Colts

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Tennessee Titans (4-8) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Last week, I bet against the Colts because I felt they were an overrated team and the Lions were an underrated team. I felt the Colts were overrated because they’ve had a very easy schedule and they’ve actually had a -43 points differential despite their then 7-4 record. They’ve won just 1 game by more than a touchdown, but they’ve lost 3 by more than 20. The Lions were the exact opposite, as their points differential of -13 was much better than their then 4-7 record and they also had the much tougher schedule.

The Colts were 7-4, because of a 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out over time. That’s what Pythagorean Expectation is based on. Teams who win a game by a touchdown or less will win their next game just 52% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t feel, with a few exceptions, that certain teams are good or bad in close games. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won close games so consistently in their career that they have to be exceptions and Matt Ryan might be on the verge of joining them, but I’m not ready to put the rookie Luck in that group.

Well what happened? The pick was working out pretty well for a while. The Lions led by 12 with about 3 minutes left. The Colts got one touchdown and they were able to get the ball back and score another one to pull off a miraculous comeback, winning 35-33 on the final play of the game and destroying what looked like at least a push (Detroit -5). The real line for that game, based on points per drive, was at Detroit -9 and the public action was still on Indianapolis. In spite of that, the line was climbing. Everything about it seemed like a trap line, but the Colts still busted it.

I’m still not really willing to admit that Luck is in that Manning/Brady group, but even if he is, even if he has some sort of special ability to win close games, I really like the Titans here as dogs of more than 4. There are other reasons why, which I’ll get into later, but at the very least, I don’t have to worry about any sort of Luck magic throwing this one off. The Colts have 3 wins by more than 4 points all season. One was in overtime, one was on the strength of a special teams touchdown (7 points), and the other one was against the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars. Only that 7 point win against the Bills was a home game. They can win yet another close game and I can still win against the spread.

We are actually getting some line value with the Colts. I like to use net points per drive to compute real line. Net points per drive is offensive points per drive minus offensive points allowed per drive and it grades teams on a per drive basis. You can take the difference between the two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage.

This suggests that the Colts should be 8 point favorites. While the Colts’ points differential is much worse than their record, the same can also be said about the Titans, though to a lesser extent. The Titans are 4-8, which isn’t great, but not as bad as their -111 points differential, which is the 4th worst in the league, only ahead of Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland. The Titans have a whopping 5 losses by 21 or more this season, and only one win by more than a field goal. The Colts haven’t really been blowing teams out, but the Titans have been getting blown out by almost everyone. That’s one of the concerns I have with the Titans.

However, that 8 point line doesn’t hold up to DVOA. I like to look at DVOA to compare because it is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things, including strength of schedule. The Colts rank 28th in DVOA (27th in weighted) and the Titans rank 29th. This makes sense as the Colts are playing a last place schedule, while the Titans are playing a 2nd place schedule. The Colts have also yet to face Houston, who Tennessee has played twice.

The Colts are 23rd in net points per drive to Tennessee’s 29th, but it doesn’t look like that 8 point real line holds up against DVOA. In fact, since these teams are right next to each other in those rankings, the 5.5 point favorites the Colts actually are might even be too high. It’s interesting to note that the public is predictably pounding the Colts, but the line has dropped from -6 to -5.5 and is even at -5 in some places. Not only do I like to fade the public whenever I see it fit, as the public always loses money in the long run, this one looks like it has trap line written all over it. The odds makers want people to bet on the Colts, possibly because they also feel they’re an overrated team and you never really want to do what the odds makers want you to. There’s a reason they’re rich.

Aside from the line stuff, there are other reasons with the Titans are the play this week. When these teams played earlier this season, the Colts pulled the upset as road dogs in Tennessee, winning in overtime by 6 (one of their 3 wins by 4 or more that I mentioned earlier). Well, that actually helps the Titans this week. Teams are 51-25 ATS as road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites since 2002.

