Chiefs

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)

One of these teams has 11 more offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents and the other one has 3 fewer offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents. By looking at their records, you’d think 10-win Kansas City had the +11 margin, but it’s actually Tennessee, who is just 7-6. How are the Titans 3 wins worse than the Chiefs if they have such an advantage in offensive touchdowns? Well, the Chiefs have a +7 differential in return touchdowns, while the Titans are -7 in that measure. The Chiefs also have a 6-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, while the Titans are just 4-3 in those types of games.

The Chiefs can’t just rely on return touchdowns winning them close games all year though. At some point, they’ll need to consistently move the ball better than their opponents and they rank just 27th in first down rate differential, while the Titans rank 7th. Aside from the 14 plays that make the difference in these teams’ return touchdown margins, the Titans have outplayed the Chiefs by a wide margin this season. Despite that, the Chiefs are 6 point home favorites this week. The Chiefs have just 4 wins by more than 6 points this season, so this should be a close game, but Tennessee has a good shot to win straight up as well because they have quietly been one of the better teams in the league this season. This is my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +200

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (10-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)

Back in week 6, the Chiefs clobbered the Raiders in Oakland, 26-10, easily the Chiefs’ most impressive game of the season. The Chiefs won the first down battle 22 to 16 and won the first down rate battle by a margin of +5.80%. That was easily the best game the Chiefs have played this season though and there’s no guarantee they can play that well again. Despite a 9-3 record, the Chiefs enter this game 27th in first down rate differential and have allowed 34 more first downs than they’ve gained and 4 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve scored.

They’ve won 9 games because of five wins by a touchdown or less (including 2 in overtime), a +6 margin in return touchdowns, and a + 14 turnover margin. Unfortunately for them, there’s zero week-to-week consistency or correlation in turnover margins (and, as a result, in return touchdown margins). For this reason, I love betting against teams that have strong turnover margins, as they tend to be overrated by traditional metrics. In the past two weeks alone, the Chiefs have scored 25 points on a special teams safety, a safety return touchdown, a pick six, a pick two, and a fake punt touchdown in two games they won by a combined 4 points. A win is a win, but at some point, they’re going to have to start consistently moving the ball better than their opponents to win games.

Fortunately for them, they’re as healthy right now as they’ve been in a while. They’ve gotten their top pass rusher Justin Houston back from off-season surgery and this week will get their top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin back from a 4-game absence with a groin injury. Aside from starting defensive end Jaye Howard, they aren’t missing any key players right now, so they’re healthier than most teams in the league right now. Also fortunately for them, the Raiders are also not as good as their record, as just 3 of their 10 wins have come by more than a touchdown and their turnover margin is +12, 3rd best in the NFL. Despite a 10-2 record, they have just 8 more first downs and 3 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents and rank 17th in first down rate differential. I have them ranked slightly higher than the Chiefs and I’m taking them for a low confidence pick as 3 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough for me to put money on them because both teams enter this game overrated.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

For weeks, the Chiefs have been at the top of my overrated teams list. They’re still on the list, as they are overly reliant on winning close games (5 wins by a touchdown or fewer), winning the turnover margin (+14 on the season), and getting return touchdowns (+5 on the season), but they’re a lot healthier now than they were a couple weeks ago. Top pass rusher Justin Houston showed his All-Pro form last week in his first real game back from off-season knee surgery. Top cornerback Marcus Peters also returned from a 1-game absence last week. This week, the Chiefs get Dee Ford, their top pass rusher in Houston’s absence, back from a 1-game absence.

With Houston and Ford healthy, the Chiefs already strong defense gets even better. They rank 10th in first down rate allowed, but I think you could argue they’re on the cusp of being a top-5 defense with everyone healthy. The problem is their offense, especially with Jeremy Maclin set to miss his 4th straight game with injury. They rank 25th in first down rate and have just 20 offensive touchdowns on the year, including just 6 in the past 4 games, even with one of those games going to overtime. Despite a 8-3 record, they’ve allowed 4 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve allowed. That’s been masked by their turnover margin, return touchdown margin, and record in close games, but those types of things tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, the Chiefs rank 22nd in first down rate differential.

