Chiefs

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were 23rd in the NFL in points per drive. They proved that they weren’t as good as their record by failing to cover an 8 point spread in Denver last week in a 27-17 loss.

They have an elite defense for sure, but their offense might actually be one of the worst in the NFL. They’re way too reliant on winning the turnover battle (+15), return touchdowns (+7), and recovering fumbles (66.7%), three things that are tough to rely on consistently. They aren’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re not as good as their record. Football Outsiders has them 9th in DVOA, which I think is very reasonable.

The public still seems to be overrating them as they are all over them as 5.5 point favorites here. I think this might actually be a little high. The Chargers are better than their record. They are 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They move the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which ranks 12th. In terms of DVOA, they are 16th. With the Chiefs moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 66% for their opponents, I have this line calculated at about 5 and even that might be too high.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. This is a sandwich game for them in between both Denver games. Teams are 74-96 ATS as favorites after a loss as underdogs before being underdogs once again since 2008. Meanwhile, since 1989, teams are 13-29 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional home dogs. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. They lost in Miami in this same sandwich game spot last week, which is probably part of why they are being undervalued. Finally, favorites are 28-42 ATS as favorites off of their first loss week 6 or later since 1989. It’s a strong play on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +190

Pick Against Spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)

The Chiefs are 9-0 and 8 point underdogs. How rare is that? Well, since 1989, no 9-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. The Chiefs are 8 point underdogs. No 8-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. If you want to find an undefeated team that has been underdogs of this amount, you’d have to go back to 1997, when the 5-0 Buccaneers were 8 point underdogs in Green Bay (for the record, they covered, but did not win).

Some people might look at that and think “how can the Chiefs not cover?” and apparently that’s what people are doing as the majority of the money is on the underdog here. I think the opposite. The odds makers must have a good reason for making them underdogs of this amount. It’s not like undefeated dogs are an automatic cover. 5-0 or better teams are 7-6 ATS since 1989 and 4-0 or better teams are 14-14 ATS and the fact that the public is on Kansas City makes me think this is a trap line. There’s a reason the odds makers always win in the long run.

So why do the Chiefs deserve to be 8 point underdogs? For one thing, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, according to DVOA and that doesn’t even take into account they’ve faced 3rd string quarterbacks in their last 3 games and backup quarterbacks in 4 of their last 5 games. The last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Jeff Tuel. Peyton Manning represents an obvious contrast from those 5.

The Broncos have had an easily schedule as well, 31st in terms of DVOA, but there are a couple of differences. For one thing, the Broncos have faced just one backup quarterback (Chad Henne and the Jaguars). The Broncos have also been more impressive in their victories, with a +133 point differential, as opposed to +104 for Kansas City. That also takes into account that the Chiefs have 7 return touchdowns, which have accounted for 49 of those points. As a result, the Chiefs rank just 23rd in points per drive, despite the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Return touchdowns are very tough to rely on, especially against the Broncos. The Chiefs have also been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin (+15) and an unsustainable rate of recovering fumbles (66.7%), which is a large part of the reason why the Chiefs are +7 in return touchdowns. The Broncos, meanwhile, are just +2 in turnovers, despite having Peyton Manning under center, largely as a result of a 36.7% fumble recovery rate. The Chiefs may rank 1st in points per drive allowed, but they rank just 6th in net points per drive, while the Broncos rank 1st. In terms of DVOA, the Broncos rank 1st, while the Chiefs rank 8th. That’s why this line makes sense.

As I said, I automatically lean towards the Broncos because I think this is a trap line. However, there are reasons why I’m not confident in the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s high ankle sprain and the uncertainty that comes with it is one reason. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. The Chiefs host the Chargers next week, which mean they won’t have any distractions to worry about.

