Chiefs

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Before the season, the Raiders were expected to be an all-time bad team. That hasn’t happened, as they are 2-3 right now and credit Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen for building a passable team despite over 50 million in dead money on their cap. However, I think they’re a little overrated right now. They’re not a good football team. I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). The fact that they are 2-3 right now does not shock me. Terrelle Pryor has legitimately impressed me, but he gets his biggest defensive test of the season, by far, this week.

The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score 11.6 points per game this season and opponents are moving the chains at a 61% rate. For comparison, the Jaguars are averaging 10.2 points per game and moving the chains at a 59% rate. Basically, the Chiefs have made their average opponent look like the Jaguars offensively (and they embarrassed the Jaguars week 1, for what it’s worth). They haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both the Eagles and Cowboys are moving the chains at high rates this year and couldn’t do anything against the Chiefs. The Raiders aren’t exactly adding to their strength of schedule here and they have a very good chance to stifle them offensively.

That’s going to allow the Chiefs to execute their game plan offensively and they should have plenty of success avoiding turnovers and moving the chains against a Raiders defense that hasn’t been bad, but lacks much talent. I feel like this line is at least a couple points too low. It should be on the other side of 10, like it was before the Raiders’ “surprising” win over the Chargers. It’s not a big play, but the Chiefs should win this by multiple scores at home, on a day in which their fans will be attempting to bring Seattle’s crowd noise record. Kansas City is also my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Kansas City -8

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 5-0

The Titans were the best team the Chiefs had played thus far this season. Their first 4 opponents had a combined record of 4-16. However, they could have easily lost in Tennessee (without Jake Locker) if it weren’t for some fluky turnovers, including a blocked punt for touchdown and an interception off of a receiver’s hands. The yardage, first down, and punt totals were essentially even. The Chiefs will win a bunch of games, but I don’t see them making a ton of noise in the post-season.

Week 5 Studs

LE Allen Bailey

DT Dontari Poe

CB Brandon Flowers

SS Eric Berry

Week 5 Duds

RT Donald Stephenson

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Titans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Kansas City is 4-0 right now. However, their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They luck out here though. While Tennessee is 3-1, they are without quarterback Jake Locker for the foreseeable future with a hip injury. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. You can credit a tough defense for that.

However, Locker hasn’t thrown an interception in 111 attempts, a huge part of the reason why the Titans have yet to commit a turnover this season. He was probably not going to continue that if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but the drop off from Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown an interception on 3.6% of his career attempts, will be noticeable in this aspect. Between that and the fact that the Titans won’t recover every single one of their fumbles all season (3 of 3), they definitely won’t be able to count on winning the turnover battle every game going forward.

The Chiefs won’t be able to either. They are +9 in turnovers this season, but this type of thing is really inconsistent. The Chiefs and Giants came into last week’s game +9 and -9 in turnovers respectively and were even in turnovers in that gain. However, I think the Chiefs are more talented than the Titans in almost every aspect. It’ll be a tight game between two defensive lead teams, which is why I’m not confident in the Chiefs as favorites of a field goal on the road, but they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (+5)

Record: 4-0

The Chiefs aren’t in the top-4 with the other 4-0 teams because their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They won’t be able to rely on winning the turnover battle every game going forward and in the first game they didn’t win the turnover battle, they were stuck in a tough battle at home with the 0-4 Giants, before a punt return blew the game open. They’re a very solid football team, but all 6 teams ahead of them on this list are greater contenders for the Super Bowl.

Week 5 Studs

QB Alex Smith

LOLB Justin Houston

ROLB Tamba Hali

SS Eric Berry

Week 5 Duds

RT Donald Stephenson

LG Geoff Schwartz

C Rodney Hudson

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New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

The Giants are an NFL worst -9 in turnovers, while the Chiefs are an NFL best +9 in turnovers. Therefore, the Chiefs should dominate the turnover battle and win this game right? Well, that’s not necessarily true. Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week to week (and year to year) basis. For example, teams who win the turnover battle by 4 one week, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Teams who lose the turnover battle by 4 one week, same thing, an average of+0.0 the following week.

