Chargers

San Diego Chargers sign WR Steve Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Steve Johnson had three straight thousand yard seasons from 2010-2012, despite questionable quarterback play in Buffalo. However, in the past 2 seasons he’s barely combined for 1000 yards, catching a combined 77 passes for 1032 yards and 6 touchdowns. That might lead you to think that he’s struggled in back-to-back seasons. That’s not entirely true. While he did struggle in 2013, he was simply underutilized last season in San Francisco.

Johnson was incredibly efficient in limited action last season for the 49ers. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver on just 305 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He caught 35 passes for 435 yards on 49 attempts (71.4%) and 204 routes run (2.13 yards per route run). He’s also graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus. Johnson should be better utilized in San Diego and has a chance to put up some solid overall numbers again.

Given that, I like this signing. It’s relatively cheap (10.5 million over 3 years) with likely little to no money guaranteed beyond 2015. It’s also a good fit as the Chargers needed to replace Eddie Royal slot receiver, who signed a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal with the Bears. Johnson comes cheaper than Royal would have (and Royal signed a reasonable deal) and should be able to come close to matching Royal’s 2014 production 62/778/7. On top of that, while he has plenty of experience in the slot, he’s not a pure slot receiver like Royal was so he can play outside if needed, in the likely event of a Malcom Floyd injury (given his age and history).

Grade: A-

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San Diego Chargers sign S Jimmy Wilson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

It’s hard to love this move as it likely means Jimmy Wilson will likely be the starter in the secondary for the Chargers in 2015. He’ll play Marcus Gilchrist’s old role as a hybrid safety/cornerback, moving to the slot in sub packages with Jahleel Addae coming in at safety. It fits his skill set as he’s versatile, playing both cornerback and safety in Miami, but I like him more as a 3rd cornerback or safety. He should be more of a 500-600 snap player than a 1000+ snap player like Gilchrist has been the last 2 seasons. He played a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was their primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Louis Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Reshad Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014 though, making it twice in three seasons that he’s done that.

However, the Chargers are getting a very solid value with this 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal with 1.25 million guaranteed. Wilson isn’t that much worse than Gilchrist, who signed a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal with the Jets. Ron Parker, a comparable talent with less experience, got 5-year, 25 million from the Chiefs and this is certainly a better deal than that one. The Chargers didn’t have a ton of cap space left after signing King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers, and Orlando Franklin to reasonable deals so I definitely don’t hate the idea of getting Wilson cheap and trying to mask his deficiencies with talented defensive backs like Eric Weddle, Brandon Flowers, and Jason Verrett.

Grade: A-

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San Diego Chargers sign G Orlando Franklin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Two off-seasons ago, the Broncos stole one of the Chargers’ offensive linemen, signing Louis Vasquez to a 4-year, 23.5 million dollar deal with 13 million guaranteed. That worked out well. This off-season, the Chargers return the favor by signing ex-Bronco Orlando Franklin to a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed. Like the Vasquez deal, it’s a very solid value and will really help this team, especially given how bad their offensive line has been in recent years. Franklin will probably start at left guard in San Diego, where he played in Denver last season, but he also has experience at right tackle and could end up there in the future if DJ Fluker continues to struggle in pass protection. That versatility definitely is part of his value.

Franklin isn’t just versatile. He’s also good. Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. He’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. I think Franklin is a better overall player than Mike Iupati, who got 40 million over 5 years from the Cardinals, so this is definitely a good deal.

Grade: A-

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San Diego Chargers re-sign CB Brandon Flowers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Flowers was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013, which led to his release from Kansas City, but, aside from that, he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that, and then he bounced back in 2014, grading out 15th with the Chargers on a one-year prove it deal.

The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season and this 4-year deal worth a total of 36 million is a very good value for him, considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Byron Maxwell is expected to clear 10 million annually.

Grade: A

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San Diego Chargers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Guard

Chad Rinehart and Johnnie Troutman were awful last season at guard for the Chargers, grading out 73rd and 77th respectively out of 78 eligible. Chris Watt, a 2014 3rd round pick, was decent as a rookie on 496 snaps at both guard and center. He should have a bigger role in 2015 and could easily be a future starter, but they need someone else who can start opposite him at the very least.