Also, Andy Reid’s extraordinary record off of a bye has to be taken into account. As a Head Coach with the Eagles, Andy Reid was 14-1 off of a regular season bye, with that one loss coming in last year’s train wreck of a season. Of course, he’s only once been underdogs over more than 3 off of a regular season bye so his teams have never been as challenged as the Chiefs will be against the Broncos this week. However, against the spread, he is 11-4 ATS off of a bye and even if the Chiefs don’t win, there’s a lot of room to cover anyway. At the end of the day, I’m fading the trap line, but I’m not confident at all.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Denver -8

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+1)

Record: 9-0

It’s worth noting that the Bills’ offense led by Jeff Tuel outscored the Chiefs’ offense led by Alex Smith. The Bills won by 10 because of two return touchdowns, but that’s not a sustainable method of offense. Their schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. Their first 9 opponents were a combined 27-49 and they’ve faced 3 straight 3rd string quarterbacks, but their next 7 opponents are a combined 34-23, including Denver twice, San Diego twice, and Indianapolis. Fortunately, they get Denver after a bye and Andy Reid is 14-1 off of a regular season bye, only losing last season on a Philadelphia team that eventually finished 4-12. However, I don’t think Reid has ever had a test as hard as on the road against this caliber of opponent. The early line has Denver favored by 7.5 as the odds makers know the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Reid was only an underdog by more than 3 off of a bye once in Philadelphia.

Week 9 Studs

MLB Derrick Johnson

Week 9 Duds

LG Jeff Allen

CB Brandon Flowers

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5)

Damnit. I was so ready to pick an upset here for Buffalo. Buffalo is better than their record, especially at home. In 4 home games, they’ve beaten a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings (Carolina, Baltimore) and almost beat another pair of top-10 teams (New England, Cincinnati). I don’t think the Chiefs are significantly better than the teams the Bills have played close and beaten here in Buffalo.

The Chiefs are 8-0, but they aren’t nearly as good as their record. They are overly reliant on winning the turnover battle (+12), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and winning close games (3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less), in addition to their cupcake schedule (5 of their opponents are in the bottom-10 of my Power Rankings). In the past 2 weeks, they won at home by a combined 7 points over two 3rd string quarterbacks (Jason Campbell, Case Keenum). They are just 10th in DVOA, as opposed to 17th for Buffalo.

There’s a reason this line is only 4. It’s clearly a trap line and the public is all over it, with a huge amount of the action on the Chiefs. It makes sense. The general public looks at this and is like “the Chiefs are 8-0 and the Bills are 3-5, how can they not win by more than 4? FREE MONEY!!!” That’s how not it works. If it was, everyone would be rich and the odds makers would be out of business, instead of building giant casinos in the desert. The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. Road favorites are 24-41 ATS since 1989 off of 3 straight home games. They won’t be used to a hostile environment after nearly a month at home.

However, Thaddeus Lewis is not expected to play in this one with injury and illness, meaning undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel will get the start. He was understandably awful in Cleveland in the only action of his career, going 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six. You couldn’t pay me to bet anything on him (that’s not true, I’d bet the amount of money you paid me to bet on them), especially since the line hasn’t really moved. I’d still take the Bills out of principle if I had to because I still believe it’s a trap line, but Jeff Tuel sucks.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Buffalo +4

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (-2)

Record: 8-0

The Chiefs are 8-0, but they haven’t beaten a team ranked higher than 12th on this list and 5 of their 8 wins have come against bottom-10 teams. On top of that, 5 of their wins have come by 10 points or less. They are overrated and could easily lose this week in Buffalo, where two other top-15 teams (Baltimore, Carolina) have lost and two other top-10 teams (Cincinnati, New England) almost lost. Also overrated is Alex Smith, who is 27-5 over the past 3 seasons and apparently gets all the credit for that, even though his defenses have allowed 13.4 points per game in those 32 games. The Chiefs have a great defense and a strong running game, but they won’t be able to get deep into the playoffs.

