Quarterbacks

The Colts went 8-9 in 2024 but could have been a lot better than that if they had competent quarterback play, as they had an above average roster overall but had the second worst QB rating in the league at 75.8. The other three teams who ranked in the bottom-4 in team QB rating finished with the three worst records in the league, but the Colts managed to be in contention for a playoff spot late into the season because of the strength of the rest of this roster. It’s not a stretch to say that the Colts entered this off-season a quarterback away from being at least a playoff team in the AFC.

The Colts could have gone after Sam Darnold, by far the top available quarterback in free agency this off-season, but doing so would have meant giving up on Anthony Richardson, who they selected 4th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft just two years ago. There is definitely an argument to be made for the Colts doing that, as Richardson was always a very risky pick that high in the draft and has shown nothing in two years in the league to suggest he was worth that pick. 

Richardson missed most of his rookie season with injury and was not particularly good when on the field in 4 starts. He was impressive on the ground with 5.44 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries, but he completed just 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while finishing the season with a 52.2 PFF grade. In 2024, he was arguably worse as a passer, completing 47.7% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while averaging 5.80 YPC and rushing for 6 touchdowns on 86 carries in 11 starts, missing more time due to injury and then briefly getting benched upon his return. Richardson still has upside, but the rest of the Colts’ roster is ready to contend right now and it seems unlikely that Richardson is ready to quarterback a contending team in 2025.

The Colts did add a quarterback this off-season, but it was ex-Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who is a very underwhelming alternative. The Colts did still give him 14 million on a one-year deal, most of which is guaranteed, so there is a good chance he starts games for them this season unless Richardson improves significantly, but the addition of Jones is probably more about trying to give Richardson a wake-up call and some competition rather than trying to replace him. 

In six seasons in the league, Jones has made 69 starts, but has just a 84.3 QB rating, worst among quarterbacks with at least 1,200 pass attempts over that time period. He is a solid runner, averaging 5.46 YPC with 15 touchdowns on 399 carries in his career, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Richardson, but he also might not be an upgrade over Joe Flacco, who isn’t mobile, but had a 90.5 QB rating across 248 pass attempts last season. It’s unlikely the Colts will even get average quarterback play out of either of their quarterback options, so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs, even with a roster that looks likely to be above average overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

If there is one area the Colts could be worse this season than last season, it is their offensive line, which lost a pair of week one starters from last season in right guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly. Fries and Kelly had PFF grades of 86.9 and 67.0 respectively last season, but they were limited to 5 starts and 10 starts respectively by injuries and the Colts had replacements that played pretty well in their absence, so those losses might not be as big of a deal as they seem.

Kelly will be replaced by Tanor Bortolini, a 2024 4th round pick who played 351 snaps as a rookie, mostly at center, where he started 5 games. He had a decent 65.1 PFF grade and, while he is a projection to a season-long role, he looks like he could be at least a capable starter long-term. Fries, meanwhile, will be replaced by Matt Goncalves, a 2024 3rd round pick who mostly saw action at tackle last season, but who had a solid 65.9 PFF grade across 566 snaps. He’s changing positions and, like Bortolini, he is a projection to a season-long role, but he also could at least be a capable starter.

The Colts are also hoping to get healthier years out of tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann, who were limited to 12 games and 14 games respectively last season. Smith also fell to a career worst 65.7 PFF grade, after finishing above 70 in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, including three seasons over 80, with his most recent being a career best 83.3 in 2023. Smith is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat and, while durability has been a concern for him in recent years, as he’s missed at least five games in three of the past four seasons, it’s definitely possible he plays more games than he did last year as well.

Raimann is coming off of a career best year, with a 85.1 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick has been above average since his rookie year and has gotten better in every season in the league, with PFF grades of 73.3 and 82.7 in his first two seasons in the league. Raimann was an old rookie and is already in his age 28 season, but he should remain a high level starter in 2025, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also played at a high level in 2024, finishing with a 81.3 PFF grade, while making all 17 starts. It wasn’t anything new for Nelson, as he has finished above 80 on PFF in three of seven seasons in the league, but he also has been inconsistent in his career, especially in recent years, with PFF grades of 69.1, 68.4, and 70.8 in 2021, 2022, and 2023, prior to last season’s dominant campaign. Nelson is still in his prime in his age 29 season, but his history of inconsistency means he could regress significantly from a year ago, though that’s not a guarantee.

The big concern on this offensive line is depth. The Colts had good depth a year ago, with Bortolini and Goncalves ready to slide into starting roles when called upon, but they will begin the season in the starting lineup this season and, without them as reserves, their reserve options are now questionable. Dalton Tucker made seven starts at right guard last season when Will Fries was out, but he struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade. He’s a 2024 undrafted free agent who would likely continue to struggle in 2025 if forced back into a starting role, but he’s probably their top reserve option at guard.

Danny Pinter, a 2020 5th round pick, is their top reserve at center and he’s been decent when called upon in five seasons in the league since going in the 5th round in 2020, but he’s only made nine starts in those five seasons, so he’s pretty unproven. At tackle, their top reserve options are likely Blake Freeland, who had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2023, before playing just 23 mediocre snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Jalen Travis. It’s highly unlikely all five of the Colts’ offensive line starters stay healthy all season in 2025, so at some point their depth will be tested, which is a big concern. This is an above average starting five, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade upfront.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ passing game struggled last season due to their quarterback play, but they got great play from their wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been their #1 receiver for four seasons, leading the team in targets in all of those seasons, while averaging a 91/992/4 slash line per season and 1.77 yards per route run. Last year was actually a down year for him, as he had a 69/808/3 slash line and 1.68 yards per route run. There were a few reasons for that. Obviously, poor quarterback play had something to do with it. Pittman also played most of the season through a back injury that only cost him one game but that likely limited his effectiveness. 

On top of that, Pittman had a smaller target share than he was used to (111 targets, as opposed to 142 on average in his previous three seasons), as a result of other wide receivers emerging around him. That looks likely to continue being the case in 2025. Josh Downs, a 2023 2nd round pick, seems like he has emerged as the long-term #1 wide receiver. He had fewer targets than Pittman in 2024 (107), but only because he missed three games with injury. He was the more efficient of the two receivers, averaging a team leading 2.20 yards per route run, which led to a 72/803/5 slash line, after a 1.60 yards per route run average and a 68/771/2 slash line as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league and his age 24 season, Downs looks likely to at least be an above average wide receiver for years to come and has the upside to get even better.

Another recent second round pick, Alec Pierce, had a mini breakout season in 2024, with a 1.82 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.02 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league combined. Pierce did that despite only getting 69 targets, which he took for a 37/824/7 slash line. Pierce is a bit of a one-dimensional deep threat, but he will continue having a role in this offense going forward, especially if the gunslinging Anthony Richardson winds up as the quarterback. The Colts also have 2024 2nd round pick Adonai Mitchell waiting in the wings as the #4 receiver. He had a decent rookie season, with 1.51 yards per route run and he still has further upside, so he is a great option as far as #4 receivers go.

The big weakness of this receiving corps last season was the tight end position, as no tight end had more than 31 targets, 14 catches, 182 yards, or 1.00 yards per route run. The Colts upgraded the tight end position in a big way though, using the 14th overall pick on Tyler Warren. Warren was one of the top prospects in the draft overall, but fell to the Colts because tight ends have a relatively low position value and because this draft class had another elite tight end prospect in Colston Loveland. He should be a big boost for this receiving corps right away.

Kylen Granson was the Colts’ de facto #1 receiving tight end last season with a 14/182/0 slash line and he wasn’t retained this off-season, but he won’t be needed with Warren being added and the Colts do still have Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree, who, while they aren’t good receivers, are good blockers and will still be useful in that role behind Warren. Alie-Cox has an average of 1.24 yards per route run for his career, but it has fallen to 0.86 over the past three seasons leading to PFF grades of 48.2, 60.8, 64.5 and now he is heading into his age 32 season. 