This is probably because it’s so tough to sweep a season series, especially when two teams have comparable talent levels, which is often the case between teams who alternate dogs/favorites depending on the home team in their two matchups. It might sound weird to say these teams have similar talents levels, but everything I mentioned earlier would suggest that they might be more similar talent wise than you’d think.

Meanwhile, the Titans are dogs before being favorites as they host the lowly Jets next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons as teams tend to be extra focused as dogs with no distractions on the horizon. That trend gets even more powerful when the favorite in the matchup will next be dogs, as the Colts will be next week, when they go to Houston. Dogs are 114-57 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Going off that, divisional home favorites are 15-47 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002, including a ridiculous 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. This game simply means different things for these two teams. For the Colts, it’s a chance to catch their breath between a tough comeback and before heading to play the biggest game of their season in Houston. For the Titans, this is by far the biggest game of their season left and a big divisional revenge game. Besides, that 4-26 ATS trend is very, very hard to ignore. Add in that Indianapolis is overrated and that this may be a trap line and the Titans are one of my 3 co-picks of the week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (80% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 15 IND 11

Final thoughts: This line has dropped to -4.5 and -4 in most places. This has trap line written all over it. I’m glad I got this at +5.5. I can’t add any more units for that reason, but this might be my favorite play of the week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 8-4

Net points per drive:  -0.34 (23rd)

DVOA: -19.6% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -19.2% (27th)

Studs

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

SS Antoine Bethea: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops

FS Joe Lefeged: Was not thrown on, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Pat McAfee: 5 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 73.4 yards per kickoff, 17.8 opponents average starting distance, 8 punts for 400 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 39 yards, 45.1 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Andrew Luck: 24 of 54 for 391 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, 3 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 spikes, 3 drops, 61.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 23 of 59 drop backs (2 sacks, 8 of 21, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 hit as thrown)

C Samson Satele: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 61 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 5 attempts

LG Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RT Winston Justice: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 61 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LE Cory Redding: 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

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Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Lions

Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

The Lions are in a bad spot and normally this is the type of team I like to stay away from. They are favorites after a loss as dogs and will next be dogs. Last week, they lost to the Texans and next week they have to go to Green Bay. That’s called a sandwich game. Teams tend to take it easy in the middle part of that 3 game stretch because they are coming off a tough loss and have another tough game next on the schedule, with an easier game in the middle. Teams are 59-83 ATS in this spot since 2008.

It especially hurts that this game is a non-conference matchup and that their next game is against a divisional opponent, especially since a hated divisional opponent like the Packers. Non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs are 32-61 ATS since 2002 and teams have tended to struggle before playing the Packers over the past 2 years anyway. In the last 2 seasons, teams are 9-18 ATS before playing the Packers.

The Colts, meanwhile, will be extra focused. They are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 97-57 ATS in over the last 2 seasons. When you combine that with the sandwich game trend, you find out that teams are 111-57 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. Yes, the Colts have a divisional matchup next, but because they are dogs as they will next be favorites, it won’t matter much. Since 2002, non-conference dogs are 67-44 ATS before being divisional favorites. It seems to matter more that the Lions have a divisional game next. If we go to back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 33-19 ATS as non-conference dogs before being divisional favorites when their opponent will next be divisional dogs.

However, all this does assume that the Lions will take the Colts lightly and they could easily not. Yes, they are in a bad spot, but the Colts aren’t some scrubs. They are 7-4 and isn’t pretty hard to overlook a 7-4 team. The Lions, meanwhile, are 4-7 so while they may technically be favorites, they might not act like favorites on the field because their opponents have 3 more wins than them. In fact, if you look at history, teams are 72-61 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who has 3+ more wins than them. That’s not strong enough to be considered a trend, but it’s worth noting.

That asks the question, if Detroit has 3 fewer wins than Indianapolis, why are they favorites here and why favorites by 5 whole points? This is just the 20th time since 1989 that a team has been favored by 5 or more points against a team with 3+ more wins than them (they are 11-8 ATS, which is also worth noting). The public seems to be asking that question an awful lot this week because there’s a pretty strong public lean on the Colts, which is rare with dogs.