They’re better than that suggests because of their improving injury situation, but they face a tough opponent on the road this week in a tough spot. The Falcons rank 5th in first down rate differential and are still a solid team at worst even with cornerback Desmond Trufant and defensive end Adrian Clayborn hurt. They have major issues on defense, especially without those two, but they have one of the best offenses in the league. They also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Los Angeles to face the Rams next week, a game in which they figure to be big road favorites. Teams are 86-63 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4 or more, as teams tend to take care of business with no upcoming distractions on the horizon.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have to play a big divisional game against the Raiders in Thursday Night Football a few days after this one and are coming off of basically a 5 quarter game, winning in the final seconds of overtime on a field goal. The game didn’t end in a tie but it took the whole overtime period, meaning they played about as much football as they would have in a tie. Unsurprisingly, teams are 5-13 ATS off of a tie since 1989. This line is too high at 5.5 for me to be at all confident in the Falcons, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -5.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

The Chiefs are 7-3, but they’ve been overly reliant on close wins (4 of 7 wins by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover margin (+13 on the season, best in the NFL), and return touchdowns (+4 return touchdown margin). Those things tend to be very inconsistent from week-to-week, so they’re very tough to rely on long-term. In terms of first down rate differential, they enter this game 25th, suggesting that if we assume turnover neutral football for them going forward, they’re going to have far less success in the win/loss column. We already saw this in their home loss to Tampa Bay last week, as they lost the turnover margin by 1 and subsequently lost the game to an inferior team against whom they were favored by 7.5.

They’ve been worse in recent weeks, scoring just 3 offensive touchdowns in their last 3 games and losing at home to the Buccaneers last week. That’s no surprise, considering all of the injuries they have right now. They’re expected to get cornerback Marcus Peters back from a 1-game absence and Justin Houston should see more snaps after making it through his season debut setback free last week, but top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin remains out, as does starting defensive lineman Jaye Howard. Joining them on the sidelines this week is Dee Ford, their sack leader this season in the absence of Houston.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are as healthy as any team in the league right now coming out of their bye week, as key defenders Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib return from injury. They’ve also been significantly better than the Chiefs this season, entering this game 11th in first down rate differential. Despite a mere +5 turnover margin, the Broncos have a +50 point differential on the season, as opposed to +35 for the Chiefs. On top of that, Denver is in a better spot, as they head to Jacksonville next, while Kansas City has to turn around and go to Atlanta, a much tougher opponent than Jacksonville. There’s not enough for me to put money on the Broncos as 3.5 point home favorites, but I’m holding out hope this line falls to 3 before gametime. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so it’s a very important half point.

Denver Broncos 19 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Much is being made of the fact that the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games, winning their final 10 regular season games in 2015 and starting this season 7-2. That’s impressive, but the Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite just scoring one offensive touchdown. That’s also impressive, but it’s very unsustainable. They’ve managed just 28 first downs over those 2 games, but have won both games (by just 5 and 3 points respectively) largely as a result of a +5 turnover margin and a +1 return touchdown margin.

That’s largely been the case all season, as they’ve had the best turnover margin in the league (+14) and have also have a +4 return touchdown margin. Unfortunately for them, turnovers tend to be very inconsistent week-to-week and very tough for a team to rely on. Despite their great turnover margin and the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, just 3 of their 7 wins have come by more than a touchdown. On the season, they rank just 25th in first down rate differential, suggesting that if we assume turnover neutral football for them going forward, they’re going to have far less success in the win/loss column.

The Chiefs also enter this game missing significant players on both sides of the ball. While top pass rusher Justin Houston will make his debut this week after off-season knee surgery, he’s not expected to play anywhere near a full set of snaps. The Chiefs are also still missing defensive end Jaye Howard, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and will likely be without top cornerback Marcus Peters this week. Given all of their injuries, how close many of their wins have been, and the fact that they’ve scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 weeks, they have no business laying 7 points here at home against the Buccaneers.

The only reason I can’t be confident in Tampa Bay is because they’re in a very tough spot here. They’re coming off of a home upset victory over the Bears and then have to turn around and face the Seahawks next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 38-90 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as huge upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction for a team. Furthermore, underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, teams are 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. Sandwiched in between a huge home win and a very tough home game, the Buccaneers might not be fully focused for a non-conference opponent this week. That being said, the Chiefs’ offense has struggled so much this season that the Buccaneers could still cover the 7 even if they don’t play their best game. This isn’t a money play, but that could change if the line moves to 7.5 by the morning.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line has moved from 2.5 in favor of the Panthers on the early line last week to 3 this week, which doesn’t seem like a huge line movement, but it is when you consider that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. This time though, the line movement is legitimate, as the Chiefs will be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin and starting defensive end Jaye Howard with injury.