Meanwhile, Ogletree, a 6th round pick in 2022, has only averaged 1.05 yards per route run in his career, but has PFF grades of 66.2 and 69.1 over the past two seasons due primarily to his run blocking. At this stage of his career, he is probably the better option. Both will probably see roles, but Ogletree makes more sense as the #2 behind Warren. The addition of Warren as a big upgrade at the primary receiving tight end position in a receiving corps that already had a lot of talent at the wide receiver position makes this an impressive receiving corps overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts finished last season 8th in yards per carry, 7th in carries, and 8th in rushing yards last season. A lot of that had to do with Anthony Richardson, who not only had a 5.80 YPC on 86 carries, but additionally his presence in the backfield made life much easier for running backs because opposing defenses had to worry about the quarterback taking off and running himself. In fact, in 10 games in which Richardson played the majority of the team’s quarterback snaps, the Colts averaged 4.96 YPC across 308 carries per game, as opposed to 4.28 YPC across 188 carries per game in their other 7 games. 

Lead back Jonathan Taylor averaged 4.72 YPC on 303 carries, ranking 4th in the league with 1,431 rushing yards as a result. For Taylor, it was his third 1000+ yard season in five seasons in the league, but his first since he rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) as a rookie in 2020 and 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) in his second season in the league in 2021. In his third and fourth seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, he combined for just 1,602 yards and 11 touchdowns on 361 carries (4.44 YPC), while missing 13 total games due to injury. 

Taylor seemed to bounce back in 2024, but he benefited significantly from playing alongside Richardson in the backfield, and with a great offensive line in front of him (4th in PFF run blocking grade). His 2.68 yards per carry after contact was the worst of his career, after averaging 3.33 yards per carry after contact across his first four seasons in the league combined, while his 11.9% missed tackle rate was also a career low, after an average of 19.2% in his first four seasons in the league combined. Taylor also still missed another three games with injury, so he didn’t exactly shed his injury prone label last season. He still has a good chance to be a highly productive lead back in this offense, but he’s not as good as his overall numbers suggested last season, and he’ll probably miss more time due to injury this season.

Depth was an issue for the Colts at running back last season, as top reserve Trey Sermon only averaged 2.84 yards per carry on 56 carries. He wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Khalil Herbert, who will probably be an upgrade, but maybe by default. Herbert averaged 4.87 yards per carry, including 3.20 yards per carry after contact, in his first three seasons in the league with the Bears, who selected him in the 6th round in 2021, but he fell out of the Bears running back rotation last season and was traded to the Bengals mid-season, where he still had trouble getting on the field, finishing last season with just 36 carries and just a 3.61 yards per carry average. He has bounce back potential in 2025 and is unlikely to have to play a big role other than in games when Taylor is absent, so he’s not a bad fit for his role.

The Colts also have Tyler Goodson as their third string running back for the second straight year. The 2022 undrafted free agent has averaged 5.33 yards per carry on 45 carries in his career. He’s unlikely to have a big role even if Jonathan Taylor misses significant time with injury. Taylor will likely remain the primary back on passing downs as well, but he only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average, including 0.50 last season, when he finished the season with just a 18/136/1 slash line. Herbert, however, has an even worse 0.68 yards per route run in his career, so he’s not a better option, while Goodson has only averaged 0.91 yards per route run in limited action. The Colts’ backfield isn’t as good as their production looked last season, but this isn’t a bad backfield either and they have a good chance to be highly productive again.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Colts’ defense was the strength of this team last season, as they ranked 20th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed. They made some changes this off-season, but they weren’t necessarily bad ones and all of their best players from a year ago remain, as all seven players who played more than 500 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 70 remain on the team. The strength of this defense was the interior defender position, where DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart ranked first and second on the team in PFF grade among players with more than 500 snaps, finishing at 81.9 and 76.0 respectively on snap counts of 579 and 690. 

Both are accomplished players, as DeForest Buckner has finished above 70 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 80, while Stewart has finished above 60 in each of the past six seasons, including three seasons over 70 in the past four seasons. The problem is they are going into their age 31 and age 32 seasons and could start to decline this season. They could remain at least solid starters even if they do decline, particularly Buckner, who is one year younger and starting from a higher base point, but if both decline noticeably, it will hurt this defense significantly. 

The other problem is the Colts don’t have good depth behind them. This was the case last season as well, when Raekwon Davis (349 snaps), Taven Bryan (340 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (137 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 37.1, 58.2, and 57.9 respectively as the top reserves. Davis and Bryan are gone, replaced by free agent additions Neville Gallimore and Eric Johnson, as well as 6th round rookie Tim Smith, none of whom are an upgrade. 

Gallimore will probably be their top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he has averaged just 307 snaps per season in his career, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons. Johnson is returning to the Colts, who selected him in the 5th round in 2022 originally, but he has played just 570 snaps in three seasons in the league since, while finishing with PFF grades of 47.4, 30.5, and 54.2 respectively. Adebawore will also likely remain in the mix for a role, despite struggling across a total of just 269 snaps played in two seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. Even the late round rookie Tim Smith could be in the mix for a reserve role, which says more about the Colts’ depth at this position than it does about Smith. Buckner and Stewart could remain a great starting duo, but their ages are a concern and the Colts’ lack of depth behind them is a concern as well.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Colts were led by first round rookie Laiatu Latu, who had a 71.5 PFF grade across 618 snaps. Now going into his second season in the league, Latu has the potential to be even better in 2025. He figures to continue starting opposite Kwity Paye, another former first round pick, who has PFF grades of 69.6, 69.6, 74.3, and 66.8 in four seasons in the league across an average of 638 snaps per season. Now going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Dayo Odeyingbo was also above average last season with a 66.1 PFF grade across 746 snaps, but he left as a free agent this off-season. However, the Colts do get back Samson Ebukam after he missed all of last season due to injury. Ebukam has finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven healthy seasons in the league, including a career best 84.4 PFF grade across 703 snaps in his most recent season in 2023. It seems unlikely he’ll repeat his career best season two years later, with a major injury in between, and he’s also now going into his age 30 season, but he has a good chance to be an effective rotational player.

The Colts also added JT Tuimoloau in the second round of this year’s draft to give themselves some added depth at the edge defender position and he will compete with veteran Tyquan Lewis, who played 355 snaps last season, for a role. Lewis has finished above 60 on PFF in four of the past five seasons, including a 65.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s only played 336 snaps per season in his career and he now heads into his age 30 season. The Colts don’t have any clear star players at the edge defender position, but they look solid overall at this spot.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Colts also lost starting linebacker EJ Speed this off-season, but he was below average with a 56.4 PFF grade across 1,011 snaps last season and the Colts have a promising replacement for him in Jaylon Carlies, a 2024 5th round pick who flashed a lot of potential with a 70.0 PFF grade across 242 snaps as a rookie. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Speed and he gives them a higher upside at the position than his predecessor. Carlies will start next to Zaire Franklin, who had a 60.4 PFF grade across 1,157 snaps last season, in line with the 57.0 PFF grade across 1,136 snaps he had in 2022 and the 60.9 PFF grade across 1,090 snaps he had in 2023. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The concern with this group in the absence of Speed is their lack of depth, without any good replacements added for Carlies’ old reserve role. Joe Bachie was added in free agency and Hunter Wohler was added in the draft, but Bachie is a career special teamer who has played 238 snaps on defense in five seasons in the league, while Wohler is just a 7th round rookie. Segun Olubi remains, but he has played just nondescript 136 snaps since going undrafted in 2022. Cameron McGrone also remains, but he has played just 9 snaps since getting drafted in the 5th round in 2021. One of those players would have to play a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart. This is an underwhelming linebacking corps overall, but that isn’t much different than last season.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Colts had a solid trio at cornerbacks last season with Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, and Samuel Womack receiving PFF grades of and 70.8, 67.4, and 71.4 across snap counts of 1,013, 1,146, and 673 respectively. There are reasons why all three might not be quite as good again in 2025 though. For Moore, the issue is his age, as he has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of eight seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, but now heads into his age 31 season. 