The answer is, I believe, that the Colts are not as good as their record would suggest and the Lions are better than their record would suggest. Using the net points per drive method of computing line value, this line should actually be Detroit -9. That might not make sense at first, but it will once you know that Detroit is actually -13 in points differential this year and Indianapolis, despite their record, is -43.

This method of computing line value doesn’t take into account things like special teams and strength of schedule, but DVOA does, so we can look at that to confirm what net points per drive tells us (DVOA is a formula based heavily on net points per drive, which takes into account strength of schedule and other things). In DVOA, Detroit ranks 11th in both regular and weighted (weighted weights more recent games heavier), while Indianapolis ranks 28th and 27th respectively.

In net points per drive, Detroit ranks 13th, while Indianapolis ranks 23th, so the gap is even bigger when we take into account schedule, which makes sense. Indianapolis plays in the easier conference in one of the easiest divisions in football and is playing a last place schedule (and has yet to face the toughest team in their division, Houston, at all). Detroit, meanwhile, plays in the tougher NFC in arguably the toughest division in football and is playing a 2nd place schedule. The NFC, by the way, is 27-19 against the AFC this season, which is why I say they have the tougher conference.

The reason Indianapolis has such a poor points differential in comparison to their record is that they’ve been blown out on several occasions and they only have one win by more than a touchdown. Their biggest win was by 17, while they’ve lost games by 20, 26, and 25. They are 7-4 because they are 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but that’s unsustainable.

Teams who win a game by a touchdown or less win their next game 52% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. Most of the time, there’s less skill involved specifically in winning close games than you think (there is skill involved in outplaying opponents, but not in consistently winning close games). The exception is teams with elite quarterbacks and I don’t think Andrew Luck is there yet. Detroit, meanwhile, hasn’t lost a single game by more than 10 all season.

The notable thing about the Colts’ 3 blowout losses is that they were all on the road. They really haven’t been a good road team this season. They are 5-1 at home, but only 2-3 on the road with 2 wins against crappy Jacksonville and crappy Tennessee, along with those 3 losses. They’re just 1-3 ATS as road dogs. They got blown out by the Jets on the road. That’s ridiculous! Andrew Luck’s home/road splits are very notable. His completion percentage and YPA is the same pretty much both home and away, but at home, he has 9 touchdowns to 3 picks and on the road, he has 4 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, which is perfectly understandable for a rookie.

Now that we’ve established that this line not only makes sense, but might actually be too low, it’s time to talk about line movement. This line actually opened at -3.5, but it’s now -5, despite action being on Indianapolis. This is what’s called reverse line movement and it’s often the sign of a trap line. It’s rare that you’ll see a trap line that wants more action on the dog, but this is a pretty rare case where we’re actually getting a ton of line value with the favorite.

Besides, I love fading the public, especially when they back a dog. The odds makers always make money in the long run so siding with them (and against the public) isn’t a bad idea, especially when the public is backing a dog. Odds makers want two things, to make money and for favorites and dogs to cover evenly (so the public can’t key in on just one). The public rarely backs a dog, but when they do, it’s a risky bet and that’s even in cases where it’s not a trap line. This is a special case.

I wish the Lions were in a better situation trends wise, but it’s definitely possible they won’t overlook their opponent just because their opponent has such a good record. The Lions do have a few things going for them trends wise. Home favorites are 9-4 ATS since 1989 off back-to-back losses at home. Meanwhile, home teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 off back-to-back losses as home dogs, including 3-2 ATS as favorites. They’re also rested off a Thursday game, as teams are 117-97 ATS on a Sunday after a Thursday game since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 26-10 ATS since 2002 off a loss at home in overtime, excluding road dogs. It’s a medium sized play on the Lions, who should be the right side in this one. Detroit is also my survivor pick in a super shitty week for survivor plays.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: IND 16 DET 14

Final update: No change. Like the Jets’ line, this line has gone up to -6 in some places, which could bring the six and six rule into play. However, I still like the Lions for a big play. The line going up to 6 means we have opposite line movement because the public is on Indianapolis. Maybe this game will be decided by exactly 6. Maybe this will be an exception to the rule. I really feel like Detroit covers here and I like getting them at lower than 6. At 6 or more, it probably wouldn’t be a big play.

