Chargers

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)

When I did my top-200 players back in August, the Chargers were the only team in the NFL that only had 1 player on the list (safety Eric Weddle). Even the Jaguars (Eugene Monroe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts) and the Raiders (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) had more than one. They didn’t have a single player on the offensive side of the ball. The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing.

Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him.

The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. The Raiders get Terrelle Pryor back this week from injury. He certainly has flaws, but he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of taking advantage of a poor defense. He’s already one of the Raiders’ top-5 players and he’ll be a significant upgrade over Matt Flynn, who didn’t even look like he belonged in the league last week, leading the Raiders’ offense to one scoring drive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL all game.

For that reason, the Raiders certainly have a chance to cover, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t very good either. I could see the Chargers throwing up 30+ in this game and forcing the Raiders’ out of their offensive game plan, forcing Pryor to become a passer more than a runner, and winning fairly convincingly. I could really go either way on this game and the fact that it got moved to 11:55 PM Eastern Time doesn’t make things easier. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+7)

Record: 2-2

The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing. Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him (they didn’t have a single offensive player on my top-200 players list in August). The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. Still, they are no pushover because of their ability to put points on the board and sustain drives.

Week 4 Studs

QB Philip Rivers

RB Ryan Mathews

LG Johnnie Troutman

RT DJ Fluker

C Nick Hardwick

Week 4 Duds

MLB Donald Butler

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Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

One of the things that’s important to do when picking games is to take into account the schedule dynamic. Football is a physically and mentally demanding sport and teams are not at 100% in terms of their concentration and level of play in every game. This is a big part of the reason why upsets happen. It’s very important to try to figure out when this is a factor. I definitely think it is this week.

The Chargers are home underdogs here before they go to Oakland next week, where they will be road favorites. The Chargers will be 100% focused here for a superior opponent with no distraction on schedule. The Cowboys, well, that might not be the case for them. They are road favorites before they will be home dogs next week in Denver. They already have more wins than the rest of the division combined and a huge benchmark home game against the Broncos next week. It’s reasonable to believe that they might not care so much about a game in San Diego, a sub .500 non-divisional opponent.

The trends basically back this up. Non-divisional home dogs are 37-11 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, teams are 20-35 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. This is certainly a bigger game for the Chargers and I think that will show on the field. They’ve been competitive in all 3 of their games and could easily win here back at home.

San Diego Chargers 27 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (-2)

Philip Rivers is enjoying a resurgent season this year, completing 70.0% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception. This is despite the fact that he doesn’t really have a lot to work with in terms of receivers, offensive linemen, and running backs. The impact of Mike McCoy can’t be overstated. However, their defense has been even worse than their offense has been good. They have allowed 71 first downs and forced a league worst 9 punts. That’s what keeps this down here.

Week 3 Studs

RB Danny Woodhead

TE Antonio Gates

MLB Andrew Gachkar

Week 3 Duds

ROLB Dwight Freeney

MLB David Harris

LG Chad Rinehart

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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

These two teams have had eerily similar starts to their season. Both have almost beaten the Texans in what was seen as a “surprise,” even though the Texans haven’t really been that good since the middle of last season. Both also pulled upset wins in Pennsylvania against a team that might not have been as good as we thought they were at the time. Still, both of these teams have exceeded expectations thus far this season.

They also rank 18th and 20th (Tennessee and San Diego respectively) in terms of how frequently they convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, as opposed to how frequently they allow their opponents to do so. The Titans are doing it with defense, allowing opponents to convert 68.4% of their first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, while the Chargers are doing it with offense, converting 82.5% of first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs. At the same time, the Titans’ offense has been miserable, while the Chargers’ defense can’t stop anyone.

The question here is which of these teams, if any, is for real, at least in terms of being a pseudo-playoff contender in the weaker AFC. I think we’ll have a better idea of that after the game, but that doesn’t do us any good before the game. However, I feel that the Titans are for real, while the Chargers aren’t. For one, I think the Titans are more overall talented. They had 7 of my pre-season top-200 players, while the Chargers had just 1, including none on offense. The reason they’re moving the ball so well is because Philip Rivers seems to be having a resurgence and that could continue, but his offensive supporting cast is really not that good, so I don’t expect the Chargers to continue to be this efficient offensively.

The Titans’ defense, meanwhile, could continue to do this. They were dead last in points per game allowed last season, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with essentially the same personnel. They were one of the wild cards of this season for me for that reason and it’s very possible they are playing much closer to how they played in 2011 defensively than 2012. If that continues, they will continue to be a tough team to beat, even if Jake Locker continues throwing his name into the group of 2011 1st round quarterback busts with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

For that reason, I think the Titans win here and cover a 3 point spread at home (which traditionally means two teams are even). However, I’m not that confident because the Titans are in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you. They should still be the right side though.