Moore could remain at least a solid starter unless he declines significantly, but he’s likely to be worse in 2025 than 2024. For Womack and Jones, the issue is they are one-year wonders, as Womack is a 2022 5th round pick who had played just 216 snaps in his career prior to last season, while Jones is a 2023 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.8 PFF grade across 788 snaps as a rookie before last season. Both could continue being solid players in 2025, but they could also regress.

Fortunately, the Colts did add Charvarius Ward in free agency on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal. Ward struggled in 2024 with a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps, but he was dealing with serious issues in his personal life that almost definitely affected his play. Prior to 2024, Ward had been one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing with PFF grades of 83.2 and 82.6 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Ward has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. He figures to be locked into a starting job outside based on his salary, leaving the other three to compete for roles. The Colts also used a third round pick on Justin Walley, but he would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see a significant role in year one.

In addition to Chavarius Ward, the Colts also signed Cam Bynum in free agency, replacing free agent departure Justin Blackmon, who had a 69.3 PFF grade across 987 snaps last season. Bynum signed for 4 years, 60 million, but, even though Blackmon remains unsigned as of this writing, going from Bynum to Blackmon was basically a lateral move, as Bynum has PFF grades of 58.2, 73.2, and 63.0 in three seasons as a starter. He’s not a bad starting option, but was likely overpaid.

Bynum will start next to Nick Cross, who remains as the other starter. Cross had a solid 70.3 PFF grade in his first full season as a starter in 2024, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 292 snaps in 2023. He’s still only a one-year starter and is relatively unproven as a result, but he is also still only in his age 24 season, so he has the upside to get even better if he can take a step forward in his fourth season in the league.

Rodney Thomas will likely remain the Colts’ top reserve safety. He only played 98 snaps in that role last season because both of their starting safeties stayed healthy, but he could easily end up being called upon more this season. A 7th round pick in 2022, Thomas was a starter earlier in his career, playing snap totals of 720 and 962 in his first two seasons in the league, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 58.2 PFF grade respectively, so he is better off as a reserve. Overall, this looks like an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Colts’ primary kicker last season was Matt Gay, who was slightly below average with 0.68 points below average. Gay started every game except one, when undrafted rookie Spencer Shrader filled in as an injury replacement. Shrader went on to play for the Chiefs and Chargers last season as well and actually made every kick, going 5/5 on field goals and 9/9 on extra points in four games, accumulating 2.11 points above average. This off-season, the Colts opted to bring back Shrader and release Gay. The Colts also added undrafted free agent Maddux Trujillo to compete with Shrader, but Shrader seems likely to be the favorite for the job in 2025. He’s still pretty unproven, but showed a lot of potential last season and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Matt Gay.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Colts once again have an above average roster, but will likely once again be limited by their quarterback play, which looks likely to be among the worst in the league again. If either of their quarterback options, Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, can exceed expectations and be even a capable starter in 2025, this team would likely make the post-season, but the odds are against that happening.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in AFC South

Quarterback

The Colts surprisingly contended for a playoff spot in 2023, finishing 9-8 and ranking 20th in DVOA, a year after finishing 4-12-1 and dead last in the NFL in DVOA. Their offense was the biggest reason for their turnaround, as their defense actually fell from 13th in DVOA to 20th, while their offense went from dead last to 13th. The quarterback position was a huge problem for the Colts in 2022, ranking 29th in team QB rating at 79.2, leading to the Colts selecting quarterback Anthony Richardon with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but their turnaround last season was not as a result of Richardson.

In fact, Richardson was mediocre in just four starts before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Considered a raw prospect as a passer coming into the league, Richardson showed it in his limited action, with 59.5% completion, 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, though he did also show his athleticism as a runner, rushing for 126 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries (5.44 YPC). In Richardson’s absence, veteran Gardner Minshew was the starter and he provided some stability at the position, but ultimately was underwhelming and, to the extent he deserves credit for the Colts being better offensively last season, it’s only because he was better by default than what the Colts had at the position in 2022.

Minshew’s stats don’t look bad, as he completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but they’re not great either and he finished the season just 34th among 45 eligible quarterbacks on PFF with a 62.0 grade. Minshew wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by another veteran Joe Flacco. Flacco was better in 2023 than Minshew was, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while receiving a 74.2 PFF grade, but that came in just 5 starts after being signed by the Browns mid-season. It was also his best PFF grade since 2014 and came after a 8-year stretch from 2015-2022 in which he completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 6.35 YPA, 84 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions. Now going into his age 39 season, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2024 if forced into action as he was in a small sample size in 2023.

The Colts will be hoping Flacco doesn’t have to see significant action and remains nothing more than an insurance option, with Richardson set to take back his starting job, now healthy going into his second season in the league. It’s tough to know what to expect from Richardson in 2024, given how raw he was entering the league and how little he played as a rookie. He has a huge upside, but also a huge potential downside, giving the Colts one of the biggest ranges of potential outcomes at the quarterback position of any team in the league. 

Richardson’s playing style also exposes him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, so there’s a better than average chance that he misses more time. Because of all of that, the Colts are one of the most difficult teams in the league to predict in 2024. If Richardson can play up to his potential and stay healthy, this team has enough talent on both sides of the ball to be contenders, but it’s also possible that he’s a downgrade from Minshew and the Colts, who already weren’t quite as good as their record suggested last season, regress in terms of win total as a result. I’m going to grade the Colts’ quarterback room based on an average of the best case and worst case scenario, but the range of outcomes is huge here.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Regardless of how he plays, expect this offense to look different in 2024 than it did in 2023, when the Colts had a balanced approach with 574 passing attempts (18th in the NFL) and 479 rushing attempts (11th in the NFL). With Richardson taking off and running often, I would expect the Colts to be close to the top of the league in rushing attempts and close to the bottom of the league in pass attempts. That should overall have a negative effect on the production of this group of receivers.

Kept this off-season on a 3-year, 70 million dollar extension after being franchise tagged, Michael Pittman should remain the #1 option, as he has been for the past few years, leading the team in receiving in three straight years with slash lines of 88/1082/6, 99/925/4, and 109/1152/4, dating back to the 2020 2nd round pick’s second season in the league in 2021. Over that stretch, Pittman has averaged 1.79 yards per route run, despite less than stellar quarterback play. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect a similar average per route this season, possibly a little higher or a little lower depending on how Richardson turns out to be, but his overall receiving total will probably go down as the number of routes he runs likely decreases, barring a massive breakout as a passer by Richardson.

Josh Downs, a 2023 3rd round pick, finished second on this team in receiving yardage with a 68/771/2 slash line last season, despite playing significantly fewer snaps (1,090 vs. 788) and running significantly fewer routes (605 vs. 483) than Alec Pierce, who only totalled a 32/514/2 slash line, averaging just 0.85 yards per route run, as opposed to 1.60 for Downs. Now going into his second season in the league, I would expect Downs to take on a bigger role at Pierce’s expense, which could lead to Downs’ receiving yardage total increasing, even on a more run heavy offense.

Pierce, meanwhile, still has upside as a 2022 2nd round pick, but his career has not gotten off to a good start with a 1.02 yards per route run average. In addition to Downs likely seeing a bigger role in 2024, the Colts also used 2nd and 5th round picks in this year’s draft on Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould and especially Mitchell could eat into Pierce’s playing time even further. Likely to see a smaller target share on a more run heavy offense, Pierce could see a significant decrease in his receiving yardage total in 2024, even if he himself happens to take a step forward as a player. 

The Colts are not nearly as deep at the tight end position and, with a lot of promising young talent at the wide receiver position on an offense that will probably be more run heavy this season, expect the tight end position to not be a big part of this offense in 2024, probably even less so than 2023, when Colts tight ends saw just 119 of 546 targets go their way (21.8% target share), with none receiving more than 50. Those targets were split among four tight ends that all saw playing time, which doesn’t include Jelani Woods, a 2022 3rd round pick who flashed potential with a 25/312/3 slash line and a 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie, before missing all of 2023 with injury. 

