Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5)

The Cardinals proved themselves last week to be a very good football team, going into Seattle, where no one has won in two years, and winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams rarely are able to overcome a -2 turnover margin, winning just about 17.7% of the time. Winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is hard; winning as double digit underdogs despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is even harder. In fact, that was just the 5th time a team had done that since 1989, rising the winning percentage of double digit underdogs who lose the turnover battle by 2 to 4.0%.

It wasn’t just last week. The Cardinals are doing a very impressive job on the season. They are moving the chains at a solid 71.22% rate, while their strong defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.37% rate, a differential of 2.86% that ranks 11th in the NFL. They’re a comparable football team to their opponents here, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers rank a little higher, coming in at 8th, moving the chains at a 70.70% rate, as opposed to 67.20% for their opponents, a differential of 3.50%. However, these are definitely comparable teams. In spite of that, the Cardinals are 1.5 point home underdogs here. Rate of moving the chains differential suggests this line should be closer to 2 in favor of Arizona, so we’re getting some significant line value here.

That doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is a much better home team than road team. Arizona has been money at home this season, going 6-1, as opposed to 4-4 on the road. It’s not just their record. It’s how much they’re winning by and who they are beating. They are outscoring opponents by 10.57 points per game at home, which includes that home loss, which came against Seattle. Their average margin of victory is 14.33 points per game. In that 6-1 record is two wins by double digits over likely division winners Indianapolis and Carolina (by a combined 45 points) and a win over a Detroit team week 2 that was much better to start the season than to end the season.

This home dominance is nothing new. Since 2006, they are 42-25 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.37 points per game. On the road, they are 22-44 over that time period, getting outscored by 6.12 points per game. Given that, I don’t think the normal 3 points for home field advantage is appropriate for this team. On top of that, when they are underdogs or small home favorites (2.5 or less), they’ve essentially been an auto-bet over that time period, going 29-12 ATS. Whenever they just need to win to cover a spread at home, they usually get the job done and that’s the case here. Now that they have arguably their best team of that time period (remember, even in their NFC Championship year in 2008, they went 9-7 in the regular season), they are an incredibly tough team to beat at home, as I demonstrated earlier.

The 49ers haven’t done a good job this season against tough opponents. Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have both been incredible this season against bad teams, teams that are currently .500 or worse, going 9-0 in those games, winning by an average of 18.56 points per game. Colin Kaepernick has completed 137 of 216 (63.4%) for 1965 yards (9.10 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns on 52 carries.

However, against teams that are currently better than .500, they are just 2-4, with both wins coming at home. In those games, Colin Kaepernick is 85 of 166 (51.2%) for 922 yards (5.55 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 197 yards and no touchdowns on 36 carries. The Cardinals’ tough defense is even tougher at home and could easily give Kaepernick a lot of trouble. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is doing a terrific job this season and will have a great game plan to confuse Kaepernick and he has the personnel to execute it, led by Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Patrick Peterson, all of whom are playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber level.

The one concern and the reason why this isn’t a bigger play: teams are 36-56 ATS since 1989 off of a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. It makes sense. Pulling off a huge upset like that tends to make teams overvalued and overconfident and they can experience a hangover effect when they fall back to earth the next week. However, there are two things that nullify that to an extent here. One, I don’t think the Cardinals are overvalued here. As I illustrated earlier, I actually think the Cardinals are undervalued, in spite of last week’s huge win.

On top of that, for whatever reason, the line moved from a pick ‘em to 1.5 in favor of San Francisco over the past week, despite Arizona’s big win. We didn’t lose line value. In fact, just the opposite happened. Two, the Cardinals absolutely need this win to stay alive in the playoff race so that could nullify some of their overconfidence and the potential hangover effect. It’s still a concern, which is why it isn’t a bigger play, but there’s enough here for me to be pretty confident in Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

Seattle at home is pretty much an auto-bet. They’ve been incredible at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 38-17 ATS at home, including 22-9 ATS as home favorites, and 11-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 14 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 18.57 points per game.

The Cardinals are a solid football team, better than average in fact. They move the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.45% that ranks 11th in the NFL. The Seahawks are obviously very good as well, moving the chains at a 73.77% rate, as opposed to 67.41% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 4th in the NFL. Using those, we can calculate the line at about 7 (the differences between the differentials plus 3 for home field).

