Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-7

I still like the Chiefs more than the Jaguars as long as Matt Cassel is their quarterback. As long as his turnover rate regresses somewhat to the mean going forward, he’s their best option at quarterback. If not for two defensive touchdowns, the Chiefs could have easily hung with and beaten the Chargers. I suspect with better turnover luck going forward, they will have a couple chances to eke out some victories.

Right now they’re at -20 in turnovers on the year. Even if they were to tie the NFL record of -30, that would still mean a twofold improvement in their turnover margin in the 2nd half of the season. For the record, the record since the merger is -28. Turnovers aside, they rank 31st in yards per play differential and 24th in rate of sustaining drives differential. I would pick them to beat the Jaguars, who are dead last in both, if they played.

Speaking of those two terrible teams, we have to watch them in back to back weeks on Thursday Night Football. I hate this new “everyone gets a primetime game” thing. We shouldn’t have to watch crappy games in primetime just to be fair to everyone. Besides, if you’re not a good team, why would you even want to be on TV for millions to see?

Studs

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 16 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 6 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

LG Ross Hochstein: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Travis Daniels: Allowed 4 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

MLB Jovan Belcher: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RE Ropati Pitoitua: Did not record a pressure on 6 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 1-6

The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation this year. Meanwhile, when Head Coach Romeo Crennel was asked why Jamaal Charles only got 5 carries last week, he said “I’m not exactly sure.” I get that Brian Daboll calls the play, but having no clue why your best offensive player isn’t getting the ball is ridiculous. Both of them should be fired. I have no idea how Romeo Crennel got another Head Coaching job. He’s worse than Todd Haley. That’s hard to do.

And yet they’re not last in these Power Rankings. The lesser of two terrible quarterbacks is starting this week as Brady Quinn suffered a concussion, meaning Matt Cassel will make this start. I thought the decision to start Quinn was a mistake (unless the goal was to secure the #1 overall pick). Cassel was turning the ball over at an incredible rate, but that was bound to regress to the mean eventually. Right now, he has an interception rate of 4.9%, almost double his career rate of 2.5% (not including this season).

Meanwhile, they have a turnover differential of -18. That won’t continue. Not only are they on pace to shatter the record of -30 (they’re on pace for -41), a record that’s stood since 1965, turnovers differential is also inconsistent on a week to week basis, as seen here.  Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.4 per game the rest of the way, which is barely half as bad as what they’ve done through 7 games (-2.6 per game).

Cassel also offers a career YPA that was over a yard per play better than Quinn’s. Unless he continues to throw interceptions at a rate almost double his career rate and the Chiefs continue to lose the turnover battle at a record pace, they’ll look improved with Cassel under center, even if it’s only the difference between 2 and 3 wins, and unfortunately for Chiefs fans, the difference between the 1st pick and the 2nd pick. They should still be able to get the franchise quarterback they need.

Studs

LT Branden Albert: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB Derrick Johnson: 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 6 stops, 1 batted pass, allowed 3 catches for 16 yards on 4 attempts

RE Ropati Pitoitua: 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

LG Jeff Allen: Allowed 2 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 1 attempt

CB Stanford Routt: Allowed 6 catches for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Tamba Hali: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at San Diego Chargers (3-4)

Side note: It’s week 9 already?!?!? What?!?!?!?

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to take the home team, assuming they’re favorites, as home favorites are 45-27 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. The home team not only doesn’t have to travel on a short week, meaning they get more valuable time to practice, game plan, and rest, but they’re also typically a more veteran, experienced team who won’t be fazed by playing on short rest. This trend didn’t work last week as Minnesota lost as home favorites to the Buccaneers, but there’s a simple explanation for that and it’s just that Minnesota is not a veteran, experienced team, despite being favorites, which is why it wasn’t a big play on the hosts.

San Diego is the more veteran, experienced team here and playing at home, but they’re also divisional home favorites. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. Having familiarity with a team, like the Chiefs do with division rival San Diego, nullifies some of the effects of being a young, inexperienced team on the road on a short week. Besides, while the Chargers are technically a veteran, experienced team, you can’t really say they won’t be fazed by playing on a short week. I’m not sure there’s anything that you can say won’t faze them considering how horribly coached they are.