In Woods’ absence, playing time went to Kylen Granson (496 snaps), Mo Alie-Cox (434 snaps), Andrew Ogletree (336 snaps), and Will Mallory (159 snaps), who all return in 2024 to compete for playing time with the now healthy Jelani Woods, who should at least be involved in the passing game, though he was mediocre as a blocker as a rookie. Mallory having the least playing time last season might make it seem like he’ll be the odd man out in the likely scenario that only four tight ends make the Colts’ final roster, but the 2023 5th round pick was actually the most efficient of the bunch in 2023 in a limited sample size, averaging 1.62 yards per route run while holding up decently as a blocker, so the Colts might want to keep the young tight end on their roster for another year to see how he develops.

Drew Ogletree (2022 6th round pick) and Kylen Granson (2021 4th round pick) are also both young players. Granson turned his position leading 50 targets into a 30/368/1 slash line and a decent 1.27 yards per route run average last season, in line with his career 1.26 yards per route run average. He probably will see fewer targets this season and he’s consistently struggled as a blocker in his career, but would seem to have a good shot to at least make the roster, if not see a significant snap total again. Ogletree, meanwhile, is much more likely to be the odd man out, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run last season, after not playing a snap as a rookie, and then getting into some trouble off the field this off-season. He was decent as a blocker last season, but that might not be enough to save his roster spot.

Mo Alie-Cox is the veteran of the bunch, going into his 8th season in the league and his age 31 season. He’s the best blocker of the bunch, which is useful given the type of offense this figures to be in 2024, but he’s averaged just 0.98 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined and his age is becoming a concern. The Colts can also save 5.92 million by cutting him this off-season, much more than they would save by cutting any of their other tight ends, so it’s possible the Colts move on and go with a complete youth movement at the tight end position. This is a very young receiving corps overall, but they at least have a lot of upside.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line was a big improvement from 2022 to 2023, ranking 23rd on PFF in pass blocking grade and 13th in run blocking grade in 2022, before ranking 6th in both pass blocking and run blocking grade in 2023, despite the fact that the personnel didn’t really change. The personnel remains largely the same in 2024 and their results figure to be closer to 2023 than 2022. Second year left tackle Bernhard Raimann was good as a rookie in 2022, but he was even better in 2023, finishing with a 82.7 PFF grade. Raimann was an old rookie and is already going into his age 27 season, which is why he fell to the third round, but he’s still in the prime of his career and should continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if it’s possible he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago. 

Center Ryan Kelly was also much better in 2023 than he was in 2022, jumping from a 64.3 PFF grade to a 77.2 PFF grade. In fact, his 2023 campaign was his highest PFF grade of his career, despite the fact that it was his 8th season in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, Kelly could start to decline soon and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again. He’s mostly been a solid starter in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven seasons and surpassing 70 in four seasons, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing at the level he played at in 2023.

Right tackle Braden Smith also had a career best PFF grade in 2023 with 83.3, but he also missed seven games with injury and he’s been close to that good in the past, exceeding 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Smith should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and, even if he isn’t as good as he was in 2023, he should more than make up for that by playing more games, which would be a big boost because his backup Blake Freeland had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps (nine starts, with two of those coming at left tackle when Raimann missed time). Aside from last season, Smith has only missed 10 games in his career, so he’s not that injury prone. 

The Colts also got better play at right guard. Not only did Will Fries improve slightly from a 58.4 PFF grade in 2022 to a 61.2 PFF grade in 2023, he also made more starts (17 vs. 9), which was a big boost because the Colts’ other starting right guards struggled mightily in 2022. Fries was only a 7th round pick in 2021 and has only been a marginal starter for one season, but he wasn’t that much worse in 2022 and has a good chance to continue being a marginal starter in 2024, only his age 26 season.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also was better in 2023 than 2022, improving from a 68.4 PFF grade to a 70.8 PFF grade, but that’s still a far cry from the player he was earlier in his career. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, receiving PFF grades of 79.7, 91.2, and 86.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he missed four games with injury in his 4th season in the league in 2021 and hasn’t been the same player since then, with last year being his best season since his first three seasons. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but it’s also very possible his best days are already  behind him.

Depth was a big issue for this group a year ago, with their top reserve tackle Blake Freeland and their top reserve interior offensive lineman Wesley French (48.4 PFF grade on 270 snaps) both struggling mightily. To try to improve this, the Colts used a 3rd round pick on tackle Matt Goncalves and a 4th round pick on guard Tanor Bortolini. Freeland and French still remain, but there is a chance that the rookies beat them out for the top reserve jobs, particularly Goncalves as the swing tackle. 

Freeland is also a 2023 4th round pick who could have some untapped upside and be better in year two, though French is only a 2022 undrafted free agent who could easily never develop into even a decent backup. Relying on rookies and unproven players, the Colts’ depth is a concern on the offensive line, but they at least have a solid starting five, with only center Ryan Kelly likely to regress significantly from last season’s performance.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts’ running game was effective in 2023, even without Anthony Richardson for most of the season, as they finished 10th in team yards per carry with 4.30. The Colts’ offensive line had a lot to do with that, but their running backs weren’t bad either. Zach Moss led the team in carries (183) and rushing yards (794), surprising considering he was a career backup with 301 carries in three seasons in the league prior to last season, while their other back Jonathan Taylor is a former rushing champion who the Colts extended on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal last season, making him the third highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

Moss out-producing Taylor happened because Taylor missed seven games with injury and was limited in terms of his effectiveness when he did play. He still was more effective than Moss on a per carry basis, with a 74.9 PFF grade (66.9 for Moss), a 4.38 YPC average (4.34 for Moss), and 3.12 yards per carry after contact (2.79 for Moss), and he scored 7 rushing touchdowns to Moss’ 5, but that was a far cry from what Taylor has done at his best. 

Taylor also was limited with injuries in 2022, rushing for 861 yards and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries (4.48 YPC) in 11 games and posting a 67.6 PFF grade, but he led the NFL in rushing in 2021, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) and a 87.1 PFF grade, and he also had an impressive season as a second round rookie in 2020, rushing for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) and posting a 83.9 PFF grade. 

Moss signed with the Bengals as a free agent this off-season, so this is entirely Jonathan Taylor’s backfield again, with only 2023 5th round pick Evan Hull (one carry as a rookie) remaining as a legitimate backup option. Durability remains a concern for Taylor, especially at a position with the most injury risk, but he’s still only in his age 25 season and has a lot of bounce back potential, especially with Richardson in the backfield with him to give this rushing offense another dimension. Running backs tend to have higher YPC averages when sharing the backfield with a mobile quarterback and that could benefit Taylor significantly if both he and Richardson can stay healthy.

The flip side of that is mobile quarterbacks don’t tend to throw to running backs often, as they can just take off and run with it themselves when there’s nothing open downfield, but pass catching has never been a big part of Taylor’s game anyway, with 123 catches in 53 career games and a career 1.03 yards per route run average. Taylor figures to play close to every down, with none of the Colts’ other running back options being legitimate pass catchers either, but I wouldn’t expect many targets to go his way. Still, the rushing upside is enormous for him, as a highly talented runner, sharing a backfield with a mobile quarterback, without a legitimate threat behind him for carries. If Taylor misses more time with injury, the Colts would be in trouble due to the lack of a legitimate backup option, but Taylor has as much upside as a runner as any running back in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Without many pressing needs on offense, the Colts used their first round pick, 15th overall, on defense, the first team in this year’s draft to select a defensive player, in one of the most offense heavy first rounds of all time. It wasn’t surprising the Colts selected a defensive player, but the position was surprising, as the Colts took edge defender Laiatu Latu, rather than addressing what seemed to be more pressing needs elsewhere. The Colts ranked 5th in the NFL with 51 sacks last season and are just three years removed from using both first and second round picks on edge defenders, taking Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, who both saw significant roles last season (700 snaps and 623 snaps respectively), as did veterans Samson Ebukam (703 snaps) and Tyquan Lewis (437 snaps).

