Chargers

San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (-1)

Record: 4-4

The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from 7-1. They blew a big lead to the Texans week 1. They lost on a late touchdown in Tennessee. And last week, they were a half yard away from the winning touchdown. However, they are currently at 4-4 and their schedule gets tougher from here on out, including 4 games against Denver and Kansas City. They also play Cincinnati. They have played well enough to be a playoff team, moving the chains at an 83% rate, as opposed to 81% for their opponents. However, I think they’ll get left out.

Week 9 Studs

QB Philip Rivers

WR Keenan Allen

LT King Dunlap

LOLB Jarret Johnson

Week 9 Duds

TE Antonio Gates

LE Kendall Reyes

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)

Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for instance, is 9-1 ATS off of a regular season bye since 2004, in his last 10 instances. The Broncos are in a very good position here as 7 point road favorites after a bye.

The Broncos are also in another good spot as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 38-22 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Broncos are a dominant team with a league leading +125 points differential. They’ve won 6 of their 8 games by 16 or more and they should win this one here by at least 7 with a bye off to prepare for the Chargers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 38 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5)

One of the most powerful trends in the NFL says that road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. Road favorites are significantly superior teams and significantly superior teams tend to use the extra week very well and dominate their inferior opponent. The Chargers are road favorites in some places, but only of a point and they are also pick em elsewhere and 1 point underdogs in other places, so it’s not clear cut.

I do think they deserve to be road favorites though. They may just be 4-3, but they are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and they are 3-1 in games decided by more than a touchdown, as opposed to 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are winning despite getting killed in turnovers, -6, as a result of a league worst 15.4% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue going forward.

Their offense has been incredible as Philip Rivers is playing at a borderline MVP level with a marginal at best offensive supporting cast. He’s been rejuvenated with new Head Coach Mike McCoy. He is completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and ProFootballFocus grades him as the #2 passing quarterback behind Peyton Manning. He is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, which is incredible, only behind Denver.

They have plenty of problems on their skeleton crew defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, good for a differential that is 9th best in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, sit at 23rd, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Chargers deserve to be road favorites by at least a couple points here and, coming out of a bye, they have a very good chance of winning in a shootout, against a very even line.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play though. One is that they aren’t really true road favorites. The other is they could be much more distracted than Washington with a home game against Denver on deck. The Redskins, meanwhile, go to Minnesota next week so they don’t have any distractions. Again, I know they aren’t true road favorites, but for reference, non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home favorites, including 2-9 ATS when their opponent will next be non-road favorites. Favorites in general are 45-80 ATS before being dogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2010. I like San Diego to win a shootout, but I’m not confident.

San Diego Chargers 34 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-4)

Record: 4-3

An 18 point win in Jacksonville doesn’t sound that impressive, but this is a franchise used to letdown games after big wins in the Norv Turner era. They had one this year in new Head Coach Mike McCoy, losing in Oakland after beating Dallas, but they avoided it in a big way last week. They are still moving the chains at an incredible rate offensively, 83%, only behind Denver in that aspect. They aren’t great defensively, as opponents move the chains at a 79% rate, but their differential is still 8th in the NFL. Mike McCoy deserves a ton of credit for leading a team that doesn’t have a ton of talent to some impressive things and he deserves some Coach of the Year votes, especially if the Chargers can make an improbable playoff run in the AFC.

Week 7 Studs

QB Philip Rivers

LG Johnnie Troutman

SS Marcus Gilchrist

Week 7 Duds

TE Antonio Gates

CB Johnny Patrick

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

What an accomplishment for the Jacksonville Jaguars! They covered the spread last week for the first time and this season, only losing to the Broncos by a mere 16 points. In all seriousness, the Jaguars could be kind of flat after putting everything they had into that game and coming up short. Now they return home to face the Chargers. In case you didn’t already know this, the Jaguars are pretty bad. Even last week’s performance, their best of the year, would have been a 22 point game if they didn’t pick off Peyton Manning and return it for six (they failed on the 2 point conversion attempt). Justin Blackmon returning has provided a boost, but not one that losing Eugene Monroe, Luke Joeckel, and Cecil Shorts doesn’t nullify.

They are moving the ball at a 61% rate offensively, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a 17% differential that is easily the worst in the NFL. They’ve lost every game this season by 10 points or more, which is relevant because this line is only 7.5 points. The Chargers are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They beat the Colts at home last week. That doesn’t mean they are better than the Colts, just like their loss to the Raiders doesn’t mean they are worse than the Raiders, but they were able to take advantage of a superior opponent in a trap game spot and win pretty convincingly. Their defense has been terrible, allowing opponents to move the chains on 80% of opportunities, but their offense has been dynamic, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities. This line is too low.

On top of that, the trends favor the Chargers. The Jaguars have another rough game next week with the 49ers coming to town so they might not be as focused as they need to be. Since 2010, teams are 31-64 ATS before a game in which they will be double digit underdogs, which the Jaguars almost surely will be next week. On top of that, teams are 33-50 ATS as home dogs before being home dogs again. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a bye week up next, so they have no distractions. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. Vastly superior teams usually take care of business going into a bye.