Philip Rivers has a strong career record off a loss as favorites, going 14-9 ATS in this situation in his career, including 12-6 ATS when favored again. This makes sense because good quarterbacks always tend to bounce back after disappointing losses. However, I’m not sure this is the same Philip Rivers anymore. I thought his high turnover rate from 2011 was an outlier and that he’d bounce back, especially since he played so much better in the 2nd half of last season (14 interceptions in games 1-8 and 6 in games 9-16). After all, Eli Manning threw 25 picks in 2010 and he didn’t have such a bad 2011.

However, Rivers’ struggles seem to have carried over into this season. Not only has his turnover rate remained the same, but his YPA of 6.8 YPA is a career low and down over a whole yard per play from his “disappointing 2011.” He doesn’t look like the same player as he was from 2006-2010. Some of the blame falls on his supporting cast. The Chargers have 10 draft picks in the first 3 rounds in the last 3 years and only 2 of them have been used on offensive players, including one, Vincent Brown, who is currently out with an injury (the other is Ryan Mathews). At the same time, no late round picks from those 3 drafts have stepped up and become starters offensively.

Meanwhile, they’ve let key offensive players like Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles walk out the door without replacing them and key cogs in this offense from Rivers’ heyday like Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates are either retired or not playing at nearly the same level, without being properly replaced. Some of the blame can fall on Rivers himself. In his age 31 season, he doesn’t seem to be the same player, for whatever reason. Either way, I don’t see his season turning around this week, especially off 3 days rest.

For the Chiefs, they have a different kind of quarterback issue, namely that all of theirs suck. However, the lesser of two terrible quarterbacks is starting this week as Brady Quinn suffered a concussion, meaning Matt Cassel will make this start on short rest. I thought the decision to start Quinn was a mistake (unless the goal was to secure the #1 overall pick).

Cassel was turning the ball over at an incredible rate, but that was bound to regress to the mean eventually. Right now, he has a interception rate of 4.9%, almost double his career rate of 2.5% (not including this season). Meanwhile, they have a turnover differential of -18. That won’t continue. Not only are they on pace to shatter the record of -30 (they’re on pace for -41), a record that’s stood since 1965, turnovers differential is also inconsistent on a week to week basis, as seen here.  Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.4 per game the rest of the way, which is barely half as bad as what they’ve done through 7 games (-2.6 per game).

Cassel also offers a career YPA that was over a yard per play better than Quinn’s. Even last week in relief against the Raiders, he looked much better than Quinn ever did in his limited action. Before Cassel went down, this team ranked better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drive differential than they do now. With Cassel back under center, that should improve and unless he continues to throw interceptions at a rate almost double his career rate and the Chiefs continue to lose the turnover battle at a record pace, they’ll look improved with Cassel under center. They won’t be good or anything, but they should be able to hang with a Charger team that isn’t very good either.

Even at their current yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives, we are getting line value with the Chiefs at +7.5. The rate of sustaining drives method gives us a calculated “real” line of +7 and the yards per play method gives us a calculated “real” line of +6.5 and that’s including some of Brady Quinn’s playing time. Again, they won’t be good with Matt Cassel under center, but the Chargers aren’t very good either and as long as Cassel is starting, the Chargers don’t deserve to be more than touchdown favorites over them.

The trends also say Kansas City is the right spot. Divisional home favorites like the Chargers are 10-27 ATS off a loss as non-divisional road favorites since 2002. The Chargers lost to the Browns in Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, teams with 1 win or fewer like the Chiefs are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I think the reason for this is twofold. One, these tend to be huge respect games for the bad team. Two, they have an advantage in a divisional game that they wouldn’t have in any other game because it’s a divisional opponent that they know, so they’re undervalued based purely off their record.

I hate betting on a team like the Chiefs, especially as dogs on a Thursday Night, but I like the Chiefs to keep this close for a small play. Unfortunately, San Diego is also my survivor pick this week on a bad week for survivor. Everyone in my top-14 in my Power Rankings has either already been picked or is playing another top-14 team, except Denver who travels to Cincinnati. It was close between the Broncos and Chargers for survivor this week, but I hate picking road teams. San Diego is #15 and Kansas City is #31, so I like the Chargers to win, though I think the Chiefs will cover the 7.5 point spread. Also, I like the under as the under is 70-52 on Thursday Nights.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

San Diego Chargers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 41.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Before the bye, I made a big play on the Chiefs to win in Tampa Bay because I felt they were undervalued because of their terrible turnover differential. I noted how they were on a record worst pace in turnover differential and that, at the very least, that would slow. I also noted how they were recovering a very low percentage of all fumbles that hit the ground, how they were throwing interceptions at a rate far higher than Matt Cassel’s career rate, and how they weren’t forcing a lot of interceptions because of the caliber quarterbacks they had faced. I also brought up the inconsistency of turnovers.