Offensive Tackle

Guard wasn’t their only issue on the offensive line last season. In fact, far from it. Left tackle King Dunlap was the only offensive linemen to play a snap for the Chargers and grade out above average and he’s a free agent this off-season. Right tackle DJ Fluker struggled, grading out below average for the 2nd straight season to start his career, after the Chargers drafted him with the 11th overall pick in 2013. Even if Dunlap is re-signed, they need help at the position. Dunlap is going into his age 30 season, while Fluker’s future might be at guard. I’d be surprised if the Chargers didn’t bring in some sort of offensive lineman with their first or second round pick and that offensive lineman could easily start week 1 in 2015.

Center

You guessed it. The Chargers need help at the center position as well. Nick Hardwick was the Chargers’ long-time center, but he played just 16 snaps this season, going down for the year week 1 with a serious neck injury that forced him to retire, ahead of age 34 season. In Hardwick’s absence, 4 different players started games at center for the Chargers and all 4 of them graded out below average. Best case scenario, Dunlap is re-signed, Fluker moves inside to guard, Watt moves to center, and they need to find two new starters at left guard and right tackle.

Defensive End

Corey Liuget and Kendall Reyes were the starters at 3-4 defensive end for the Chargers last season. Both are going into their contract year in 2015 and Reyes has been horrible over the last 2 seasons anyway. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst 3-4 defensive end in both 2013 and 2014. Top reserve Ricardo Mathews is a free agent this off-season as well.

Cornerback

The Chargers had arguably the worst cornerbacks in the NFL in 2013, so they spent their first round pick on Jason Verrett and signed Brandon Flowers from Kansas City. It worked out pretty well at the start of the season as both played very well, but then Verrett got hurt and their lack of depth showed. Shareece Wright, who was horrible as a starter in 2013, ended up having to play 853 snaps in 2014 and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible. Wright is a free agent this off-season anyway. Verrett will be back healthy in 2015, but Flowers was only signed to a one-year deal, so he’s a free agent again. If he’s not brought back, they’ll really need help at the position and, even if he is, depth will still be needed.

Running Back

Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead were a solid running back duo in 2013, but both got hurt early in 2014, leaving undrafted rookie Branden Oliver to lead the team in carries. He flashed at times, but predictably struggled overall, rushing for 582 yards and 3 touchdowns on 160 carries, an average of just 3.64 YPC. As a result, the Chargers averaged 3.43 yards per carry this season, 31st in the NFL, only ahead of Arizona. Danny Woodhead will be back healthy in 2015, but he’s more of a passing down back than a starter. Donald Brown was brought in as insurance last off-season, but he couldn’t even see playing time ahead of Oliver, as he averaged a pathetic 2.62 yards per carry on 85 carries. He could easily be cut this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 3 million in 2015. Cutting him would save 1.92 million on the cap immediately. If the injury prone Mathews isn’t re-signed, they’ll have a big need at the position.

Outside Linebacker

Melvin Ingram was a first round pick by the Chargers in 2012, but he’s largely been a disappointment. He’s graded out below average in two of three seasons, missed 19 games in 3 seasons with injuries, and maxed out at 518 snaps. He’ll be back in 2015, but that should be his contract year as I don’t expect the Chargers to pick up his 5th year option for 2016. Meanwhile, Jarret Johnson and Dwight Freeney are going into their age 34 and age 35 seasons respectively. The former is expected to be a cap casualty or consider retirement, while the latter is a free agent who could also consider retirement. If neither of those two are back in 2015, that would leave the Chargers with Ingram and Jerry Attachou, a 2014 2nd round pick who played 182 snaps as a rookie, at the position. Attachou should have a bigger role in 2015, but depth would obviously be needed in that situation.

Wide Receiver

Malcom Floyd, Keenan Allen, and Eddie Royal were the Chargers’ top 3 receivers last year, but Floyd is going into his age 34 season and last year was just the 2nd season of his career where he played all 16 games. He’s missed 28 games over the past 7 seasons combined. On top of that, Eddie Royal is a free agent. The Chargers like Dontrelle Inman, a CFL import who flashed down the stretch last season, but the mere 123 snaps he played last season was the first NFL action of his career so he’s incredibly unproven.

Safety

Marcus Gilchrist has started all 32 games at safety for the Chargers over the past 2 seasons combined and he’s done a decent job, but he’s a free agent this off-season. The Chargers don’t have a good internal replacement, so if he isn’t re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Key Free Agents

CB Brandon Flowers

Brandon Flowers was a top-9 cornerback on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2009 to 2012, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that, but he fell all the way to 85th in 2013, weirdly the only season he went to the Pro-Bowl. Instead of giving him a chance to bounce back in 2014, the Chiefs cut Flowers last off-season, which turned out to be a big mistake, as Flowers bounced back all the way to 15th and with divisional rival San Diego no less. Flowers now hits free agency for the 2nd time in as many off-seasons, but he should get much more than the one-year prove it deal he got last off-season. Only going into his age 29 season, Flowers is one of the best, if not the best cornerback available on the open market this off-season.

