3-13 in 2009, 10-6 in 2010, and then 4-12 last year as Josh Freeman posted 10/18, 25/6, and 16/22 touchdown to interception ratios in those 3 seasons respectively. This year, he started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez.

Overall, his stats are solid. His career quarterback rating of 79.8 is nothing special, but it’s not terrible either. But, it must be so maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans to have no idea on a game to game basis what they’re going to get when their quarterback takes the field. It seems to be frustrating the organization as well. They’ve mentioned on several occasions that they will try to bring in some better competition for him this off-season and an upgrade over backup Dan Orlovsky. Josh Freeman is in a contract year in 2013, so it’s going to be a huge year for him. In 2014, he could be anything from a well-paid starting quarterback for the Buccaneers to a backup elsewhere.

Cornerback

Both of the Buccaneers’ week 1 starting cornerbacks got suspended this season. Aqib Talib’s suspension got him traded to New England, ahead of free agency this off-season, while Eric Wright’s voided his contract and gave the Buccaneers the option to cut him and get out of the reminder of his contract without penalty. He’s not worth the 30.75 million he’s owed over the next 4 seasons. It was a ridiculous contract to begin with and the Buccaneers got a lucky break when he voided it. He should be cut and he’s expected to be.

However, without Talib and Wright, the Buccaneers will need two new starting cornerbacks this off-season. They gave a bunch of young cornerbacks a shot down the stretch in their absence, including EJ Biggers, Leonard Johnson, Anthony Gaitor, Brandon McDonald, and Danny Gorrer. None of them really looked like long term starters as the Buccaneers ranked 29th against the pass. They might be able to get away with one of that group as a starter in 2013, but not two. Look for them to target cornerbacks in free agency and/or with the 13th pick of the draft.

Defensive Tackle

Gerald McCoy showed what he can do if he can stay healthy, playing all 16 games for the first time in his 3 year career and having one of the top years by a defensive tackle this season. However, they need an upgrade next to him. Roy Miller is a decent run stuffer, but he had just 5 total quarterback pressures all year. He’s a free agent anyway.

Tight End

The Buccaneers traded away Kellen Winslow last off-season, which proved to be a smart move. He went on to be a final cut by the Seahawks and then was unwanted on the open market, playing a few snaps with the Patriots and that was it. The idea was for 2011 4th round pick Luke Stocker to be his replacement. While he did a good job as a blocker, he didn’t provide much as a pass catcher. Those duties were left to Dallas Clark, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season. They need a pass catching tight end to pair with Stocker long term.

Safety

Ronde Barber had a resurgent season this year at free safety, after the longtime veteran struggled last year at cornerback. However, he turns 38 in April and no one would be surprised if he hung them up. Even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him long term. He’ll be retiring soon and his abilities could fall off a cliff at any time. They’ll need a long term successor or immediate replacement depending on what he decides, though they might opt to replace him in house with Ahmad Black.

Defensive End

Michael Bennett is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. A lot of common fans don’t know about him, but he’ll get a hefty payday this offseason as a free agent. If the Buccaneers can’t bring him back, they should be fine with 2011 1st and 2nd round picks Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers as starters, but they’ll have no depth and have a need at the position. They should really try to re-sign him though because that trio plays really well together.

Outside Linebacker

The Buccaneers rarely used a 3rd linebacker this season. I don’t know if that was by design, but it might have just been because the coaching staff didn’t trust Quincy Black. Black has been terrible since signing a ridiculous 5 year, 29 million dollar deal 2 off-seasons ago. He should be cut, owed a non-guaranteed 5.5 million coming off a major neck injury sustained in Novemer. The Buccaneers could bring in another 3rd linebacker or give the job to Adam Hayward, who was decent in Black’s absence down the stretch.

Quarterback

Josh Freeman’s inconsistency has to be maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans. At times, he can look like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and at times he can look like the worst. All in all, he posts solid stats, but it’s never a good thing to have no idea what you’re getting from your starting quarterback on a game to game basis. He’s heading into free agency after next season, so this is a key year for him. The Buccaneers have mentioned on several occasions adding a better backup and more competition for him. Dan Orlovsky is no threat to his job. They need to bring in someone who can be, preferably through the early/mid rounds of the draft so he can take over as a starter in 2014 if they need him to.