Paye and Odeyingbo had solid sack totals in 2023 with 8.5 and 8 respectively and the Colts picked up Paye’s 5th year option for 2025, but neither of them had good peripheral pass rush stats, with pressure rates of 6.8% and 7.9% respectively, in line with their career averages of 8.8% and 8.3% respectively. Paye excels as a run stopper, leading to a 74.3 PFF grade overall in 2023, after PFF grades of 69.5 and 69.7 in 2021 and 2022, despite his low pressure rate, which could be the biggest reason why his option was picked up, but Odeyingbo was not effective in that aspect either and has received grades of 61.4, 62.6, and 56.9 from PFF through three seasons in the league. 

With Latu coming in, both Paye and Odeyingbo will probably see smaller snap counts in 2024 and it seems unlikely that Odeyingbo will be extended ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2024. Odeyingbo also has good size at 6-6 286 and could play on the interior in pass rush situations more often this season, something he already did on occasion in 2023, as did the 6-3 267 pound Tyquan Lewis. Latu might not have a big rookie year role, but he at least adds even more depth to this group.

With Paye and Odeyingbo not having pressure rates that matched that sack totals in 2023, Samson Ebukam was their best edge defender, posting a 84.4 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It was a surprising season for Ebukam, a 2017 4th round pick who had never exceeded a 69.1 PFF grade in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while totaling just 23.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Still only in his age 29 season, Ebukam is still theoretically in his prime, but it seems unlikely he’ll have by far the best season of his career again in 2024. 

There’s still a good chance Ebukam plays at an above average level this season, but I would expect him to regress, possibly significantly. Tyquan Lewis also had an impressive season in 2023, albeit in a smaller, rotational role, posting an overall 73.7 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. For Lewis, it was also a career best year, in terms of snaps played, PFF grade, and pressure rate, as he had combined for 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 48 career games prior to last season. 

Lewis was a second round pick in 2018, so he’s always had talent, but it also seems unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, now in his age 29 season. He’s also been injury prone throughout his career, playing more than 9 games in a season just twice in six seasons in the league. Lewis could remain a useful rotational player in 2024 and his versatility is valuable, but I would expect him to regress at least somewhat and probably miss more time with injury. This is a deep group with first round pick Laiatu Latu being added, but both Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis are unlikely to repeat last season’s performances, while Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo were not as good of pass rushers as their sack totals suggested in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a need this off-season for the Colts and one the Colts could have addressed in the first round of the draft (the Seahawks took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy one pick after theirs). Instead, it looks like they will try to fill their need at this position by loading up at the edge defender position and playing Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis inside more often, which might not be the best solution, unless Latu turns out to be a much better pro than Byron Murphy long-term. 

The Colts have a good starting duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart at the interior defender spot, but both are getting up there in age, going into their age 30 and age 31 seasons respectively, and their depth behind them is suspect, even if Odeyingbo and Lewis see more action inside this season. That depth was exposed last season when Stewart was limited to 445 snaps in 11 games by suspension. Stewart still had a 76.2 PFF grade when he played, but their top reserves Taven Bryan (343 snaps), Eric Johnson (265 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (132 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 51.3, 30.5, and 27.5 respectively. 

Stewart has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, surpassing 70 twice, playing at his best against the run at 6-4 314 pounds, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate over those five seasons and playing close to an every down role (40.0 snaps per game). His age is a concern and he may start to decline this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he remains at least a capable starter. Originally a free agent this off-season, the Colts gave him a significant contract to stay, re-signing him for 39 million over 3 years.

Buckner, meanwhile, has always been the better player, exceeding 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 80, including three of the past four. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 61 sacks, 109 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 129 career games, but he also holds up against the run and averages 53.1 snaps per game for his career, while missing just two games in eight seasons in the league. Even if he starts to decline in 2024, he should continue playing at a high level, given how high of a base point he would be declining from.

The Colts signed Raekwon Davis in free agency this off-season to give them more depth, but he is a very underwhelming addition, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and totaling just a 5.4% pressure rate in four seasons in the league, while averaging 511 snaps per season. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but he’s already going into his age 27 season, so he might not really have much untapped upside. Even as a reserve, he’s not a great option and he’s unlikely to live up to a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal the Colts gave him this off-season.

Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson, and Adetomiwa Adebawore all return as reserves and I wouldn’t expect much out of any of them. Bryan has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, on an average of 449 snaps per season. Johnson and Adebawore are at least young, going in the 5th round in 2022 and 4th round pick in 2023, but neither have shown anything as professionals yet, with Johnson also struggling as a rookie (47.4 PFF grade on 127 snaps) and it’s very possible they’ll never develop into even decent reserves. Buckner and Stewart remain a good starting duo, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 now and the Colts’ depth at this position is still a significant issue.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Just a couple years ago, the Colts’ top linebacker was Shaq Leonard, who was also one of the best linebackers in the league, but injuries sapped his abilities over the past couple seasons and he had just a 60.3 PFF grade on 454 snaps in 9 games in 2023, before being released mid-season when he was unhappy with his role. With Leonard playing a smaller role and then getting released, Zaire Franklin led this group with 1,090 snaps played in 2023, while EJ Speed played 730 snaps on the season and saw his playing time increase when Leonard was gone (373 snaps in his final six games), and Ronnie Harrison played 234 snaps in seven games after being signed from the practice squad mid-season to replace Leonard.

Franklin also played 1,136 snaps in 2022, but he has PFF grades of just 57.0 and 60.9 in those past two seasons, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player. A 2018 7th round pick, Franklin played sparingly in his first four seasons in the league (465 snaps) before becoming a starter and, now in his age 28 season, I would expect him to continue being a decent, but unspectacular every down player. Speed, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and didn’t see a lot of playing time in his first four seasons before last season (497 snaps), but he flashed potential with a 78.4 PFF grade on 316 snaps in 2022 and had a decent 65.0 grade in his expanded role in 2023, struggling in coverage, but playing he run well. Speed has always played the run much better than the pass, which is a concern because he’ll probably continue having an expanded role in 2024 and have to cover more often, but he should at least be a decent starter overall.

Harrison will continue being the third linebacker, playing primarily in base packages, the same role as he had down the stretch last season. Originally a safety before changing positions last season, Harrison was mostly decent in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, but the 2018 3rd round pick had trouble staying consistently healthy, missing 15 games in those five seasons, with missed time in all five seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. This should remain a decent, but unspectacular linebacking corps this season.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback was another big need position for the Colts that they could have addressed early in the draft. Instead, they didn’t address it until the 5th and 6th rounds, when they took Jaylin Simpson and Micah Abraham, who will only be deep reserves as rookies. Without significant additions to this group this off-season, the Colts will hope for better health at this position than a year ago, but even if they are healthier, they could still have issues. Kenny Moore, JuJu Brents, and Dallis Flowers started last season as the Colts’ top-3 cornerbacks, but Brents was limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and Flowers was limited to 304 snaps in 4 games.

Brents was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 63.2 PFF grade in his injury-shortened rookie season, so he has the upside to take a step forward and become at least a solid starter in his second season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that we have only seen a small sample size from him. Flowers, meanwhile, also had a decent 66.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season, but that’s an even smaller sample size and Flowers went undrafted in 2022 and struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 175 snaps as a rookie, so he’s highly unproven.

With Brents and Flowers missing time last season Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker played 788 snaps and 469 snaps respectively, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 51.8. That’s not surprising, given that Jones was a 7th round rookie, while Baker is a 2022 undrafted free agent who hadn’t played a defensive snap prior to last season. Both remain on the roster for now, but with Brents and Flowers expected to be healthier and Simpson and Abraham added late in the draft, neither Jones nor Baker are guaranteed a roster spot in 2024.