RB Ryan Mathews

Matthews has talent, but injuries are a serious issue, as he’s missed 20 games in 5 seasons in the league since the Chargers made him the 12th overall pick in 2010. Mathews rushed for 678 yards and 7 touchdowns on 158 carries (4.29 YPC) in 12 games as a rookie and looked primed to become one of the better backs in the NFL after a strong 2011 season that saw him rush for 1091 yards and 6 touchdowns on 222 carries (4.91 YPC). He also had 50 catches that season. However, Mathews did not live up to the expectations in 2012, missing another 4 games, seeing just 184 carries and being limited to 3.84 YPC when on the field. Mathews finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries, an average of 4.40 YPC (though he only caught 29 passes, significantly fewer than the 50 he caught in 2011). Unfortunately, he did that only to miss 10 games with injury the following season, rushing for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns on 74 attempts, an average of 4.46 YPC. Mathews likely isn’t going to become more durable as he goes into his age 28 season so, while he’s talented, any team that signs him needs to have a good insurance policy.

OT King Dunlap

King Dunlap, a 2008 7th round pick, made a career high 12 starts with the Eagles in 2012, after making just 6 starts in his first 4 seasons combined. He graded out above average, but only got a 2-year, 3.7 million dollar deal in free agency the following off-season, signing in San Diego. Dunlap won the starting job in San Diego and more than lived up to his contract, making 27 starts in 2 seasons (all at left tackle) and grading out above average in both seasons, including 6th in 2013. Dunlap is going into his age 30 season in 2015, but still should get starter’s money on the open market, if the Chargers don’t reach an agreement to bring him back before then.

OLB Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney bounced back from a 2013 season where he missed 12 games with injury. In 2014, he played all 16 games, making 9 starts, playing 590 snaps, and grading out above average, as he’s done in every season of Pro Football Focus’ history, since 2007. The issue is Freeney is now going into his age 35 season so he’s near the end of the line. He should still get starting caliber money this off-season, but I don’t expect him to get any guaranteed money beyond 2015.

WR Eddie Royal

Eddie Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 touchdowns as a 2nd round rookie in 2008, but combined for just 138 catches for 1361 yards and 5 touchdowns from 2009-2012 combined. Royal bounced back over the past 2 seasons though, catching 47 passes for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2013 and 62 catches for 778 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014, grading out above average in both seasons. Royal should get a decent amount of money on his next contract to be someone’s #2 or #3 wide receiver.

S Marcus Gilchrist

Marcus Gilchrist was a 2nd round pick of the Chargers’ in 2011. He struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league at cornerback, but was moved to safety in 2013 and ended up making all 16 starts and grading out 20th at his position. Gilchrist graded out below average in 2014, but he wasn’t terrible, he made all 16 starts again, and I still expect him to get starting caliber money this off-season. He won’t break anyone’s bank though.

CB Shareece Wright

The Chargers took Shareece Wright in the 3rd round in 2011 and he played sparingly in his first 2 seasons in the league, playing a combined 124 snaps. Wright got a bigger role over the past 2 seasons, but he’s been a trainwreck. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. Going into 2014, the Chargers brought in Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency to send Wright to a #3 cornerback role, but an injury to Verrett forced Wright to play 853 snaps and make 14 starts. He once again struggled, grading out 105th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He won’t get much on the open market as he’s only a depth cornerback at best.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OLB Jarret Johnson

The Chargers signed Jarret Johnson to a 4-year, 19 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago, but he was only a part-time player with the Chargers, specializing in stopping the run off the edge in base packages, maxing out at 556 snaps. Now he’s going into his age 34 season, owed a non-guaranteed 5 million, an amount the Chargers can save on the cap immediately by releasing him ahead of his contract year. He’s been a solid player for a long-time, but he graded out below average last season and in two of his last three seasons and isn’t worth his salary. Close to the end of the line, Johnson reportedly will consider retirement this off-season.

RB Donald Brown

The Chargers signed Donald Brown to a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal last off-season and it was a weird deal. That was the highest average salary a running back got on the open market last off-season and the Chargers didn’t appear to have a huge need at the position with Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead in the fold. Well, Matthews and Woodhead both got hurt in 2014, opening up an opportunity for Brown, but he only rushed for 223 yards on 85 carries (2.62 yards per carry). Even with Matthews heading to free agency, Brown could be released this off-season, a move that would save 3 million in cash and 1.92 million immediately on the cap. A first round pick bust of the Colts’ in 2009, Brown has never topped 134 carries in a season, has a 4.09 career YPC average, and is useless on passing downs.