Guard

Both guards Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph will be coming off major injuries next season. They need some better depth because both Ted Larsen and Jamon Meredith were terrible when counted on this season. Davin Joseph is overrated and overpaid anyway, as he ranked towards the bottom of ProFootballFocus’ guards in his previous two seasons before his injury this year. He probably won’t be cut or anything, but they could use better depth for competition in case he continues to struggle.

Kick Returner

The Buccaneers ranked 30th in the NFL in kickoff return average. Arrelious Benn should not be allowed to serve in that role any longer.

Punt Returner

The Buccaneers were better at returning punts, but primary punt returner Roscoe Parrish is a free agent.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (13-2)

I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do that, so instead I have to look at what this game means do these two teams. The Falcons have clinched the #1 seed, so this game is meaningless to them. However, I’m hearing they’ll play their starters for at least a half, as they did in 2010 after they had clinched the #1 seed and they held a 21-0 lead at the half against the hapless Panthers.

I’d suggest they treat this like a real game. They seem to have finally hit their stride and they are playing their best football of the season after that loss in Carolina woke them up and it wouldn’t make sense to take their foot off the gas at all, especially with a week off before their next game. There’s a reason that Super Bowl teams tend to come from Wild Card weekend, while teams that get first round byes tend to lose their first home game, including these Falcons in 2010.

Regardless of what Atlanta does in this one, the Buccaneers are playing terrible football here and this game might be even more meaningless to them than the Falcons. The Falcons at least have the playoffs to tune up for. The Buccaneers’ season is over and they don’t even get to play spoiler at all with the Falcons having already clinched the #1 seed.

I’m not saying they’re as bad as the 2010 Panthers or the 2011 Buccaneers, against whom the Falcons took a 42-7 halftime lead last season during week 17. However, the Buccaneers have lost 5 straight, which is especially bad news for such a traditionally streaky team. Two close losses to the Falcons and Broncos weren’t that concerning, but their home loss to the Eagles was and once they lost that game and effectively had their season ended, they seem to have mailed it in for the 2nd straight season.

At best, they’re a streaky team on a very bad streak, with the streaky Josh Freeman going 88 of 174 (50.6%) for 1082 yards (6.2 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his last 5 games, including a 1:8 TD/INT ratio in his last 2 games, a combined 69-13 loss. At worst, they’ve quit. I’m laying the points and taking the Falcons. Mike Smith is 3-1 ATS week 17, including 4-0 SU by an average of 14.0 points per game (against an average line of -10.5).

Public lean: ?

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 20 (-3)

Record: 6-9

Net points per drive: -0.07 (18th)

DVOA: -8.3% (21st)

Weighted DVOA: -10.6% (23rd)

Studs

LT Donald Penn: Did not allow a pressure on 61 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 1 sack on 61 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LOLB Lavonte David: 12 solo tackles, 8 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 37 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Leonard Johnson: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 2 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

QB Josh Freeman: 30 of 54 for 372 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, 4 drops, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 66.8 adjusted QB rating

WR Tiquan Underwood: Caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 2 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Ahmad Black: Allowed 2 catches for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 solo tackle

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Buccaneers. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

The Buccaneers certainly may be embarrassed (though you’d think they would have been embarrassed last week after losing at home to the lowly Eagles, but that didn’t work out), but it’s not enough for me to take them solely for that reason. Since 2002, dogs are 63-33 ATS off a 31+ loss, while favorites are just 15-13 ATS.

Given that, I actually like the Rams this week. They also lost last week, though not in as embarrassing a fashion. However, as a result, this line didn’t move in either direction despite the Buccaneers’ huge loss. I’m not too worried by the Rams’ loss. They are now 0-2 ATS this year as favorites, but they remain a pristine 9-3 ATS as dogs, as they are here.

At first glance, we are getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.02, while the Rams rank 26th at -0.43. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tampa Bay should be 7 point favorites. However, the Buccaneers rank 21st in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams rank 19th and 18th respectively, which pretty much defeats all that line value.