Detroit Lions 31 Indianapolis Colts 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL, DEN)

Pick against spread: Detroit -5 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 9 (-3)

Record: 7-4

Net points per drive: -0.4 (23rd)

DVOA: -22.0% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -22.1% (27th)

Tier 4: Young teams that could make the playoffs, but won’t do much once they get there

Studs

LT Anthony Castonzo: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 3 attempts

WR Reggie Wayne: Caught 8 passes for 102 yards on 14 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 3.1 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Jerrell Freeman: 13 solo tackles, 8 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 sack on 2 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 10 yards on 4 attempts

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

LOLB Robert Mathis: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Pat McAfee: 5 punts for 256 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 24 yards, 46.4 net yards per punt, 4 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 70.8 yards per kickoff, 23.0 opponent’s average starting distance

WR TY Hilton: 4 punt returns for 111 yards and a touchdown, caught 3 passes for 33 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 0.7 YAC per catch

Duds

RB Vick Ballard: Rushed for 41 yards (30 after contact) on 13 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt, 1 drop

C Samson Satele: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 4 attempts

RT Winston Justice: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hit on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Donnie Avery: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards on 7 attempts on 46 pass block snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch, 2 drops

NT Antonio Johnson: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 penalty

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Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Colts

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against the Titans, home dogs for Miami, 3.5 road favorites for Jacksonville, and then as a 6-3 team they were 9 point dogs in New England last week.

They’ve had some games in there where they didn’t cover, but given how well they’ve played, those lines look pretty ridiculous and not just in hindsight. The only time in there I didn’t bet on them was as 3.5 point road favorites in Jacksonville (what seemed like a reasonable line) and they have covered 6 out of 9 lines, including 4 straight (all wins) before running into red hot New England last week.

This week, they continue to be underrated as they are just 3 point home favorites for the Bills, which suggests that these two teams are equal (3 points for home field advantage). I just don’t think that’s true. Yes, they were blown out last week, but before that they were a hot young team and the blowout loss could be a good sign for them this year. Teams are 37-19 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35 or more as dogs. Those teams tend to be angry, overlooked, and undervalued.

There really hasn’t been much of a line movement despite that huge loss, for some reason, as it’s gone from -4 to -3 (though 3 is a very, very key number), but they’re still undervalued. The fact remains that they were undervalued a week ago as well. It’s ridiculous that this line was -4 a week ago. As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Colts. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -2.5. When you average those out, you get a line significantly higher than this -3.

That being said, it’s not going to be a big play on Indianapolis because they’re actually in a really bad spot, blowout loss last week aside. Since 2008, teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs before being dogs, the so called sandwich game trend. The Colts obviously lost as dogs last week and now they’re favorites before going to Detroit, where they will be dogs, next week. For what it’s worth, teams coming off a blowout loss of 35 or more are 1-2 ATS in that time period, 10-15 ATS off a loss by 21 or more.

Meanwhile, the Bills are dogs before being favorites as they host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 years. When you combine that trend and the sandwich game trend, you get that teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008, including 34-13 ATS when all 3 games (the current game, your next game, and your opponent’s next game) all are non-divisional. The Bills are also rested off a Thursday game. Teams are 116-96 ATS on a Sunday coming off a Thursday game.