Alex Smith has yet to throw an interception on 105 attempts this year, but that’s not going to continue. He simply hasn’t really been tested and, as a result, hasn’t had to make a lot of high risk throws. He’s attempted just 18 of 105 passes more than 10 yards through the air and just 4 more than 20 yards through the air. He also hasn’t completed a single pass outside the hash marks longer than 10 yards downfield all season.

Eli Manning, meanwhile, has thrown an interception on 7.0% of his pass attempts, which also won’t continue. This is a guy who has thrown an interception on 3.3% of his 4571 career pass attempts. This stretch is just a fluke and a lot of the interceptions haven’t been his fault. The Giants are also unlikely to continue recovering just 22.2% of fumbles all season, while the Chiefs are also unlikely to recover just 85.7% of fumbles all season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Giants won the turnover battle in this one. As a result, I feel the Giants are undervalued, while the Chiefs are overvalued.

The Giants are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off of a road loss, a situation teams are 89-54 ATS in since 2008. Teams recover in this situation about 65% of the time historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. They’re also coming off of a blowout loss, losing 38-0 in Carolina last week. Teams are 43-22 ATS since 2002 off of a 35+ point loss. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. That’s very likely the case here. The Giants are 0-3 here and their season is pretty much over if they lose, while the Chiefs, who are 3-0, could overlook them.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-31 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-18 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-7 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004.

They’re generally a better team in the first half of the season anyway. Since 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-22 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Clearly that hasn’t been the case here so far this season, but I think it’s still worth noting. The Giants starting a season 0-4 would be pretty ridiculous considering their history. It’s not my primary reason for taking them here, but it works well with everything else I’ve mentioned.

We’re not getting a ton of line value here, with the Chiefs only as 4.5 point favorites, but I think the odds makers are keeping the line intentionally low as a kind of trap line, and the majority of the action is on the Chiefs. That just reinforces my belief that the Giants are the right side and fortunately this line has passed the critical numbers of 3 and 4. That’s important because 29% of NFL games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s a pretty good cushion with the Giants in case they can’t win. As long as this line is 4.5 points or higher, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (-1)

Any talk that Alex Smith is better than Colin Kaepernick is absurd. Alex Smith hasn’t completed a single pass outside the hash marks longer than 10 yards downfield all season. He’s attempted just 18 of 105 passes more than 10 yards through the air and just 4 more than 20 yards through the air. He’s not getting anything out of talented outside receiver Dwayne Bowe. He’s just too easy to defend. Eventually, he’ll have to make things happen downfield and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that. He’s also yet to throw an interception on 105 attempts, something else that won’t continue. Between that and the fact that the Chiefs have recovered 85.7% of fumbles, the Chiefs’ +9 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable.

Week 3 Studs

RB Jamaal Charles

LE Tyson Jackson

LOLB Justin Houston

ROLB Tamba Hali

Week 3 Duds

QB Alex Smith

WR Dexter McCluster

RT Eric Fisher

CB Dunta Robinson

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 14

The Chiefs have already matched their win total from a year ago with their 2-0 start. The lesson, as always, fire Romeo Crennel. The upgrade from Crennel to Andy Reid is enormous as is the upgrade from Brady Quinn to Alex Smith. Smith isn’t the greatest quarterback in the world, but he’s stabilized their turnover margin, as the Chiefs have gone from a league worst -24 last season to 0 total turnovers through 2 games thus far this season. That’s allowed their supporting cast to shine, a supporting cat that has been further improved by what looks like the start of a 2nd year breakout year by 2012 1st round pick Dontari Poe.

Week 2 Studs

Studs

Week 2 Duds

CB Brandon Flowers

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Eagles, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS since 1989.