The Buccaneers are also likely to overlook them with a big divisional matchup up next. Teams are 59-93 ATS before being touchdown divisional dogs since 2008 and the Buccaneers go to Atlanta next week. The Rams have an equally big game next week in Seattle, but they’re less likely to overlook the Buccaneers as dogs.

Favorites are 13-29 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown divisional dogs, while dogs are 45-64 ATS. Going back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 37-63 ATS as favorites and 91-127 ATS as dogs. Neither one is good, but I prefer the dog, especially as good as the Rams have been as dogs this season. The Buccaneers also tend to be very streaky and right now they are definitely streaking in the wrong direction. It’s also possible they might have just quit as they did late last season, though that’s unlikely under disciplinarian 1st year Head Coach Greg Schiano. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 8 TB 4

Final thoughts: No change.

St. Louis Rams 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 15 (-5)

Record: 6-8

Net points per drive: -0.02 (16th)

DVOA: -6.1% (21st)

Weighted DVOA: -7.0% (21st)

The Buccaneers hadn’t lost a single game by more than 8 points all season this year, before getting blown out 41-0 against a sub .500 Saints team last week. They quit down the stretch last season and while I think it’s unlikely that’s happening again under disciplinarian Greg Schiano, it’s definitely evident that this is a streaky team. After starting 1-3, the Buccaneers won 5 of 6, before now losing 4 straight and it’s very possible they continue that streak all the way to 6-10.

Studs

SS Mark Barron: 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections

Duds

QB Josh Freeman: 26 of 47 for 279 yards and 4 interceptions, 3 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 60.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 19 of 50 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 7 of 16, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass)

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 16 yards (9 after contact) on 9 attempts, 1 penalty, allowed 2 quarterback hits on 6 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 19 yards on 5 attempts

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RT Demar Dotson: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

WR Tiquan Underwood: Caught 3 passes for 46 yards on 5 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Dallas Clark: Caught 8 passes for 42 yards on 12 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 interceptions when thrown to

CB Anthony Gaitor: Allowed 8 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Lavonte David: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

CB Danny Gorrer: Allowed 3 catches for 41 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle

RE Daniel Te’o Nesheim: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted.

The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. However, this week, the Saints are the one in that spot. Last week, they lost as dogs in New York against the Giants and next week, they have to go to Dallas, where they will be dogs. In between, they have this game, in which they are favored. Teams are 59-85 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Teams are 15-18 ATS in this spot as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is why I didn’t take the Eagles last week. I thought even if the Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles, they could still cover on pure talent. However, the Saints are favorites of less than a touchdown here this week and teams are 44-67 ATS in that spot. They might not overlook the Buccaneers, though, because it’s a divisional game sandwiched in between two non-divisional games. Teams are 12-17 ATS in that spot since 2008, 22-26 ATS since 2002, which isn’t much of a trend.

However, that trend does feed into one another. Teams are 32-55 ATS as favorites off back-to-back-to-back losses as dogs before being dogs since 1989. This is an extreme sandwich situation. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites, as they host the Rams next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs are 116-59 ATS since 2008. It’s also worth noting that teams are 30-17 ATS as dogs off a close (1-3 points) loss as touchdown favorites. The Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles last week in preparation for this game and they’ll be extra focused this week.

This would be a bigger play if this wasn’t a divisional matchup and if the Saints weren’t so good at home. They are 12-3 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, but only 3-3 ATS there this year without Sean Payton. I think we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, though I’m definitely glad to be getting more than a field goal.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) 2 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 15 (-4)

Record: 6-7

Net points per drive: 0.25 (11th)

DVOA: 1.1% (14th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.4% (15th)

A home loss to the Eagles effectively eliminates them from the playoffs. They would have had to win in New Orleans and Atlanta to make it anyway, but I thought they could, easily since the Falcons would likely be resting starters week 17. It turns out, that maybe they were overrated. They seem to be nothing if not streaky and have cooled down of late. If they heat up again, a win in New Orleans and Atlanta, as well as at home for the Rams, could happen, but it’s more likely they end up at a nice round 8-8.