TE John Phillips

Phillips is a decent player, but he only played 202 snaps last season as the 3rd tight end behind Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. Both Gates and Green will be back in 2015, so there isn’t a need to pay Phillips 1.45 million non-guaranteed. The Chargers would save that entire amount on the cap by cutting him.

G Chad Rinehart

Rinehart started 16 games in 2014 for the Chargers at left guard, but, as I mentioned earlier, he was a disaster, grading out 73rd out of 78 eligible guards. Rinehart signed a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal last off-season after grading out below average in 2013 and the Chargers can save 3.25 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season. Rinehart hasn’t been the same since a significant ankle injury he suffered in 2012 with the Bills.

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San Diego Chargers re-sign OT King Dunlap

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

King Dunlap, a 2008 7th round pick, started 6 games in his first 4 seasons combined, but he’s started 39 games (38 at left tackle and 1 at right tackle) over the past 3 seasons, 2012 with the Eagles and 2013 and 2014 with the Chargers. He graded out 37th in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014. The big 6-9 310 pounder took a while to put it all together, but he’s developed into an above average offensive tackle and he’s only going into his age 30 season so he has at least a couple years left at that level most likely. This 4-year, 28 million dollar deal has an average salary of 7 million dollars of 16th in the NFL, which might be a little bit of an overpayment, but this isn’t a bad contract at all, especially for a team that has as many problems on the offensive line around Dunlap as the Chargers do.

Grade: B

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, but that’s because the Chargers were in a terrible spot (the worst spot I’ve seen all since), with a Thursday Night road game in Denver on deck, while the Chiefs only had a home game against St. Louis on deck. This time, the Chargers are the one in the good spot. Not only are they generally very good in December (going 26-5 straight up and 21-10 ATS in weeks 14-17 since 2007), but they’re in their 2nd of two road games, which is usually a good spot.

Teams are 84-61 ATS as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs since 2002, including 53-38 ATS when it’s a team’s 2nd of two scheduled road games. On top of that, teams are 17-9 ATS since 1989 when that road win as underdogs came in overtime, including 11-5 ATS in the 2nd of two scheduled road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

Even before you take into account that the Chargers are in a much better spot in this game than they were the first time around, the Chargers are in a great revenge spot. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (40-42) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The reason I’m not that confident in San Diego is because rate of moving the chains differential suggests the Chiefs are the better team, which isn’t what this line suggesting, with the Chiefs as 2.5 point favorites. The Chiefs rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.10% rate, as opposed to 70.56% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 12th, moving the chains at a 74.19% rate, as opposed to 73.32% for their opponents, a differential of 0.87%. I wish this line was still at a field goal, as it was last week. I’m still going with the Chargers, but the line would have to be at least 3 points for me to put any money on it and I might not even do so if that were the case.

Update: Alex Smith has been surprisingly ruled out of this one, after doctors discovered that he suffered a lacerated spleen during last week’s loss to the Steelers. The line has moved from San Diego +3 or +2.5 to +1 as a result. Obviously I wish Smith the best, but this is good news from a gambling perspective for two reasons. One, the Chargers are still underdogs here so those aforementioned two trends still apply. Two, the line really didn’t move a ton, as two points doesn’t really do justice for the job that Alex Smith has done this season.

Smith has completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 254 yards and a touchdown on 49 attempts. His quarterback rating of 93.4 is 14th in the NFL and Pro Football Focus has him as their 16th ranked quarterback. He’s led Kansas City’s offense to a 74.10% rate of moving the chains that ranks 13th in the NFL, despite a poor offensive line, no threats at wide receiver, and no offensive playmakers outside of under-utilized tight end Travis Kelce and running back Jamaal Charles. Those two are obviously still healthy and going to play in this one, but Chase Daniel is a steep dropdown from Smith at quarterback, especially since he’s barely practiced this week.

