Cardinals

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

The Cardinals are 3-0 right now, but they’re incredibly overrated. Do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction for the rest of the season.

Bettors should also take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week). As a result of this, home favorites are 3-12 ATS since 2008 after a win as a home dog (15-23 ATS since 2002, 38-51 ATS since 1989). The Cardinals could easily be overconfident in this one after 3 not as impressive as they seem wins against the “lowly” Dolphins, especially just a few days before a Thursday Night divisional matchup with the Rams.

Now onto the “lowly” Dolphins. They’re not as lowly as they seem. In fact, both they and the Cardinals have the same yards per play differential, which suggests this line should be -3, instead of -6. The Dolphins’ offense is completely inept, but their defense is not bad at all. They were the league’s 6th ranked scoring defense last year and this year they’ve picked up right where they left off. This should be a low scoring game and the Cardinals don’t have the type of offense to be 6 point favorites against a good defense. The Dolphins are also in a good situation. Teams that nearly pull off upsets as a home dog (loss by 3 or fewer) are 58-40 ATS in their next game since 2002.

Injuries will play a factor in this game as both Reggie Bush and Darnell Dockett are key players who are questionable for the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively. Dockett’s injury is bigger because he’s a key player on defense for them, such a key unit given their offense’s mediocrity. Bush is also more likely to play because he practiced today, while Dockett did not. Besides, in his absence last week, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas didn’t look too bad.

I don’t love any one single play this week, but this is one of my favorite and a co-pick of the week. Arizona is overrated and struggles on offense. Against a tough and underrated defense, there’s no way they should be laying more than a field goal. If they win, it’ll be a game similar to their first 2 (by 3 and by 2), rather than last week, when Philadelphia imploded on themselves. Arizona won last week largely because they were +3 in the turnover margin. However, turnovers are very unpredictable on a week to week basis. Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

They’re also in a prime letdown situation as home favorites after 3 straight upset wins. San Francisco is better coached, more proven, and more legitimately talented than the Cardinals are and even they bought into their own hype last week. Expect a similar result from Arizona this week against a similarly underrated team, especially with a divisional clash coming up in just 4 days.

The other thing I like in this game is that the public is pounding Arizona and predictably so. The general perception is that Arizona is a legitimate 3-0 team, while Miami is terrible, so Arizona should easily beat them by a touchdown. If this year is any indication, the general perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year.

This game fits that description and yet the line is still dropping, indicative of a trap line. It also curiously didn’t move from last week to this week, despite Arizona’s huge win, as it was -6 last week and opened this week at -6.5 (it’s now dropped to -6 or -5.5). The odds makers want as much money as possible coming in on Arizona, probably because they know something the general public doesn’t understand, which is that these teams aren’t that unevenly matched, as their yards per play differential would indicate. Smart bettors won’t fall for their trap and will ride the correction against Arizona.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIA 16 ARZ 5

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Miami Dolphins 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Miami +6 (-105) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+7)

Record: 3-0

Like the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch, do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction and take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week).

Studs

QB Kevin Kolb: 17 of 24 for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 108.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 29 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 scrambles, 4 of 7, 1 throw away, 1 touchdown)

RB Ryan Williams: Rushed for 83 yards (59 after contact) on 13 attempts, 5 broken tackles, 1 catch for 12 yards on 2 attempts

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 9 passes for 114 yards on 9 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

SS Kerry Rhodes: 1 catch for 14 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Calais Campbell: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback pressures on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, no tackles

ROLB Sam Acho: 2 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback pressures on 29 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RB Beanie Wells: Rushed for 18 yards (13 after contact) on 8 carries

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Paris Lenon: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 19 blitzes

LE Darnell Dockett: 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Believe it or not, this is a matchup of 2-0 teams. Philadelphia being 2-0 isn’t that farfetched, but anyone who told you that they had Arizona starting 2-0, with a week 2 clash in New England on the schedule, is either lying or the biggest Arizona homer in the world or didn’t look at the schedule or some mix of all three. No one saw that coming and it killed about half of the survivor pools out there including mine. Side note, I almost wrote at the end of the New England/Arizona write up that I was so confident New England would keep your survivor pools alive that if Arizona won, I would shave my pubes, glue them to my face, and run naked through the streets of Boston, but I didn’t want to sound ridiculous (phew).

However, I’m still not sold on Arizona. They’ve got a great defense, but I don’t trust either of these quarterbacks (it’ll be Kevin Kolb again in this one) and neither of their running backs has been able to get anything going as they’ve rushed for just 148 yards on 53 carries in their first 2 games. Another side note, that’s actually 28th in the league. 4 teams have rushed for worse totals than that. Why can’t anyone run the football this year (17 teams under 4.0 YPC)? Anyway, eventually the Cardinals’ offense is going to have to play better if they want to win games consistently and I don’t give them much chance of doing that here at home against a Philadelphia team that has one of the best defenses in the league.