Fortunately, the Colts got a good season out of top cornerback Kenny Moore, as the veteran had a 77.4 PFF grade on 1,089 snaps in 16 games. Moore has a recent history of injuries and inconsistency though. In fact, his 2023 PFF grade was the highest of his seven seasons in the league. Moore has surpassed 70 on PFF three other times, but prior to last season, the most recent instance was in 2020, as he fell to a 66.6 PFF grade in 2021 and fell even further to 55.7 in an injury plagued 2022 season, when he was limited to 774 snaps in 12 games. Brought back on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, Moore could continue playing at a high level in 2024, still only in his age 29 season, but chances are he’ll regress a little bit.

At safety, the Colts re-signed 2020 3rd round pick Julian Blackmon to a 1-year, 3.7 million dollar deal after he had a career best 68.3 PFF grade last season. Blackmon has always had talent, exceeding 60 on PFF on all four seasons in the league, and he is still only going into his age 26 season, but injuries have been a problem for him for most of his career, as he’s missed 17 games in four seasons in the league, even missing two last season in the most impressive full season of his career. He could continue being a solid starter in 2024 and potentially has the upside to be even better, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury.

At the other safety spot, Rodney Thomas, who started most of last season, will compete with Nick Cross, who took over a bigger role down the stretch. Both were drafted in 2022, but they’re very different players. Thomas went in the 7th round and is already heading into his age 26 season, so he probably doesn’t have much untapped upside, and he’s struggled with PFF grades of 54.3 and 58.2 on snap counts of 720 and 962 in two seasons in the league. 

Cross, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and is only going into his age 23 season, so he could have a lot of untapped upside, and he flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade on 292 snaps last season, after struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in limited action (122 snaps) as a rookie. Cross seems like the better starting option, but he’s still very unproven. Without any major additions to this group this off-season, the Colts figure to have an underwhelming secondary again in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Colts have a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 season because of the wide range of potential outcomes from their talented, but inexperienced starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts weren’t quite as good as their 9-8 record last season and aren’t really much better overall this season, so if Richardson isn’t better than Gardner Minshew was a year ago, or if he’s worse than Minshew was, the Colts won’t have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot. However, if Richardson can be an upgrade over Minshew, the Colts have enough talent on the rest of this roster than they should be able to take a step forward and be a playoff team. I would say odds are against them qualifying for the playoffs in the loaded AFC, but that is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Update: The Colts’ chances of being playoff contenders in the loaded AFC took a big hit when they lost Samson Ebukam for the season with injury. Unless they get an unexpectedly big year from Anthony Richardson, I would expect the Colts to have a losing record.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South

Quarterback

For years, the Colts had consistent high level quarterback play. They selected Peyton Manning #1 overall in 1998 and he started every game through 2010, before a 2011 neck injury knocked him out for the year, tanking the Colts and allowing them to select Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in 2012, giving the Colts arguably the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck started every game in his first three seasons in the league and the Colts seemed set for the future. However, Luck then missed 26 games with injury over the next four seasons combined, leading to Luck’s early retirement following the 2018 season. 

Since then, the Colts have had one of the most in flux quarterback positions in the league. Backup Jacoby Brissett took over for Luck in 2019, but he was mediocre and was upgraded with Philip Rivers, who the Colts signed for the 2020 season. Rivers wasn’t bad and led the Colts to the playoffs, but they lost in the first round and Rivers retired after the season. That left the Colts to trade for Carson Wentz as a potential long-term quarterback option, but he was mediocre in his first season with the Colts in 2021 and ended up getting traded and replaced by another veteran Matt Ryan.

At first glance, the move to replace Wentz with Ryan seemed like a good one. The Colts received two third round picks from Washington in exchange for Wentz and only had to send one third rounder to the Falcons to acquire Ryan, a much more consistent option who actually had a cheaper salary. The one downside with Ryan was his age, which proved to be a big problem, as Ryan dropped off quickly in what was his age 37 season. Wentz didn’t have a better year with Washington so the Colts still made the right decision to move on from him, but Ryan struggled for most of the year and was benched on several occasions. In total, he completed 67.0% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a 83.9 QB rating that was his lowest since his second season in the league in 2009.

As much as Ryan struggled, he was actually the Colts best quarterback option by far last season, as the quarterbacks he was benched for, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles, finished the year with QB ratings of 76.1 and 34.3 respectively and went 0-5 in their five starts, as opposed to 4-7-1 for Ryan. However, even with him being the best quarterback on their roster, the Colts couldn’t justify bringing back Matt Ryan at a 29.25 million dollar salary for 2023, cutting him this off-season to get out of the 17.25 million non-guaranteed portion of that salary. 

Foles was not retained this off-season, while Ehlinger is expected to be no higher than the third quarterback. The Colts’ disastrous 4-12-1 season last year got them the 4th overall pick, which they used on Florida’s Anthony Richardson to be their quarterback of the future, and they also signed veteran Gardner Minshew in free agency, who can either be a high end backup or a low end stopgap starter if Richardson isn’t ready to start at the beginning of the season.

There’s a good chance that Richardson not being ready to start week one proves to be the case. Richardson comes into the league with a massive upside, with a huge arm and unparalleled athletic ability for his size, but he was underwhelming in his lone season as a college starter and is incredibly raw, especially as a passer. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has been decent as a starter in his career, with a 93.1 QB rating in 24 starts in four seasons in the league, so it won’t be easy for Richardson to beat him out. Richardson will be given every chance to win the job and, even if Minshew wins the job for week one, he likely won’t keep it for long, but Richardson is more likely than not to struggle when he does eventually get into the starting lineup. Even if he develops into a high level quarterback long-term, there are likely to be a lot of growing pains in year one.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to poor quarterback play, part of the reason for the Colts’ disappointing 2022 season was injuries. They had the 7th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, but those injuries seemed to disproportionately affect their most important players. On offense, the big injury was Jonathan Taylor, who was the best running back in the league in 2021, rushing for a leading league 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC), but who was limited to just 4.48 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries last season in an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games and was limited in several others.

Running backs suffer injuries more than any other position and it’s very uncommon for running backs to ever repeat the kind of season Taylor had in 2021, but the 2020 2nd round pick also rushed for 5.04 YPC and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries as a rookie and, only going into his age 24 season, he has a great chance to bounce back and be one of the best running backs in the league again in 2023, even if he’s unlikely to be as dominant as he was in 2021 again. In Taylor’s absence last season, Zack Moss and Deon Johnson were the Colts’ primary running backs, ranking 2nd and 3rd on the team with 76 carries and 68 carries respectively. Both players will return to the team for 2023 and Northwestern’s Evan Hull was added in the 5th round of the draft. 

Moss was the better of the two backs last season, averaging 4.80 YPC to Jackson’s 3.47, and by the end of the season he cemented himself as a true lead back, with 69 of his carries in the final four games of the season. Moss had never shown much in his career prior to being acquired by the Colts mid-season in a trade last season, averaging just 4.08 YPC on 225 carries in two and a half seasons in the league, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and could remain at least a solid #2 running back option, especially if he only has to see a few carries per game behind a healthy Jonathan Taylor. 

Jackson was a much less effective runner, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career, but he did average 1.47 yards per route run, while Moss averaged 0.22 yards per route run and has just a 0.78 yards per route run average for his career, so he has a good chance to earn a role as a passing down back. Jonathan Taylor isn’t a great receiver, with a 1.05 yards per route run average for his career, so they’ll probably want to spell him on some passing down snaps to keep him fresh, which creates a role for Jackson. If he’s healthy, Taylor should be among the league leaders in carries and rushing yards and the Colts have decent depth options as well.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line used to be a strength of the team, with a starting five that was one of the best of the league and that stayed together for years. However, left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired after the 2020 season, while right guard Matt Glowinski left as a free agent following the 2021 season, leaving their offensive line in much worse shape for 2022. Rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann was pretty solid in 11 starts in year one (73.3 PFF grade) and he has a good chance to keep that up in year two in 2023, but they really struggled to replace Glowinski last season.