Studs

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 128 yards (69 after contact) and a touchdown on 28 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 3 passes for 4 yards on 4 attempts

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 6 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 8.2 YAC per catch

LE Michael Bennett: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 59 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

DT Gerald McCoy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 56 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

FS Ronde Barber: 9 solo tackles, 8 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 5 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 5 attempts

LOLB Lavonte David: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 15 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

QB Josh Freeman: 14 of 34 for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 68.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 37 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 0 of 9, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 quarterback hit on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 4 attempts

RT Demar Dotson: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Dallas Clark: Caught 1 pass for 19 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Luke Stocker: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 14 pass snaps, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 5 pass block snaps

CB Danny Gorrer: Allowed 3 catches for 77 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 missed tackle

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

All of the trends say the Eagles are in a good spot this week and should cover. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008 and the Eagles are dogs here in Tampa Bay after losing in Dallas last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are in what’s known as the sandwich game, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs again. They lost in Denver last week as dogs and will go to New Orleans next week. Teams tend to take the sandwich game lightly, as a breather, going 59-84 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Meanwhile for the Eagles, teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. For whatever reason, teams on long losing streaks tend to cover after almost breaking through and winning a game. Andy Reid also does well as road dogs in his career, going 38-21 ATS in this situation, including 10-3 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. This includes a cover in Dallas last week.

That being said, I can’t take the Eagles here. Remember how they were playing before the Carolina and Dallas game? They looked like they had absolutely quit. They did a good job of playing for pride in two nationally televised games, including one in which they were big divisional dogs and one in which they were home dogs to a previously 2-8 team. This week, they aren’t on national TV and they have no real reason to try hard here against Tampa Bay, who is desperate for a win to remain in the playoff hunt. Philadelphia had their best effort of the season last week and nearly pulled the upset in Dallas. That was their Super Bowl. They probably won’t give nearly that level of effort this week. Their secondary blows numerous coverages and allows numerous big plays per game and that’s what Josh Freeman thrives on.

Meanwhile, we’re getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 11th in net points per drive at 0.29, while Philadelphia ranks 28th at -0.49. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 3 points for home field advantage, we get that the Buccaneers should be favored by about 11.5 points, which makes sense since the Cowboys were 10 point favorites last week and almost covered (the Eagles covered on a very late punt returner). The Cowboys aren’t better than the Buccaneers. I know they won when they played earlier this year, but it was close in Dallas and Tampa Bay is a completely different team now.

That line holds up against DVOA, which ranks Tampa Bay 13th and Philadelphia 27th, including 12th and 28th respectively in weighted DVOA. I like to compare that to net points per drive for confirmation because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. That line makes sense because the Buccaneers are better than their 6-6 record. Not only have they been playing better football in general since the bye (I don’t knock them too much for losses to Atlanta and Denver), but they have a +48 points differential which is much better than their record. That’s good for 9th in the NFL and 5th in the loaded NFC.

That’s because they haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points and they have 4 wins by double digits. I think they get their 5th here. It’s only a small play though because of the trends, which all favor Philadelphia, but I really don’t think they’ll give a crap. I’ve lost a lot of big plays this year betting on the Eagles when all the trends are on their side. Trends don’t too a ton of a good when a team has quit and aside from the last 2 weeks, when they had a reason to give a crap, they have quit.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (60% range)

Sharps lean: TB 8 PHI 8

Final thoughts: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 11 (+0)

Record: 6-6

Net points per drive:  0.29 (11th)

DVOA: 2.7% (13th)

Weighted DVOA: 2.9% (12th)

Studs

C Ted Larsen: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 42 yards on 8 attempts

WR Mike Williams: Caught 6 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 1.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Lavonte David: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 4 quarterback hurries on 11 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 1 interception

K Connor Barth: 3/3 FG (31, 50, 55)

Duds

LT Donald Penn: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

RT Demar Dotson: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

TE Dallas Clark: Caught 3 passes for 21 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 1 pass block snap

WR Tiquan Underwood: Caught 1 pass for 12 yards on 6 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

FS Ronde Barber: Allowed 5 catches for 41 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Ahmad Black: Allowed 3 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

CB Leonard Johnson: Allowed 3 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 penalties, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Mason Foster: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

DT Roy Miller: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Michael Bennett: 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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