Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7)

The Cardinals were favored by just 8 points in this game against the 49ers on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 10. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, but I still don’t think this line is high enough, even with the Cardinals being the first double digit road favorites of the season. The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the 49ers rank dead last by a wide margin. This is a matchup of easily the worst team in the league and possibly the best so even 10 points isn’t enough to scare me off of taking the Cardinals on the road.

The Cardinals are also in a way better spot, as they go to St. Louis next, where the early line has them as 6 point favorites, while the 49ers have to go to Chicago, where the early line has them as 6.5 point underdogs. Teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+, which the Cardinals are expected to be. On top of that, favorites of 6+ are 113-73 ATS before being favorites of 6+ again, since 2010.  On the other side, 6+ point underdogs are 73-101 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2010. Combining everything, 6+ point favorites are 36-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. While the 49ers could definitely be distracted with another tough game on deck, the Cardinals have a very easy game on deck and should be completely focused to blow out a significantly inferior opponent this week. I’m confident enough in Arizona to put money on them.

Arizona Cardinals 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -10

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 8 games, putting up a +110 point differential, despite just a +3 turnover margin on the season.

That being said, look at who the Cardinals have been dominating: New Orleans (12th in rate of moving the chains differential), Chicago (20th), San Francisco (32nd), St. Louis (26th), Detroit (31st), Pittsburgh (18th), Baltimore (27th), and Cleveland (28th). The Seahawks are easily the toughest opponent they’ve had to date, as they rank 7th, despite a much tougher schedule that has included games against Carolina (5th), Cincinnati (3rd), and Green Bay (9th). The Seahawks are very weak on the offensive line, which has really hurt their offense, but the defense is still really good and they’ve held up well despite a tough schedule, playing close games with all 3 of those aforementioned teams.

They might not be as good as they’ve been in the past 2 years, when they won the NFC both times, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, where they are 21-11 ATS under Russell Wilson. They’re just 6-6 ATS in their last 12 home games, so they’re not an auto-bet at home anymore, but that’s because the odds makers have started expensively pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance into the line, not because they’ve stopped being good at home. This line is an example of that, as they’re favored by a field goal at home over a superior Arizona team. I can’t take the Seahawks this week as field goal favorites, because Arizona has been so dominant, even against a weak schedule, but I’m not confident in the Cardinals either.

Arizona Cardinals 17 Seattle Seahawks 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)

Typically, I like fading significant line movements, because they tend to be week-to-week overreactions. This game does feature one, as the Cardinals were 4 point favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 6, probably as a result of the Browns’ big loss in St. Louis. However, I still like the Cardinals’ chances of winning big here on the road in Cleveland and covering this line. The Cardinals are “only” 5-2, but they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 7 games.

In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good or bad. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones), and Baltimore. However, the Browns aren’t really better than any of those teams. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They get cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson back from injury this week, but neither one of them was playing that well before getting hurt and the Cardinals are essentially at full strength injury wise as well. Even with this line moving up to 6, I still think we’re getting line value with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are also in a way better spot, going into the bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 39-25 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Browns, meanwhile, need to turn around and play the Bengals on Thursday Night Football next week, a game in which they’re expected to be underdogs of 9.5. Underdogs of 6+ are 40-61 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again the following week, and that’s before you even take into account the upcoming short week. The Cardinals should have no problem beating up on the Browns, as they have against many similar caliber opponents, with no upcoming distractions on the horizon going into the bye. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because of all the public money pouring in on Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 203-210 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 294-407 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, the Ravens, despite being 1-5, haven’t lost by more than 6 all season. Their 5 losses have come by a combined 22 points. Those facts are relevant, considering this line is 9.

That being said, this is probably the toughest game the Ravens have had all season. They played the Bengals, but that was in Baltimore and this is in Arizona. They played the Broncos in Denver, but the Broncos aren’t as good as their 6-0 record and the Ravens still had Terrell Suggs for most of that game. They’ve really missed him. The Cardinals are “just” 4-2, but they actually rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential and have won that battle in all 6 of their games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones). However, the Ravens aren’t much better than any of those teams. In fact, they lost to the 49ers in San Francisco last week. Despite most of their games being close, they only rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. Sure, they could easily be 3-3, but their one win came in overtime so they could just as easily be 0-6. They’re more talented that that suggests and they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but they’ve lost Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, Darian Stewart, and Torrey Smith from that team, as well as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, and that’s had a noticeable effect on this team. They’re not very good.

The Cardinals could easily have another blowout victory this week and cover this 9 point line. It helps that they have no upcoming distractions, as they head to Cleveland next week, where they are expected to be 4 point favorites over the Browns. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Cardinals aren’t guaranteed to be 4+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. I’m going with the Cardinals, but this line is way too high for me to be confident.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

The Steelers’ defense has been alright this year, a noticeable improvement over last season, but their offense hasn’t nearly as good. Last year, they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, but barely had anyone miss any time. They haven’t been as fortunate this season. They get wide receiver Martavis Bryant this week for the first time this season, after missing 4 games with suspension and 1 game with injury, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and especially missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with injuries. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games under Roethlisberger, but a mere 61.40% rate in the last 2 games, despite facing Baltimore and San Diego, two defenses that haven’t exactly been powerhouses thus far this season.