However, that assumes that Seattle has a normal home field advantage, which they don’t. If anything, their home field advantage should be worth about 6 points. Since 2007, they outscore opponents by about 7.64 points per game at home by about 1.26 points per game in general. The difference between Seattle being at home and being at a neutral field in a sense is about 6, 6.5 points. If we use that for home field advantage, we get that this line should be around 10 or 10.5, which is exactly where it is.

Arizona also isn’t a very good road team. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and only won by a field goal over Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The only road win by more than a field goal they have came against Jacksonville, who is probably the worst team in the NFL. If the Cardinals lost by double digits in San Francisco and New Orleans, why wouldn’t they lose by double digits in Seattle? Even if we assume that playing in the Superdome is comparable to playing in Seattle, the Cardinals lost by 24 in New Orleans and I think playing in Seattle is even harder, at least this year.

The Seahawks are also in a couple of excellent spots as well. They have no upcoming distractions on the schedule as they just have to host the Rams next week. Teams are 42-25 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which they almost definitely will be for the Rams next week, given that they are for a superior Cardinals team. On top of that, they are riding quite a hot streak right now after shutting out the Giants at home last week. Tends tend to ride that into the next week, going 41-22 ATS since 1989 after shutting out a team on the road. I like Seattle a good deal this week.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Titans, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8)

One thing people who make picks way too often fail to do is look at who the team plays next. In this case, the Cardinals play arguably the best team in the NFL next week when they go to Seattle, while the Titans play arguably the worst team in the NFL next week when they go to Jacksonville. That matters. The Cardinals could easily not be focused here for the non-conference Titans when a trip to divisional Seattle for one of the biggest games of the season is on deck. Teams are 36-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. Making matters worse, they face San Francisco the following week. Those two games are going to be so much more important for this team.

The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams usually cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, going 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more. It might not seem like the Titans will be favored by more than a field goal in Jacksonville, but, remember, they were favored by 12 points at home over the Jaguars a few weeks ago. On top of that, the Texans were favored by 3.5 points in Jacksonville last week and the Bills are favored by 2 points there this week. The odds makers don’t have a lot of respect for the Jaguars (and rightfully so).

Even if, for whatever reason, they don’t end up being favored by that much in Jacksonville, they’re still in a very good spot simply because they will be road favorites of some amount in Jacksonville next week. Non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites cover at one of the highest rates I’ve ever seen, going 41-11 ATS since 1989.

The lowly Texans covered in this situation two weeks ago against the Patriots, before going to Jacksonville, where they lost. The Titans are in the same situation. The odds makers won a lot of money with that one as the public was all over New England. The same thing is true here. Combining the situation the Cardinals are in and the one the Titans are in, teams are 13-5 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

This line is a little big anyway. I don’t understand how the Cardinals are giving a field goal to the Titans in any situation, let alone this one. The Cardinals are a good football team, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 68.41% for their opponents, but the Titans are also pretty decent, moving the chains at a 70.76% rate, as opposed to 71.67% for their opponents. The Cardinals are 8th in differential, while the Titans are 17th. That suggests this line should be around 1, at most, in favor of Arizona.

This line suggests the Cardinals would be favored by 9 at home. Last week, the Cardinals were favored by 6 over St. Louis at home. The Rams are not 3 points better than the Titans. The Titans were favored by 3 in St. Louis a few weeks ago and covered in a touchdown victory. The Cardinals also aren’t as good on the road as at home. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and their only wins were against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, who each started the season 0-8. As long as this line is 3, giving us field goal protection, Tennessee is my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects.

However, the Rams have to host the Saints next week so they might not be able to be focused enough to compete here. Teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 5 in favor of New Orleans.

