Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)

I’m going to keep this one short. If you bet any money on this game, you’re a degenerate gambler. Seek help. Kansas City has already locked up the 5 seed in the AFC. Andy Reid, like he did several times in Philadelphia, will only play his starters for a series or two, much like a pre-season game, and then get his 2nd team some reps, so guys can rest for the playoffs.

It’s the right call. Some people seem to believe Reid should play his starters for momentum purposes, whatever that means, but there’s no evidence that there’s any benefit to that. Since 2002, teams that lose week 17 are 15-15 in the first round of the playoffs. Teams who win week 17 are 29-29. What there is evidence for is that it is possible for a bone to break or a muscle or ligament to tear during a week 17 game. Keep your guys healthy and focus on the playoffs. Momentum doesn’t exist.

San Diego, meanwhile, could have the meaning from this game sucked out of it before it even starts. The only way they can make the playoffs is if both Miami and Baltimore lose. Both of those teams play in the earlier time slot, while the Chargers play in the late afternoon slot. Chances are, one of those teams will win their game and eliminate San Diego before this one even starts. They could still give it their all in spite of that and play for future jobs and playing time and they’ll certainly be game planning all week like it’s a meaningful game. However, would you really blame them for giving it less than 100% hours after getting eliminated? And also, how do you game plan for an opponent’s 2nd string?

That brings me to my 2nd point. How good is Kansas City’s 2nd string? Probably not very good, but how not very good? Are they better than every NFL’s teams 1st strings? Also, how much will Andy Reid rest his starters? Will they play one drive? Will they play two? Will he only rest his stars and play the rest of his starters? What constitutes a star? How good is Kansas City with some starters? How good are they with starters playing one drive? How good are they with starters playing two drives? How am I supposed to figure this one out and will San Diego even be in a position we’re they’re taking this one seriously? How did the odds makers even come up with a spread for this one? Where did 9.5 come from? Do the odds makers even know or did they just throw a dart at a board? I think San Diego will probably win this game, but that’s about where the even semi-confident predictions stop.

I do have to give a pick, for my own records and for people with ATS pick ‘em leagues, so I’m going with San Diego, for two reasons. One is simply to fade the public, who seems to be very confidently on Kansas City for whatever reason. The public always loses money in the long run (probably because they bet on ridiculous games like this) so it’s a good idea to be on the opposite side of them. That’s a good tiebreaker when you need one.

The 2nd reason is because I feel San Diego is an underrated team. They are 8-7, but 5-2 in games decided by more than a touchdown and just 3-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 78.56% rate, as opposed to 75.33% for their opponents, a differential of 3.22%, which ranks 9th in the NFL. They would deserve to be 9.5 point favorites over anyone from St. Louis (23rd in rate of moving the chains differential) and worse.

I don’t know how to compare whatever Kansas City is coming with this week vs. the St. Louis Rams, but the Rams are probably better, though, again, I don’t know what San Diego’s mental state is going to be. However, because the Chargers are underrated, I’m going to assume we’re getting line value with them somehow, fade the public and take the Chargers, gun to my head. But again, if you bet money on this game, seek help.

Side note: I just read the first sentence of this and saw that it said “I’m going to keep this short” and realized I wrote over 750 words. Apparently I’m incapable of keeping it short because I just wrote 750 words on how I don’t know anything about this game. Maybe I should seek help.

San Diego Chargers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -9.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at San Diego Chargers (7-7)

Both of these teams are in bad spots this week and both of those have to do with Denver. Oakland has to deal with Denver next week so they might not be completely focused for the Chargers here, at least not enough to keep it close. Teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Raiders almost certainly will be next week. Going off of that, the Raiders will probably be double digit home underdogs next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs and teams are 16-40 ATS since 2002 before being double digit home underdogs, including 3-14 ATS before being divisional double digit home underdogs. Furthermore, teams are 22-45 ATS in their first of two or more straight games as double digit underdogs since 2002. The Raiders are in no position to be keeping this one close and covering this spread this week.

However, the Chargers are in a bad spot as well after last week’s win in Denver. Teams are 35-56 ATS since 2002 after a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. The Chargers got an emotional upset victory last week and that could cause a hangover effect this week, especially against such a lowly opponent. That win also caused a huge line movement as this line went from 7.5 to 10 in the span of a week.