The drop off at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick has been close to as big of a drop off at the position as you can get, so bad that Jon Gruden actually suggested that Vick be benched for 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones, who has never even looked good in the pre-season, during last Monday’s night’s telecast, before Vick made some plays down the stretch. This isn’t surprising. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

The Steelers won in San Diego last week, but they shouldn’t have, considering they moved the chains at a 61.54% rate, as opposed to 72.22% for the Chargers. The Steelers had long touchdown on offense, a pick six by the Steelers’ defense, multiple dropped interceptions by the Chargers, and still only won at the last second. If a couple plays go a little bit differently, the Chargers probably win that game by 10 or more. However, that hasn’t quite caused the Steelers to be completely overvalued by the odds makers and the public like I would have liked, as the odds makers have moved this line from 2.5 in favor of Arizona to 4.5 in favor of Arizona in a week and the public is still all over the Cardinals.

That’s because Arizona is coming off of a resounding 42-17 victory in Detroit last week, certainly an impressive performance, but a final score that was largely aided by a +6 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.4 the following week. The Cardinals won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin in this one.

Fortunately, they’ve been a great team aside from turnovers all year. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, despite not being one of the NFL’s several remaining undefeated teams. Even in their loss, a 2 point home loss against the Rams, they won the moving the chains battle 71.05% to 66.67% and only lost because they lost the turnover margin by 3. That was a week before they won the turnover battle by 6, a lesson in just how inconsistent something like turnover margin can be on a week-to-week basis. The one knock on Arizona is they haven’t really played anyone (New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit), but Pittsburgh isn’t a very good team with Vick under center, especially considering Vick has covered in just 5 of his last 23 starts, despite last week’s fluky victory. I expect another big win by the Cardinals and I’m still comfortable putting money on them, but I still wish this line was lower.

Arizona is one of six road favorites this week, all six of whom the public really likes and, aside from the Atlanta/New Orleans Thursday Night Game, when I took the Saints and they covered, I’m taking all of the road favorites. I hate doing that, but 3 of them are in their 2nd straight road game (Arizona, New England, Denver) which helps, 2 of them are going into a bye (Denver, Cincinnati), which helps, and Baltimore is mere 2 point favorites over the lowly 49ers, who have a brutally tough home game against the Seahawks on deck. Arizona is the pick here and I hope for a rare, big losing weekend by the sportsbooks.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4)

The Lions are the league’s last remaining winless team at 0-4. Many think they should have won last week in Seattle because the refs missed a pivotal call at the end of the game, but, regardless of the outcome, they definitely got outplayed in Seattle last week, needing to rely on a +2 turnover margin and a return touchdown to even keep it close. They moved the chains at a mere 54.55% rate, while the Seahawks moved them at a 67.86% rate. On the season, they rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That suggests they’re not quite as bad as their record suggests and they’re not, especially when you take into account the brutal schedule they’ve played thus far. They started the year on the road in San Diego and Minnesota, a pair of possible playoff teams, and then week 3, when they finally got a home game, it was against Denver, another strong team. Starting the season with two road games puts a team at a serious disadvantage, not because it makes it hard to build momentum, but because teams that have their home opener week 3 usually don’t play that well that week. They cover the spread only about a third of the time and are generally less energized, as a result of all of the travelling they have to do to start the season. And then, of course, Detroit had to go to Seattle last week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win.

Given all of that, I don’t think the Lions are going to be one of the worst teams in the league all season. They also get key defensive player DeAndre Levy back this week, after he missed the first 4 games of the season with a hip injury, and right guard Larry Warford is also expected to play, after being limited to 97 snaps thus far this season with injury. It’s not all good in injury land, as starting defensive tackles Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker will both miss this week, Ngata with a week-to-week injury and Walker after being put on injured reserve with a broken ankle last week, ending his season. However, Levy returning is the biggest deal out of all of those injury developments. Things are looking up for the Lions overall.

That being said, they’re probably going to have to wait another week to get their first win, as they once again face a very tough opponent, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals lost their first game of the season last week, at home against St. Louis, but they did win the first down battle 26 to 13 and move the chains at a higher rate than the Rams in that 2 point loss, so they definitely didn’t play badly. They only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and that tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams with a turnover margin of -3 in a game, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week, so the Lions won’t be able to count on turnovers to help them win this game, even after winning the turnover battle in Seattle last week.