The Cardinals actually have a negative points per play differential (thanks to a 4.2 yards per play average that is tied for 2nd worst in the league), which does not bode well for their future and which suggests they can’t keep this up. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the league’s best points per play differential. Still, they’ve barely won both of their games because they’ve turned the ball over 9 times and possess a -3 turnover differential that is tied for 2nd worst in the NFC.

Turnovers were a huge issue for them last season, turning the ball over 38 times. Turnovers, however, are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis (which is why I love the yards per play differential stat, because turnovers aren’t a factor). Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season. The Eagles have been an exception to that statistic so far this season, turning the ball over 9 times in 2 games, but you have to figure, eventually their turnovers will become less of a problem and turnovers aside, this has been the best team in the league over the first 2 games.

As I said in the preseason, they’re one of the most talented teams in the league (even though they’re expected to be without Jeremy Maclin in this one) and they should be able to get a blowout win here, even on the road, against a fluky Arizona team. Arizona is home dogs of 3+, but unlike home dogs of 7+, I don’t have much of a problem betting on home dogs of 3-7. Home dogs of 3-7 are 215-257 since 2002, so there’s not much of a trend there as there is with 7+ home dogs (98-78).

One trend does work against the Cardinals. Teams coming off upset wins as dogs of 13+ are 14-29 ATS since 1989. I’d feel  a little bit more comfortable if this line was -3 and I had field goal protection. However, I feel like this one isn’t going to be very close and I’m putting a pretty big play on the road team.

Public lean: Philadelphia (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -4 (-105) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+7)

Record: 2-0

The Cardinals are one of only 6 undefeated teams left in the NFL, but they’re by far the weakest of the bunch. They’ve been outgained in each of their first 2 games, but won anyway, and have a negative yards per play differential and are tied with Jacksonville for the worst yards per play rate at 4.2. They’ve got a nice defense, but I still don’t trust either of their quarterbacks and neither of their running backs have gotten much going on the ground. Eventually, they won’t be able to just rely on their defense and you can’t win consistently in the NFL without winning the yardage battle.

Studs

RT Bobby Massie: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

RE Calais Campbell: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 45 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Patrick Peterson: Allowed 2 catches for 18 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles and 2 stops

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 48 pass rush attempts, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback pressures on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 3 carries

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 4 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

RB Ryan Williams: 13 yards (21 after contact) on 10 carries, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 10 yards on 2 targets

RB Beanie Wells: 44 yards (18 after contact) on 13 carries, caught 1 pass for 24 yards, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 1 pass block snap

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 1 pass for 2 yards and a touchdown on 1 target on 30 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

LOLB O’Brien Schofield: Did not record a pressure on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cardinals will start Kevin Kolb this week

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

With John Skelton nursing a high ankle sprain that could keep him out 2-4 weeks, it appears Ken Whisenhunt has had his quarterback controversy solved for him as Kevin Kolb will start this week and possibly into the future. Kolb was actually the superior of the two quarterbacks last season. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Skelton led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5.

Either way though, the Cardinals would appear to be pretty screwed this week going into New England and going forward into the season in general. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

They may be 1-0, after beating the Seahawks in Arizona, but that’s not a huge accomplishment because the Seahawks were starting a 3rd round rookie quarterback with a subpar offensive line and a mediocre receiving corps and because the Seahawks suck on the road. Things get much tougher for them going forward and no matter who the quarterback is, they figure to be one of the worst teams in the league.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1)

Kevin Kolb looked good in relief of an injured John Skelton last week, leading the game winning drive to beat the Seahawks, but the Seahawks are a mediocre to average team that always seems to flop on the road. The Patriots in Foxboro are going to obviously be a much tougher challenge. The offense has taken on new dimensions with the addition of Brandon Lloyd as a deep threat, the promotion of the more explosive Stevan Ridley at running back, and the re-addition of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator; they didn’t even need Wes Welker in the opener.

Welker barely did anything. They have so many weapons that it didn’t even matter. They can still have a great game even if one of their top 4 receivers doesn’t do anything. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line, a concern heading into the game, held up just enough to allow everyone else enough time to keep open and Tom Brady to find them.

Defensively, they seem to be much improved from last season. Last year, like the Packers, they gave up a bunch of yards like the Packers did, but did alright defensively because they forced a bunch of turnovers. Forcing a bunch of turnovers is not something that’s reliable on a yearly basis, but unlike the Packers, the Patriots’ defense seems to have gotten even better, particularly in the front 7; their secondary may still have some questions, but they have a big, physical offensive front with Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Rod Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and adequate depth.