But there was one thing I forgot to take into account: Brady Quinn. I’m not saying I didn’t know he was going to start. I factored him into the equation by basically saying that Quinn’s career interception rate was much lower than Cassel’s this season so even if you didn’t believe that Cassel’s interception rate would eventually go towards his career mark that you had to agree Quinn would be less likely to throw interceptions than Cassel would have.

The issue, however, is Quinn’s career YPA. Quinn’s career YPA is 5.4, more than a yard per attempt lower than not only Cassel’s career YPA, 6.6, but also his season YPA, 6.5. I cited yards per play as one of the statistics that showed the Chiefs were undervalued, but completely forgot to take into account that even though Quinn would be less likely to turn the ball over, he’d severely hurt their yard per play differential and stagnate their offense. That’s exactly what happened as the Chiefs were even in the turnover battle, but managed just 3.8 yards per play on offense. They also surrendered a whopping 9.1 yards per play defensively thanks to several big plays in a 38-10 losing effort.

If Cassel had been the one starting this game, I would have once again used the same argument to call the Chiefs undervalued, citing their yards per play differential in the games Cassel started and that their turnover differential would almost definitely improve for the reasons I listed above. However, for some reason, the Chiefs have chosen to go with Brady Quinn and that stagnant offense once again here this week. As a result, the Chiefs might actually be worse off than yards per play would suggest.

And yards per play doesn’t even suggest they are very good anymore, not after that abysmal showing in Tampa Bay, as they now rank 31st in the league in yards per play. I don’t think their defense will play as poorly as they did in Tampa Bay from here on out. That was an outlier. However, their offense will continue to be as stagnant as long as Quinn is the starter so I think that 31st place ranking is fair at best and possibly even overvalues them.

Using the yards per play method of determining line value, we get that Oakland, who ranks 17th with an even yards per play differential, should be 4.5 favorites here in Kansas City. I don’t just use that method anymore because it undervalues teams that don’t have a lot of big plays and undervalues teams that give up a lot of big plays (like the Chiefs did against Tampa Bay). Instead, I also use rate of sustaining drives differential, which compares how often, on any given set of downs, you convert for a first or score, as opposed to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so.

The Chiefs are better in this statistic because it doesn’t put as much value on the Chiefs’ defensive showing in Tampa Bay as yards per play differential does, as they rank 25th at -4.0%, while Oakland ranks 26th at -4.5%. That suggests that Kansas City should be -3.5 point favorites here at home, but it’s reasonable to expect the Chiefs to sink in that statistic with Quinn under center, stagnating this offense.

Right now, there are 8 teams in the league (Arizona, Seattle, Miami, Oakland, Cleveland, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville) with a worse rate of sustaining drives than Kansas City, who convert for a first or a score on 72.3% of their downs, but most of that is Matt Cassel’s doing and won’t continue under Quinn. Against Tampa Bay, they converted just 60% of their sets of downs for first downs or scores, with 15 first downs, 2 turnovers on downs, 2 turnovers, and 6 punts. Either way we look at it, I think we’re getting line value with the Raiders and the Chiefs do not deserve to be home favorites.

Two trends work against the Chiefs here as well. For one, they’re divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to San Diego to play the Chargers next week. Teams are 14-46 ATS in this spot since 2002. It certainly won’t help that they play San Diego on Thursday Night, just 4 days after this game. Meanwhile, Oakland hosts Tampa Bay next week and is expected to be favored. Dogs before being favorites are 84-46 ATS since 2011.

The Raiders seem like the right side, but it’s not a significant play for two reasons. One, picking Oakland means picking a publicly backed underdog and you’d have to be crazy to pick a publicly backed underdog this week for a significant play because eventually the favorite/underdog disparity will close (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year). If you can bet a favorite and simultaneously fade the public, you have to do it unless there’s a good reason not to (like that doing so means picking Brady Quinn as a favorite).

