Last week: 20 (-1)
Record: 1-2
On bye.
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Colts
Indianapolis Colts: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Record: 1-2
Last week: 20 (-1)
Andrew Luck doesn’t have any help. He played well, but losing at home to Jacksonville is embarrassing. The good news is that they outplayed the Jaguars, despite the loss, and they should be getting healthier defensively soon, after the bye. They also have a very easy schedule and Andrew Luck is also the real deal, which is the most important thing in what was probably going to be a lost season anyway. There’s hope for this team for the future, but this was more than a one year rebuild for a team that hasn’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2006.
Studs
RT Winston Justice: Did not allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts
CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle
Duds
LG Seth Olsen: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, 1 attempt, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts
RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 4 attempts
WR Donnie Avery: 2 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets on 53 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch
TE Coby Fleener: Did not catch a pass on 1 target on 22 pass plays, 1 drop,
MLB Kavell Conner: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
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Colts’ Austin Collie listed as probable, Dwight Freeney won’t play
Austin Collie suffered a concussion this preseason, his 4th in the last 21 months, but it was a minor one and it looked like he would be back for week 1. He practiced before week 1, but was not cleared and the same thing happened week 2. It’s very likely he just did not get clearance from a doctor. This week, he went through the same routine at the beginning of the week, but it looks like he’s finally been cleared as the Colts have listed him as probable on their injury list.
It’s unclear what his role is, but the uncertain makes both him and Donnie Avery poor fantasy options this week. It’s worth noting that, before the injury, Collie was Andrew Luck’s favorite target in the preseason and the last time he had a capable quarterback, he ranked 9th in the league in yards per route run in 2010, before getting hurt. He should be owned in all leagues and monitored because he could end up being startable in the future as the #2 option on a good passing attack.
Meanwhile, top pass rusher Dwight Freeney is once again expected to miss this week. He’s been out since leaving week 1 with a high ankle sprain. Fortunately, the Colts have a bye next so there’s a good chance he’ll be back after that for week 5. The Jaguars, their opponent this week, are missing two starters on the offensive line so the Colts should be able to pressure Blaine Gabbert, who tend to struggle under pressure, often, even without Freeney. They still have Robert Mathis and 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes showed some live in Freeney’s absence last week, with a sack and 2 quarterback hurries.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Week 3 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Colts are underrated.
One of the reasons they’ve remained underrated and because they’ve played underrated teams. I feel the Bears and Vikings are both underrated teams right now. The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have a ton of talent of anything, but Andrew Luck is the real deal. After a rough opener against a strong Chicago defense, Luck was incredibly impressive in his 2nd start, passing for 224 yards on 20 of 31, despite minimal help from his supporting cast. Under pressure on 15 of 37 drop backs, he took just 2 sacks, scrambled 4 times for 21 yards, and completed 6 of 9 for a touchdown and of the 3 incompletions, 1 was dropped, and on 1 he was hit as he threw. In fact, if you take non-targets out of the equation and add in drops (accuracy percentage), he would have been 24 of 29. Expect this team to at least win the 6 games Cam Newton did last year, with a 7 or 8 win season being more likely.
Given that, it’s pretty weird that the odds makers think that the Colts and Jaguars are equal (home field advantage is 3 points). The Jaguars figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4.
Indianapolis doesn’t have nearly the defense that Houston does, but Gabbert still cannot be trusted as a functional quarterback going forward, especially behind an offensive line that could be missing two starters once again. They’ve had the league’s 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. The one thing that has remained the same over their first 2 games is their horrible defensive play. Starting cornerback Derek Cox is expected back, but that won’t solve all of their problems. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith will also miss again this week. Andrew Luck and company shouldn’t have much problem moving the ball again this week. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential.
I still feel like there’s a lot of line value with the Colts. They’re not the same crappy team they were last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal and they’re also much better coached. The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be even worse than they were last year because the defense is no longer respectable and because Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, isn’t the same as last year. If Blaine Gabbert can be respectable against a bad defense again like he did in the opener, they could keep this one close, but I don’t really trust him to do that.
Plus, the Colts are trying to avenge a divisional loss of 10 points or fewer, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2010. The Colts are also going into a bye , Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. On top of that, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 ATS and SU week 3 since 2008.
Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)
Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 3 units
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Indianapolis Colts: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 20 (+0)
Record: 1-1
That’s the reason they drafted him #1. After a rough opener against a strong Chicago defense, Luck was incredibly impressive in his 2nd start, passing for 224 yards on 20 of 31, despite minimal help from his supporting cast. Under pressure on 15 of 37 drop backs, he took just 2 sacks, scrambled 4 times for 21 yards, and completed 6 of 9 for a touchdown and of the 3 incompletions, 1 was dropped, and on 1 he was hit as he threw. In fact, if you take non-targets out of the equation and add in drops (accuracy percentage), he would have been 24 of 29. Luck doesn’t have a ton of help, but he has a very easy schedule, so expect this team to at least win the 6 games Cam Newton did last year, with a 7 or 8 win season being more likely.
QB Andrew Luck: 20 of 31 for 224 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 spikes, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 105.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 37 drop backs (2 sacks, 4 scrambles, 6 of 9, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown)
WR Donnie Avery: 9 catches for 111 yards on 10 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch
CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 7 catches for 66 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 4 stops
MLB Kavell Conner: Allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes
LE Cory Redding: 2 quarterback pressures on 37 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops
LOLB Jerry Hughes: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles and 2 stops
K Adam Vinatieri: 3/3 FG (26, 45, 53)
Duds
LG Seth Olsen: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, 2 yards on 3 attempts
RG Trai Essex: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts
LT Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts
RB Mewelde Moore: -2 yards (0 yards after contact) on 1 carry, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop.