Tennessee Titans 20 San Diego Chargers 15

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 28

The Chargers could easily be 2-0 right now, but they could also easily be 0-2 after playing field goal games in each of their first two games. Their offense seems rejuvenated under new Head Coach Mike McCoy, converting 82.5% of 1st and 10s for another 1st down, but their defense is allowing more than that, allowing 85.7% of 1st and 10s for another 1st down. The Chargers won’t win a lot of games, but they’ve shown they aren’t an easy win for playoff caliber teams either.

Week 2 Studs

QB Philip Rivers

WR Malcom Floyd

RT DJ Fluker

Week 2 Duds

RE Corey Liuget

MLB Donald Butler

CB Shareece Wright

FS Eric Weddle

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San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Eagles, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Chip Kelly’s offense looked very good in its first real test against Washington, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’ll need to see it against a better defense. Washington might have the worst secondary in the NFL. I believe the offensive line can’t continue its dominance as long as it’s healthy and that both LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson can continue to be serious weapons in Chip Kelly’s offense, but I need to see Vick make harder difficulty throws. He was throwing to open guys all night. ProFootballFocus agrees, actually grading him below average as a passer for his game. I also have a lot of concerns about this defense and their ability to stop guys even when they can’t force turnovers. It’s a good start, but it’s important to not get ahead of ourselves.

I don’t know if the Chargers are a good defense, but they’re better on that side of the ball than Washington. More importantly, they have a week of tape and a week to prepare so they won’t be caught off guard as much as the Redskins were. It’s unclear how much that will help though, especially with this game being at 1 PM ET, so I don’t really want to bet against the Eagles, but I can’t pick them here. I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a touchdown or more. They could also be caught looking forward to their game against Andy Reid and the Chiefs next Thursday, just 4 days after this one. Favorites are just 5-13 ATS the week before a Thursday Night game since the start of last season.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 San Diego Chargers 23

Pick against spread: San Diego +7

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

I had the Chargers playing the overrated Texans close, as the Texans were playing in a very late game for them (from Central time) and they were missing both Antonio Smith and Ed Reed, so I’m not surprised by the final score. However, the Chargers have to be kicking themselves for letting a win slip away like that in a season where wins will still be hard to come by. After blowing a 24-0 halftime lead against the Broncos last year, blowing a 28-7 lead against the Texans has to be bringing back Vietnam flashbacks for this team. And this time around, they can’t blame Norv Turner. I don’t buy the notion that quarterbacks suddenly become worse just by the quarter changing to the 4th, but Philip Rivers’ 12 touchdown to 16 interception ratio in the 4th quarter since 2011 is concerning.

Week 1 Studs

ROLB Dwight Freeney

LOLB Jarret Johnson

FS Eric Weddle

Week 1 Duds

RT DJ Fluker

RG Jeromey Clary

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Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

This is the annual week 1 absurdly late game. In order to kick off the football season, ESPN crams two NFL games into Monday Night Football Week 1. The second game usually starts after 10 PM ET and features West Coast teams, which, recently, has meant East Coasters have to watch crappy teams play football until well past Midnight. Last year’s San Diego/Oakland game was one of the worst games of the season, a game in which the Raiders botched 3 separate long snaps. The year before featured a riveting Kyle Orton/Jason Campbell battle.

This year, the Chargers are featured again, but they will be facing a Texan team that comes from 2 time zones over. That matters to this analysis. The Chargers will be playing this game from 7:15 until after 10 their time, but it’ll run until past Midnight on the internal clocks of the Texans. They could have lower energy than normal late in this game for that reason and that puts them at a disadvantage.

The Texans are an overrated team, as well. The Chargers aren’t good, but, considering the circumstances, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored by more than a field goal here on the road. They were much worse last season than their 12-4 record would suggest. They had a less than stellar scoring differential, going +85 on the season, including +9 in their final 11 games, +2 if you include the playoffs. Overall, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, despite a weak schedule. They ranked 11th in the NFL in DVOA, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily). They also were very reliant on winning the turnover battle, with a +12 turnover margin, with 29 takeaways and 17 turnovers.

That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). The Texans were actually just +2 in interceptions, but were +10 in fumbles, thanks to a fluky 64.1% fumble recovery rate. It’s not hard to see how the Texans’ turnover margin will even out in 2013. If it weren’t for this unsustainable turnover margin, the Texans would have been even worse in 2012.