In fact, I think we’re still getting good line value with the Panthers, who are the better of these two teams, despite their records. This line suggests these two teams are even, but the Panthers rank 14th in first down rate differential, while the Chiefs rank 24th. Three of the Panthers five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are legitimately a few plays away from being 5-3 or even 6-2 like the Chiefs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 6-2 with the help of a 3-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league leading +12 turnover margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable long-term. There’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers at 3, especially since the Panthers are hosting the Saints in 4 days on Thursday Night Football (favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but I would consider it if this line dropped to 2.5.

Carolina Panthers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

The Jaguars have had a disappointing 2016 season. A perennial cellar dweller in recent years, the Jaguars entered the off-season with a lot of young talent and cap space to spend to add to their young talent, which they did with free agent additions like Malik Jackson, Chris Ivory, Kelvin Beachum, Prince Amukamara, and Tashaun Gipson. After a strong draft, many had them as a sleeper playoff team, but they’ve started the season 2-5 and look well on their way to another lost season in their 4th season under head coach Gus Bradley. Their offense has definitely been their most disappointing unit, as they’ve failed to move the ball outside of garbage time for most of the season, but this line is 7.5 so the Jaguars’ garbage time “prowess” could really help here. If the Jaguars are down by two scores late, I still like my chances of getting a cover with a late backdoor Jacksonville touchdown.

I don’t think it’ll even get to that point though. I’m not convinced the Jaguars are completely done; they’re not one of the worst rosters in the league and they’re relatively healthy right now compared to the rest of the league. They’ve had a long week off after Thursday Night Football and are installing a new offensive coordinator following the dismissal of Greg Olson, which could provide a spark for an offense that has underperformed it’s talent in competitive game situations this season.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are without starting quarterback Alex Smith and their top two running backs Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles, leaving them with a backfield of Nick Foles and Charcandrick West. Both of those players have some starting experience, but this isn’t a great offense to begin with so it’s tough to ask them to cover a 7.5 point line, especially considering 51.3% of games have been decided by a touchdown or less this season (compared to 45.8% from 2006-2015). That’s because the NFL is a lot of teams that aren’t far from average this season. This line is way too high.

The Jaguars are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. I like Jacksonville a lot at 7.5 or higher.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7.5

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)

The Colts get wide receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett back from injury this week, but are still pretty banged up, missing starting defensive ends Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, and top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort. Despite that, I think we’re getting pretty good value with them as field goal home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided a field goal or fewer and the Chiefs are only 14th in first down percentage differential, so this line is a little bit high, especially since the Colts are 24-12 ATS at home in the Andrew Luck era/Chuck Pagano era (since 2012), including 8-0 ATS as home underdogs. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Colts, but they’re the pick here.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)

The Saints pulled off a big upset win over the Panthers last week, winning 41-38 in a crazy shootout. That’s obviously a huge win, even if the Panthers aren’t what they were last year, but teams tend not to cover off of a big home upset victory, as teams are 53-76 ATS following a home upset victory since 2012. It makes sense that teams would be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a home upset victory. On top of that, the Saints have to turn around and hose the Seahawks next week, another huge home game. The early line has them as 5.5 point home underdogs and teams are just 37-85 ATS since 2012 before a home game in which they’ll be underdogs of at least 4.5 points, which also makes sense. Huge upcoming home games can be a distraction for teams.

The Chiefs are at least a solid opponent as well, ranking 12th in first down percentage differential, but it’s very possible the Saints won’t be focused this week or at least won’t be focused enough to keep it close here against a superior Chiefs team. We’re not really getting much line value with the Chiefs as 6 point favorites and there’s not quite enough for me to put money on this (though that might change if it drops to 5.5), but Kansas City should be the right side here.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)

This is easily the most confusing line of the week. I’ve had the Raiders on my underrated list since the start of the season and I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL, even if they haven’t had a convincing victory over anyone through 5 weeks. The Raiders have started 4-1 though, so I figured they’d still be at least field goal favorites here at home against a Chiefs team that’s average at best without top pass rusher Justin Houston, who remains out with a knee injury. Instead, the Raiders are inexplicably 2 point home underdogs. There’s a significant talent gap between these two teams and I would have had the line at least 4 in favor of the Raiders, so we’re getting a great value with the Raiders here for some reason.

The Raiders don’t even have a tough upcoming game that could be a distraction. Next week, they travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that’s currently 1-3. In fact, the Raiders are expected to be road favorites in Jacksonville next week, even as much as the oddsmakers seem to underestimate them. Home underdogs are 77-45 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The early line only has the Raiders as 2.5 point road favorites next week, but that could easily jump to 4 if the Raiders have a strong showing here, which I expect them to do. This is my Pick of the Week. The money line is also a great value at +115.

Oakland Raiders 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Oakland +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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