The 2nd reason is that crappy teams seem to be extra focused out of a bye. Since 1989, teams with 0 or 1 wins are 47-25 ATS out of their bye as long as it’s week 7 or later (those are the super crappy teams). As favorites, those teams are 8-2 ATS as favorites and 23-9 ATS in the division. I just can’t take Brady Quinn as a favorite, especially as a home divisional favorite before being a divisional dog and against a dog that will be a favorite next week. If Matt Cassel were starting, it probably would have been a unit on the Chiefs. Instead, I’m taking the Raiders. Instead of putting a unit on the money line and a unit on the spread, I’m going to put both on the money line. It’s never worth the 15 cents to have protection against a 1 point loss.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 12 OAK 9

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +105 2 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 27 (-3)

Record: 1-5

So if Brady Quinn gets knocked out with a concussion, will Chiefs fans cheer that too or how does this work? That’s what you get for cheering Brady Quinn. You get Brady Quinn. Ranked 23rd in yards per play differential heading into the game, the Chiefs now rank 31st and the Buccaneers, who ranked dead last coming in now rank 22nd. The defense’s struggle to contain deep throws has something to do with that, but if Matt Cassel can return and regress to the norm turnover wise, the Chiefs could still be underrated going forward, but that might not be the optimal outcome for Chiefs fans.

This team desperately needs a franchise quarterback and would be much better off if they bottomed out and ended up in a spot where they could obtain either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley. If Chiefs fans can cheer a concussion if it meant Brady Quinn was coming into the game, can’t they cheer their teams continued losing ways if it means a real quarterback was coming to the organization.

Studs

RT Eric Winston: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

LT Branden Albert: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C Ryan Lilja: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 13 attempts

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 22 of 38 for 180 yards and 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, pressured on 10 of 40 drop backs (4 of 10, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 interception)

WR Dwayne Bowe: Caught 6 passes for 39 yards on 8 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception

CB Stanford Routt: Allowed 4 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles

FS Kendrick Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

MLB Jovan Belcher: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

RE Ropati Pitoitua: Did not record a pressure on 13 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Chiefs are more than a field goal underdog here against a Tampa Bay team that isn’t very good and yet the public still likes Tampa Bay this week. This is because the public sees Kansas City as a joke. As much as I love to fade the public in general, I especially disagree with the public assessment of Kansas City this week. They rank 21st in the league in yards per play differential, as opposed to dead last where Tampa Bay ranks.

Given the difference between these two teams’ differential, the “real” line (calculated by taking the difference, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either for home field) should be -5.5 in favor of Kansas City, meaning we’re getting a whopping 10 points of line value. Even if that sounds ridiculous (and it kind of does to me), know that in order for this line to be valid, Tampa Bay would either have to rank 17th in yards per play differential or Kansas City would have to rank -0.2 yards per play worse than dead last. We’re getting line value with Kansas City, even if you don’t agree it’s 10 points worth.

The reason Kansas City’s yards per play differential is so much better than their record and points differential is turnovers. The Chiefs have a ridiculous -15 turnover differential just 5 games into the season, meaning they’re losing the turnover battle by an average of 3 per game. They’re on pace to be -48 in turnovers, which would surpass the NFL record by 18, a record that’s stood since 1965. They’re not going to continue on this pace. Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.6 per game the rest of the way, which is only half as bad as what they’ve done through 5 games. Basically, even if the Chiefs break a 47 year old record, they’ll still be noticeably improved going forward. That’s why they’re undervalued.

I don’t even think they’ll break that record. They could, but they probably won’t. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

One area where the Chiefs have been especially bad in so far is fumbles. They’ve lost 10 fumbles this year, but they’ve only fumbled 13 times total, which isn’t as bad. Historically numbers will show that recovering fumbles once they’re on the ground is more luck than skill and this tends to even out over time. Even if they continue to fumble 2.6 times per game going forward, which is probably not going to happen, you can expect them to only lose 1.3 per game, rather than the 2 per game they’ve lost thus far. That will make a noticeable difference in their turnover differential.

Another area they’ve been bad in so far is interceptions as they lead the league with 9. This is more skill than fumbles, so it’s not as likely to continue, but maybe a quarterback switch from Matt Cassel to Brady Quinn will have a positive impact. As bad as Quinn has been in his career, his interception rate of 2.5% is pretty average. Through 5 games, Matt Cassel was at 5.1%. If Quinn can even be his career average, it would be more than a 2 times improvement over what we’ve seen from them through 5 games.