Week 8 Studs

LOLB Justin Houston

DT Dontari Poe

MLB Derrick Johnson

Week 8 Duds

RT Eric Fisher

C Rodney Hudson

MLB Akeem Jordan

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 7-0

I am aware the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL who has not lost a game. If you want to see rankings were they are #1, go to espn.com/nfl/standings. I’m not interested in parroting back the standings. I’m trying to evaluate each team’s talent level and where they will end up at the end of the season. The Chiefs haven’t played anyone that good. The two toughest teams they’ve faced might be Dallas and Houston and they beat them by a point each in Kansas City. A few other top level teams haven’t played any either, but the Chiefs are not designed to beat top level teams. They are designed to win conservative games against average or worse opponents. Their turnover margin, the biggest reason why they are winning, will not continue to be this impressive against tougher opponents.

Week 7 Studs

RE Mike DeVito

Week 7 Duds

FB Anthony Sherman

RT Eric Fisher

TE Anthony Fasano

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Last week, I took a 3rd string quarterback in Kansas City as significant underdogs, even though I was scared, because they were in such a good spot. That worked out for me as Case Keenum led the Texans to a near win as the Chiefs won by a final score of just 17-16. This week, the Chiefs are once again facing a 3rd string quarterback at home and the Browns, like the Texans were last week, are in a good spot. I actually like the Browns even more than I did the Texans for two reasons.

The first reason is that this line is a point higher. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it is because 7 is a key number. Approximately 8% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown. The second reason is I trust Jason Campbell more than I did Case Keenum. Keenum was a complete unknown going into last week’s game. He couldn’t get himself drafted in 2012 and he hadn’t played an NFL snap in his career. That scared me. Campbell, however, is proven.

With the Raiders, he went 11-7 in 2010 and 2011 with a team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and has gone 10-22 in their next 26 games without him. He really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. He has 71 career starts so I’m not going to base my opinion on him off of 6 quarters last year. We know what he is. His career quarterback rating is 82.4 as he’s completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 76 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions.

He’s not great, but he’s alright and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. The Browns have a solid supporting cast. We saw Brian Hoyer win 3 games in 3 tries with the team earlier this season before tearing his ACL because he was able to get the ball to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron downfield and rely on a solid defense. Jason Campbell should be able to do his best Brian Hoyer impression.

It helps Campbell that the Browns are in a good spot this week, as I mentioned earlier. They are road dogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 95-55 ATS in since 2008 and a situation which historically covers at around a 65% rate, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. Meanwhile, while the Chiefs are 7-0 and have a top-5, arguably top-1 defense, they aren’t as good as their record. They don’t move the ball well offensively and they’ve faced a cupcake schedule and they’ve been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin of +11.

In 4 home games, they beaten the Texans and Cowboys by a point a piece and their games with the Giants and Raiders were within a touchdown going into the 4th quarter before a few fluky things busted things open. The Browns have a much better defense than those two teams so they should be able to keep it a close, low scoring game like the Texans and Cowboys did. Despite that, the public is still all over the undefeated Chiefs like they were last week. I expect a similar result and the odds makers to make money again.

The only concern here and the reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week is that Cleveland might lack enough focus to keep this close. They have a big divisional home game against the Ravens, while the Chiefs have no distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Non-divisional road dogs are 49-76 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs, while non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road favorites. However, since the Chiefs are 7-0, I think the Browns will be plenty focused. Home favorites who are 5-0 or better are 19-30 ATS since 2002. It’s a big play on the Browns.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)

If Matt Schaub were starting in this one, Houston would have been my Pick of the Week. Seriously. I think they’re significantly better than their record right now. They are just getting killed in turnovers and points off of turnovers, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis. Since 1989, 35 teams have lost despite winning the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. 2 of those teams are the 2013 Houston Texans and the Texans also did so a 3rd time against Tennessee. One of those times was last week against the Rams.