The Cardinals still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, even after last week’s loss, but it’s important to remember that their schedule has been the opposite of Detroit’s, as they’ve faced New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, and St. Louis. There’s a good chance that, even without any wins, the Lions are the best team they’ve faced thus far. Still, if I had to pick, I’m taking the Cardinals against the spread as 3.5 point road favorites here, though I’m not confident at all, especially with the public all over Arizona. The Lions should be able to get off the snide next week, when they host Chicago. The Lions are in a good spot with no upcoming distractions, ahead of that easy game against the Bears, but the Cardinals also are, as they head to Pittsburgh next week to take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, and, like I said, if I have to pick, the Cardinals should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

No other team has been as successful in the first 3 weeks of the season as the Arizona Cardinals. Not only do they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, they also rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains and 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed. Of course, they’ve also had arguably the league’s easiest schedule, beating New Orleans (0-3), Chicago (0-3), and San Francisco (1-2), none of whom seem likely to even sniff the post-season. The Rams might be the toughest opponent they’ve had yet and they’ve not very good either, 1-2 and also unlikely to sniff the post-season. I’m curious to see if the Cardinals, who are playing drastically better than they did last season, can keep it up once the schedule gets tougher, but we won’t find out this week.

The Cardinals are only favored by a touchdown here, despite the fact that they’ve won their first 3 games by an average of 25.67 points per game, winning each game by at least 12 points. As a result, the public is all over them, as the Cardinals as the most heavily backed team this week thus far. Typically I like to fade the public on heavy leans because they always lose money in the long run, but they might have the right side in this one. In addition to being significantly inferior to the Cardinals, the Rams are also in a terrible spot with another tough game, a trip to Green Bay, on deck. Teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again and the Rams are expected to be 9 point underdogs next week. Arizona, meanwhile, goes to 0-3 Detroit next. I’m not that confident, but Arizona should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Through 2 games, the Arizona Cardinals rank #1 in the league in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s only been two games, against a schedule that hasn’t been tough (New Orleans and Chicago), and it’s important not to forget that they ranked 17thiin that category in 2014. However, Carson Palmer has played very well in his return from injury and the Arizona defense also looks good again, despite some off-season losses. Again, they’ve had a weak schedule, but now they get big free agent acquisition guard Mike Iupati back from injury and I don’t think the 49ers are much better than the teams the Cardinals have already destroyed this year.

The 49ers started the season out well, beating Minnesota at home week 1, but then last week in Pittsburgh they looked like the bottom dwelling team most expected them to be this season, following an 8-win 2014 season and an off-season full of losses. I think the 49ers’ play week 2 is more representative of their talent level and how their season will go. As a result, I think we’re getting line value with the Cardinals as only 6.5 point home favorites. This line kind of reminds me of the line in San Francisco’s game in Pittsburgh last week, when they were 6.5 point road underdogs and got blown out. Pittsburgh and Arizona have similar talent levels.

It does help the 49ers that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-81 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 282-395 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

However, the 49ers are also in a bad spot, with a home game against the Green Bay Packers, one of the biggest games of their season, on deck. The early line has San Francisco as 6.5 point home underdogs, an appropriate line and bad news for the 49ers’ chances this week. Since 2012, teams are 65-105 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-73 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-48 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. The reason for all three of those trends is the same: it’s very tough for NFL players to be completely focused with a huge home game on deck. Unlike last week, when I took Pittsburgh for a big play against San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Cardinals this week because there is conflicting stuff, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

Earlier in the week, I really liked Chicago here as 2 point home underdogs and was strongly considering putting money on them. The Cardinals had an impressive performance last week at home against the Saints, but that was at home and the Saints aren’t that good. The Bears aren’t that good either, but the Cardinals aren’t at home anymore. The Cardinals are 30-12 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007, but they have no such advantage on the road.

For that reason, they don’t deserve to be 2 point road favorites here. They have Carson Palmer back from injury, but they’ve already lost Andre Ellington with injury again and they weren’t as good as their 11-5 record last season. Arizona’s 11-5 record was buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and their +11 point differential was 2nd worst among qualifying playoff teams. The Cardinals also benefitted from tough to sustain things like a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, and a +4 return touchdown margin. They finished the season just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams.

They’re not that much better than a Chicago team that is improved over last season and gave the Packers a fight last week. Jay Cutler should bounce back from the worst season of his career, the addition of Eddie Royal will help make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall, while the addition of Pernell McPhee more than makes up for the loss of Stephen Paea and Tim Jennings defensively. They also should have significantly fewer injuries than they did in 2014, when they were one of the most injury prone teams in the NFL. Importantly, guys like Matt Slauson and LaMarr Houston are back, after missing large chunks of last season. Neither one has a history of injuries so both should bounce back to their original form, which is consistently above average.

I don’t have the Bears as a playoff team or anything, but they were better than their 5-11 record last season (24th in rate of moving the chains differential) and I think they’re better this season than last season. I’m not going to put money on the Bears though, because both top receiver Alshon Jeffery and top edge rusher Pernell McPhee are serious question marks with injury and the line hasn’t really done anything to adjust to that. If the line moves to three or both of those guys end up playing, I may reevaluate, but, for now, I’m just taking the Bears for a low confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 20 Arizona Cardinals 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: Low

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