They can get pressure against anyone, pressuring Locker on 14 of 36 dropbacks, against a Tennessee offensive line that surrendered the 2nd fewest sacks in the league last year, and they are fierce against the run, holding to 20 yards rushing on 16 attempts, with 11 of those coming on 2 quarterback scrambles.

This doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. The Cardinals found no running home against a tough Seahawks run defense last week, rushing for 43 yards on 20 carries and this week shouldn’t be much difference. Meanwhile, they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so the Patriots should be able to get pressure on Kevin Kolb early and often, which is a very bad thing for the Cardinals.

Even though Kolb looked decent in very limited action last week, leading a game winning drive, it doesn’t change the fact that Kolb has very poor pocket presence. Kolb took a sack on 26.1% of pressured dropbacks last year, 3rd worst among eligible quarterbacks, and in 2010 he was 6th, taking one on 23.2% of pressured drop backs. Even with the Patriots’ less than stellar secondary, Kolb should have trouble consistently moving the ball against the Patriots’, unsupported by a running game, and since the Patriots’ offense can put pressure on the opposing offense better than maybe any team in the league, he could be forced into several turnovers.

This should be a very easy win for the Patriots, especially since the Cardinals are travelling across the country to play 1 PM ET start as a West Coast team, a situation teams tend to struggle in. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league and the Cardinals are one of the worst. This isn’t a very big bet, because this is a huge line, but all signs point to this being a blowout. This is also my choice for survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does that type of thing (last week, it was Houston).

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

New England Patriots 38 Arizona Cardinals 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England Patriots -14 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 1-0

Consider me unimpressed by the Cardinals’ win over the Seahawks. The Seahawks were a poor road team starting a rookie 3rd round quarterback on the road in his 1st start with no offensive supporting cast, except a running back who was hurt. I had the Cardinals winning 3 games before the season and picked them to win this weekend. Nothing surprised me. Nothing changed.

Studs

LE Darnell Dockett: 3 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback pressures on 45 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, and 2 missed tackles on 25 run snaps

MLB Daryl Washington: 9 solo tackles, 7 stops, and 2 missed tackles on 29 run snaps, 1 sack, 1 quarterback pressures on 13 blitzes, allowed 3 completions for 36 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

QB John Skelton: Completed 14 of 28 for 149 yards and 1 interception, 2 hit as throwns, 3 batted passes, 1 drop, adjusted QB rating of 60.2, pressured 13 times

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: 1 sack and 5 quarterback pressures allowed on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

RG Adam Snyder: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

RB Ryan Williams: 9 yards (6 after contact) on 8 carries, 1 fumble, 2 catches for 17 yards on 3 targets, 1 quarterback pressure allowed on 2 pass block snaps

LOLB O’Brien Schofield: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 37 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackle, and 1 stop on 27 run snaps

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Beanie Wells injures hamstring in practice, Cardinals list him as questionable

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

The Cardinals, unfortunately, had to update their injury report to including Beanie Wells after he hurt his hamstring in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable and will probably be a game time decision. Wells certainly has an injury history and missed most of this offseason with knee problems, so this is not a good sign as he tries to hold off the now healthy 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, who outplayed him in the preseason, for the starting running back job.

If Wells can’t go, Williams will see the bulk of the carries against Seattle and he’s probably the superior back so they might not miss Wells much. If Williams were to get the start, he’d be fantasy startable, even with a tough matchup. The problem is that this game is a 4 o’clock start and since it’s a game time decision, owners of Wells and Williams probably won’t know until many of the alternatives have already started. If you start Wells and he doesn’t play, your options to replace him will be limited, and vice versa if you start Williams and Wells does play. The Seahawks have a very stout run defense, 4th in the league last year, so it’s advisable to stay away from Arizona’s backfield this week.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals extend MLB Daryl Washington

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cardinals, Offseason Moves 2012

Washington was Arizona’s leader in tackles last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker, grading out above average against the run, in coverage, and as a blitzer, adding 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he has a good chance to make his first Pro Bowl in 2012. Washington, a 2010 2nd round pick, still had 2 years left on his rookie contract, but, with no players of note heading into contract years, the Cardinals decided to lock him up now.

I’m not normally a fan of when teams give players a new deal after just 2 years in the league and they’re also overpaying him a little bit. He’s getting an extra 32 million of new money over an extra 4 years, though no word yet on the guaranteed money amount. Similar caliber players like Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years. In a passing league, non-rush linebackers like Washington just aren’t worth that much, with rare exceptions.