This game simply means different things to these two teams. For the Bills, this is a potential statement game with no distractions on the horizon. For the Colts, this is a chance to get an “easy” win to get things right before facing a tough opponent again next week. The fact that the Colts are coming off a blowout loss might make it less likely they overlook these Bills (not to mention all the ChuckStrong stuff) and they are definitely undervalued by this line, but it’s only a play small on the Colts, especially with the public all over them. The odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and seem due for a big week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 IND 7

Final update: No change.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 2 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 6-4

The Colts’ loss to the Patriots last week was a definite sign they haven’t quite arrived yet. They’ve beaten up on a bunch of bad teams and only have 1 win by more than a touchdown and that was against a 1-win Jacksonville team (who beat them earlier in the year). However, they have an easy schedule and a 2 game lead on everyone in the AFC except Cincinnati (5-5) for a playoff spot. They should make the playoffs, but once they get there, it doesn’t seem like they’re going to go anywhere.

Still, GM Ryan Grigson deserves the Executive of the Year award. No team turned over their roster from last year to this year more than the Colts. And it’s not just about Andrew Luck. I don’t even give him any credit for drafting Luck. 95 out of 100 people in his shoes would have taken him and the other 5 would have taken Robert Griffin and they wouldn’t have gone wrong either. It’s everything else. This team wasn’t a quarterback away or anything. They hadn’t drafted a Pro-Bowler since 2006 and Grigson came in this offseason and turned everything around.

And it wasn’t just personnel changes and it was the coaching staff, bringing in Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians. Unfortunately, Pagano hasn’t been able to be out there on the sideline in most of their games, but he deserves the credit for all of the work he did with this team in the offseason. You can’t just roll out of bed week 1 this much of an improved team. It takes a ton of work in the offseason and he’s also provided a huge emotional boost off the field. Arians, meanwhile, has been a major stabilizing force as their Interim Head Coach in Pagano’s absence and a strong offensive coordinator and play caller.

Studs

LT Anthony Castonzo: Allowed 1 sack on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

Duds

LG Joe Reitz: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

CB Josh Gordy: Allowed 5 catches for 65 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Darius Butler: Allowed 7 catches for 75 yards on 10 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Cory Redding: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against the Titans in Tennessee to being -3 in Jacksonville and +7 at home for Green Bay. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, including 5-1 since Chuck Pagano left the team for treatment. They’ve won 4 straight and their only loss since Pagano’s announcement was in New York against the Jets, when they were understandably flat right after their first emotional ChuckStrong victory.

They are once again underrated this week as 9 point dogs in New England. For reference, the Bills were -12 in New England last week and covered. That says Colts are just 3 points better than the Bills at most because the Patriots didn’t even cover last week. Huh? Using the yards per play differential method, the Patriots should just be 3 point favorites and even using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, the Patriots should just be 8 point favorites, even though the Patriots rank 2nd in that statistic.

The Colts shouldn’t be getting this many points against anyone, even though the Patriots do have Aqib Talib making his debut this week. The Colts also return Robert Mathis from injury this week. Mathis, their top pass rusher, has been pretty much out since week 4 (he played very sparingly week 9). They’ve been playing really well ever since they returned several starters defensively (Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, Pat Angerer). Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers are out, but their defense is still healthier than it’s been in recent weeks and Darius Butler’s strong performance at cornerback is helping cancel out the loss of Davis and Powers.

Besides, the Patriots tend to struggle when laying this many points at home. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is pretty incredible considering they’ve been a covering machine in general in the past 2 ½ years. In all other situations, they are a whopping 21-8 ATS. They’ve already failed to cover in all 3 of these instances this season, barely beating the Jets and Bills and losing to the Cardinals, 3 teams that are all significantly worse than the Colts. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants came to New England as 9 point dogs week 9 last year and won.

The Colts are also in a trio of good spots. First, they’re well rested coming off a Thursday Night Game. On Sunday, teams are 115-95 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Second, they’re dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-11 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. Next week, they host the lowly Bills. Third, the Patriots play the Jets on Thanksgiving next Thursday. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites (which the Patriots will be).