This would be my Pick of the Week if it wasn’t for three things. One, I’m concerned the Chargers could fall flat off of a home upset win, like they did in Oakland. Two, this is a 1 PM East Coast Time start for a West Coast team. Three, favorites of more than a touchdown on the road have not been covering over the past 3 seasons, going 3-16 ATS in that situation. However, the Colts covered as 9 point favorites in a 37-3 win in Jacksonville earlier this season, so this is still a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -7.5

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (+2)

Record: 3-3

I wasn’t shocked about the Chargers’ win over the Colts. The Colts were in an obvious trap game spot between a home upset win over the Seahawks and an impending battle with former quarterback Peyton Manning and the undefeated Broncos. The Chargers have a great offense that moves the chains with proficiency (82% moving the chains on the year), which was able to keep a Colts offense, which seemed distracted to begin with, off the field. I’m not moving them up much for that reason. They’ll have to prove they can handle success, unlike last time, when they upset the Cowboys at home and then proceeded to lose in Oakland. Their defense also remains one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate.

Week 6 Studs

LT King Dunlap

FS Eric Weedle

Week 6 Duds

LG Johnnie Troutman

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Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)

I was dead wrong about the Colts this season. In my defense, the logic was sound. The Colts were not an 11 win team last year. 7 of their 11 wins came by a touchdown or less against a team that finished with a record of 7-9 or worse. They had a terrible offensive line and defense and finished the season 25th in DVOA, which I think is a much more accurate measure of level of play than record. They started the season basically playing the way they did last year, almost losing to the Raiders at home and then losing at home to a solid Miami team.

However, in the three weeks since, they’ve blown out the 49ers in San Francisco, the Jaguars in Jacksonville, and beaten the Seahawks at home. Andrew Luck has had a fantastic year in his 2nd year in the league, as a result of his own development, an improved offensive line, and a new offensive system for which he’s a better fit. His completion percentage is up 8.1%, his yards per attempt up 3/10 of a yard, and his touchdown to interception rate has improved from 23/18 to 7/2. Defensively, off-season additions have made an impact, as has the presence of Head Coach and defensive mind Chuck Pagano, who is fortunately in remission after missing most of last season with cancer. They have moved the chains 83% of the time offensively, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is tied for 2nd best in the NFL with Denver, and only behind New Orleans.

All that being said, I actually love San Diego in this spot this week. They’re no slouch because of their offensively dominance this season. Philip Rivers been very impressive, completing 73.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, as the offense moves the chains on a very impressive 81% of opportunities. He’s doing that without much of a supporting cast. Mike McCoy needs to be given a ton of credit. The defense is pathetic, allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities, and they were even worse against the Raiders with Dwight Freeney now out for the season. They made Terrelle Pryor look like John Elway. However, the Chargers can definitely pull the upset in the right situation and I think this is the right situation.

The Colts are coming over from the Eastern Time Zone to the Western Time Zone to play this game at night. The game will start around 8:30 in the internal clocks of the Colts and go to about midnight. Meanwhile, it will run from about 5:30 to about 9 in the internal clocks of the Chargers. That gives them a significant difference. Since 1989, Western Time Zone teams are 47-20 ATS at home against a team from the Eastern Time Zone at night.

It doesn’t stop there, however. This could be a very bad spot for the Colts, as road favorites off of an upset home win against the Seahawks before a huge game against the Broncos in Indianapolis next week. Not only is Denver probably the best team in the NFL, but it’ll be Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. They could easily be caught looking forward to that against the Chargers here. The Chargers, meanwhile, go to Jacksonville next week, when they will be road favorites. Last week, they lost as road favorites in Oakland, so they’ll be completely focused for a superior opponent here.

Since 1989, teams are 20-36 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional home dogs are 71-38 ATS before being divisional road favorites. There are not many situations where a team is home dog in between being road favorites, when their opponent is road favorites in between being home dogs, at least not enough to make any sort of point off of. However, I think we can safely say it benefits the Chargers. I really like their chances to pull the upset at home, as they did against Dallas and almost did against Houston.

San Diego Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (-4)

Record: 2-3

Philip Rivers threw 3 interceptions against the Raiders in a loss, but it was inevitable that he’d starting throwing interceptions at a higher rate, after throwing just 2 in his first 4 games. However, he’s still been very impressive, completing 73.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, as the offense moves the chains on a very impressive 81% of opportunities. He’s doing that without much of a supporting cast. However, the defense is pathetic, allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities. They were even worse against the Raiders with Dwight Freeney now out for the season. They made Terrelle Pryor look like John Elway.

Week 5 Studs

WR Vincent Brown

RT DJ Fluker

Week 5 Duds

LE Kendall Reyes

DT Cam Thomas

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)

When I did my top-200 players back in August, the Chargers were the only team in the NFL that only had 1 player on the list (safety Eric Weddle). Even the Jaguars (Eugene Monroe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts) and the Raiders (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) had more than one. They didn’t have a single player on the offensive side of the ball. The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing.

Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him.

The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. The Raiders get Terrelle Pryor back this week from injury. He certainly has flaws, but he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of taking advantage of a poor defense. He’s already one of the Raiders’ top-5 players and he’ll be a significant upgrade over Matt Flynn, who didn’t even look like he belonged in the league last week, leading the Raiders’ offense to one scoring drive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL all game.

For that reason, the Raiders certainly have a chance to cover, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t very good either. I could see the Chargers throwing up 30+ in this game and forcing the Raiders’ out of their offensive game plan, forcing Pryor to become a passer more than a runner, and winning fairly convincingly. I could really go either way on this game and the fact that it got moved to 11:55 PM Eastern Time doesn’t make things easier. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: None

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