Look at the deal Patrick Willis got 2 years ago. Willis got 7 years, 53.51 million with 29 million guaranteed. Washington is getting more yearly than him and he’s only played 2 years and never been a Pro-Bowler. The Cardinals are taking a big risk here projecting that Washington will continue to improve and jump from above average to elite. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no real reason to make this move now. Make him prove it first.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams, with Wilson doing so here for the Seahawks. The one major difference between Wilson and the 4 other guys on that list is that he was not a 1st round pick. The history of non-1st round picks starting week 1 since 1994 is not pretty. There have been only 4 to do so before Wilson. They all listed below.

Chris Weinke 2001- 4th round pick, 54.3%, 5.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions

Quincy Carter 2001- 2nd round pick, 51.1%, 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions

Kyle Orton 2005- 4th round pick, 51.6%, 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

Andy Dalton 2011- 2nd round pick, 58.1%, 6.6 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

There’s a reason why non-1st round pick quarterbacks start so infrequently as rookies. This makes a lot of sense. Rookie quarterbacks in general struggle more than the rest of the league and non-1st round picks don’t exactly have a history of success in the NFL, especially recently. Wilson will be one of just 9 non-1st round pick starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

NFL drafting is generally a crapshoot. However, the one thing NFL teams seem to be pretty foolproof at doing is not letting starting quarterbacks fall out of the 1st round of the draft. Obviously, not all 1st round pick quarterbacks work out, but it’s almost impossible to find a starting quarterback after the 1st round. If you possess the baseline tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, you’re going to go in the 1st round, even if your accuracy or footwork or mechanics needs a lot of work. Almost always, if a quarterback falls out of the 1st round, it’s because there’s something majorly wrong with him, something preventing him from being a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Could Russell Wilson follow in Andy Dalton’s footsteps and buck the trend? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m not going to predict it. Wilson had a strong preseason, which is how he won this job, completing 63.5% of passes for 8.5 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. However, only one of his games came against a 1st team defense and the preseason is generally meaningless because both offenses and defenses are using such vanilla schemes. Expecting Wilson to defy history because of how he fared in a few preseason games is ridiculous.

That being said, Wilson is better than John Skelton, Arizona’s quarterback. John Skelton had an awful preseason, completing 56.0% of his passes for an average of 5.2 YPA and 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. This is more meaningful than Wilson’s numbers because it’s basically what we’ve seen from Skelton in his career. In his career, he’s completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions (in case you were wondering, Skelton was a 4th round pick). He led the Cardinals to a 6-2 record in 8 games last year, but largely because his defense allowed 19.0 points per game in those 8. Skelton led the Cardinals to 1.29 points per drive last season, which would have ranked 28th in the league last year. He’s not the answer at quarterback for the Cardinals (neither is Kevin Kolb), but he probably won’t have that much worse of a season than Wilson.

Skelton is also working with the far better receiving corps, while Wilson has a slight edge on the offensive line (though neither is very good). The Seahawks will have the edge on the ground if Marshawn Lynch can play, but if he can’t (he’s currently suffering from back spasms), then, all of a sudden, Arizona’s duo of Chris Wells and Ryan Williams, running behind an actually decent run blocking offensive line (for as awful as their pass protection is, Arizona was actually ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked run blocking offensive line last year), gets the edge over Robert Turbin and Leon Washington for the Seahawks. Defensively, things are pretty evenly matched. Seattle had the edge last season, allowing just 19.7 points per game to Arizona’s 21.8, but Arizona allowed 18.3 points per game in their final 9 games last year, as their young defense finally came into its own. Seattle also lost David Hawthorne this offseason and had several players have career years last year, something that might not happen again.

These teams are actually pretty evenly matched. I think Seattle is the better team, but it’s going to be a close, low scoring game either way in Russell Wilson’s debut (remember how much rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle and those were mostly 1st rounders). This line should be something like -2 or -3, in favor of Arizona, the home team, (3 points is for home field advantage). Instead, it’s the opposite, -3 in favor of the road team. Seattle is a notoriously bad road team, going 11-31 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road since 2007. In fact, NFC West divisional games are typically won by the home team. This makes sense as the NFC West typically features evenly matched teams that are better at home than on the road. NFC West teams are 87-81 SU at home over the past 5 seasons and 47-117 SU on the road. Over that time period, NFC West teams are 23-35 ATS on the road in the division.

I’m taking Arizona here and it’s one of my favorite plays of the week. I think Seattle, as a team, is being overrated right now because of Russell Wilson’s strong preseason, when, in reality, history says he’ll struggle this season and I expect that to be especially true early in the season. We’re getting a lot of line value here. I don’t like Seattle, a bad road team, as road favorites against a fairly evenly matched team (especially, potentially with the Seahakws minus Lynch) in a division when divisional matchups tend to be won by the home team (both SU and ATS).

Arizona Cardinals 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: Arizona +3 (-120) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]