Will Fries (9 starts) and Danny Pinter (3 starts) had PFF grades of just 58.4 and 44.7 respectively and their only even average starting right guard was Braden Smith, the talented right tackle who the Colts kicked inside for a couple starts. Smith is a versatile player, but he is more valuable at right tackle and his replacement at right tackle was Matt Pryor, who made 9 starts total last season and finished with a 44.9 PFF grade. The Colts also didn’t do anything to upgrade the right guard position this off-season, leaving Fries and Pinter in competition for the role, assuming Smith stays outside.

Fries and Pinter were drafted in the 7th round in 2021 and the 5th round in 2020 respectively and made 0 and 4 career starts respectively prior to last season, so it’s unlikely either one suddenly breaks out as even an average starter. The Colts did add BYU offensive tackle Blake Freeland in the 4th round of the draft and he could be an upgrade over Matt Pryor, who is no longer with the team, but he would likely struggle if forced into action at right tackle, in the case that Braden Smith moves back to guard. Smith has received grades of 73.3, 79.8, 80.1, 80.6, and 75.5 from PFF in the five seasons of his career respectively, since going in the 2nd round in 2018, and he’ll play at a high level regardless of where he plays, but he’s more valuable at right tackle. Regardless of where he plays, the Colts figure to continue having at least one hole in the starting lineup.

Another problem for the Colts on the offensive line last season was a substandard year from left guard Quenton Nelson. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades of 81.6, 91.2, and 87.5 in his first three seasons in the league, but that fell to 69.1 in an injury plagued 2021 season and didn’t improve in a healthier 2022, when he had a career worst 68.4 PFF grade. Nelson is only in his age 27 season and is theoretically still in the prime of his career, but he hasn’t shown his top form in two seasons and at this point it might be unrealistic to expect him to bounce all the way back in 2023. I would expect him to be better in 2023 than he was in 2021 and 2022, but not as good as he used to be.

Ryan Kelly also hasn’t shown his top form in a few seasons, as the 2016 first round pick surpassed a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but has followed those grades up with 68.0, 56.9, and 64.3 over the past three seasons. Kelly now goes into his age 30 season and he’s pretty banged up in his career, missing 17 games in 7 seasons in the league, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him. 

Kelly should still remain at least a capable starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further and he probably doesn’t have a huge upside at this stage of his career. This offensive line isn’t what it used to be and it will have at least one big position of weakness on the right side, but it’s not a bad offensive line either and they could be better than a year ago if they get a bounce back year from Nelson and if the young left tackle Raimann continues his above average play into year two.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ receiving corps was also a problem last season, although that was not a surprise, as their receiving corps were a problem the year before as well. Michael Pittman remained as the #1 receiver and the 2020 2nd round pick has posted slash lines of 88/1082/6 and 99/925/4 respectively in that role over the past two seasons, but those have come on target totals of 129 (16th in the NFL) and 141 (12th in the NFL). Quarterback play has been part of the problem and Pittman is a talented player who is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s probably more of a high end #2 receiver than someone who is a true #1, as evidenced by his poor efficiency in that role over the past two seasons.

Unfortunately, Pittman will have to remain the #1 receiver for lack of a better option, with the Colts not doing anything to significantly improve this group this off-season. In fact, the Colts actually lost their #2 receiver from a year ago Parris Campbell, who was decent if unspectacular with a 63/623/3 slash line on 91 targets. The Colts won’t miss Campbell too much though, as they have 2022 2nd round pick Alec Pierce in line for a bigger role in year two and they also signed veteran Isaiah McKenzie and used a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Josh Downs to compete for the #3 receiver job.

Pierce was the #3 receiver last year (41/593/2 on 78 targets) and he was mediocre with a 1.24 yards per route run average, but he has the talent to be better in a bigger role in year two, although that’s not a guarantee. McKenzie, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a return man and a situational depth receiver (his 42/423/4 slash line last year was a career high), but he has a decent 1.31 yards per route run average over the past three seasons combined (0.99 over his first three seasons combined). The Colts are probably hoping the rookie Downs can beat the veteran McKenzie out for the 3rd receiver job, but Downs could be overmatched in year one and McKenzie figures to at least have somewhat of a role for this team even if he doesn’t end up beating out Downs.

The Colts also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season. Mo Alie-Cox (584 snaps), Kylen Granson (407 snaps), and Jelani Woods (333 snaps) all saw action, but none were that productive, finishing with slash lines of 19/189/3, 31/302/0, and 25/312/3 respectively. The Colts didn’t add to this group this off-season, so they will be counting on getting more out of these three in 2023. Alie-Cox has never been much more than a blocking specialist, averaging a decent 1.32 yards per route run in limited passing game action, but not surpassing a 31/394/2 slash line in any of his six seasons in the league, and, now going into his age 30 season, it’s very unlikely he has any untapped potential, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, at best.

Granson was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has averages of just 1.13 yards per route run and 1.31 yards per route run thus far in his career and, while he could have further untapped potential, he’s unlikely to ever break out as a starting caliber tight end. Woods has by far the most upside of the bunch, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of potential with an impressive 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie. 

Woods struggled as a blocker and will probably need to improve in that aspect to become a true starter for this team, but, at the very least, he should get more pass game opportunities in year two, after proving his upside in year one. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a mini breakout year in the first extended playing time of his career. He’s one of a couple promising young pass catchers the Colts have, but they’re still unlikely to be significantly better in the receiving corps than they were a year ago, meaning this is likely to remain a position of weakness overall.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

While the Colts’ offense was a huge problem in 2022, finishing dead last in offensive DVOA, their defense was actually not bad, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA. The strength of this defense was probably their interior defenders, led by arguably their best defensive player, DeForest Buckner. A first round pick in 2016, Buckner quickly developed into one of the best players in the league with the 49ers, posting grades of 71.6, 81.3, 79.3, and 78.8 in his first four seasons in the league respectively. 

Unable to keep all of their talented players long-term, the 49ers sent Buckner to the Colts for a first round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Colts also gave Buckner a 4-year, 84 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, which makes him still the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league, so they paid a steep price for him in total, between the extension and the draft compensation that they sent to the 49ers, but it’s probably been worth it, as Buckner has continued his high level play with the Colts, posting grades of 89.7, 71.9, and 82.3 over the past three seasons respectively

Buckner is also still only in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect any significant drop off yet. 

He isn’t bad against the run, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 53 sacks, 95 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate for his career, including 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate last season. He’s also remarkably durable, missing just two games in 7 years in the league, despite playing an average of 53.6 snaps per game as a true every down defensive lineman. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Their other starting interior defender Grover Stewart isn’t as good as Buckner, but he’s an above average starter in his own right. 

The 6-4 315 pound Stewart is at his best against the run, earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense in all six seasons in the league, but the 2017 4th round pick has developed into an every down player and a decent pass rusher as well, averaging 667 snaps per season over the past four seasons, while not missing a game due to injury and totaling 8.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over that stretch. Overall, he’s received grades from PFF of 65.8, 68.1, 72.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season and should start to decline soon, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and could easily remain a solid starter for at least another season. He’s an unspectacular player, but his run defense makes him a good complement to Buckner, who is a dominant pass rusher.

Depth isn’t as important to the Colts in this position group because Buckner and Stewart play every down and rarely get hurt, but the Colts still did well to improve their depth this off-season, after Eric Johnson (47.4 PFF grade in 127 snaps) and Byron Cowart (30.4 PFF grade in 229 snaps) struggled mightily in that role last season. Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore was added in the 4th round of the draft and, while he’s probably too raw to make a big impact as a rookie, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as a reserve. 

The Colts also added veteran Taven Bryan in free agency and, while he has been middling at best on an average of 447 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, he should be a good depth option for this team in a rotational role. Eric Johnson is also still on the roster and the 2022 5th round pick could be better in year two, but he won’t be guaranteed a role in what is a deeper position group than a year ago. This is a strong position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Colts leader in sacks a year ago was edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who had 9.5, along with 11 quarterback hits and a 10.1% pressure rate. Ngakoue is no longer with the team, but, despite his production, he won’t really be missed, as Ngakoue struggled so much against the run last season that he actually ended up with a 51.4 PFF grade overall, despite his pass rush production. Ngakoue remains unsigned as of this writing, suggesting the rest of the league isn’t fooled by his sack total either.