The Texans have turned the ball over 15 times this year. 6 of those were returned for touchdown, an absurd 40% rate that would not have continued going forward. Between those 6 returns and a punt return touchdown they allowed, they are -6 in return touchdowns, -42 in points off of returns. Even if they were to continue their AFC worst -12 turnover margin, an average of -2 per game, they would not continue to get killed by return as much.

However, it was unlikely they’d continue that turnover margin. If they were to continue an average of -2 per game, they’d finish the season at -32, which would be a modern day record. I don’t think this team is all-time bad in turnovers, especially a year after they were +12 in turnover margin. And that highlights another point: that turnover margin is very random and inconsistent on a year to year and week to week basis. On average, teams that have a -4 turnover margin in a given game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week and the same is true for teams that have a +4 turnover margin in a given game.

That turnover margin was largely the result of an unsustainably low rate of recovering fumbles and an uncharacteristically high interception rate by Matt Schaub. Thus far, the Texans are recovering just 30.8% of fumbles, which won’t continue. Matt Schaub, meanwhile, was throwing an interception on 3.9% of his attempts, as opposed to 2.6%, which is his career rate. When he is under center going forward, that probably won’t continue.

The Texans are actually moving the chains pretty well, a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That’s a differential that’s 9th best in the NFL, while Kansas City sits at 4th. However, Houston has faced a much tougher schedule than Kansas City thus far as all 6 of their opponents this season are currently .500 or better. Kansas City’s opponents, meanwhile, are 11-25 combined. Houston with Matt Schaub is arguably the 2nd best team they’ve faced thus far this season behind Dallas, who only lost by 1 in Kansas City.

The Texans are also in a good spot off of back-to-back losses by 21+ or more. Teams are 37-20 ATS in this spot since 2002. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. The Texans have yet to cover a spread thus far this season, but that’s because they’ve been overrated thus far. That’s obviously no longer the case. Everyone covers a spread eventually, at least 3 or 4 times per year, even really bad teams, which is not what I think Houston is.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been helped by an unsustainably high +12 turnover margin, largely as the result of a 64.7% fumble recovery rate. If Schaub were under center, I legitimately thought they had a good chance to pull the upset and, at the very least, cover. However, I don’t really feel like putting a ton of confidence in an undrafted rookie who has never attempted an NFL pass on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL, which is allowing a 62% rate of moving the chains, albeit against a weak schedule.

We could see the rest of the team, particularly their strong defense, step up and shut down a Kansas City offense that is moving the chains at a mere 69% rate, despite a weak schedule. That could definitely keep this came close and the fact that the line is so low makes me think that it’s a trap line, especially with the public all over Kansas City. If this line increases to a touchdown or more, I’ll increase this to medium confidence, but don’t put anything on this line yet. There’s a chance it increases in the wake of the Keenum announcement, but it’s been a few hours and nothing has really changed, so we’ll see.

Update: The line is still now at 7. I’m going to raise this to medium confidence.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Houston +7

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 6-0

The Chiefs are doing their best 2011 49ers impression, everything from the easy schedule and the unsustainable turnover margin to Alex Smith under center and a dominant stop unit (opponents are moving the chains against them at a 62% rate, which leads the NFL). Their schedule has obviously not been particularly tough to this point in this season, as their first 6 opponents have a combined 11-25 record. However, it doesn’t really get tougher going forward. Outside of two games with the Broncos, Indianapolis is the only other likely playoff team they play going forward. They could conceivably rip off 12 or 13 wins, but they are unlikely to win the division, which would prevent them from having a home playoff game. Between that and an easy schedule propping up their record, they are unlikely to make a deep playoff run with the physically limited Alex Smith under center (9 of 29 on throws 10+ yards downfield outside the hash marks). That’s why there are teams with losses ahead of them.

Week 6 Studs

FB Anthony Sherman

CB Marcus Cooper

Week 6 Duds

QB Alex Smith

WR Donnie Avery

LG Jeff Allen

RT Eric Fisher

TE Sean McGrath

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