WR Kris Adams: No catches on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps
NT Antonio Johnson: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles
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Colts rule Dwight Freeney out, Austin Collie doubtful
Dwight Freeney left last week’s game against the Bears with an ankle injury and even though Head Coach Chuck Pagano said earlier this week that they expected him back “sooner as opposed to later,” he is currently listed as out for this week’s game against the Vikings and Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star says that it will probably be a “couple of weeks” according to what he’s “hearing.” In his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes had a pair of quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps. He’ll get the start again this week.
Meanwhile, Austin Collie is unlikely to go, even though there was a lot of optimism with his situation earlier in the week. Collie reportedly felt great before last week’s game, but they held him out as a precaution. He practiced fully on Wednesday, but it sounds like he had a setback on Thursday or something. Still, even after Thursday, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians made it sound like he’d be ready to go, saying “He could line up anywhere. He has the position flexibility to do anything. He would start out wide and go from there.” However, they eventually listed him as doubtful.
Between this and Freeney’s situation, it’s becoming increasingly tough to trust the Colts’ new coaching staff’s word on injuries. The official injury report seems to be the only thing that’s reliable. In Collie’s absence, Donnie Avery will start again, while Kris Adams will once again line up in the slot. Avery caught 3 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the opener, while Adams caught 2 passes for 26 yards. Don’t trust any Colts receiver in fantasy aside from Wayne until Collie returns. For now, assume Collie is out week 3 and indefinitely until you hear otherwise.
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Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: Week 2 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).
Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Chicago. Chicago is also one of my underrated teams. In fact, I think they might be the best team in football. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.
There’s no shame in losing to the Bears in Chicago, even in blowout fashion. That doesn’t mean the Colts are going to have a terrible season. They’ll probably still get at least the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal; he just had a very tough test to start his career. They won’t make the playoffs or anything and Dwight Freeney is expected out for this contest, but, at the very least they’re not worse than the Vikings, who needed a late comeback to even beat the Jaguars in Minnesota. In Indianapolis, this line should be about -3 or -4 (3 points for home field advantage. Instead it’s +1.5. Ordinarily, I would think this could be a trap line, but the action is pretty equal on both sides. There’s just considerable line value with the Colts.
The Vikings don’t really deserve to be road dogs over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finished with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Vikings aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 1.5, which would translate to -7.5 in Minnesota. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.
On top of that, this could be a seen as a breather contest for the Vikings, seeing as they have to go home and play the 49ers next week. The trend isn’t as strong as it is for sandwich games (favorites before AND after being dogs), but favorites before being dogs are 90-109 ATS since 2010 and 173-223 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams are typically flatter in easier games before tougher games.
This is one of my favorite plays of the week. I’m pretty confident that Luck will get his first NFL win here at home against a Minnesota defense that just made Blaine Gabbert look like a functional NFL quarterback. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread +1.5 (-110) and one on the money line at +110, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of games in the NFL, so it’s just not worth the extra +20 to protection against a 1 point Minnesota win.
Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)
Indianapolis Colts 27 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110 5 units
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +1.5 (-110) 0 units
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Indianapolis Colts: 2012 Week 2 Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 18 (-2)
Record: 0-1
No shame in losing to the Bears, who might be the best team in football. I had the Colts and Bears both as underrated teams going into the season and now I think the Colts might be even more underrated after a big loss to an underrated opponent. Seriously, how the hell is this team home dogs for the Vikings? How is any team home dogs for the Vikings?
Studs
WR Reggie Wayne: 9 catches for 135 yards on 18 targets, 1 interception when thrown to, 4.3 YAC per catch on 49 pass plays
P Mat McAfee: 4 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 69.0 yards per kickoff, average start on 21.0, 5 punts, 51.4 yards per punt, 1 return for 23 yards, 42.8 net yards per punt
Duds
QB Andrew Luck: 23 of 44 for 309 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 1 batted pass, 3 drops, 64.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured 15 times
CB Vontae Davis: Allowed 6 completions for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops on 30 run snaps
ROLB Jerry Hughes: 2 quarterback pressures on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle on 28 run snaps
LE Cory Redding: 1 quarterback hit, 2 quarterback pressures on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 0 tackles or stops on 24 run snaps
RE Fili Moala: 1 quarterback pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop on 25 run snaps
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Colts expect Austin Collie to be a game time decision
Austin Collie suffered his 4th concussion in 21 months last month, but it was of the minor variety and he’s been practicing all week. However, he has yet to be cleared to participate in game action and if he isn’t by game time tomorrow, he won’t be allowed to play so it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision and even that might be optimistic. You obviously want to be cautious for this type of injury, even minor ones, and he won’t be cleared unless he’s definitely able to go, so it doesn’t sound like he will be. He sounds like a pretty good bet for week 2 though since he’s been practicing. Reggie Wayne will get a bump in fantasy this week, even against Chicago’s stout passing defense, while the rest of Indianapolis’ receiving corps is off limits. Either Donnie Avery or 3rd round rookie TY Hilton would get the start in place of Collie.
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Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you’ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.
This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league’s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz’ where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.
Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.
So who am I going with? Well, it’s not an easy decision, but I’m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck’s 1st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.
Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn’t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn’t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don’t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there’s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I’m taking the home team for a small bet.
Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17
Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit
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Football Fan Spot 