The Eagles are non-divisional home favorites here, but I don’t know if that applies for a few reasons. One, these teams are as familiar with each other as non-divisional teams can be as many of the current Eagles were on the roster last season when Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid was the Head Coach in Philadelphia. Two, I don’t know that the Chiefs are necessarily less experienced than the Eagles. Three, I don’t know if this line is where it should be with the Eagles favored by 3.5.

The Eagles were exposed last week after a big week 1 with a home loss to the Chargers. Their offense was still good, though not quite as good as the week before when they were facing a terrible Washington defense and when their offense was still a complete mystery. However, their defense was atrocious. They’ve really been atrocious all year, allowing 58 first downs and forcing just 4 punts on the season, but they were able to get by week 1 because they forced 3 turnovers, but they can’t rely on having to get a takeaway to stop a drive.

Their offensive style doesn’t help their defense because, if their offensive drive isn’t successful, it doesn’t give the defense any time to rest. Fortunately, they’ve had 48 first downs to 9 punts offensively, but if the Chiefs (32 first downs allowed, 15 punts forced) can force more punts than the Redskins or Chargers, it’s going to be even worse news for their defense, which seems to allow a score every time they’re on the field. The Chiefs aren’t an incredible offense team (36 first downs, 16 punts) by any measure, but they’re not worse than Washington or San Diego and they haven’t turned it over all season.

The real wild card for this game is how the Eagles’ offensive style will be affected by the short week. Will it be harder to execute all of their no huddle stuff with less time to prepare? Will it be even tougher to stop because the defense had less time to watch time? Will it be even more effective because the defense has had less time to recover from last week? Will the offense be equally tired? Thursday Night Games are usually ugly low scoring games, which I think favors the Chiefs, their strong defense, and their conservative/turnover-avoidant offense, but I’m not confident enough to put much on that. I’d probably avoid it all together if the line were an even field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

After forcing just 16 takeaways last season, the Cowboys forced 6 against the Giants week 1. They won’t do that every week, but it’s just another sign that takeaways are very inconsistent on a year to year basis. They’re also very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis unfortunately for the Cowboys as teams who win the turnover battle by 5 have a turnover margin of -0.4 the following week on average. Their secondary will have to play better next week, but the good news is that injury filler starters Nick Hayden and George Selvie dominated in their first career start. So much for them having no depth. Once Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer return, they could have a loaded front. Spencer is expected back this week, though probably in a limited fashion.

Kansas City, meanwhile, apparently really impressed the odds makers last week with their 28-2 win in Jacksonville as this line has shifted from PK to -3 in one week, despite the Cowboys’ strong showing. They certainly looked good last week and I picked them to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback, especially if Dontari Poe keeps this up, and Alex Smith and Andy Reid are infinitely better than Romeo Crennel and Brady Quinn and will stabilize a turnover margin that was a league worst -24 last season. However, we’ve lost all line value with the Chiefs. I also don’t think the Chiefs are the type of team, with Alex Smith under center, capable of beating high quality teams. They have an easy schedule, but this is not one of their easy games.

The Cowboys were one of my pre-season underrated teams too, because of their overall talent level, their new defensive system, and the fact that they wouldn’t be nearly as bad in turnover margin as last season. They won’t win the turnover battle by 5 this week, but they might not need to do so to win here in Kansas City. I don’t think these two teams are equal, as this line suggests. The NFC is just so much better than the AFC. Over the past 2 seasons, the AFC is 6-17 ATS as favorites against the NFC. I’m not going to put anything on it, in case the Cowboys’ can’t fix their secondary problems, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Sure, it was just the Jaguars, but the Chiefs’ defense looked really impressive. As bad as the Jaguars were last season, they were never shut out offensively. Shutting out any NFL team is impressive. The Chiefs already had a bunch of talented players on that unit, but if Dontari Poe can play like he did week 1 going forward and make good on his 1st round talent, it’ll make them even more dangerous, with guys like Brandon Flowers, Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Justin Houston.

Week 1 Studs

LT Branden Albert

C Rodney Hudson

DT Dontari Poe

LOLB Justin Houston

MLB Derrick Johnson

SS Eric Berry

Week 1 Duds

None

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