That being said, the Chargers aren’t in as bad of a spot as the Raiders are and they’ve had extra rest to prepare for this game, as it was on a Thursday Night, so that could counteract some of the hangover effect. On top of that, while the line movement did cost us some line value with the Chargers, we’re still getting value with them and not the Raiders, even at 10. The Chargers are a legitimately very solid team, while the Raiders are one of the worst in the NFL.

The Chargers move the chains at a 78.71% rate, as opposed to 76.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.71% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th, moving the chains at a 67.49% rate, as opposed to 73.56% for their opponents, a differential of -6.08. That suggests this line should actually be around 11.5. I’m not that confident in the Chargers because we could see a letdown game from them, but they should be the right side against a bottom-5 team that has a bigger game next week. The Chargers are also my Survivor Pick of the week.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)

Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.50 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while leading the Broncos to 42.3 points per game. The Broncos have surpassed 35 points per game in 6 of 7 home games this season, with the exception being against a Kansas City defense that was the best in the NFL in points per game allowed at that point, when the Broncos “only” hung 27.

As a result, the Broncos have won all 7 home games by an average of 20.43 points per game and they’ve covered in every game except for one, when they were 27 point favorites over Jacksonville, the largest line in NFL history, and “only” won by 16. They’ve also won every game by at least 10 points, with the closest being against a solid Kansas City team, which is very relevant considering this line is at 10. Their home dominance is nothing new as they are 12-4 ATS at home since Peyton Manning came to town last season, with one of those ATS losses being in the playoff game to Baltimore.

The Broncos will essentially be able to name their point total against San Diego this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.32% rate. The Chargers are a solid football team. In fact, they move the chains at a 78.29% rate, which is not only better than their opponents, but the 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver (81.54%). They’ll be able to move the ball against a vulnerable Denver defense (72.04%), but not nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos. Even if the Chargers are an average football team, the Broncos have beaten the average football team by 20.43 points per game this season at home and no one has been closer than 10.

Especially helpful is how good Peyton Manning is at night. I don’t know if he’s a vampire or something, but he’s 31-13 ATS in night games since 2003, including 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights. The Broncos also have no distractions here with a trip to Houston on deck. Teams generally cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, which the Broncos will almost definitely be against one of the worst teams in the NFL next week. Teams are 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more.

The Chargers also don’t have any distractions this week, which is part of why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. They host the lowly Raiders next. Double digit underdogs before being favorites are 50-32 ATS since 2002. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 60-38 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more since 2002, including 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more before being favorites of 7 or more. However, I don’t think that helps them out enough to keep this one close. This is going to be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 45 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants here as they are in the midst of a playoff race, but it might be unavoidable. It’s going to be very, very hard for them to get up for a non-conference opponent they see every 4 years with that game up next.

The Chargers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. The early line has them has 11 point underdogs and a few weeks ago they were underdogs of a touchdown at home against the Broncos (and failed to cover). Teams generally really struggle before being double digit underdogs because they get caught looking forward to such a big game. Teams are 34-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010.

The fact that this game is on Thursday Night Football doesn’t help matters. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. This is a near impossible situation for the Chargers to succeed in. I personally believe the Chargers are a better team than the Giants. The Chargers rank 12th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 27th, moving them at a 69% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents.

However, it’s not always about that. We’re getting more than a field goal here, which makes me more willing to take the Giants in spite of my personal opinions about these two teams. The Giants have been playing better football of late as their turnover problem has predictably corrected itself. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and came close to beating Dallas. Granted none of those teams were very good, but it’s hard to argue the Chargers are significantly better. The Giants are also a dominant road team and have been since the beginning of the Tom Coughlin era in 2004. They are 34-19 ATS as road dogs in that time period. This is my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 5-6

You could argue the Chargers have a better offense this year than the Broncos. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 81% for the Broncos, who now rank 3rd behind San Diego and New Orleans. Philip Rivers is having a career year in terms of quarterback rating, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 8.52 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, good for a 106.6 QB rating, which is barely off of Peyton Manning’s 114.5 QB rating. He’s doing this without much of an offensive supporting cast and is ProFootballFocus’ highest ranked quarterback in terms of passing grade. Unfortunately, the Chargers also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