The Colts should be able to keep this one close and even if they don’t, there’s some backdoor potential with the Colts because of how bad the Patriots’ pass defense is, even with Talib. If the Colts are down 10-14 driving for a backdoor cover late this week, I’d rather have them than the Patriots, especially as bad as the Patriots’ pass defense is in the 4th quarter. I also don’t want to bet against this ChuckStrong momentum.

Sharps lean: NE 9 IND 5

Final update: No change.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +9 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 9 (+1)

Record: 6-3

I’ve never seen anything like this ChuckStrong movement in the NFL. It’s spread from the team shaving their heads to citizens of the city of Indianapolis and the surrounding area shaving their heads to even one of the cheerleaders agreeing to shave her head if they can raise $10,000 for cancer research (ballsy girl). This thing has almost become on the level of Lance Armstrong and Jim Valvano. I wouldn’t want to bet against this bunch going forward. Practically speaking, they’re 2 games up on a playoff spot, having won 5 of their last 6 games, including 4 in a row. They have games against Tennessee, Buffalo, and Kansas City, and Houston might be resting starters week 17. Their other 3 games (@ New England, @ Detroit, @ Houston) aren’t impossible either.

Studs

QB Andrew Luck: 18 of 26 for 227 yards and an interception, 4 drops, 111.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 30 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 7, 2 drops, 1 interception)

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

CB Darius Butler: Allowed 6 catches for 65 yards on 12 attempts, 2 interceptions, 5 solo tackles

SS Antoine Bethea: Allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

MLB Moise Fokou: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 1 stop

P Pat McAfee: 6 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 67.7 yards per kickoff, 19.3 opponents average starting position, 3 punts for 135 yards, 2 inside 20, no returns, 45.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Donald Brown: Rushed for 42 yards (25 after contact) on 14 carries, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

LG Joe Reitz: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 9 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 stop

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Cory Redding: Did not record a pressure on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 5-3

If the playoffs were to start today, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts would travel to the Denver Broncos to play Peyton Manning, who through 8 games, has exactly the same amount of passing yards as his replacement Luck, 2404. The Colts are 4-1 in their last 5, since Chuck Pagano had to leave the team to undergo treatment for Leukemia, with that one loss coming against the Jets in a game in which they were understandably flat off a huge emotional win at home against the Packers in the first ChuckStrong game. This team is playing with purpose and for something greater themselves. Anyone who watched Chuck Pagano’s post-game speech can’t help but believe in this team.

On a less poignant, more concrete note, the Colts may be 5-3, but they still are -32 in points differential and have yet to win by more than a touchdown, going 5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, something they can’t rely on going forward. However, their schedule is a joke from here on out, with games against Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Buffalo. If they win those, they’d just have to pull an upset against Detroit, New England or Houston, who they play twice (they could be resting starters week 17) to get to 10 wins. 9 might even do it in the AFC. They’re the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

Studs

QB Andrew Luck: 30 of 48 for 433 yards, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 4 drops, 106.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 50 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 13 of 19, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 1 touchdown)

LG Joe Reitz: Didn’t allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 5 passes for 108 yards on 7 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

MLB Moise Fukou: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

SS Antoine Bethea: 1 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, didn’t allow a completion on 2 attempts

MLB Kavell Conner: Didn’t allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

RB Vick Ballard: Rushed for 60 yards (33 after contact) on 16 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 4 attempts, 2 penalties, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 6 catches for 81 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

FS Tom Zbikowski: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts, 2 kickoff returns for 52 yards

LOLB Jerry Hughes: 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

RE Fili Moala: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put a big play against Blaine Gabbert as a favorite. Aside from the obvious Blaine Gabbert sucks stuff, divisional home dogs are 10-28 ATS before being divisional double digit road dogs since 1989. The Jaguars go to Houston next weekend.

At the same time, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, the classic sandwich game. Jacksonville lost to Detroit as dogs last week. Meanwhile, road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss are 50-25 ATS since 2002. The Colts lost at home as favorites to the Jaguars earlier this season.