Daniel played reasonably well in a meaningless week 17 game against the Chargers last season, completing 21 of 30 for 200 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions, but he’s still an unproven former undrafted free agent. The Chargers have a better defense this season and will be much better prepared for Daniel this time around, especially since Daniel has minimal practice experience with the offensive starters, wasn’t expecting to start this week, and might not be equipped to deal with the pressure of a must-win game. The line value that originally made me hesitant to take San Diego is gone, so, as long as the Chargers are still underdogs in this one, I have confidence taking them.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: San Diego +1

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7)

The public is all over the Chargers here. It’s understandable. The 49ers have lost 3 straight games, haven’t covered since week 11 in New York against the Giants and haven’t covered at home since week 13 of last season. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and Jim Harbaugh is basically a goner. However, these players will all still play hard for themselves and the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much.

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public and the odds makers have different ideas about which team is going to win and which team should be favored, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. If the Chargers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the people who set lines for a living still have San Francisco favored?

Fading the public does make sense this week. As I mentioned, the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much. The Chargers move the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.33% that ranks 14th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 18th, moving the chains at a 70.59% rate as opposed to 71.36% for their opponents, a differential of -0.77%. The 49ers lost Ray McDonald, a valuable defensive lineman, this week, releasing him after it came out that he was being investigated for violence against a woman for the 2nd time this year. They’ll also be without talented linebacker Chris Borland.

However, the Chargers are going to be without both Keenan Allen and Ryan Mathews this week, while Philip Rivers reportedly is playing through a serious injury, which would explain why he’s struggled mightily over the past 2 weeks. The Chargers generally are very good in December, but they didn’t cover at home against either Denver or New England in the last 2 weeks and neither game was really that close. As long as Rivers is playing through a significant injury, missing his top two offensive weapons, I don’t think the Chargers’ past December success is relevant to this game.

The Chargers are also in a tough spot with another very important game in Kansas City on deck next week, so it’s possible they somewhat overlook a struggling non-conference opponent. Teams are 51-83 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers host the broken down Cardinals next week. If this line does move to San Diego being favored before game time, that would put them in a bad spot because teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. It’s hard to be confident in the 49ers, but they should be the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-5)

Denver is the best team in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.73% rate, as opposed to 71.29% for their opponents, a differential of 6.44%. However, this line is still too high at 4.5. San Diego has a solid squad as well, moving the chains at a 73.91% rate, as opposed to 73.51% for their opponents, a differential of 0.40% that ranks 15th in the NFL. This line should be around a field goal, according to that. That might not seem like a significant difference, but considering 3 and 4 are both key numbers, it is, especially with the public all over the Broncos once again.

On top of that, the Chargers have typically been an auto-bet late in the season, since 2007. They’ve gone 25-4 straight up and 20-9 ATS in weeks 14-17 over that time period. They didn’t cover last week against New England, but that’s because New England is the only team comparably good to the Chargers late season over that time period (26-3 SU, 16-12 ATS). They should have better luck this week against Denver, especially since home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play for the Broncos is because they’ll be 4 point favorites in Cincinnati next week and teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. However, I still like the Chargers as long as the line is above 4 here.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +175

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)

On the season, the Patriots are moving the chains at a 78.05% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 4.90% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers move the chains at a 74.93% rate, as opposed to 73.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.29% that ranks 13th in the NFL. That suggests that this line is too high at 4, especially since the Patriots haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home over the past 2 seasons.

While they are undefeated 15-0 at home over the past 2 seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.93 points per game, they are just 7-8 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.20 points per game and going 5-10 ATS. This season, they are moving the chains at a 76.06% rate on the road, as opposed to 74.48% for their opponents, a differential of 1.58%. Meanwhile, they move the chains at a 79.73% rate, as opposed to 71.86% for their opponents, a differential of 7.87% at home.

However, when you consider that the Patriots have been significantly better since week 5, both at home and on the road, this line makes more sense. Their offensive line has settled in, Rob Gronkowski is back to 100%, and the braintrust of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick has made the mid-season adjustments once again, as they always do. Since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 82.37% rate, as opposed to 73.68% for their opponents, a differential of 8.69%. On the road since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 84.62% rate, as opposed to 74.44% for their opponents, a differential of 10.17%.

On top of that, the Patriots are in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. This line is a lot more appropriate when you consider that they’ve been much better since the first 4 weeks of the season and that this is their 2nd straight road game.

The Patriots are in a bad spot as an East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast, a situation teams cover in only about a third of the time because of how circadian rhythms work. However, the Patriots flew to San Diego right after the Green Bay play and will have spent a week there so there shouldn’t be any jetlag issues. Bill Belichick understands this stuff. The Chargers are also in a bad spot as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs next week with Denver coming to town. Teams are 15-30 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is 32-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. I’m taking the Patriots, but I’m not that confident.

New England Patriots 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -4

Confidence: Low

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