LG Johnnie Troutman

SS Marcus Gilchrist

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Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers could be completely flat off of last week’s insane last second win in Kansas City. Favorites generally struggle off of close road wins as underdogs, going 27-51 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer as road favorites since 2002. However, they are only favored by 1 point and the Chargers probably won’t overlook the division leading Bengals when they need every win they can get to stay in the playoff race. The Chargers usually do well with must win games late in the season. They are 32-10 straight up during weeks 13-17 in the Philip Rivers era and, given that, it’s no surprise that they are 11-4 ATS in situations where they essentially need to just win, as underdogs or favorites of 3 or less.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They’ve lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore (3 of those losses came as favorites) and won by just a field goal in Buffalo and Detroit. All 6 of those teams have worse records than they do. They are 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. They’re also coming off of a fluky game in their last game, a home win over the Browns. In that game, they scored 41 points despite just 10 first downs, the first time in at least the last 25 years that a team had done that. They won’t be able to dominate the turnover battle, block 2 punts, and have multiple return touchdowns every week. Since 1989, teams are 16-34 ATS off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that scenario.

However, the Bengals have had a bye in between so maybe that will nullify some of that. I also don’t think they are overvalued. They are moving the chains at just a 72% rate, but their defense has held up despite injuries and opponents are moving the chains at a mere 68% rate. They may have some trouble with the Chargers’ explosive offense, which leads the NFL, moving the chains at an 82% rate, but, as good as the Chargers’ offense is, their defense might be equally bad, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate.

If Alex Smith and the Chiefs can have an explosive offensive performance against them, so can Andy Dalton and the Bengals, even on the road. The Chargers get into a lot of shootouts and this could be another one. I think this line is actually right where it should be with San Diego favored by just a point. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Philip Rivers and the Chargers at home in December over the Bengals on the road, but it could really go either way.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -1

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were 23rd in the NFL in points per drive. They proved that they weren’t as good as their record by failing to cover an 8 point spread in Denver last week in a 27-17 loss.

They have an elite defense for sure, but their offense might actually be one of the worst in the NFL. They’re way too reliant on winning the turnover battle (+15), return touchdowns (+7), and recovering fumbles (66.7%), three things that are tough to rely on consistently. They aren’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re not as good as their record. Football Outsiders has them 9th in DVOA, which I think is very reasonable.

The public still seems to be overrating them as they are all over them as 5.5 point favorites here. I think this might actually be a little high. The Chargers are better than their record. They are 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They move the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which ranks 12th. In terms of DVOA, they are 16th. With the Chiefs moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 66% for their opponents, I have this line calculated at about 5 and even that might be too high.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. This is a sandwich game for them in between both Denver games. Teams are 74-96 ATS as favorites after a loss as underdogs before being underdogs once again since 2008. Meanwhile, since 1989, teams are 13-29 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional home dogs. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. They lost in Miami in this same sandwich game spot last week, which is probably part of why they are being undervalued. Finally, favorites are 28-42 ATS as favorites off of their first loss week 6 or later since 1989. It’s a strong play on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +190

Pick Against Spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Chargers are in an obvious sandwich game spot here in between a loss at home for Denver and a game in Kansas City next week. Teams are 74-95 ATS since 2008 as favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Since 1989, teams are 29-45 ATS as road favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Road favorites are 37-50 ATS off of a home loss as underdogs since 1989. Also since 1989, non-divisional favorites are 24-40 ATS off a loss as divisional underdogs before being divisional underdogs again. It makes sense. Why would San Diego put forth a ton of effort for Miami in between arguably the two biggest games of their season?

However, Miami could also still be very distracted with the whole Incognito/Martin situation. At the same time, enough time might have passed that they are more motivated to silence their critics than distracted, especially after last week’s embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay. It’s really tough to know and that makes this a tough pick. Also, Miami is not as good as their record. Distractions weren’t the only reason Miami lost in Tampa Bay. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Their off-season spending spree has not paid off and being without two starters on their offensive line doesn’t help. The Chargers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. That suggests they should be favored by about 3.5. I’m going to take San Diego on pure talent, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 23

Pick against spread: San Diego -1.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+2)

Record: 4-5

There’s no shame in losing at home by 8 to the Broncos, especially when you match them score for score, but lose because you had to settle for two field goals. It’s no surprise the Chargers were able to move the ball with the Broncos, because their rate of moving the chains is 2nd only to Denver (82%). Their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, is a huge problem, but the AFC is weak enough that they could still sneak a playoff spot. The big concern is that King Dunlap might have suffered his 3rd concussion of the season, which could put him out a while. The cheap free agent signing has been one of the better left tackles in the game this season.

Week 10 Studs

None

Week 10 Duds

TE Antonio Gates

CB Shareece Wright

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