Not only is that a good spot, things are completely different for these two teams than it was last time they played. The Colts have won 4 of 5 since, with that one loss coming in a game in which they were flat off a huge emotional win, the first ChuckStrong victory. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew is out for the Jaguars. He was 40% of their offense this year, in terms of yards from scrimmage, before his injury, which was actually down from the 47% he was last year, which was the highest by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974.

The Jaguars would have had no chance of winning last time without Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries against a banged up Colts defense, allowing them to win despite Blaine Gabbert going 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown. It’s worth noting that 80 of those yards and the touchdown game on one play to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work.

And it wasn’t just in that game. Maurice Jones-Drew was instrumental in the Jaguars’ two wins over the Colts last year, rushing for 283 yards and a score on 50 carries in those 2 games. Gabbert, meanwhile, combined to complete 25 of 40 for just 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in those two performances. As bad as the Colts’ were last year, Gabbert could have easily lost both of those games last year without MJD. In MJD’s absence, Rashad Jennings has rushed for a pathetic 148 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries in 3 games.

Speaking of the Colts’ previously banged up defense, they’re much healthier this time around than they were last time around, at least in the front 7, which is most instrumental to stopping the run. Both Dwight Freeney and Pat Angerer missed that game. They are now healthy, as are all of their front 7 starters. The Jaguars won’t be able to run it nearly as well as they did last time thanks to MJD’s injury and the Colts’ improved injury situation in the front 7. The Colts will be missing both starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers, but I have no faith in Gabbert to do much against them.

All that being said, this line has shifted from Jacksonville -1 to Indianapolis -3.5 in the last week. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s one of the biggest single week line shifts I’ve ever seen that was unrelated to a quarterback getting hurt or something like that. The good news is that all it really did was shift to where it should have been all along. The Colts are not overrated because of the line shift; they were just underrated last week, as they had been all season (-1 at home for Cleveland, +2 at home for Miami, -3 at home for Jacksonville, +7 at home for Green Bay, +1 at home for Minnesota, etc.)

We are actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts. The yards per play differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8. That’s not taking into account fully these two team’s momentum and injury situations. This isn’t because the Colts are particularly good in either statistic. In fact, they’re outside of the top-10 in each, ranking 13th in rate of sustaining drives and 24th in yards per play differential (despite their 5-3 record, they still have a significant negative points differential, -32).

It’s because the Jaguars are so terrible. No one is within 2.4% of their dead last rate of sustaining drives differential and they have the league’s worst yards per play differential as well. The Jaguars are also still in a bad spot. Teams are 34-60 ATS before being divisional double digit dogs since 2002. That makes sense. Teams tend to be distracted before having to play what’s probably the division leader.

The bad news, however, with the line shift, is that there’s still a ton of public action on the Colts. If you don’t know, the odds makers caught killed last week, losing 12 of 14 games, including all of the heavy leans. That’s not going to continue, at the very least. At the most, we might see some sketchy things happen in games with heavy leans. I hate the combination of the giant line shift, the heavy public action, and the odds makers needing to make money back.

It’s reckless to put any money on the Colts this week. The Jaguars suck as well and the Colts, in normal circumstances, should be the right side, in spite of the line movement, because we’re still getting line value with them. However, in this situation, if I had to, gun to my head, Jacksonville would be the pick. This would be a zero-unit pick if I did them.

Indianapolis will probably win because they’re a much better team, but we could easily see some sort of sketchy backdoor cover with the Colts winning by 3. It’s not smart to bet on the Colts this week. They’re also in a few bad spots as well. First, they’re coming off a home win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 30-51 ATS off a close win as home dogs since 2002, including 8-15 ATS as favorites. Since 1989, teams are 7-16 ATS as divisional road favorites off a close home win as dogs. Meanwhile, road favorites are 8-19 ATS since 1989 after 2 or more straight wins as a dog. Finally, teams with 1 win or fewer are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I do like the under a lot more than either side. The under is 70-53 on Thursday Nights. These tend to be ugly games.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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