Of course, they were off to a great start last year, before Brian Cushing got hurt. Without him, they ranked 18th in opponents’ scoring and 13th in opponents’ yardage, after starting the season as the top yardage and scoring defense in the NFL. They were 5-0 with him, including a win in Denver. The year before they were also a “what could have been team.”

They won 10 games in 2011 despite having their starting quarterback and top receiver only play together in 4 games. Before Matt Schaub went down with injury and missed the final 6 games of the season, the Texans were 7-3, scoring 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6, which would have been 5th and 3rd respectively over the course of the season. Those numbers translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.2 wins, which would have been second in the league that season. And all of that was despite Andre Johnson playing in just 4 of those 10 games, and Arian Foster missing 3 of those games.

Even after Schaub got hurt, they finished 10-6, going 3-3 without him and a 4th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis, winning a playoff game. I could say that the Texans will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season now that Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing are all healthy at the same time (it’s happened just 6 times in the last 2 seasons, all wins), but the NFL is messy. Nothing will ever be a perfect world. I’ve given up projecting them as that top, top level team. They’ll never be completely healthy and it’s not like they’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, ranking 8th in adjusted games lost in 2012 and 11th in 2011.

They just don’t seem to be able to take hits and keep on going and it’s very possible they’re just an above average team which flashes elite ability in the perfect scenario. This game isn’t a perfect scenario either as Antonio Smith, a talented starting defensive end, is out for this game with suspension. Furthermore, Brian Cushing might not be quite his usual self to start the season. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Chargers, I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Houston Texans 17 San Diego Chargers 16

Pick against spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

QB Phillip Rivers (San Diego)

8/6/13: Rivers has to get a stock down with Alexander going down for the season. His receiving corps sucks even more now.

Philip Rivers has seen his production drop off severely over the past 3 seasons. In 2010, he completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 101.8, on a team that ranked 2nd in the NFL, scoring 27.6 points per game. In 2011, he completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, an 88.7 QB rating, on a team that ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.

In 2012, he completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on a team that ranked 20th in the NFL, scoring 21.9 points per game. He also fumbled 13 times. It’s really tough to tell how much of that can be attributed to his own decline as he ages (he’s going into his age 32 season) and how much can be attributed to the lack of talent around him, but for fantasy purposes, it won’t matter. He will continue to be a mere QB2. He’s unlikely to match the 26 touchdowns he threw for last season because it’s unlikely the Chargers will score just 4 times on the ground again.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (212 pts standard, 256 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Ryan Matthews (San Diego)

Mathews looked on his way to a big time breakout year in 2012, with backup Mike Tolbert no longer stealing carries from him and coming off a season 2011 season in which he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 222 carries, with 50 catches for 455 yards, and 6 total touchdowns. However, injuries reared their head, as they always have for him, limiting him to just 184 carries, 3.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown and 2 broken clavicles.

He’s missed 10 games in his first 3 years in the league, never playing more than 14 games, and his injury problems date back to his collegiate days. The new regime does not seem nearly as bullish on his upside as the old one and he figures to work in a running back committee with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead. He may be better, more efficient, and less likely to get hurt being used in this fashion, but it’s starting to look like he’ll never be the lead back and LaDainian Tomlinson replacement they were expecting.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 290 receiving yards (149 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

Danny Woodhead is the closest thing they’ve had to Darren Sproles since he left, but he’s had just 250 carries in the last 3 seasons and, at 5-8 190, isn’t capable of carrying much of a load. His biggest impact will come in the passing game. He’s worth a late round pick in PPR leagues.

Projection: 90 carries for 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 50 catches for 400 receiving yards (99 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

With Danario Alexander done for the year and Malcom Floyd dealing with an injury, Vincent Brown becomes the #1 receiver. Brown missed all of last season with a broken ankle and he had trouble with hamstring problems earlier in Training Camp, but he flashed as a 3rd round rookie in 2011 and now is going into his 3rd year in the league, which tends to be a breakout year for young receivers. He caught 19 passes for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 targets and 226 routes run in 2011. He could post good numbers simply as a volume receiver.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (118 pts standard, 174 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/6/13: Gates gets a minor stock up with Alexander going down, but like Floyd I still don’t expect much.

Antonio Gates looks like he’s in the beginning of the end of his career. Despite plenty of opportunity, Gates managed just 49 catches for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite actually playing in 15 games for the first time since 2009. He has a history of injury problems, missing 10 games in the last 3 seasons and being limited in countless others and, going into his age 33 season, it looks like it’s all caught up with him. He’s unlikely to improve much upon those numbers. His biggest impact will be around the goal line, as he’s still managed 24 touchdowns over 38 games over the last 3 seasons. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2003.

Projection: 54 catches for 610 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 157 pts PPR)

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