Ngakoue’s replacement Samson Ebukam is an underwhelming player, but he’s a better all around player and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ngakoue if he plays like he has the past two seasons, receiving PFF grades of 66.8 and 69.1 on snap counts of 554 and 559 respectively, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over the two seasons combined. The 2017 4th round is an unspectacular option who has never finished with a PFF grade higher than last season’s 69.1 for a season, but he’s only once been below 63 for a season, so he’s a consistently decent option.

Ebukam might not play the 733 snaps in 15 games that Ngakoue played last season, but Ngakoue was overall a liability across those snaps and the Colts could get more out of the rest of their edge defenders, even if it’s the same group as a year ago. Kwity Paye is a third year player who could easily have the best year of his career if he can stay healthy. The 2021 1st round pick has been solid if unspectacular thus far through two seasons in his career, posting PFF grades of 69.6 in both seasons, but missing seven games between the two seasons. He still has the upside to be better going forward and, even if he isn’t, the Colts would still benefit from having him on the field more, after he was limited to 547 snaps in 12 games last season.

Dayo Odeyingbo is another third year player who could take a step forward in 2023. A second round pick who could have gone in the first if not for injuries, Odeyingbo didn’t play much in an injury plagued rookie season, seeing just 173 snaps, but that increased to 519 last season as he stayed healthy for all 17 games. Odeyingbo has been solid if unspectacular thus far in his career, posting grades of 61.4 and 62.6, but he has the potential to be better in his third season in the league in 2023, along with Paye.

The Colts also could get a healthier year out of reserve edge defender Tyquan Lewis, after he was limited to 273 snaps in 7 games last season, although based on his history of injuries, that’s not a guarantee, as Lewis has missed at least 7 games in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, missing 34 total. Lewis was a 2nd round pick back in 2018, but, in part due to injuries, he’s never developed into even a solid rotational player, posting grades higher than 60 on PFF in just two seasons in his career, with a 56.3 PFF grade in 2022. Even if he’s healthier in 2023, he’s unlikely to make a huge impact in a positive way. 

One thing Lewis does bring to the table is versatility, as the 6-3 277 pounder has the size to line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, but he’s an unspectacular player regardless of where he lines up. This isn’t a bad position group and they could easily be better than a year ago with Paye and Odeyingbo going into their third seasons in the league, with Ebukam replacing Ngakoue, and with Lewis possibly being healthier, but this group also lacks a high upside and doesn’t have any high end players.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts had four defensive players play more than 500 snaps and finish with a grade higher than 70 on PFF last season and three of them left this off-season (DeForest Buckner is the exception), but, despite that, the Colts have a good chance to remain a decent defense in 2023. The biggest reason for that is the expected return of every down linebacker Shaq Leonard, who missed all but 74 mediocre snaps in an injury plagued 2022 season and whose return could offset the absence of other key players who departed this off-season.

That’s because Leonard is one of the best players in the league at his position when healthy, finishing 6th, 7th, 10th, and 7th among off ball linebackers on PFF in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while posting grades of 81.6, 78.7, 72.6, and 79.0 respectively. Leonard is coming off of a major injury, but he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he’s still theoretically in his prime and, if healthy, he has a great chance to bounce back at least close to his old form, which would be a huge boost for this defense.

Leonard’s return will be especially important to this defense because one of the key players the Colts lost this off-season was linebacker Bobby Okereke, who had a 73.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in Leonard’s absence last season, before signing with the Giants this off-season. Okereke being gone means the Colts will continue giving a significant role to Zaire Franklin, even with Leonard back. Franklin actually led this position group with 1,136 snaps played last season, coming off the field on defense just five times all season, but he posted a mediocre 57.0 PFF grade in the first extended action of his career and the 2018 7th round pick is likely to be mediocre again in a significant role in 2023.

The Colts also could give a bigger role to EJ Speed this season, after re-signing him to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to keep him out of free agency this off-season. Speed was just a 5th round pick by the Colts in 2019 and he played just 181 snaps in his first three seasons in the league combined, but he played 316 snaps in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential, even if in very limited action, finishing with a 78.4 PFF grade. 

Speed is still unproven and a projection to a larger role and he probably wouldn’t be that efficient again if given more playing time, but his contract suggests the Colts at least expect him to have somewhat of a role, even as just the 3rd linebacker behind Leonard and Franklin. This is a strong group led by Shaq Leonard, who is one of the best off ball linebackers in the league when healthy and whose return should more than make up for the loss of Bobby Okereke, but the rest of this group is still uncertain, with Franklin being a mediocre option and Speed still being highly inexperienced.

Grade: A-

Secondary

One of the key players the Colts lost on defense this off-season is safety Rodney McLeod, who finished the 2022 season with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,034 snaps. That performance kind of came out of nowhere though, as it was a career best grade for the 11-year veteran and, with McLeod now going into his age 33 season, it was understandable they moved on from him this off-season, but he’ll still be missed. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas will likely be the two starting safeties in 2023 with McLeod gone and both saw significant action (720 snaps each) last season with the Colts frequently using three safeties in sub packages, but Blackmon was middling with a 62.3 PFF grade, while Thomas struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade, so it’s unlikely that either one is as good in 2023 as McLeod was in 2022.

Blackmon was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has made 31 starts in three seasons in the league, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 60.8, 60.7, and 62.3, and durability has been an issue for him, costing him 15 games in three seasons in the league. He theoretically has the upside to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could easily miss more time with injury even if he does take a step forward. Thomas, meanwhile, was just a 7th round rookie in 2022, so his struggles were predictable and he could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could face competition for his job from fellow second year player, Nick Cross. 

Cross was a higher draft pick, selected in the third round, and could have more upside than Thomas long-term as a result, but he played just 122 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, spending most of the year behind the much lower drafted Thomas on the depth chart, so he’s far from a guarantee to be an upgrade even if he does win the starting job. The Colts also added California’s Daniel Scott in the 5th round of this year’s draft, but he will almost definitely spend his rookie year as a reserve barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Stephon Gilmore is also a big loss from this defense in 2022, as he finished the year with a 79.1 PFF grade on 1,064 snaps as the Colts’ top cornerback. Gilmore was owed 10 million for his age 33 season in 2023, so it made sense for the Colts, who are in something of a rebuild, to move on from him this off-season, but they only got a 5th round pick from the Cowboys in return for him and they will definitely miss him in the short-term. 

In Gilmore’s absence, the Colts will hope that 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers can continue his impressive play in limited action from the past two seasons into an every down starting role, after earning a 70.7 PFF grade on 525 snaps in 2021 and a 82.1 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 2022. He’s a projection to that larger role and probably won’t be as efficient as an every down player as he was as a part-time player, but he could still easily be an above average starting option for them. The Colts also added Kansas State’s Julius Brents in the second round of the draft to help them replace Gilmore and he figures to have a significant role in year one, at least playing in sub packages with Rodgers and veteran Kenny Moore. 

Moore used to be an above average starter, earning PFF grades of 71.3, 75.5, and 74.8 on 911 snaps, 631 snaps, and 952 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, he’s fallen off in a big way with grades of 66.6 and 55.7 respectively on snap counts of 1,062 and 774 over the past two seasons. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he isn’t totally over the hill, but after two down years, it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point. That doesn’t mean he can’t be better in 2023 than he was in 2022, which was a career worst year, in part due to injuries, but he is unlikely to be more than an average starter in 2023. This secondary isn’t bad, but it will be very hard for them to be as good as a year ago without Stephon Gilmore and Rodney McLeod.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

By default, the Colts should be better on offense this year than they were a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball and they will be quarterbacked by the very raw Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, their defense lost a few key players in free agency this off-season and, while Shaq Leonard is expected back from injury, they are pretty top heavy on defense behind Leonard and Buckner and would be in trouble on that side of the ball if they lost either one to injury for an extended period of time. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South