The other issue they’ve had is forcing turnovers. They’ve forced just 4 this season, including just 1 fumble. However, they have forced 7 fumbles, but have only managed to recover 1 (ironically it was on special teams). If they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can be expected to recover roughly .7 fumbles per game, which is an improvement of 350% and a half fumble per game over what they’ve done through 5 games.

They’re also just forcing .6 interceptions per game, but remember who their competition has been: Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Joe Flacco. With the exception of Fitzpatrick, none of those quarterbacks throw many interceptions anyway. Last year, they combined to throw an interception on 2.8% of their throws, including a career outlier year by Philip Rivers in interception rate. Facing Kansas City this year, they’ve thrown an interception on 2.2% of their throws. That’s not so awful on Kansas City’s. This week, they face Josh Freeman, whose career interception rate is 3.5%, including 4.0% last year.

If their interception rate cuts in half going forward and they force the same amount of fumbles and fumble with the same frequency going forward, they can be expected to force 6.6 interceptions (unchanged rate), recover 7.7 opponents’ fumbles, lose 14.3 of their own fumbles, and throw 9.9 interceptions going forward, a turnover differential of -11 in their final 11 games, or -1 per game, or a 300% improvement.

That’s not unrealistic. In fact, that’s assuming they don’t play any better, doing things like fumbling less overall, forcing more fumbles, etc., which they could. In fact, history might suggest they will (see the link I posted earlier and the link I will post again soon). It’s also not taking into account what should be a higher rate of forcing interceptions as their competition gets easier. This is a really in depth look into why I don’t put a ton of stock into turnovers. Again, here is the general.

Turnovers aside, Kansas City hasn’t been nearly as bad as people think this year. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is horrendous. I don’t think that’s a secret or anything, but they are dead last in yards per play differential and we’re getting a lot of line value with Kansas City no matter how you look at it. Kansas City is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites with their next game being at home against Oakland. Teams are 73-48 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Chiefs do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

Meanwhile, non-conference dogs of 3+ before being divisional dogs are 23-46 ATS since 2002 and Tampa Bay faces New Orleans next week. Tampa Bay is in a good spot as non-divisional favorites after a bye. Teams are 89-62 ATS in that situation since 2002, but since 1989 (I had to go back there to get enough data), teams are just 15-20 ATS in that situation when their next game is one in which they will be divisional dogs. I considered this to be a co-pick of the week and a 5 unit play. Instead, I’m going with 4 units because Tampa Bay is coming off a bye, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Public lean:  Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: TB 12 KC 5

Final update: Sharps are afraid to bet this game in general as it’s the 2nd least picked game of the week, but I don’t have much of a problem picking the Chiefs as more than a field goal underdog. Besides, Aqib Talib has been suspended for the Buccaneers, which really hurts a pass defense that already ranks dead last in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 1-4

I don’t know what’s a bigger indictment of Matt Cassel: that after a game he ran 51 times to 17 passes, Romeo Crennel said he regrets “not running more,” or that when Matt Cassel went down with a concussion the fans cheered because that meant Brady Quinn would be coming in the game. Brady Quinn. No one has ever cheered Brady Quinn. This reminds me of 2010 when the 49ers fans cheered for Mike Singletary to bench Alex Smith for David Carr. Singletary eventually did that. Then he benched David Carr for Troy Smith and then he benched Troy Smith for David Carr and David Carr for Alex Smith and Alex Smith for Troy Smith and Troy Smith for Alex Smith. Actually, that sounds like something Romeo Crennel would do. How the hell did this guy get another Head Coaching job?