We’re also not getting any line value either way as this line is right around where it should be. The Cardinals rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, 20th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. I have this line calculated at 6, which is exactly where it is. We can’t even fade the public because the public is also split almost completely. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Cardinals because of how fluky some of the Rams’ victories have been this season, but I have no confidence at all.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (+4)

Record: 7-4

The Cardinals would definitely be in the playoffs in the AFC, but they’re going to have a hard time getting in as a wild card in the NFC. The 49ers hold the tiebreaker and are the better team, while the Saints and Panthers will probably both get in and both could win 12 games. The Cardinals could end up with 10 wins. It wouldn’t surprise me. However, 11 or 12 wins could be the magic number for the 6th playoff spot in the NFC. If only they were in the NFC East. Is it too late to move them or have them change conferences?

Week 12 Studs

WR Michael Floyd

RE Calais Campbell

CB Jerraud Powers

CB Patrick Peterson

Week 12 Duds

LT Bradley Sowell

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Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)

The Eagles snapped their 10 game home losing streak before the bye against the Redskins, beating them 24-16 in a game that wasn’t really even as close as that final score. The big difference was they had Nick Foles under center. Foles proved his first home start of the season, against the Cowboys, was a fluke. That game is clearly the outlier of his season, as he completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys’ terrible defense there.

On the season, he’s playing out of his mind, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 9.59 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s the real deal. He might not consistently go 162 attempts without throwing an interception and 7 of his 16 touchdowns did come in one game, but he’s proven himself as a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. His coaching situation doesn’t hurt. Like he did with Michael Vick, Chip Kelly is getting the most of Foles.

On one hand, I don’t want to lose more money going against Nick Foles (Washington was my Pick of the Week last week). However, I also don’t want to overcorrect and be all over Nick Foles. Foles could struggle, by his 2013 standards, off of the bye now that he’s officially been anointed the starter and now that he’s had two weeks to hear how good he is. Arizona is also by far the toughest defense he’s faced thus far this season. There’s a big difference between Arizona and Washington, who has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and has since proven themselves as one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. The Eagles’ win over them doesn’t seem as impressive now. There also still might be something to the Eagles’ home struggles.

On paper, the Cardinals appear to be the better team, which is not what this line would suggest. The Cardinals rank 9th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Eagles are better than that now that Foles is under center, but I’m still concerned about their defense and I’m concerned about how Foles will handle Arizona’s tough defense, especially now that he’s had two weeks to hear how great he is.

The Cardinals are also in a good spot as they are a distraction free underdog, hosting the Rams next week. Teams are 114-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Again, I don’t want to lose anything else betting against Foles and I really wish we were getting more than a field goal with the Cardinals because I think this could be a field goal game, but I’m taking the Cardinals for a no confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

I maintained all along that the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0 for a season. Winless teams are 24-5 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989 so I’m not surprised at all that Jacksonville was able to go into Tennessee and beat a distracted Titans team. That shouldn’t change what anyone thinks about this team. They’re still one of the worst teams of the decade and easily the worst team in the NFL this season.

Their point differential is -176. No one else is worse than -78 (Houston, NY Giants). Football Outsiders has them at -62.3% in terms of DVOA. No one else is worse than -35.9% (Oakland). In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -8%. Arizona isn’t a fantastic team or anything, but they’re at least average. They move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th. In terms of DVOA, they are 12th. 9 points might seem like a lot to be giving with the Cardinals on the road, but it’s pretty reasonable.

Now that the Jaguars have a win, they won’t catch teams off guard as easily and they can get back to what they were doing for the vast majority of the season, which was losing to anyone and everyone by 10 points or more. They’re also in a bad spot after last week’s win. Since 1989, teams are 46-67 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-28 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. I’m not confident in the Cardinals because I hate laying more than a touchdown on the road with anyone (7.5+ road favorites are 5-17 ATS since 2011), but if I had to pick a side, I’d take Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 5-4

It might sound crazy, but if the 49ers lose in New Orleans this week, and the Cardinals win in Jacksonville, they’ll have the same record at 6-4. I don’t expect that to hold until the end of the season, but the Cardinals are a solid football team. They’ve beaten both Detroit and Carolina, two likely playoff teams, this season. Ultimately, poor quarterback play in the loaded NFC will probably keep them out, but they shouldn’t be taken lightly at all.

Week 10 Studs

RE Calais Campbell

LOLB John Abraham

MLB Karlos Dansby

Week 10 Duds

RT Eric Winston

LG Daryn Colledge

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