Studs

FS Abram Elam: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles

ROLB Tamba Hali: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

LOLB Justin Houston: 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Dustin Colquitt: 5 punts for 236 yards, 3 inside 20, 1 return for 10 yards, 45.2 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Eric Winston: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

I ranked the Ravens ranked 3rd in my Power Rankings and called them the 2nd best team in the AFC behind Houston because of the head-to-head win over New England and their superior yards per play differential over New England. I think that New England and Baltimore are both going to finish around 12-4 and with Houston likely to win the AFC, that would leave those two tied for the 2nd seed with the tiebreaker going to Baltimore, by virtue of the head-to-head win, making a likely rematch in the AFC divisional round one in which Baltimore would more likely to win

All that being said, this team really needs to kick their inconsistency habit. I came away from their win over Cleveland very unimpressed and disappointed that this team played down to the level of their opponent once again. They’ll have to prove they can avoid doing that this week. Last year, they were just 2-6 ATS outside of the division against non-playoff teams and their one win was in St. Louis after they had been embarrassed the week before in Tennessee. And at home against Arizona, even a loss the week before in Jacksonville wasn’t enough to embarrass them into avoiding a near loss to the Cardinals. They were even worse on the road, not just going 1-4 ATS, but actually 1-4 SU. Losing in Kansas City this week is definitely possible because they lost in similar situations in Jacksonville, Tennessee, Seattle, and San Diego last year.

Kansas City, meanwhile, looked horrendous last week, turning the ball over 6 times en route to a -5 day in turnovers. As a result of this, the odds makers have been able to move the spread 2.5 points (it was -4 last week) and the public is STILL pounding Baltimore, with a very heavy lean. I love betting against the public, especially on heavy leans. What the public doesn’t understand is how inconsistent turnovers are. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 have a turnover differential of an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. That’s essentially true for every turnover differential bracket you can think of. Kansas City is very underrated and undervalued coming off that loss. Their yards per play differential is actually just -0.2, which isn’t terrible.

Speaking of yards per play differential, an old gambling formula says to take the difference, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. By that logic, this formula should be -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but you can argue that should be even lower. The reason Baltimore’s yards per play differential is so good is because Joe Flacco has been very good. You can argue though that he’s not actually an improved quarterback over the rest of his career. The jury is still out.

One thing that’s definitely different for the Ravens this year is their defense and that’s not a good thing. Their defensive yards per play allowed is very pedestrian and a 22nd ranked pass defense has a lot to do with it. The biggest reason for this is that they aren’t getting much of a pass rush as they rank 24th in pass rush productivity. They clearly miss Terrell Suggs.

Matt Cassel and company should be able to move the ball this week, so long as they don’t implode with turnovers again and if Baltimore plays down to the level of the competition yet again, Kansas City could definitely win. The only reasons this isn’t my stand alone pick of the week are that perhaps narrowing beating the Browns last week delivered a wakeup call to them and they won’t play down to the level of the competition. Also, the Ravens are extra rested after a Thursday Night game. Teams off of those games are 111-89 ATS on Sundays since 1989. I wish I had touchdown protection. Still, it’s a significant play and a co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Update: One cool trend, dogs before being favorites are 72-42 ATS since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog.

Sharps lean: BAL 13 KC 7

Final update: The sharps don’t like Kansas City, but this is one instance I’m not afraid to disagree with the sharps. This is the exact type of game Baltimore has trouble with and the public is pounding Baltimore because of how bad Kansas City was last week, even though their only issue was turnovers.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +235

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 1-3

After a 37-20 home loss to the Chargers, the Chiefs have now lost 12 of their 19 losses by 16 or more points since 2010. When it rains, it pours for this team and it definitely poured this week as they turned the ball over 6 times en route to a blowout loss. At one point in the middle of the 2nd quarter, the Chiefs had 14 yards to the Chargers’ 20 points. Now there are calls for Matt Cassel’s job, though it’s not like Brady Quinn will be any better. They won’t be as bad as they were last week as that performance was skewed by 6 turnovers, which won’t happen every week, but it looks like another lost season for them. Hopefully they start over at the quarterback position this offseason.

Studs

C Ryan Lilja: Did not allow a pressure on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 8 attempts

LT Branden Albert: Did not allow a pressure on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for -4 yards on 1 attempts

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 5 attempts

WR Dwayne Bowe: Caught 7 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets on 49 pass snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

FS Abram Elam: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

MLB Jovan Belcher: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, was not thrown on

P Dustin Colquitt: 4 punts for 205 yards, 3 inside 20, 1 return for 0 yards, 51.3 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 targets on 37 pass plays, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 3 passes for 18 yards on 4 targets on 43 pass plays, 1.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 penalties

SS Eric Berry: Allowed 7 catches for 97 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 penalties

LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

NT Dontari Poe: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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